A STAMP-Game model for accident analysis in oil and gas industry

Accidents in engineered systems are usually generated by complex socio-technical factors.It is beneficial to investigate the increasing complexity and coupling of these factors from the perspective of system safety.Based on system and control theories,System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes(STAMP)is a widely recognized approach for accident analysis.In this paper,we propose a STAMP-Game model to analyze accidents in oil and gas storage and transportation systems.Stakeholders in accident analysis by STAMP can be regarded as players of a game.Game theory can,thus,be adopted in accident analysis to depict the competition and cooperation between stakeholders.Subsequently,we established a game model to study the strategies of both supervisory and supervised entities.The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed game model allows for identifying the effectiveness deficiency of the supervisory entity,and the safety and protection altitudes of the supervised entity.The STAMP-Game model can generate quantitative parameters for supporting the behavior and strategy selections of the supervisory and supervised entities.The quantitative data obtained can be used to guide the safety improvement,to reduce the costs of safety regulation violation and accident risk.

Analysis of Potential Failure Modes in an Assembly Line by Fuzzy Expert Systems

The failure modes and effects analysis （FMEA） is widely applied in manufacturing industries in various phases of the product life cycle to evaluate the system, its design and processes for failures that can occur. The FMEA team often demonstrates different opinions and these different types of opinions are very difficult to incorporate into the FMEA by the traditional risk priority number model. In this paper, for each of the Occurrence, Severity and Detectivity parameters a fuzzy set is defined and the opinion of each FMEA team members is considered. These opinions are considered simultaneously with weights that are given to each individual based on their skills and experience levels. In addition, the opinion of the costumer is considered for each of the FMEA parameters. Then, the Risk Priority Numbers （RPN） is calculated using a Multi Input Single Output （MISO） fuzzy expert system. The proposed model is applied for prioritizing the failures of Peugeot 206 Engine assembly line in IKCo （Iran Khodro Company）.

Accuracy analysis of a single-fault Markov model for FADEC system

Time-limited dispatching(TLD)analysis of the full authority digital engine control(FADEC)systems is an important part of the aircraft system safety analysis and a necessary task for the certification of commercial aircraft and aeroengines.In the time limited dispatch guidance document ARP5107B,a single-fault Markov model(MM)approach is proposed for TLD analysis.However,ARP5107B also requires that the loss of thrust control(LOTC)rate error calculated by applying the single-fault MM must be less than 5%when performing airworthiness certification.Firstly,the sources of accuracy errors in three kinds of MM are analyzed and specified through a case study of the general FADEC system,and secondly a two-fault MM considering maintenance policy is established through analyzing and calculating the expected repair time when two related faults happen.Finally,a specific FADEC system is given to study on the influence factors of accuracy error in the single-fault MM,and the results show that the accuracy error of the single-fault MM decreases with the increase of short or long prescribed dispatch time,and the range values of short time(ST)and long time(LT)are determined to satisfy the requirement of accuracy error within 5%.

Research on Establish an Efficient Log Analysis System with Kafka and Elastic Search

Search logs in a timely and efficient manner are an important part of SRE (Site Reliability Engineer). Logs help us solve the problems during our development work. In this paper, we will introduce you a way how to build an efficient logs analysis system based on kafka and Elastic Search. We hope you can learn something through the iteration of the Version and get some inspiration with your own log analysis system.

Importance Analysis of a Multi-state System Based on Direct Partial Logic Derivatives and Multi-valued Decision Diagrams

Importance analysis quantifies the critical degree of individual component. Compared with the traditional binary state system,importance analysis of the multi-state system is more aligned with the practice. Because the multi-valued decision diagram( MDD) can reflect the relationship between the components and the system state bilaterally, it was introduced into the reliability calculation of the multi-state system( MSS). The building method,simplified criteria,and path search and probability algorithm of MSS structure function MDD were given,and the reliability of the system was calculated. The computing methods of importance based on MDD and direct partial logic derivatives( DPLD) were presented. The diesel engine fuel supply system was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that not only the probability of the system in each state can be easily obtained,but also the influence degree of each component and its state on the system reliability can be obtained,which is conducive to the condition monitoring and structure optimization of the system.

The System Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Rock Slopes

The principal of preferred plane analysis is a new research view and model of rock slope engineering geology. It advocates that the rock slope stability, boundary conditions and failure model are controlled by preferred planes. Therefore, the problem of slope stability evaluation can be converted into the search for preferred planes and determination of preferred separating bodies. The organic combination of the deterministic model and the indeterministic model can be realized by applying the systems engineering principle and the research model and method of reliability analysis in the quantitative evaluation and prediction of rock slope stability. Finally, the paper presents the case studies of slopes of the Yangtze Gorge Project and the Ma'anshan openpit mine.

A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks （ BNs）. In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. In order to use fuzzy information, an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors. The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge, and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation, modifying and maintaining a BN model. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking, or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness, vagueness and ignorance. This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. Specifically, the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values, but also the a-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Off-loading （FPSO） unit and the anthorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

INTEGRATED ANALYSIS APPROACHES TO ROCK MECHANICS PROBLEMS

In order to effectively cope with exponent increase of the complexity faced to the rock mechanics analysis problems and the large incompatibility existing between the information level required to model the rock mass and engineering and our obtainable information level at hand,the integrated approaches with intelligent characters are proposed. Many previous standard methods,such as precedent type analysis,rock classification,analytic method stress-based,basic numerical methods (BEM,FEM,DEM,hybrid),and their extended numerical methods (fully coupled) to be developed,can be selected respectively or integrated accordingly. It is alternative to develop basic/fully integrated system,and internet-based approaches. These novel methods can also be selected or integrated each other or with the standard methods to perform rock mechanics analysis. Some key techniques to develop these alternative methods are discussed. It may focus in future on developing fully integrated systems and internet-based approaches. Developing an environmental,virtual facility/space shall be firstly done for this collaborative research on internet.

Computation Method for the Real-Time Control Problems in Differential-Algebraic Systems

In this paper, a real-time computation method for the control problems in differential-algebraic systems is presented. The errors of the method are estimated, and the relation between the sampling stepsize and the controlled errors is analyzed. The stability analysis is done for a model problem, and the stability region is ploted which gives the range of the sampling stepsizes with which the stability of control process is guaranteed.

Prototype Engineering Test Platform of ITER Magnet Gravity Support

ITER magnet gravity support （GS） has been redesigned as a structure of pre- assembled nmlti-flexible plates instead of the original welded structure. In the past several years, engineering tests of the new structure have been proposed. A prototype engineering test plat- form is being developed. In order to apply the loads/load combinations onto the test mock-up, seven hydraulic bolt tensioners in three directions have been applied to simulate various loads （forces and moments）, through which the deformation of bolts, flexible plates and clamp blocks, the stress distribution in the flexible plates, the friction between the contact surface, etc. can be monitored/tested. The measurement and control system includes seven sets of synchronization controller, a 16-channel strain gauge, 25 sets of displacement sensors, etc. Principles of EDC220 digital controller and development of multi-channel control software are also demonstrated.

Probabilistic Rationale of Actions for Artificial Intelligence Systems Operating in Uncertainty Conditions

The approach for probabilistic rationale of artificial intelligence systems actions is proposed.It is based on an implementation of the proposed interconnected ideas 1-7 about system analysis and optimization focused on prognostic modeling.The ideas may be applied also by using another probabilistic models which supported by software tools and can predict successfulness or risks on a level of probability distribution functions.The approach includes description of the proposed probabilistic models,optimization methods for rationale actions and incremental algorithms for solving the problems of supporting decision-making on the base of monitored data and rationale robot actions in uncertainty conditions.The approach means practically a proactive commitment to excellence in uncertainty conditions.A suitability of the proposed models and methods is demonstrated by examples which cover wide applications of artificial intelligence systems.

Research on Integrated Analysis Method for Equipment and Tactics Based on Intervention Strategy Discussion

As the increase of the complexity of the information warfare,its intervention strategy needs to be designed in an integrated environment.However,the current research always breaks the internal relation between equipment and tactics,and it is difficult to meet the requirements of their integrated analysis.In this paper,the research status quo of the integrated analysis about equipment and tactics is discussed first,some shortages of the current methods are summarized then,and an evolvement mechanism of the integrated analysis for equipment and tactics is given finally.Based on these,a framework of integrated analysis is proposed.This method's effectiveness is validated by an example.

A Functional Data Modeling Tool for Engineering Applications

The fact that most engineering applications are developed by engineers themselves rather than computer professionals calls for the data modeling methods to be powerful enough to represent complex engineering phenomena, but simple enough to use. A data modeling method which can help engineers to write C++ code with high quality is introduced.

Process of Requirement Analysis Link to Software Development

This paper is giving an overview of the process of requirement analysis for software development. Here I have discussed about key parts in requirement analysing, gathering relevant materials, functional analysis and allocations, how to improve and make a quality process and also document development as well and many more which relates to requirement analysis process. The scope of this study is not a generalized approach but rather discuss through specific cases such as like Dutch flower case. It describes the main areas of requirement process in practice, and highlights. I hope that readers will find this paper useful in guiding them toward the knowledge and resources they needed.

Reliability Sensitivity Analysis for Location Scale Family

Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis is proposed. In this method, the location parameter is assumed as a function of relevant environment variables while the scale parameter is assumed as an unknown positive constant. Then, the location parameter function is constructed by using the method of radial basis function. Using the varied environment test data, the log-likelihood function is transformed to a generalized linear expression by describing the indicator as Poisson variable. With the generalized linear model, the maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients are obtained. With the reliability model, the reliability sensitivity is obtained. An instance analysis shows that the method is feasible to analyze the dynamic variety characters of reliability along with environment factors and is straightforward for engineering application.

Functional Analysis of Ground Deceleration Scenario for Civil Aircraft

This paper introduces the approaches of using Model-based System Engineering(MBSE) for the functional analysis of civil aircraft and describes the details of a Rhapsody model for ground deceleration scenario. Describe system by functional modeling,to instruct requirement analysis,function analysis of black-box and white-box in large-scale civil aircraft,exploring practice of MBSE in highly complex system of civil aircraft.

基于铁路带状北斗CORS的网络RTK测量精度分析

为研究和拓展北斗导航系统在铁路工程测量中的应用,利用BDS系统技术优势解决山区铁路测量定位难题。基于某山区铁路建立带状北斗连续运行参考站系统(以下简称“北斗CORS系统”)和高精度位置服务云平台。采用国产多星多频测量型接收机进行控制点数据采集工作,分别对比基于北斗CORS系统的单BDS、单GPS以及GNSS混合星历网络RTK观测数据以及传统基站形式的RTK观测数据的测量精度。结果表明:(1)铁路带状北斗高精度位置服务云平台网络RTK定位功能稳定可靠;(2)基于北斗CORS系统的网络RTK测量方法仅需进行高程曲面拟合,按3s采集的成果精度即可满足铁路测量规范中网络RTK中线测量、断面测量、施工放样、像控测量的精度要求,测量时应尽量采用同类型的设备并采用同精度观测方法以保证重复测量精度,也可通过增加观测时长、在局部区域利用既有高程控制点做高程校正的方式提高测量精度;(3)基于北斗CORS系统的网络RTK测量平面和高程内符合精度限差可分别设定为1.7 cm和2 cm,外符合精度可分别设定为2.2 cm和5 cm。

煤矿安全事故的综合致因模型

为了系统研究导致煤矿安全事故的人机环因素,结合煤矿实际,将设备因素、环境因素与人因分析和分类系统(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System,HFACS)相结合,构建了煤矿安全事故的“弓弦箭”致因模型。其中,弓弦由设备因素11项、人因因素17项和环境因素11项的致因因素构成,箭表示发生不同人员伤亡数量、不同经济损失的安全事故,利用该模型可以综合描述煤矿安全事故发生的原因以及事故的后果。以“弓弦箭”致因模型为基础,借助蚁群聚类及Ucinet-netdraw方法,分别对100起典型煤矿安全事故进行分析研究。结果显示:(1)在统计的100起事故中,致因因素总频数为803,其中人因因素最高为644,占比80.2%,设备因素次之为92,占比11.5%,环境因素最少为67,占比8.3%;(2)以聚类数为4,最大迭代次数为1000,蚂蚁个数为100,阈值为0.9,蒸发率为0.1进行蚁群聚类分析,得到4类煤矿安全事故致因因素,表明煤矿安全事故是由设备因素、环境因素和人因因素交织作用产生,其中人因因素是最重要的致因因素,且操作者的不安全行为技能差错、决策差错、知觉差错和违反规章制度表现出一定的独立性;(3)Ucinet-netdraw分析显示煤矿安全事故的关键致因路径为:“管理过程漏洞”→“监督不充分”→“个人准备状态”→“违反规章制度”。

HFACS-MI改进模型在危险化学品仓储事故人因分析中的应用

为了研究危险化学品仓储事故的关键人因,通过人因分析与分类系统-煤矿(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System-Mine,HFACS-MI)改进模型从员工的不安全行为、影响不安全行为的前提条件、监督行为、组织影响和企业外部因素5个层次系统地分析65起危险化学品仓储事故,并运用卡方检验和让步比分析了产生不安全行为的原因和各层次间的内在关系。结果表明,外部管理、组织过程、监督不充分、个人因素、技能差错和违规是导致危险化学品仓储事故发生的重要因素。HFACS-MI改进模型上下层级的人为因素间存在显著的因果关系,且主要的危险化学品仓储事故致因路径共有5条,其中“外部管理因素—组织过程漏洞—监督不充分—个人因素—违规”是最关键的致因路径。改进的HFACS-MI模型可以有效分析危险化学品仓储事故人因因素。

非通航孔桥梁防船撞系统恒阻力装置研究

为给非通航孔桥梁防船撞系统拦截过程提供稳定持续的阻力,提出了一种利用耗能索持续协同大变形和连续破断输出稳定阻力的恒阻力装置。恒阻力装置由主绳、耗能索、破断环及其它连接件组成,与自适应浮筒、拦截网、系泊浮体等装置共同组成非通航孔桥梁自适应恒阻力船舶拦阻系统,有效拦截偏航船舶,保护非通航孔桥梁和来撞船舶的安全。通过理论分析研究该装置的阻力输出特性,建立该装置的阻力输出力学模型与计算方法,并通过拉伸破坏试验验证计算方法的准确性,进一步对影响装置阻力输出的耗能索的初始间距、长度及伸长率进行分析。结果表明:恒阻力装置能够有效地输出稳定且持续的阻力;耗能索初始间距越小,恒阻力装置阻力输出越大,阻力输出越稳定;耗能索长度或伸长率越大,恒阻力装置阻力输出越大,阻力输出越稳定。该装置已应用于力洋港大桥非通航孔区桥梁防撞中,有效地保护了大桥的安全。