■Shanghai has always been China'smost receptive city.During the nineteenthcentury,while the rest of the country clungto provincial traditions,Shanghai hadbegun to act as a gateway to the rest ofthe world.Along wi...■Shanghai has always been China'smost receptive city.During the nineteenthcentury,while the rest of the country clungto provincial traditions,Shanghai hadbegun to act as a gateway to the rest ofthe world.Along with the opium展开更多
In this study,a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)-based ensemble modeling system is proposed to project future flood occurrences for the River Thames using downscaled high-resolution climate projections from the latest ge...In this study,a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)-based ensemble modeling system is proposed to project future flood occurrences for the River Thames using downscaled high-resolution climate projections from the latest general circulation models(GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The BMA-based ensemble modeling system integrates multiple hydrological models into the BMA framework to enhance the accuracy of hydrological forecasting,which has shown good performance in validation with the NSE higher 0.91,KGE approaching 0.80,and correlation coefficient higher than 0.96.Daily projections of precipitation and temperature under all four shared socioeconomic pathways were obtained from three GCM models and were further employed to project future potential evaporation.The BMA-based ensemble modeling system was then used to forecast annual maximum flood rates and associated 3-day maximum flood volumes in the future.Our results show that the three GCM models exhibit considerable differences in terms of future flood projections,but all indicate a general increase in flood occurrence and magnitude under future climate change scenarios.The future daily flood events under different climate scenarios are likely to become more severe,as indicated by higher mean,maximum,and 90th quantile values of the AMAX flood series.Meanwhile,the corresponding 3-day flood volumes show varying patterns in terms of mean and extreme flood volumes under different scenarios,but we would have more chances to experience severe 3-day flood volumes in future.The results of our study can provide important information for flood risk management and adaptation planning in the River Thames basin.展开更多
It has been suggested Clause 33 of Magna Carta 1215 pertained to salmon and provided a legal foundation for English fishing because of the abolition of the king＇s fish-weirs. This commentary is a misunderstanding ...It has been suggested Clause 33 of Magna Carta 1215 pertained to salmon and provided a legal foundation for English fishing because of the abolition of the king＇s fish-weirs. This commentary is a misunderstanding since the Clause was not intended to rectify the king or his officers＇ behavior. Besides, the disappearance offish-weirs did not come about out of concern for the fisheries themselves, but owing to the navigation of the river This mistaken interpretation regarding Magna Carta may be comfirmed by the history of salmon fishery itself, because the fish did not disappear from the river till the middle of the 19^th century. This fact is an important evidence that the clause was violated and infringed. It also shows the clause seems to have had limited effect. It is clear that the clause not only failed to keep the Thames clear for ships, but also failed to provide a legal foundation for English fishing.展开更多
文摘■Shanghai has always been China'smost receptive city.During the nineteenthcentury,while the rest of the country clungto provincial traditions,Shanghai hadbegun to act as a gateway to the rest ofthe world.Along with the opium
基金supported by the Royal Society International Exchanges Program(IESR2202075)
文摘In this study,a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)-based ensemble modeling system is proposed to project future flood occurrences for the River Thames using downscaled high-resolution climate projections from the latest general circulation models(GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The BMA-based ensemble modeling system integrates multiple hydrological models into the BMA framework to enhance the accuracy of hydrological forecasting,which has shown good performance in validation with the NSE higher 0.91,KGE approaching 0.80,and correlation coefficient higher than 0.96.Daily projections of precipitation and temperature under all four shared socioeconomic pathways were obtained from three GCM models and were further employed to project future potential evaporation.The BMA-based ensemble modeling system was then used to forecast annual maximum flood rates and associated 3-day maximum flood volumes in the future.Our results show that the three GCM models exhibit considerable differences in terms of future flood projections,but all indicate a general increase in flood occurrence and magnitude under future climate change scenarios.The future daily flood events under different climate scenarios are likely to become more severe,as indicated by higher mean,maximum,and 90th quantile values of the AMAX flood series.Meanwhile,the corresponding 3-day flood volumes show varying patterns in terms of mean and extreme flood volumes under different scenarios,but we would have more chances to experience severe 3-day flood volumes in future.The results of our study can provide important information for flood risk management and adaptation planning in the River Thames basin.
文摘It has been suggested Clause 33 of Magna Carta 1215 pertained to salmon and provided a legal foundation for English fishing because of the abolition of the king＇s fish-weirs. This commentary is a misunderstanding since the Clause was not intended to rectify the king or his officers＇ behavior. Besides, the disappearance offish-weirs did not come about out of concern for the fisheries themselves, but owing to the navigation of the river This mistaken interpretation regarding Magna Carta may be comfirmed by the history of salmon fishery itself, because the fish did not disappear from the river till the middle of the 19^th century. This fact is an important evidence that the clause was violated and infringed. It also shows the clause seems to have had limited effect. It is clear that the clause not only failed to keep the Thames clear for ships, but also failed to provide a legal foundation for English fishing.
