Why does interest rate policy not work in the economy as economic theory suggests?To understand why,you need to look at the economy from a higher level of abstraction.With this approach,only two states of the economy ...Why does interest rate policy not work in the economy as economic theory suggests?To understand why,you need to look at the economy from a higher level of abstraction.With this approach,only two states of the economy can be distinguished.The first is a“normal”state;the second is crisis and recession.The“normal”state is the period after the recession and before the next crisis.During this period,the basic laws of the market economy work.During a crisis,the relationship between the level of interest rates and borrowing by households and businesses is broken.This explains the ineffectiveness of the policy of lowering interest rates.Different states of the economy have their own laws,and you cannot extrapolate tools that are successful under“normal”market conditions linearly to the crisis state of the economy.Why does the interest rate policy during the period of the“normal”state of the economy not adjust its development in order to prevent the onset of the crisis?Firstly,the conditions for the emergence of crisis phenomena are created by the interest rate policy at the very beginning of the business cycle,when central banks set and maintain low interest rates for a relatively long period.Secondly,by the end of the business cycle,the credit burden in economy reaches its maximum,so there is no further possibility of expanding effective demand by decreasing interest rates.Thirdly,interest rate policy is an instrument for rough adjustment of the economy,indiscriminately affecting all participants in economic relations.In an attempt to stimulate the economy,the central bank creates the conditions for increasing its imbalance.Fourth,at the end of the business cycle,the interest rate policy does not actually support the real economy,but only the stock market.Fifth,the Fed’s policy has formed a pro-crisis conditioned reflex among market participants.Thus,central banks should leave the determination of the level of interest rates to the free market.展开更多
The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on centr...The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency(CBDC)?To answer the two questions,we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that accommodates sticky prices and wages.The results indicated:(i)Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment,output,wage,and loans,which increases unemployment risk.In the short term,it has triggered impulsive consumption by households,while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run.(ii)After suffering an uncertainty shock,the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation.The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment,and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk.(ii)CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound(ZLB)constraint,thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP.Compared with traditional currency,CBDCbased NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock,which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.展开更多
法定数字货币(Central Bank Digital Currency,CBDC)是既有数量又有方向区分的智能“异质矢量”货币,有助于实现货币政策的定向精准调控。基于CBDC的流向主体条件触发机制,构建了货币效用生产(Money in Utility&Production,MIUP)模...法定数字货币(Central Bank Digital Currency,CBDC)是既有数量又有方向区分的智能“异质矢量”货币,有助于实现货币政策的定向精准调控。基于CBDC的流向主体条件触发机制,构建了货币效用生产(Money in Utility&Production,MIUP)模型,并分别模拟了面向家庭或厂商的定向数量型货币政策调控效果。研究发现:传统数量型货币政策,同时影响经济总需求和总供给,但以需求侧效应为主;针对家庭的定向数量型货币政策,仅影响经济总需求,可兼顾“稳增长”与“稳通缩”,能有效缓解需求侧冲击;针对厂商的定向数量型货币政策,仅影响经济总供给,能同时“稳增长”与“稳通胀”,可有效缓解供给侧冲击。在CBDC时代,货币政策具有“定量+定向”双重属性,将促进货币政策从“大水漫灌”模式进入“精准滴灌”模式。因此,在CBDC功能创新方面,应同时关注交易支付功能和政策实施功能,做到多能并举和智能集成;货币政策创新要为宏观调控立良策谋善治,既要跟上货币形态和功能的演进,又要适应数字经济的发展要求。展开更多
文摘Why does interest rate policy not work in the economy as economic theory suggests?To understand why,you need to look at the economy from a higher level of abstraction.With this approach,only two states of the economy can be distinguished.The first is a“normal”state;the second is crisis and recession.The“normal”state is the period after the recession and before the next crisis.During this period,the basic laws of the market economy work.During a crisis,the relationship between the level of interest rates and borrowing by households and businesses is broken.This explains the ineffectiveness of the policy of lowering interest rates.Different states of the economy have their own laws,and you cannot extrapolate tools that are successful under“normal”market conditions linearly to the crisis state of the economy.Why does the interest rate policy during the period of the“normal”state of the economy not adjust its development in order to prevent the onset of the crisis?Firstly,the conditions for the emergence of crisis phenomena are created by the interest rate policy at the very beginning of the business cycle,when central banks set and maintain low interest rates for a relatively long period.Secondly,by the end of the business cycle,the credit burden in economy reaches its maximum,so there is no further possibility of expanding effective demand by decreasing interest rates.Thirdly,interest rate policy is an instrument for rough adjustment of the economy,indiscriminately affecting all participants in economic relations.In an attempt to stimulate the economy,the central bank creates the conditions for increasing its imbalance.Fourth,at the end of the business cycle,the interest rate policy does not actually support the real economy,but only the stock market.Fifth,the Fed’s policy has formed a pro-crisis conditioned reflex among market participants.Thus,central banks should leave the determination of the level of interest rates to the free market.
基金the National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science of China(Grant No.21BJY206)。
文摘The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency(CBDC)?To answer the two questions,we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that accommodates sticky prices and wages.The results indicated:(i)Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment,output,wage,and loans,which increases unemployment risk.In the short term,it has triggered impulsive consumption by households,while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run.(ii)After suffering an uncertainty shock,the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation.The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment,and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk.(ii)CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound(ZLB)constraint,thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP.Compared with traditional currency,CBDCbased NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock,which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.
文摘法定数字货币(Central Bank Digital Currency,CBDC)是既有数量又有方向区分的智能“异质矢量”货币,有助于实现货币政策的定向精准调控。基于CBDC的流向主体条件触发机制,构建了货币效用生产(Money in Utility&Production,MIUP)模型,并分别模拟了面向家庭或厂商的定向数量型货币政策调控效果。研究发现:传统数量型货币政策,同时影响经济总需求和总供给,但以需求侧效应为主;针对家庭的定向数量型货币政策,仅影响经济总需求,可兼顾“稳增长”与“稳通缩”,能有效缓解需求侧冲击;针对厂商的定向数量型货币政策,仅影响经济总供给,能同时“稳增长”与“稳通胀”,可有效缓解供给侧冲击。在CBDC时代,货币政策具有“定量+定向”双重属性,将促进货币政策从“大水漫灌”模式进入“精准滴灌”模式。因此,在CBDC功能创新方面,应同时关注交易支付功能和政策实施功能,做到多能并举和智能集成;货币政策创新要为宏观调控立良策谋善治,既要跟上货币形态和功能的演进,又要适应数字经济的发展要求。
