Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function...Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change（ABM/LUCC）, an ecosystem process model（PnET-Ⅱ）, and a forest dynamic landscape model（LANDIS-Ⅱ） to simulate the change of forest aboveground biomass（AGB） which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period of 2010–2050 in Taihe County of southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest AGB. The results show that：（1） land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion and climate change are likely to influence forest AGB in the near future in Taihe County.（2） Though climate change will make a good contribution to an increase in forest AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in the forest AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 53.7%（RCP2.6 ＋ land use）, 57.2%（RCP4.5 ＋ land use）, and 56.9%（RCP8.5 ＋ land use） by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance.（3） The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function,and developing measures for sustainable forest management.展开更多
文摘选择山地、丘陵、河谷平原等层状地形构造特征突出的江西省泰和县为例,基于Arc/Info和Arcview等G IS软件的空间分析功能,使用25 m×25 m的DEM数据源建立了数字坡度模型,并与乡级行政区划图进行叠加分析,计算出以乡(镇)为单位的地表坡面面积增量。进而根据坡地的坡度越陡其地表面积增量越大的原理,将坡面面积增量与其投影面积的比定义为坡面增量系数(Increm ent Coeffic ient of Slope Area,ICSA),以ICSA为量化指标,探讨了区域地势评价的方法。
基金National Basic Research Program of China（973 Program）,No.2015CB452702 National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41571098,No.41371196,No.41530749 National Key Technology R＆D Program,No.2013BAC03B04
文摘Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change（ABM/LUCC）, an ecosystem process model（PnET-Ⅱ）, and a forest dynamic landscape model（LANDIS-Ⅱ） to simulate the change of forest aboveground biomass（AGB） which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period of 2010–2050 in Taihe County of southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest AGB. The results show that：（1） land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion and climate change are likely to influence forest AGB in the near future in Taihe County.（2） Though climate change will make a good contribution to an increase in forest AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in the forest AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 53.7%（RCP2.6 ＋ land use）, 57.2%（RCP4.5 ＋ land use）, and 56.9%（RCP8.5 ＋ land use） by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance.（3） The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function,and developing measures for sustainable forest management.
