Time-seismicity evolution and seismic risk assessment of the Arabian plate

The seismicity of the Arabian plate, which is the aim of this paper, is controlled by the ZagrosTaurus collision zone in the North, the Indian expansion zone and the Arab golf in the South and the East, the Dead Sea Fault, the North continuity of the Red Sea, and the Syrian rift, which links the rigid Arabian plate to the mobile ophiolite belt of Cyprus-Southern Turkey in the West. These major elements with their related fracture system, make the Arabian plate an important seismic centre. To attain our purpose, a variable methodology is used in: measurements of movement rate-displacement in the field, the analysis of historical and recent seismic data, and physical effects on the structures. The movement rate-displacement, calculated in the field by different specialists, varies from 2 to 6 mm/year. This rate increases from 2 - 3 mm/year in the North, to 6 mm in the South. These estimations are confirmed by historical seismic data, the recent seismic recorded by the Arab seismic centers, and physical effects on the building structures in the region. The analysis of historical and recent seismic data recorded in the seismic centre show that the seismicity in this plate, tend to fade out with time. This result is in agreement with recent estimations on the movement rate, and in line with the decrease of major seismic intensity, which has occurred during the last millennium. A conclusion of time-evolution seismicity is traced, and a seismic zoning map, for the Arabian plate, using movement rate, seismic data, and tectono-geodynamic analysis, is proposed.

Integral Evolution Pattern of Intraplate Seismicity in Chinese Mainland and Its Periphery

Taking the active fault network as the structural frame, the Chinese mainland and its periphery can be regarded as a system of "fault movement and seismogeny." By using the self-coupling method, preliminary study shows that the seismogenic system is a time-ordered dissipation system. The time order in the state far from equilibrium is established and maintained through mass and energy exchanges between the system and the surroundings. The evolution of the seismogenic system follows some properties of unbalanced phase change, namely, critical retard, bifurcation, entropy reduction, etc.

Relation between the evolution of seismic apparent strain field and the region of strong earthquake occurrence

In this paper, according to the data on the middle and strong earthquakes in China, we have preliminary studied the relation between the characteristic of space-time evolution of the seismic apparent strain field and the regions of 31 macroseism events since 1955. The result shows that, there is a rather well correlation between the anomaly region of seismic apparent strain and the zone of macroseism event occurrence within the time range of one to about five years. The R value of the application of the abnormal region of seismic apparent strain to predicting the area of strong earthquake occurrence is 0.458, and the empirical possibility of forecasting the region of macroseism occurrence is 0.625, and so the forecasting effect is comparatively well. Finally, the main results obtained above are discussed preliminarily.

South China Sea Typhoon Hagibis enhanced Xinfengjiang Reservoir seismicity

There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis.To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismicity,we built a high-precision earthquake catalog for 2014 and relocated 2275 events using recently developed methods for event picking and catalog construction.Seismicity occurred in the southeastern part of the reservoir,with the preferred fault plane orientation aligned along the Heyuan Fault.The total seismic energy peaked when the typhoon passed through the reservoir,and seismicity correlated with typhoon energy.In contrast,a limited seismic response was observed during the later Typhoon Rammasun.Combining data regarding the water level in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir and seismicity frequency changes in the Taiwan region during these two typhoon events,we suggest that typhoon activity may increase microseism energy by impacting fault stability around the Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Whether a fault can be activated also depends on how close the stress accumulation is to its failure point.

Study on Evolution of Gravity Fieldand Earthquake Prediction in theNorth-south Seismic Belt and theEastern Qinghai-Xizang Block

The relation between the dynamic evolution feature of gravity field and strong seismicity is studied. The result shows that the regional gravity field variation enjoys inhomogeneity of spatial and temporal distribution and gravity change in different regions. It may be resulted from active faults and seismogenic process, and may be due to microdynamic activity of regional strain energy, which might be accumulated or released in different stages, and there exists transformation process of stress.

Seismic sequence and depositional evolution of slope basins in mid-northern margin of the South China Sea

As one of the biggest marginal seas in the western Pacific margin, the South China Sea （SCS） experienced continental rifting and seafloor spreading during the Cenozoic. The northern continental margin of the SCS is classified as a passive continental margin. However, its depositional and structural evolution remains controversial, especially in the deep slope area. The lack of data hindered the correlation between continental shelf and oceanic basin, and prevented the establishment of sequence stratigraphic frame of the whole margin. The slope basins in the mid-northern margin of SCS developed in the Cenozoic; the sediments and basin infill recorded the geological history of the continental margin and the SCS spreading. Using multi-channel seismic dataset acquired in three survey cruises during 1987 to 2004, combined with the data of ODP Leg 184 core and industrial wells, we carried out the sequence stratigraphic division and correlation of the Cenozoic in the middle-northern margin of SCS with seismic profiles and sedimentary facies. We interpreted the seismic reflection properties including continuity, amplitude, fi＇equency, reflection terminals, and 15 sequence boundaries of the Cenozoic in the study area, and correlated the well data in geological age. The depositional environment changed from river and lake, shallow bay to open-deep sea, in correspondence to tectonic events of syn-rifting, early drifting, and late drifting stages of basin evolution.

Formation and evolution of the tertiary carbonate reefs in the Madura Strait Basin of Indonesia

Analysis of 2 D seismic data over 4 500 km in length from the Madura Strait Basin in the East Java Sea reveals seismic re?ection characteristics of reefs and associated sedimentary bodies, including asymmetrical or symmetrical dome re?ections, slope progradational re?ections, chaotic re?ections and discontinuous strong re?ections inside the reef, which onlap the ?ank of the reef. It is concluded that the developmental paleo-environment of most reefs is mainly conducive to shallow marine carbonate platform facies and platform margin facies, based on well core data, variations in seismic facies and strata thickness.The formation and evolution of all reefs are primarily in?uenced by the tectonic framework of the Madura Strait Basin. Platform margin reefs are principally controlled by two types of structures: one is a series of E-W trending Paleogene normal faults, and the other is an E-W trending Neogene inversion structures. In addition, wave actions, tidal currents and other ocean currents play an accelerated role in sorting, rounding and redeposition for the accumulation and evolution of reefs. Tertiary reefs in the MSB can be divided into four types: 1) an open platform coral reef of Late Oligocene to Early Miocene, 2) a platform margin coral reef controlled by normal faults in Late Oligocene to Early Miocene, 3) a platform margin Globigerina moundreef controlled by a "hidden" inversion structure in Early Pliocene, and 4) a platform margin Globigerina mound-reef controlled by thrust faults in the early Pliocene. Patterns of the formation and evolution of reefs are also suggested.

Tectonic evolution of structures in Southern Sindh Monocline,Indus Basin,Pakistan formed in multi-extensional tectonic episodes of Indian Plate

There are a number of structures and structural styles found in extensional tectonic settings of the world,and it is a big challenge to study the evolution of these structures. Evolution of structures formed in extensional tectonic settings have been studied by researchers on different extensional basins of the world. Southern Sindh Monocline lies on the western corner of Indian Plate and the tectonic history of Indian plate has also experienced different extensional episodes, and its journey rifted from Gondwanaland to its final welding to Asia. The aim of this study is to figure out the evolution of structures in the subsurface of Southern Sindh Monocline, Pakistan using the seismic data interpretation and flattening of horizons approach. Structures within the subsurface of Southern Sindh Monocline have been characterized by different tectonic episodes of Indian plate while rifting from Gondwanaland, rifting from other plates at different geological times and to its collision with the Asia. Basic structures within study area are classified into nine types while the structural styles have been classified into six types as horst and grabens, dominos, crotch, synthetic and antithetic, negative and flashlight structural style. The structures within the study area revealed evidence for three major structural episodes which can be characterized as Episode 1: Structures associated with rifting of Indian plate from Gondwanaland during Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous, Episode 2: Modification and reactivation of previous structures while Madagascar rifted from Indian Plate during the Middle Cretaceous and during Episode 3: Inversion and reactivation of structures occurred when Indian Plate collided with Asia during Early Eocene.

Structural Evolution of Chepaizi Uplift and its Control on Stratigraphic Deposition in the Western Junggar Basin, China

Geological mapping,interpreted cross sections,structural analyses and residual thickness maps were used to characterize the evolution of stress setting,structure and stratigraphic distribution of the Chepaizi Uplift,which is a NW-SE trending structure located in the Western Junggar Basin.The NS-trending faults show an important transpressional phase during the Late Permian,as demonstrated by tectonic stress field and stratigraphic thickness variations.A major compressional thrusting and strike-slip phase during the Late Jurassic created a series of NW-SE faults that originated by the large-scale uplift event in the Northern Tianshan.Faults were reactivated as thrust and dextral strike-slip faults.In addition,the angular unconformity observed between Jurassic and Cretaceous provide evidence of this tectonic event.Lots of normal faults indicate that the area records southward tilting and regional derived extensional stress that took place during the Neogene.Before that,thick Early Cenozoic strata are widely deposited.The balanced cross-section highlights the evolution of stress setting and stratigraphic distribution of the Chepaizi Uplift.

Activity evolution of landslides and debris flows after the Wenchuan earthquake in the Qipan catchment,Southwest China

The Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 induced numerous landslides.Loose landslide materials were deposited on hillslopes,and deep channels were easily remobilized and transformed into debris flows by extreme rainstorms.Twelve years after the Wenchuan earthquake,debris flows were still active in the Qipangou Ravine in the quake-hit area.In this paper,we continuously tracked the spatiotemporal evolution of the landslides and vegetation restoration and evaluated the evolution of debris flow activity in the Qipan catchment with the aid of a GIS platform and field investigations from 2008 to 2019.We observed that the area with active landslides increased sharply immediately following the earthquake,and then decreased with time;however,the total area of landslides continued to increase from 6.93 km^(2)in 2008 to 10.55 km^(2)in 2019.The active landslides shifted towards lower angles and higher elevations after 2013.Since 2009,the vegetation coverage has been gradually increasing and approaching the coverage present before the earthquake as of 2019.The landslide activity was high and the vegetation recovery rates were rapidly rising during the first five years after the earthquake;the recovery rates then slowed over time.Therefore,we divided the evolution that occurred during the post landslide period into an active period(2008-2013),a self-adjustment period(2013-2026)and a stable period(after 2026).We then proposed a quantitative model to determine the trends of landslide activity rates and NDVI values in the catchment,which indicated that the landslide activities and postseismic vegetation restoration rates in this catchment will return to preseismic levels within approximately two decades.We also analysed the runout volumes of the debris flows after the earthquakes(Diexi and Wenchuan)and the standard deviation of the vegetation coverage and predicted that the debris flow activities will last for an additional 50 years or more.

TECTONIC EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN KUNLUN AND KARAKORAM MOUNTAINS—SOME NEW OBSERVATIONS FROM A MULTI-DISCIPLINARY GEOSCIENTIFIC TRANSECT (MGT) IN NW TIBET

New results from deep seismic sounding reveal that the Tarim block (basin) was subducted, with gently dipping, to the W.Kunlun Mts. The depths of Moho from north to south are 50km in S.Tarim to 65km in the W. Kunlun Mts. A low velocity and low resistivity layer occurs at the depth of 15～30km, which may be the decollement in the upper crust. A “delamination Crack" might have been formed in the lower crust\|mantle lid, causing the intrusion of alkaline magma along the southern margin of the W. Kunlun Mts. A detailed research for forming and evolving of the Kudi ophiolite in the central part of the W. Kunlun Mts.,which has been given the age of 700～450Ma by using the Re\|Os isotopic dating, and the Radiolarits in chert intercalated with pillow lava are determined to be the late Ordovician to Silurian. Until now we did not find any complete ophiolite suite except Kudi ophiolite. So we suggest that there was no “vast protero\|ocean", and a “limited oceanic basin" exists only during the late Proterozoic to Early Paleozoic, which might have been subducted in Silurian\|Devonian and formed the oldest suture in the north of the Tibet plateau.A suture zone consisting of H. P/T metamorphic blueschist, ophiolitic melange and olistostrome in the north\|western Tibet has been revealed recently, which may extend to NW. connecting with MKT in N. Pakistan.A study of the Fission track thermochronology indicates that the W.Kunlun Mts. has been undergone a pulsatory uplift since 20～18Ma,and a rapid uplift after 3Ma.A model of collision between the Indo\|Pakistan subcontinent\|N.Tibet and the Eurasian blocks of Tarim has been illustrated.

Mathematical modelling of nonlinear behaviour of seismicity

In this paper,the nonlinear behaviour of seismic activities has been studied by means of the threshold autoregressive model and the exponential autoregressive model. The contents are as follows: ① The theories and modelling methods of this two models have been studied.② One kind of explanation for the seismic cycle and order structure are given by means of the threshold autoregressive model.③ According to the exponential autoregressive model,an inherent structure of the magnitude series are discussed,the different relations between magnitude and frequency in active period and quiet period are also explained in this paper.

Extensional structures of the Nan'an Basin in the rifting tip of the South China Sea: Implication for tectonic evolution of the southwestern continental margin

Nan'an Basin is a giant hydrocarbon basin,but its tectonic division scheme and associated fault systems has not been well understood.Based on newly acquired seismic data from the southwestern margin of the South China Sea,this study analyzed the structural units,tectonic feature and geodynamics of the sedimentary basin.The new data suggests that the Nan0 an Basin is a rift basin oriented in the NE-SW direction,rather than a pull-apart basin induced by strike-slip faults along the western margin.The basin is a continuation of the rifts in the southwest South China Sea since the late Cretaceous.It continued rifting until the middle Miocene,even though oceanic crust occurred in the Southwest Subbasin.However,it had no transfer surface at the end of spreading,where it was characterized by a late middle Miocene unconformity(reflector T3).The Nan'an Basin can be divided into eight structural units by a series of NE-striking faults.This study provides evidences to confirm the relative importance and interplay between regional strike-slips and orthogonal displacement during basin development and deformation.The NE-SW-striking dominant rift basin indicates that the geodynamic drivers of tectonic evolution in the western margin of the South China Sea did not have a large strike-slip mechanism.Therefore,we conclude that a large strike-slip fault system did not exist in the western margin of the South China Sea.

The Characteristics of Recent Geodetic Deformation and Seismicity in North-South Seismic Zone and East of the Qinghai-Xizang Block

In this paper,the corresponding relation of the evolutionary characteristics of geodetic deformation fields with seismic activity for more than 20 years in the North-South seismic zone and East of Qinghai-Xizang Mess has been investigated.Not only is geodetic deformation in non-homogeneity for the space-time distribution but also deformation fields are in macroscopic similarity for the identical time interval.The inherited tectonic movement is a total tendency of recent crustal movement,and the motion mode is in undulations.There are stages of accumulation and release-adjusting of strain energy in crustal movement processes,which may be the dynamic mechanism of relatively quiet and active seismicity.The analysis of the crustal movement tendency since 1991 is of some significance for judging the stress state and the large seismic situation in the area.

Relation Between the Evolution of Earthquake Precursory Field and the Nonlinear Concentration of Energy

The evolutional process of precursory fields for the Tangshan earthquake with MS7.8 and the Datong earthquake with MS6.1 was simulated by using the process of regional energy concentration for the nonlinear vibration in inhomogeneous media. The results show that the various precursory features observed during the seismogenic process would be related with the nonlinear concentration of energy in the crust.

Orthogonal expansion of ground motion and PDEM-based seismic response analysis of nonlinear structures

This paper introduces an orthogonal expansion method for general stochastic processes. In the method, a normalized orthogonal function of time variable t is first introduced to carry out the decomposition of a stochastic process and then a correlated matrix decomposition technique, which transforms a correlated random vector into a vector of standard uncorrelated random variables, is used to complete a double orthogonal decomposition of the stochastic processes. Considering the relationship between the Hartley transform and Fourier transform of a real-valued function, it is suggested that the first orthogonal expansion in the above process is carried out using the Hartley basis function instead of the trigonometric basis function in practical applications. The seismic ground motion is investigated using the above method. In order to capture the main probabilistic characteristics of the seismic ground motion, it is proposed to directly carry out the orthogonal expansion of the seismic displacements. The case study shows that the proposed method is feasible to represent the seismic ground motion with only a few random variables. In the second part of the paper, the probability density evolution method （PDEM） is employed to study the stochastic response of nonlinear structures subjected to earthquake excitations. In the PDEM, a completely uncoupled one-dimensional partial differential equation, the generalized density evolution equation, plays a central role in governing the stochastic seismic responses of the nonlinear structure. The solution to this equation will yield the instantaneous probability density function of the responses. Computational algorithms to solve the probability density evolution equation are described. An example, which deals with a nonlinear frame structure subjected to stochastic ground motions, is illustrated to validate the above approach.

Monitoring of velocity changes based on seismic ambient noise: A brief review and perspective

Over the past two decades,the development of the ambient noise cross-correlation technology has spawned the exploration of underground structures.In addition,ambient noise-based monitoring has emerged because of the feasibility of reconstructing the continuous Green’s functions.Investigating the physical properties of a subsurface medium by tracking changes in seismic wave velocity that do not depend on the occurrence of earthquakes or the continuity of artificial sources dramatically increases the possibility of researching the evolution of crustal deformation.In this article,we outline some state-of-the-art techniques for noise-based monitoring,including moving-window cross-spectral analysis,the stretching method,dynamic time wrapping,wavelet cross-spectrum analysis,and a combination of these measurement methods,with either a Bayesian least-squares inversion or the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method.We briefly state the principles underlying the different methods and their pros and cons.By elaborating on some typical noisebased monitoring applications,we show how this technique can be widely applied in different scenarios and adapted to multiples scales.We list classical applications,such as following earthquake-related co-and postseismic velocity changes,forecasting volcanic eruptions,and tracking external environmental forcing-generated transient changes.By monitoring cases having different targets at different scales,we point out the applicability of this technology for disaster prediction and early warning of small-scale reservoirs,landslides,and so forth.Finally,we conclude with some possible developments of noise-based monitoring at present and summarize some prospective research directions.To improve the temporal and spatial resolution of passive-source noise monitoring,we propose integrating different methods and seismic sources.Further interdisciplinary collaboration is indispensable for comprehensively interpreting the observed changes.

Serviceability evaluation of water supply networks under seismic loads utilizing their operational physical mechanism

The serviceability of water supply networks(WSNs)under seismic loads has significant importance for estimating the probable losses and the impact of diminished functionality on affected communities.The innovation presented in this paper is suggesting a new strategy to evaluate the seismic serviceability of WSNs,utilizing their operational physical mechanism.On one hand,this method can obtain the seismic serviceability of each node as well as entire WSNs.On the other hand,this method can dynamically reflect the propagation of randomness from ground motions to WSNs.First,a finite element model is established to capture the seismic response of buried pipe networks,and a leakage model is suggested to obtain the leakage area of WSNs.Second,the transient flow analysis of WSNs with or without leakage is derived to obtain dynamic water flow and pressure.Third,the seismic serviceability of WSNs is analyzed based on the probability density evolution method(PDEM).Finally,the seismic serviceability of a real WSN in Mianzhu city is assessed to illustrate the method.The case study shows that randomness from the ground motions can obviously affect the leakage state and the probability density of the nodal head during earthquakes.

Characteristics of seismic reflections in central region of the South China Sea and their geological significance

More than 4 000 km 48-channel seismic reflection data from the central region of the South China Sea have been interpreted. Five seismic interfaces have been distinguished, named T1, T2, T4, T6 and Tg respectively Meanwhile, five seismic sequences numbered I - V have been divided with the ages of Quaternary and Pliocene, Later Mocene, Earlier and Middle Miocene, Oligocene and Pre- Oligocene separately. Sequences I-II overlie all parts of the area. In the continental slope and island slope, Sequences III-V are mainly found in the grabens. Sequence III is found at moot profiles of the deep-sea basin, and Sequnce IV is seen not only at the margins of the east subbasin but also at the margins of the southwest subbasin. Strong reflection from Moho is found at most profiles of the deep-sea basin. The depth of Moho varies between 10 and 12 km, with a thickness of 6- 8 km for the crust. Calculated by age-basement depth correlation formula, the age of basaltic basement in the southwest subbasin is 51-39 Ma. It is indicated that the evolution of the southwest subbasin is simultaneous with or earlier than that of the east subbasin.

Seismic swarm intelligence inversion with sparse probability distribution of reflectivity

Seismic inversion,such as velocity and impedance,is an ill-posed problem.To solve this problem,swarm intelligence(SI)algorithms have been increasingly applied as the global optimization approach,such as differential evolution(DE)and particle swarm optimization(PSO).Based on the well logs,the sparse probability distribution(PD)of the reflectivity distribution is spatial stationarity.Therefore,we proposed a general SI scheme with constrained by a priori sparse distribution of the reflectivity,which helps to provide more accurate potential solutions for the seismic inversion.In the proposed scheme,as two key operations,the creating of probability density function library and probability transformation are inserted into standard SI algorithms.In particular,two targeted DE-PD and PSO-PD algorithms are implemented.Numerical example of Marmousi2 model and field example of gas hydrates show that the DE-PD and PSO-PD estimate better inversion solutions than the results of the original DE and PSO.In particular,the DE-PD is the best performer both in terms of mean error and fitness value of velocity and impendence inversion.Overall,the proposed SI with sparse distribution scheme is feasible and effective for seismic inversion.