Model for Predicting the Transport and Dispersal of Contaminants Incoming with Submarine Groundwater: Case Study for the Southwestern Taiwan Coastal Zone

As was recognized recently, the submarine groundwater transports a significant amount of various contaminants into the coastal ocean. An assessment of the impact of intruded pollutants in the coastal ecosystems requires understanding fate of the pollutants and processes of their dispersal in ambient waters. In this paper, we proposed a 3-D coupled ocean circulation/particle-tracking model for predicting the transport and dispersal of pollution-containing groundwater discharged into a coastal environment of the southwestern Taiwan. The particle-tracking model takes currents and turbulent diffusivities predetermined by the ocean circulation model and uses the Lagrangian approach to predict the motion of individual droplets, the sum of which constitutes a contaminant plume in result of discharge of contaminant-rich submarine groundwater. The ocean circulation model was forced by tides and seasonal favorable winds for the south-western coast of Taiwan. The initialization of the coupled model was set using field data obtained in 2009 on the Ping-tung shelf where shallow aquifer seepages were discovered. Several types of numerical experiment scenarios were set up to elucidate the transport and dispersal of conservative and nonconservative (nitrate) contaminants in the shallow coastal zone. The comparison of obtained numerical results with observations performed by other researches was discussed.

Improved stress release model: Application to the study of earthquake prediction in Taiwan Region

Stress release model used to be applied to seismicity study of large historical earthquakes in a space of large scale. In this paper, we improve the stress release model, and discuss whether the stress release model is still applicable or not in the case of smaller spatio-temporal scale and weaker earthquakes. As an example of testing the model, we have analyzed the M greater than or equal 6 earthquakes in recent about 100 years. The result shows that the stress release model is still applicable. The earthquake conditional probability intensity in Taiwan Region is calculated with the improved stress release model. We see that accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the improved stress release model is higher than that by Poisson model in the test of retrospect earthquake prediction.

Active tectonics in Taiwan:insights from a 3-D viscous finite element model

Taiwan is a young orogenic belt with complex spatial distributions of deformation and earthquakes. We have constructed a three-dimensional finite element model to explore how the interplays between lithospheric struc- ture and plate boundary processes control the distribution of stress and strain rates in the Taiwan region. The model assumes a liberalized power-law rheology and incorporates main lithospheric structures; the model domain is loaded by the present-day crustal velocity applied at its bound- aries. The model successfully reproduces the main features of the GPS-measured strain rate patterns and the earth- quake-indicated stress states in the Taiwan region. The best fitting model requires the viscosity of the lower crust to be two orders of magnitude lower than that of the upper crust and lithospheric mantle. The calculated deviatoric stress is high in regions of thrust faulting and low in regions of extensional and strike-slip faulting, consistent with the spatial pattern of seismic intensity in Taiwan.

2024年4月3日台湾省花莲县海域7.3级地震的快速产出参数

2024年4月3日07时58分(北京时间)在台湾省花莲县海域发生7.3级地震。中国地震局地球物理研究所在震后启动快速响应,组织相关领域研究人员对此次地震的震源模型、地震辐射能量等进行了估计,同时基于震源模型进行了震动图模拟、同震形变场模拟。结果表明,此次地震发生在菲律宾海板块和欧亚板块的边界,以逆冲机制为主,呈现双侧破裂,能量集中在前约35 s内释放;极震区震动烈度可能达Ⅹ度以上,可能的受灾范围近35 000 km^(2);此次地震引起了显著的同震位移,最大水平向位移达到0.52 m、垂直向位移达到1.18 m。

中国内地对台湾地区出口的影响因素分析——基于CMS模型

本文选取联合国贸易2002-2022年中国内地对台湾地区水产品出口贸易数据,运用CMS模型对中国内地水产品出口到台湾地区的影响因素进行两个层次的分析。结果表明:1.2002-2022年期间,中国内地对台湾地区水产品的出口呈现“缓增-激增-跌落”三个阶段,对台主要出口甲壳软体制品、鲜冷甲壳及软体类、生鲜冷冻鱼和鱼制品四类水产品。2.在2002-2022年期间的三个阶段中,竞争力效应和第二层次分解的综合竞争力效应是影响中国内地对台湾地区水产品出口的主导因素。3.在2018-2022年阶段台湾地区水产品进口规模扩大,但是中国内地水产品在台湾地区市场上的市场份额却降低。再此基础上,提出促进两岸水产品贸易相应的对策建议。

内地青年网络社群涉台舆情的主题分布与情感特征——基于LDA模型和文本情感计算的大数据分析

综合使用LDA模型、文本情感计算等大数据方法与传统数据处理方法,分析内地主流青年网络社群中的舆情文本后发现,当前青年网络社群中的涉台议题表达可归入“政治”“文娱”“对抗”“生活”“交流”五大主题。在内容特征方面,“政治”和“交流”主题较易获得观看者的支持;“文娱”议题呈现“粉丝向”特征;“对抗”议题较易获得短期关注与转发;“生活”议题较易引发广泛讨论。在情感特征方面,涉台讨论呈现出“爱憎分明”的特点,最常被表达的情感是“赞扬”和“贬责”,但在积极向度的表达中,约有20%—25%属于揶揄和讽刺性用法。在互动形式方面,负面、强烈的情感表达较易引发关注和讨论。另外,用户性别与涉台讨论的情感向度显著相关。未来有必要进一步加强对青年网络社群的涉台舆情追踪,重视舆情引导,并强化青年网络社群中涉台交流的机制建设和积极情感表达。

闽台海岸带生境质量时空演变及其影响因素

快速城镇化、工业化背景下对海岸带生境质量进行评估,揭示影响生境变化的关键驱动因子,对于海岸带生态可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究以福建东海岸和台湾西海岸(以下合称闽台海岸带)为研究对象,借助1990年、2000年、2010年、2020年的土地利用以及社会经济数据,运用InVEST模型及地理探测器分析土地利用变化下生境质量的时空演变特征及其影响因素,为城市生态空间优化提供可靠的理论依据。结果表明:(1)1990-2020年两岸土地利用变化以建设用地的增长及耕地的减少为主要特征。建设用地2000-2010年面积增长最多,年均增长5.66%。耕地作为建设用地面积最大转入来源,面积共减少1781 km^(2),年均减少2.55%。土地变化福建东海岸大于台湾西海岸。(2)1990-2020年闽台海岸带生境质量均值为0.82,总体生态质量良好,但呈下降趋势。2000-2010年两岸低等级生境面积增长最快,2010年后增长速度趋缓。生态用地向非生态用地的转移对生境退化的贡献率超过70%。(3)夜间灯光指数、人口密度、GDP、高程、坡度为影响生境质量变化的主要因素,30年间主导因素由地形因素变为社会经济因素。研究为闽台沿海地区陆海土地资源管理提供科学依据,对区域协同发展具有重要意义。

Dengue outbreaks in Taiwan, 1998-2017: Importation, serotype and temporal pattern

Objective: To ascertain the role of imported cases and serotypes on dengue outbreaks in Taiwan which have been sporadic yet highly volatile during the past two decades, exhibiting record-breaking magnitude in recent years. Methods: Confirmed case and serotype data from Taiwan Centers for Disease Control during 1998-2017 were fully examined, with fitting of weekly and daily case data of each city/county to a mathematical model to pinpoint the waves of cases and their locations. Moreover, we quantify the timing of turning point and transmission potential of each wave and determine its circulating serotype, to ascertain any pattern or connection between the variations in circulating serotypes and the magnitude/transmissibility of outbreak. Results: While the number of imported case increased steadily during past two decades, the yearly number of indigenous cases fluctuated wildly. Moreover, while yearly percentages of serotypes for imported cases remains steady, that of indigenous cases does not exhibit any clear pattern. There was at least one wave of reported cases somewhere in Taiwan every year from 1998 to 2015, except in 2016-2017. The effective reproduction number R for all waves in all locations ranged from 1.14 to 2.87, with the exception of two Tainan waves, in 2010(3.95) and 2015(6.84). Four major outbreaks of over 2000 cases reveal circulation of one dominant serotype. Conclusions: Correlation between imported cases and indigenous outbreak prove to be difficult to ascertain, even with the availability of serotype data. However, although there had been occasional co-circulation of serotypes in one location, and for some years with different serotypes circulating in different locations, all major outbreaks of over 2 000 cases during the past two decades are due to circulation of mainly a single serotype, perhaps indicating greater transmission potential with one dominating serotype.

Quantitative estimation of land surface evapotranspiration in Taiwan based on MODIS data

Land surface evapotranspiration （ET） determines the local and regional water-heat balances. Accurate estimation of regional surface ET provides a scientific basis for the formulation and implementation of water conservation programs. This study set up a table of the momentum roughness length and zero-plane displacement related with land cover and an empirical relationship between land surface temperature and air temperature. A revised quantitative remote sensing ET model, the SEBS-Taiwan model, was developed. Based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） data, SEBS-Taiwan was used to simulate and evaluate the typical actual daily ET values in different seasons of 2002 and 2003 in Taiwan. SEBS-Taiwan generally performed well and could accurately simulate the actual daily ET. The simulated daily ET values matched the observed values satisfactorily. The results indicate that the net regional solar radiation, evaporation ratio, and surface ET values for the whole area of Taiwan are larger in summer than in spring, and larger in autumn than in winter. The results also show that the regional average daily ET values of 2002 are a little higher than those of 2003. Through analysis of the ET values from different types of land cover, we found that forest has the largest ET value, while water areas, bare land, and urban areas have the lowest ET values. Generally, the Northern Taiwan Region, including llan County, Nantou County, and Hualien County, has higher ET values, while other cities, such as Chiayi, Taichung, and Tainan, have lower ET values.

惠台福利可及性的社会工作协助模式探究——地方为本的整体性服务视角

运用行动研究方法,借用整体性服务概念,用以探讨惠台福利可及性的社会工作协助模式。行动研究案例实践表明,惠台福利输送需要聚焦跨文化障碍所造成的服务“适切性”问题,该问题影响惠台福利输送的可及性。通过搭建“一站式”社区台胞综合服务平台、构建需求导向的台胞服务整体性治理结构、发展服务系统的支援性导航服务、培育支持性的台胞服务社区伙伴,有助于解决该问题,从而改善福利输送可及性。在此基础上,惠台福利可及性的社会工作协助模式应注重发展嵌入性治理结构下目标一致的职能管理结构,与公共部门协同提供地方为本的整体性社会服务。

RCEP签订对台湾地区整体经济及服务业的影响——基于GTAP的分析

2020年11月15日,RCEP正式签署,对以出口为命脉的我国台湾地区经济将造成长远的影响。本文基于GTAP模型,模拟了RCEP签订后不同的RCEP地区关税降幅对我国台湾地区经济整体以及服务业相关产业的影响。本文首先运用GTAP软件模拟了三种RCEP地区关税情境对我国台湾地区宏观经济与所有产业的冲击,之后对服务业各细分行业的冲击进行了模拟。研究发现RCEP建立将对岛内各产业产出、经济增长、消费者福利带来负面冲击。但是,就服务业而言,得益于出口价格下降和RCEP地区需求上升,部分行业产出增加,但其他行业仍然将遭受产出下降的痛苦。

海峡西岸城市群协调发展规划对区域经济增长的影响

利用双重差分模型,探究海峡西岸城市群的建立对区域经济增长的影响。结果表明,海峡西岸城市群的设立对区域经济增长有显著正向作用,在加入众多控制变量后政策效应依然显著为正,基于PSM-DID估计方法的检验也得到了基本一致的结论。据此,建议加强地方政府的支持与引导,强化中心城市在海峡西岸城市群建设中的核心引领作用,同时因地施策,促进区域内产业分工与合作,进而促进区域经济增长。

基于景观功能网络概念的景观格局优化——以台湾地区乌溪流域典型区为例

景观格局连通度与景观功能联系程度息息相关,不论维持生态稳定或促进城市社会经济发展,都必须提升景观结构的空间联系。选择台湾地区乌溪流域典型区为研究区,面对台湾地区城市发展所造成的生态环境品质降低及自然栖息地破碎化等问题,期望通过生态功能网络构建,维护生态稳定及制约建成区的无序蔓延。基于景观功能与结构相互作用理论,景观功能的空间强度受景观类型、空间结构及相对距离的影响而产生差异,利用耗费距离模型,结合景观类型、景观格局特征、景观功能相互作用以及生态系统服务功能价值等分析方法,分析了台湾地区乌溪流域典型区的生态功能空间差异,进而基于最小累积耗费算法构建生态廊道,提出景观格局优化方案,以作为台湾地区未来景观生态建设的参考。

台风“杜鹃”影响期间福建大风天气的特点及成因

台风“杜鹃"影响期间,福建大风天气出现的比较早,而且范围比较大.本文通过对天气尺度的环境场、具有代表性的单站资料的对比分析,寻求大风出现的原因.还深入利用MM5模式对台风的气压场、风场、流场等进行数值模拟,分析结果表明台湾地形倒槽的形成对此次大风天气出现有着重要的作用,此外从流场分型的角度进一步分析台湾地形倒槽的形成原因.

台湾地区医保药品的采购模式和支付价格

目的:分析台湾地区医保药品在采购和支付方面的做法和经验,为大陆地区推进药品采购模式和支付价格改革提供参考。方法:系统梳理台湾地区在医保药品采购和支付方面的政策文件和相关文献,并与大陆地区药品采购和支付政策进行对比分析。结果:台湾地区医疗机构根据自身用药需求,自主采购药品,采购价格由供需双方直接谈判形成。政府仅对医保药品的价格进行管理,对新药采用国际参考定价办法;原厂药、BA/BE学名药、一般学名药的支付价以国际参考价格为上限,依次降低。药品质量也在医保支付标准考虑之列。此外,药品的支付价格依据采购价格实行动态调整,当二者差值大于30%时,健保署便会调整支付价格以减小二者的差价。结论:台湾地区通过制度设计和调整,较好地统筹了药品采购和补偿两个环节,形成了合理的药品采购价格和支付价格,这些经验可为中国大陆地区完善药品采购和支付政策提供参考。

我国大陆农产品出口台湾地区的变动分析

运用恒定市场份额模型 ,定量分析了 1992— 2 0 0 2年我国大陆农产品出口台湾地区的竞争效应、商品构成效应和市场规模效应构成。结果表明 ,大陆对台湾农产品出口贸易中 ,主要产品类型集中在劳动密集型产品和中草药等一些特定产品领域 ;竞争效应是大陆农产品对台湾出口增加的主要原因 ,是农产品贸易顺差产生的关键因素 ;市场规模效应和商品构成效应对大陆农产品出口的增加起到了逆向作用 ,其中对台湾需求较高的农产品出口较少是造成商品构成效应不明显的原因。

基于共生理论的闽台旅游产业竞合模式

将共生理论引入闽台旅游产业竞合模式的研究,在分析闽台旅游产业竞合共生条件的基础上,提出闽台旅游产业理想竞合模式应是以闽台两地企业为主导,两岸政府服务和两地行业协会协调配合,两地居民积极参与的一体化互惠共生模式。

东亚模式视角下台湾与大陆发展模式异同研究

中国台湾模式和大陆模式本质上同属于东亚模式,本文在东亚模式的视角下,对台湾与大陆发展模式的异同进行了研究,并分析了中国台湾地区模式与大陆模式异同的原因,对促进台湾与大陆经济合作及发展有一定现实意义。

台湾护理:打开新视界的一扇窗

本文通过介绍我国台湾医疗护理概况及护理管理特色,包括磁性职场、护理模式及排班方式、指标化的质量管理及护士进阶等,提出了对大陆护理管理工作的启示。

台湾地区地壳形变的弹性块体位错模型

在经典的非震形变位错模型中,地壳形变被认为是活动块体刚性运动和上部断层锁定影响的叠加,本文对此模型进行了改进:(1)用活动块体整体运动和内部线性应变、旋转的贡献代替活动块体刚性运动的贡献;(2)用分层介质地壳模型代替半无限介质模型计算断层锁定的影响.利用改进后的非震形变位错模型,拟合了台湾地区1990～1995年间GPS观测资料.结果显示,在东部海岸山脉区,约有30 mm·a^(-1)的汇聚率被奇美断层消耗掉,运动速度从奇美断层向北迅速衰减.在西部平原地区,南部断层是岛内锁定最为强烈的断层,该地区相应的也是史上灾害性地震多发的地区.根据反演结果计算出的应变率与旋转率分布与前人结果在大部分地区一致,主应变率场显示台湾大部分地区存在近NW-SE方向的主压应变,主压应变方向呈扇形分布.旋转率场显示台湾东部和南部地区存在着逆时针旋转率,而西部和北部地区则为顺时针旋转率.