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淮河流域东北部一次异常特大暴雨的数值模拟研究Ⅰ:结果检验和β中尺度对流系统的特征分析 被引量:14
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作者 王亦平 陆维松 +1 位作者 潘益农 王元 《气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2008年第2期167-176,共10页
在2000年12号台风(Prapiroon)影响期间,其外围对淮河流域东北部造成了一次罕见的特大暴雨,暴雨中心响水24h降水量达到800mm。文中所用的模式是俄克拉荷马大学风暴分析和预测中心研制的一个三维非静力可压缩数值区域预报模式ARPS(V5.2)... 在2000年12号台风(Prapiroon)影响期间,其外围对淮河流域东北部造成了一次罕见的特大暴雨,暴雨中心响水24h降水量达到800mm。文中所用的模式是俄克拉荷马大学风暴分析和预测中心研制的一个三维非静力可压缩数值区域预报模式ARPS(V5.2)。采用了3层单向嵌套网格,Domain1中心取为(27.5°N,117.5°E),格距45km,格点数为75×75;Do-main2中心取为(31.5°N,119.5°E),格距15km,格点数为140×140;Domain3中心取为(33.5°N,119.5°E),格距5km,格点数为180×180;垂直方向分为35层,垂直格距为625m。所利用的资料为:2000年8月29—31日每日4个时次(00、06、12、18时)1°×1°的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及713雷达资料、GMS-5红外云图、探空报、地面加密资料。物理过程选用简单冰相方案,Kain和Fritsch积云参数化方案。对逐时的卫星云图、713雷达图像进行数值反演,结合探空资料反演出暴雨中深对流系统的水汽三维分布情况,通过三维同化系统ADAS处理,同化初始场和侧边界条件,再用ARPS模式进行数值积分,从8月29日08时开始到31日08时结束,积分48h。并结合雷达资料、红外云图、探空报、地面加密资料等对数值模拟结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:ARPS较好地模拟了在台风移动的左前方、在高空槽与副高之间出现的中尺度强暴雨区,模拟降水区及暴雨中心位置与实况较为一致。利用模拟大气中的水物质模拟了雷达回波,与实际雷达回波进行了对比分析,揭示了该过程中β中尺度对流系统的演变特征,4条对流带的交汇点在响水附近。并将模式模拟的T-lgp图与实际T-lgp图进行了对比分析,揭示了该次暴雨过程的不稳定性。持续的高空风垂直切变为对流系统的发展提供动能,造成对流系统斜压发展,有利于降水集中在某一固定的地点。由于模拟结果与实况较为接近,因此可以利用模拟结果作为对该暴雨过程作进一步研究的基础。 展开更多
关键词 特大暴雨 数值模拟 三维同化 雷达回波 T-logp图
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Numerical Simulation of a Torrential Rain Event in the Northeast of Huaihe Basin.PartⅠ:Model Verification and Analysis of MCSs
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作者 王亦平 潘益农 +1 位作者 王元 陆维松 《Acta meteorologica Sinica》 SCIE 2009年第2期223-232,共10页
A torrential rain event accompanying Typhoon Prapiroon occurred in 2000, with 24-h rainfall amount reaching 800 mm near the typhoon center. This event is simulated by the nonhydrostatic mesoscaie model ARPS (V5.2), ... A torrential rain event accompanying Typhoon Prapiroon occurred in 2000, with 24-h rainfall amount reaching 800 mm near the typhoon center. This event is simulated by the nonhydrostatic mesoscaie model ARPS (V5.2), with thriple one-way nested-grids. Grid spacings of 45, 15, and 5 km are chosen for the three nested domains. The corresponding grid sizes are 75×75, 140× 140, and 180× 180, respectively. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, radar echoes, and CMS-5 satellite images are assimilated with the ARPS model initially using a 3-D data assimilation system-ADAS. The simple ice phase scheme and the Kain- Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme axe used. There are 35 layers in the vertical, with a vertical grid spacing of about 625 m. The integration is performed up to 48 h from 0800 BT 29 to 0800 BT 31 August 2000. Compared with radar echoes, GMS-5 satellite images, and intensive surface observations, the results show that the heavy rain area down between the 500-hPa trough and the subtropical high in the left-front of Prapiroon is well simulated by the model ARPS, and the simulated rainfall centers are consistent with observations. A comparison of the radar echoes with these retrieved from the simulated hydrometeors reveals that there are meso-β scale convective systems that exhibit distinctive characteristics, and there are four convective belts converging in the vicinity of Xiangshui, where the maximum rainfall is observed. A further comparision of skew T-lgp diagrams from simulated and observed data demonstrates significant instability in this torrential rain process. The persistent vertical wind shear provides kinetic energy for the development of the MCSs, hence promoting the baroclinic development of convective cells, and the concentration of heavy rain at the specific location. The consistency between model results and observations encourages a further study of the torrential rain event using the simulation data. 展开更多
关键词 torrential rain numerical simulation 3-D data assimilation radar echo skew t-lgp diagram
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