In this paper, based on the Science and Technology Statistics in Beijing Statistical Yearbook, grey theory is used to study the relationship among S&T (Science and Technology) activities personnel, R&D (resear...In this paper, based on the Science and Technology Statistics in Beijing Statistical Yearbook, grey theory is used to study the relationship among S&T (Science and Technology) activities personnel, R&D (research and development) personnel FTE (Full Time Equivalent), intramural expenditure for R&D and Patent Application Amount. According to the grey correlation coefficient, screening of grey GM(1,N) prediction variables, the grey prediction model is established. Meanwhile, time series model and GM(1,1) model are established for patent applications and R&D personnel equivalent FTE. By comparing the simulating results with the real data, the absolute relative error of prediction models is less than 10%. The results of the prediction model are tested. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, the mean values of the predicted values of the two models are brought into the GM(1,N) model to predict the number of scientific and technical personnel in Beijing during 2015-2025. Forecast results show that the number of science and technology personnel in Beijing will grow with exponential growth trend in the next ten years, which has a certain reference value for predicting the science and technology activities and formulating the policy in Beijing.展开更多
The MGM(1,m,N)model is an effective grey multi-variate forecasting model that considers multiple system characteristic sequences affected by multiplefactors.Nevertheless,it isregularly inaccurate in the application Th...The MGM(1,m,N)model is an effective grey multi-variate forecasting model that considers multiple system characteristic sequences affected by multiplefactors.Nevertheless,it isregularly inaccurate in the application This is because the model requires a strong correlation between the system characteristic sequences That reduces the applicability of the model.To solve this problem,this paper proposes a novel multi-variate grey model.This model does not require a certain correlation between system characteristic sequences and has higher applicability Through numerical integration,a two-point trapezoidal formula,and a recursive method,thetime-response expressions ofthetwo model forms are obtained Some properties of the proposed model are further discussed Finally,the validity of the proposed model is evaluated by using two real cases related to China's invention patent development.Theresultsshow that the novel models outperformother models inbothsimulation and prediction applications.展开更多
文摘In this paper, based on the Science and Technology Statistics in Beijing Statistical Yearbook, grey theory is used to study the relationship among S&T (Science and Technology) activities personnel, R&D (research and development) personnel FTE (Full Time Equivalent), intramural expenditure for R&D and Patent Application Amount. According to the grey correlation coefficient, screening of grey GM(1,N) prediction variables, the grey prediction model is established. Meanwhile, time series model and GM(1,1) model are established for patent applications and R&D personnel equivalent FTE. By comparing the simulating results with the real data, the absolute relative error of prediction models is less than 10%. The results of the prediction model are tested. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, the mean values of the predicted values of the two models are brought into the GM(1,N) model to predict the number of scientific and technical personnel in Beijing during 2015-2025. Forecast results show that the number of science and technology personnel in Beijing will grow with exponential growth trend in the next ten years, which has a certain reference value for predicting the science and technology activities and formulating the policy in Beijing.
基金Supported bythe National Natural Science Foundation of China(71701105)the Major Program of the National Social Science Fund of China(17ZDA092)+1 种基金the Key Research Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Universities of Jiangsu Province(2018SJZDI111)Key Projects of Open Topics of Jiangsu Productivity Society in2020(JSSCL2020A004)。
文摘The MGM(1,m,N)model is an effective grey multi-variate forecasting model that considers multiple system characteristic sequences affected by multiplefactors.Nevertheless,it isregularly inaccurate in the application This is because the model requires a strong correlation between the system characteristic sequences That reduces the applicability of the model.To solve this problem,this paper proposes a novel multi-variate grey model.This model does not require a certain correlation between system characteristic sequences and has higher applicability Through numerical integration,a two-point trapezoidal formula,and a recursive method,thetime-response expressions ofthetwo model forms are obtained Some properties of the proposed model are further discussed Finally,the validity of the proposed model is evaluated by using two real cases related to China's invention patent development.Theresultsshow that the novel models outperformother models inbothsimulation and prediction applications.
