Based on the available and supplementary survey data,it analyzes the effect of seismicity in Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits on the southeastern coastal area of the Chinese mainland and discusses its roles in seismic ha...Based on the available and supplementary survey data,it analyzes the effect of seismicity in Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits on the southeastern coastal area of the Chinese mainland and discusses its roles in seismic hazard prevention and textual research of historical earthquakes. The results show that the frequency of strong earthquake in Taiwan Region is high,with a time interval ranging from several to dozens of years,but the maximum influence intensity of seismicity from there to the coastal areas of the Chinese mainland is only VI degree; while the maximum influence intensity of the seismicity along the littoral fault zone located on the west of the straits reaches VIII ～ IX degree because of the shorter distance to the Chinese mainland,though the frequency of strong earthquakes is lower than that of the Taiwan Region. Strategies for protecting against seismic hazards in the southeastern coastal area of China are proposed. Besides focusing on the effect of strong earthquakes of the littoral fault zone,attention also has to be paid to the low-cycle fatigue failure of engineering structures induced by the earthquakes in Taiwan and the stir effect on society induced by earthquake phobia. It is concluded that it would be more accurate and proper to take the May 19,1517 earthquake recorded in the Chinese mainland area as the influence of a strong earthquake in the Taiwan Region.展开更多
It has taken more than a hundred years for seismic observations in the Philippines to evolve to a modern observation system. The responsibility of seismic observations was likewise transferred from one agency to anoth...It has taken more than a hundred years for seismic observations in the Philippines to evolve to a modern observation system. The responsibility of seismic observations was likewise transferred from one agency to another during this same period of time. At present, the mandate of conducting seismic observations in the Philippines rests with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). In 2000, through a grant aid from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the Philippine seismic network was upgraded to a digital system. As a result, a new set of seismic monitoring equipments was installed in all of the 34 PHIVOLCS seismic stations all over the country. Digital waveforms are now available for high level seismic data processing, and data acquisition and processing are now automated. Included in the upgrade is the provision of strong motion accelerographs in all stations whose data can now be used for studying ground motion and intensity attenuation relations. The new setup is now producing high-resolution data that can now be used for conducting basic seismological researches. Earthquake locations have now improved allowing for the modeling and delineation of earthquake source regions necessary for earthquake hazard studies. Current seismic hazard studies in the Philippines involve the estimation of ground motion using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, seismic microzonation studies of key cities using microtremor observations, paleoseismology and active faults mapping, and identification of liquefaction-prone, landslide-prone and tsunami-affected areas. The earthquake database is now being reviewed and completed with the addition of historical events and from data from regional databases. While studies of seismic hazards were primarily concentrated on a regional level, PHIVOLCS is now focusing on doing these seismic hazard studies on a microlevel. For Metro Manila, first generation hazard maps showing ground rupture, ground shaking and liquefaction hazards have recently been completed. Other large cities that are also at risk from large earthquakes are the next targets. The elements at risk such as population, lifelines, and vertical and horizontal structures for each of these urban centers are also being incorporated in the hazard maps for immediate use of planners, civil defense officials, policy-makers and engineers. The maps can also now be used to describe possible scenarios during times of strong events and how appropriate socio-economic and engineering responses could be designed. In addition, a rapid earthquake damage assessment system has been started which will attempt to produce immediate or rapid assessments including identification of elements at risk during times of strong earthquakes.展开更多
Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic ear...Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.展开更多
基金sponsored by the Special Project of Seismic Industry,Study on the Seismic Safety of Nuclear Power Plant (200708003)
文摘Based on the available and supplementary survey data,it analyzes the effect of seismicity in Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits on the southeastern coastal area of the Chinese mainland and discusses its roles in seismic hazard prevention and textual research of historical earthquakes. The results show that the frequency of strong earthquake in Taiwan Region is high,with a time interval ranging from several to dozens of years,but the maximum influence intensity of seismicity from there to the coastal areas of the Chinese mainland is only VI degree; while the maximum influence intensity of the seismicity along the littoral fault zone located on the west of the straits reaches VIII ～ IX degree because of the shorter distance to the Chinese mainland,though the frequency of strong earthquakes is lower than that of the Taiwan Region. Strategies for protecting against seismic hazards in the southeastern coastal area of China are proposed. Besides focusing on the effect of strong earthquakes of the littoral fault zone,attention also has to be paid to the low-cycle fatigue failure of engineering structures induced by the earthquakes in Taiwan and the stir effect on society induced by earthquake phobia. It is concluded that it would be more accurate and proper to take the May 19,1517 earthquake recorded in the Chinese mainland area as the influence of a strong earthquake in the Taiwan Region.
文摘It has taken more than a hundred years for seismic observations in the Philippines to evolve to a modern observation system. The responsibility of seismic observations was likewise transferred from one agency to another during this same period of time. At present, the mandate of conducting seismic observations in the Philippines rests with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). In 2000, through a grant aid from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the Philippine seismic network was upgraded to a digital system. As a result, a new set of seismic monitoring equipments was installed in all of the 34 PHIVOLCS seismic stations all over the country. Digital waveforms are now available for high level seismic data processing, and data acquisition and processing are now automated. Included in the upgrade is the provision of strong motion accelerographs in all stations whose data can now be used for studying ground motion and intensity attenuation relations. The new setup is now producing high-resolution data that can now be used for conducting basic seismological researches. Earthquake locations have now improved allowing for the modeling and delineation of earthquake source regions necessary for earthquake hazard studies. Current seismic hazard studies in the Philippines involve the estimation of ground motion using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, seismic microzonation studies of key cities using microtremor observations, paleoseismology and active faults mapping, and identification of liquefaction-prone, landslide-prone and tsunami-affected areas. The earthquake database is now being reviewed and completed with the addition of historical events and from data from regional databases. While studies of seismic hazards were primarily concentrated on a regional level, PHIVOLCS is now focusing on doing these seismic hazard studies on a microlevel. For Metro Manila, first generation hazard maps showing ground rupture, ground shaking and liquefaction hazards have recently been completed. Other large cities that are also at risk from large earthquakes are the next targets. The elements at risk such as population, lifelines, and vertical and horizontal structures for each of these urban centers are also being incorporated in the hazard maps for immediate use of planners, civil defense officials, policy-makers and engineers. The maps can also now be used to describe possible scenarios during times of strong events and how appropriate socio-economic and engineering responses could be designed. In addition, a rapid earthquake damage assessment system has been started which will attempt to produce immediate or rapid assessments including identification of elements at risk during times of strong earthquakes.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2039204)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1504203).
文摘Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.
