准确估算区域降水对水文过程评价和水资源管理意义重大。为评估TRMM 3B42V7降水产品在海河流域南系的估算精度及其在土壤和水评估模型(Soil and Water Assessment Tool,SWAT)中的适用性,利用28个气象站降水观测数据(2007-2016年)和101...准确估算区域降水对水文过程评价和水资源管理意义重大。为评估TRMM 3B42V7降水产品在海河流域南系的估算精度及其在土壤和水评估模型(Soil and Water Assessment Tool,SWAT)中的适用性,利用28个气象站降水观测数据(2007-2016年)和101个雨量站观测数据(2010-2016年)开展研究。研究表明:站点尺度上,3B42V7降水产品对月降水估算的均方根误差小于15 mm,平均误差小于8.5 mm;在湿润季节的估算精度更好。流域尺度上,日降水估算精度较差,相关系数小于0.6。分区尺度上,3B42V7能够很好地捕捉到不同等级降水强度,但对微量降雨有所低估;山区和平原的年降水量均出现高估现象,平原区较为突出;此外,3B42V7能够较好地捕捉到研究区内极端降水的时间和空间分布。分2种情景进行水文模拟,利用月平均流量对模型进行校准和验证,在情景Ⅰ中,验证期模拟结果较好,决定系数在0.56~0.96之间,纳什效率系数在-11.09~0.94之间。TRMM 3B42V7可为海河流域及其类似区域的水资源管理提供参考。展开更多
Understanding the effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on regional climate is critical for achieving land use system sustainability and global climate change mitigation. However, the quantitative analysis of the con...Understanding the effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on regional climate is critical for achieving land use system sustainability and global climate change mitigation. However, the quantitative analysis of the contribution of LUCC to the changes of climatic factors, such as precipitation & temperature(P&T), is lacking. In this study, we combined statistical methods and the gravity center model simulation to quantify the effects of long-term LUCC on P&T in the Songnen Plain(SNP) of Northeast China from 1980–2018. The results showed the spatiotemporal variability of LUCC. For example, paddy field had the largest increase(15 166.43 km2) in the SNP, followed by dry land, while wetland had the largest decrease(19 977.13 km;) due to the excessive agricultural utilization and development. Annual average precipitation decreased at a rate of –9.89 mm per decade, and the warming trends were statistically significant with an increasing rate of 0.256°C per decade in this region since 1980. The model simulation revealed that paddy field, forestland, and wetland had positive effects on precipitation, which caused their gravity centers to migrate towards the same direction accompanied by the center of precipitation gravity, while different responses were seen for building land, dry land and unused land. These results indicated that forestland had the largest influence on the increase of precipitation compared with the other land use types.The responses in promoting the temperature increase differed significantly, being the highest in building land, and the lowest in forestland. In general, the analysis of regional-scale LUCC showed a significant reduction of wetland, and the increases in building land and cropland contributed to a continuous drying and rapid warming in the SNP.展开更多
为探究高分辨率多卫星联合反演IMERG(Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM)卫星降水产品在大汶河流域的监测精度与适用性,以2001~2019年较长系列地面雨量站实测数据为基准,采用探测率、虚报率等11个指标,对IMERG系列Early、L...为探究高分辨率多卫星联合反演IMERG(Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM)卫星降水产品在大汶河流域的监测精度与适用性,以2001~2019年较长系列地面雨量站实测数据为基准,采用探测率、虚报率等11个指标,对IMERG系列Early、Late、Final产品在研究区的降水监测能力进行评价。结果表明:(1)日、月、年尺度下,Final产品的精度最好,Early、Late两个产品的精度基本一致,在时间上,IMERG系列产品均能较好反映流域降水的年际变化与年内分配;在空间上,表现为整体高估研究区降水量,低估泰山区域降水量(相对偏差小于-20%)。(2)在不同强度日降水探测能力方面,IMERG系列产品间差异不大,仅对小雨有较好的命中率(探测率>0.6)。各产品探测能力一般,整体表现为误报率较高(误报率>0.7)、探测率与关键成功率较低,同时,随着降水强度的增大,各产品探测能力呈下降趋势。(3) IMERG系列产品均具有一定的极端降水监测能力,Final产品评价结果更优、表现更为稳定,在参与评价的5个指数中,Final产品有4个指数结果最优,Late产品有1个最优,Early产品则有4个指数结果优于Late产品。总体上,IMERG系列数据均能较好反映大汶河流域(除泰山区域)降水的时空分布与极端降水情况,Final产品整体精度最高,Early、Late产品精度较为接近,其中,Early产品在极端降水监测中的表现好于Late产品,而对不同强度日降水事件的监测能力差于Late产品。展开更多
Drought is one of the most frequent and widespread natural disasters and has tremendous agricultural,ecological,societal,and economic impacts.Among the many drought indices,the standardized precipitation index(SPI)bas...Drought is one of the most frequent and widespread natural disasters and has tremendous agricultural,ecological,societal,and economic impacts.Among the many drought indices,the standardized precipitation index(SPI)based on monthly precipitation data is simple to calculate and has multiscale characteristics.To evaluate the applicability of high spatiotemporal resolution satellite precipitation products for drought monitoring,based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)products and station-based meteorological data,the SPI values at different time scales(1,3,6,and 12 months)were calculated for the period of 1998-2016 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MLRYRB).The temporal correlations show that there is a high degree of consistency between calculations at the different time scales(1,3,6 and 12 months)based on the two data sources and that the amplitude of fluctuations decreases with increasing time scale.In addition,the Mann-Kendall(MK)test method was applied to analyze the trends from 1998 to 2016,and the results suggest that wetting trends clearly prevailed over drying trends.Moreover,a correlation analysis of the two data sources based on 60 meteorological stations was performed with the SPI values at different time scales.The correlation coefficients at the short time scales(1,3,and 6 months)are all greater than 0.7,and the correlation coefficient at the long time scale(12 months)is greater than 0.5.In summary,the results demonstrate that the TRMM 3B43 precipitation product provides a new data source that can be used for reliable drought monitoring in the MLRYRB.展开更多
地表反照率是陆面过程中一个重要的物理量,其变化直接影响地表能量的收支状况,进而可以影响气温和降水等其它气象要素。本文利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,通过两组数值模拟试验分别探讨了地表反照率改变在黄河源区不...地表反照率是陆面过程中一个重要的物理量,其变化直接影响地表能量的收支状况,进而可以影响气温和降水等其它气象要素。本文利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,通过两组数值模拟试验分别探讨了地表反照率改变在黄河源区不同下垫面情况下潜热、感热的分配关系,详细分析了地表反照率改变对降水变化的影响机制,最后应用EOS/MODIS地表反照率产品替代原模式低时空分辨率的地表反照率。研究结果表明:(1)当地表反照率减少(增加)时,模拟的区域平均地表温度、感热、潜热数值相应增大(减少)。当地表反照率减少0.1时,地表温度上升约1.0K,感热和潜热量增量比约为3∶1。(2)地表反照率改变对降水量变化影响最大的区域是黄河源区下游的草场区域,其次是黄河源头区域,最小的是黄河源区北部的稀疏植被区域。地表反照率通过对大气动力、热力以及水汽条件的影响,使得降水发生的环境改变,主要体现在:当地表反照率减少时,地表气压的减少使得大气低层的辐合气流增强,有利于上升运动的发生;2.0m气温的升高增强了大气近地层的热力不稳定度;2.0m比湿的增加表明近地层空气水汽含量增加。(3)与实况对比分析发现,使用卫星遥感产品后在月尺度上能够更准确地模拟降水量的变化过程。展开更多
文摘准确估算区域降水对水文过程评价和水资源管理意义重大。为评估TRMM 3B42V7降水产品在海河流域南系的估算精度及其在土壤和水评估模型(Soil and Water Assessment Tool,SWAT)中的适用性,利用28个气象站降水观测数据(2007-2016年)和101个雨量站观测数据(2010-2016年)开展研究。研究表明:站点尺度上,3B42V7降水产品对月降水估算的均方根误差小于15 mm,平均误差小于8.5 mm;在湿润季节的估算精度更好。流域尺度上,日降水估算精度较差,相关系数小于0.6。分区尺度上,3B42V7能够很好地捕捉到不同等级降水强度,但对微量降雨有所低估;山区和平原的年降水量均出现高估现象,平原区较为突出;此外,3B42V7能够较好地捕捉到研究区内极端降水的时间和空间分布。分2种情景进行水文模拟,利用月平均流量对模型进行校准和验证,在情景Ⅰ中,验证期模拟结果较好,决定系数在0.56~0.96之间,纳什效率系数在-11.09~0.94之间。TRMM 3B42V7可为海河流域及其类似区域的水资源管理提供参考。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41671520)the Harbin Youth Reserve Talent Program,China(2016RAQXJ058)。
文摘Understanding the effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on regional climate is critical for achieving land use system sustainability and global climate change mitigation. However, the quantitative analysis of the contribution of LUCC to the changes of climatic factors, such as precipitation & temperature(P&T), is lacking. In this study, we combined statistical methods and the gravity center model simulation to quantify the effects of long-term LUCC on P&T in the Songnen Plain(SNP) of Northeast China from 1980–2018. The results showed the spatiotemporal variability of LUCC. For example, paddy field had the largest increase(15 166.43 km2) in the SNP, followed by dry land, while wetland had the largest decrease(19 977.13 km;) due to the excessive agricultural utilization and development. Annual average precipitation decreased at a rate of –9.89 mm per decade, and the warming trends were statistically significant with an increasing rate of 0.256°C per decade in this region since 1980. The model simulation revealed that paddy field, forestland, and wetland had positive effects on precipitation, which caused their gravity centers to migrate towards the same direction accompanied by the center of precipitation gravity, while different responses were seen for building land, dry land and unused land. These results indicated that forestland had the largest influence on the increase of precipitation compared with the other land use types.The responses in promoting the temperature increase differed significantly, being the highest in building land, and the lowest in forestland. In general, the analysis of regional-scale LUCC showed a significant reduction of wetland, and the increases in building land and cropland contributed to a continuous drying and rapid warming in the SNP.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2017YFA0603704National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.51339004。
文摘Drought is one of the most frequent and widespread natural disasters and has tremendous agricultural,ecological,societal,and economic impacts.Among the many drought indices,the standardized precipitation index(SPI)based on monthly precipitation data is simple to calculate and has multiscale characteristics.To evaluate the applicability of high spatiotemporal resolution satellite precipitation products for drought monitoring,based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)products and station-based meteorological data,the SPI values at different time scales(1,3,6,and 12 months)were calculated for the period of 1998-2016 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MLRYRB).The temporal correlations show that there is a high degree of consistency between calculations at the different time scales(1,3,6 and 12 months)based on the two data sources and that the amplitude of fluctuations decreases with increasing time scale.In addition,the Mann-Kendall(MK)test method was applied to analyze the trends from 1998 to 2016,and the results suggest that wetting trends clearly prevailed over drying trends.Moreover,a correlation analysis of the two data sources based on 60 meteorological stations was performed with the SPI values at different time scales.The correlation coefficients at the short time scales(1,3,and 6 months)are all greater than 0.7,and the correlation coefficient at the long time scale(12 months)is greater than 0.5.In summary,the results demonstrate that the TRMM 3B43 precipitation product provides a new data source that can be used for reliable drought monitoring in the MLRYRB.
文摘地表反照率是陆面过程中一个重要的物理量,其变化直接影响地表能量的收支状况,进而可以影响气温和降水等其它气象要素。本文利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,通过两组数值模拟试验分别探讨了地表反照率改变在黄河源区不同下垫面情况下潜热、感热的分配关系,详细分析了地表反照率改变对降水变化的影响机制,最后应用EOS/MODIS地表反照率产品替代原模式低时空分辨率的地表反照率。研究结果表明:(1)当地表反照率减少(增加)时,模拟的区域平均地表温度、感热、潜热数值相应增大(减少)。当地表反照率减少0.1时,地表温度上升约1.0K,感热和潜热量增量比约为3∶1。(2)地表反照率改变对降水量变化影响最大的区域是黄河源区下游的草场区域,其次是黄河源头区域,最小的是黄河源区北部的稀疏植被区域。地表反照率通过对大气动力、热力以及水汽条件的影响,使得降水发生的环境改变,主要体现在:当地表反照率减少时,地表气压的减少使得大气低层的辐合气流增强,有利于上升运动的发生;2.0m气温的升高增强了大气近地层的热力不稳定度;2.0m比湿的增加表明近地层空气水汽含量增加。(3)与实况对比分析发现,使用卫星遥感产品后在月尺度上能够更准确地模拟降水量的变化过程。
