Analytic Hierarchy Process for Technological Risks in the Process of Innovative Drug Development in China

Objective To identify the critical risks in the process of innovative drug research and development,and to provide reference for improving the efficiency of innovative drug development and risk control in China.Methods Expert investigation and analytic hierarchy process were used to determine the weights of different risks.Results and Conclusion The research and analysis results showed that the risks at different stages of development had different effects on the success rate of drug development,among which the risk at the drug discovery stage influenced the most.In the drug discovery stage,inappropriate target selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development.The lack of appropriate cell tissue or animal models had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from the discovery of a compound to the application for clinical trials.The difference in changes between nonclinical and clinical studies had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from early clinical studies to pivotal clinical studies.Incorrect dose selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from pivotal clinical studies to marketing authorization applications.The biggest impact from the marketing authorization application to the approval stage was inadequate communication with regulators.After investigating the weight of risk factors in the process of innovative drug development based on scientific methods,a new perspective for the risk control of new drug development and improving the research and development efficiency is provided.

Assessment and Application of Beach Quality Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process in Yangkou Beach, Qingdao

The whole-beach quality assessment is the basis of building and preserving beautiful beaches.The beach quality assessment index system and assessment standard have been established based on the attributes of beaches(including the width,slope,landform,and types),sorting coefficient,and softness degree of surface sediment.The assessment weight of each index for quality evaluation was analyzed using the analytic hierarchy process,and comprehensive scores of selected beach profiles were calculated in accordance with the light assessment standard.A beach quality evaluation model based on index weight and scores was established in this paper.The factors of 12 profiles of Yangkou Beach in Qingdao City were surveyed to carry out a quality assessment,and the comprehensive scores of each profile were calculated in accordance with the evaluation model.The results showed that the quality of Yangkou Beach can be divided into four ratings:excellent,good,medium,and poor.The excellent-quality area includes a wide and flat dry beach zone and soft,flat,and clean intertidal and subtidal zones covered with well-sorted fine sand,and leisure sports,such as volleyball,running,and swimming,are suitable for tourists.The good-quality area features a slightly narrow and dry beach zone,moderately soft and uneven intertidal and subtidal zones covered with fine sand and a small tidal gully,and a small amount of foreign matter;leisure sports,such as walking and running,are suitable for tourists.This study recommends the building of fixed drainage ditches or underground culverts to reduce the tidal gully.The medium-quality area consisted of a narrow and dry beach zone,moderately soft and uneven intertidal and subtidal zones covered by poorly sorted medium sand,a tide ditch,and a small amount of foreign matter.In this area,walking is suitable for tourists.Sand should be supplemented in the intertidal zone.The poor-quality area contained a very narrow and dry beach zone covered with poor-sorted gravel,a very chaotic intertidal zone with a considerable amount of foreign matters,such as bricks and rocks,wide tidal ditches,and an uneven subtidal zone with some reefs;leisure sports are unsuitable here.Thus,foreign matter and reefs should be removed,and the dry beach zone should be supplemented with sand.Therefore,the beach quality assessment is a very useful tool for building beautiful beaches.

Application of an analytic hierarchy process to hydrocarbon accumulation coefficient estimation

The hydrocarbon accumulation coefficient is a key parameter in resources evaluation by genetic techniques. Methods of obtaining its value scientifically have always been an important factor influencing evaluation credibility. In this paper, the hydrocarbon accumulation system is evaluated quantitatively by establishing a hierarchy structure model based on an analytical hierarchy process. The hydrocarbon accumulation system of a higher exploration degree is selected as a calibration area and its hydrocarbon accumulation coefficient can be calculated using methods of hydrocarbon generation potential and reservoir-scale sequence. The hydrocarbon accumulation coefficient of a petroleum accumulation system can be gained by analogy of reservoir forming comprehensive evaluation results with the calibration area. The hydrocarbon accumulation coefficient of each petroleum accumulation system in the upper reservoir-forming combination of the Liaohe Western Sag can be obtained with this method. Practice shows that using the analytical hierarchy process to quantitatively evaluate the hydrocarbon accumulation system and then quantitatively predict the hydrocarbon accumulation coefficient decreases the influence of human factors in resources evaluation, and makes the resources assessment more objective and closer to the actual geological condition.

METHOD FOR BRIDGE BEARING CAPACITY ASSESSMENT BASED ON ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

By analyzing the existing methods for the bridge bearing capacity assessment, an analytic hierarchy pro cess estimation model with a variable weight and fuzzy description is proposed based on the nondestructive infor mation. Considering the actual strength, the bearing capacity is first calculated from its design state, and then modified based on the detection information. The modification includes the section reduction and the structure deterioration. The section reduction involves the concrete section and the steel cross-section reduction. The structure deterioration is decided by six factors, i.e. , the concrete surface damage, the actual concrete strength, the steel corrosion electric potential, the chloride ion content, the carbonization depth, and the protective layer depth. The initial weight of each factor is calculated by the expert judgment matrix using an analytic hierarchy process. The consistency approximation and the error transfer theory are used. Then, the variable weight is in- troduced to expand the influences of factors in the worse state. Finally, an actual bridge is taken as an example to verify the proposed method. Results show that the estimated capacity agrees well with that of the load test, thus the method is objective and credible

A min-max optimization approach for weight determination in analytic hierarchy process

A min-max optimization method is proposed as a new approach to deal with the weight determination problem in the context of the analytic hierarchy process. The priority is obtained through minimizing the maximal absolute difference between the weight vector obtained from each column and the ideal weight vector. By transformation, the. constrained min- max optimization problem is converted to a linear programming problem, which can be solved using either the simplex method or the interior method. The Karush-Kuhn- Tucker condition is also analytically provided. These control thresholds provide a straightforward indication of inconsistency of the pairwise comparison matrix. Numerical computations for several case studies are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed method with three existing methods. This observation illustrates that the min-max method controls maximum deviation and gives more weight to non- dominate factors.

Analytic Hierarchy Process for Evaluating Flipped Classroom Learning

In reality,the flipped classroom has gained popularity as a modern way of structuring teaching,where lectures move from in-class procedures to digitally-based assignments,freeing up the debate,and practice exercises class time.Therefore,it is essential to implement and analyze a way of teaching that will improve student performance.The paper aims to develop a model of the method of teaching science in Iraqi schools,and to assess whether teaching flipped classroom affects the achievement,motivation,and creative thinking of students by using the methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making(MCDM)in the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).The AHP approach includes several steps,including setting assessment criteria and their weights,and by assessing the methodology of the flipped classroom as compared to the conventional cognitive learning process.An experiment was carried out in Iraqi secondary schools to examine the attitude of the students towards the subject of Chemistry.The findings have indicated that the students and teachers favored flipped classroom learning more than conventional cognitive learning.The study took the following parameters compared to the traditional approach:teaching techniques,learning flexibility,teaching aids effectiveness,student participation and working environment.This paper indicates that the teachers in Iraqi schools will be able to improve and do more preparation to shift towards flipped learning in the classroom.

GIS Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping with Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in District Ghizer, Gilgit Baltistan Pakistan

District Ghizer is a rugged mountainous territory which experiences several landslides each year. There are 16 major landslide areas and 53 villages that are at high risk to hazards. Keeping in view the severity of natural hazards, the present study was designed to generate landslide susceptibility map based on twelve causative factors viz., slope, aspect, elevation, drainage network, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), lithological units, fault lines, rainfall, road network, land cover and soil texture. Soil texture was determined by particle size analysis and data for other factors were acquired from freely available sources. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to identify major landslide causative factors in the district Ghizer. Further, a temporal assessment from 1999 till 2015 was generated to assess the impact of land cover change on landslides. It indicated that the barren soil/ exposed rocks and glaciers have reduced while the vegetation and water classes have shown increment. The total area that lies in moderate to very high landslide susceptible zones was 74.38%, while slope is the main landslide causative factor in the district Ghizer. Validation of the susceptibility map showed 88.1% of the landslides in the study area had occurred in the moderate to very high susceptible zones.

Landfill Siting Using GIS and AHP （Analytical Hierarchy Process）： A Case Study AI-Qasim Qadhaa, Babylon, Iraq

The selection of a landfill site is considered as a complicated task because this process is based on many factors and restrictions. For Al-Qasim Qadhaa, which is situated in the southern part of the Babylon Governorate, Iraq, there is no landfill site in that area that conforms to the scientific criteria for selecting sites for landfill. For this reason, 15 criteria were adopted in this study （groundwater depth, rivers, soil types, agriculture lands use, land use, elevation, slope, gas pipelines, oil pipelines, power lines, roads, railways, urban centers, villages and archaeological sites） using GIS （geographic information system）, which has a large ability to manage input data. In addition, the AHP （analytical hierarchy process） method was used to derive the relative weightings for each criterion using pair-wise comparison. To obtain the suitability index for candidate landfill sites, a weighted linear combination method was used. After combining these methods, two suitable candidate landfill sites, with areas of 2.766 km2 and 2.055 km2, respectively, were found to satisfy the scientific and environmental requirements. The area of these sites can accommodate solid waste from 2020 until 2030 based on the required area, which was 0.702 km2.

Quality Evaluation of Threshing and Redrying Process Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

Improving the stability of the homogenization process to achieve the homogeneity of tobacco products is one of important targets for the redrying industry.According to the specification for threshing and redrying process,a total of 14 indicators in three categories that affect the quality of the threshing and redrying process were selected.Using analytic hierarchy process,combined with expert experiences,a judgment matrix was constructed to conduct consistency test.The weights of indices in production were obtained.This will help in evaluating the actual production quality,finding the weak links of process and adjusting the parameters of the corresponding links in a targeted manner,thereby improving the quality of production process.

基于层次分析灰色定权聚类的煤层气开发甜点预测方法——以柿庄北区块为例

随着煤层气产业的发展以及非常规油气勘探开发一体化的要求,当前煤层气的勘查评价工作逐渐由勘探选区向开发甜点选区推进。然而,受限于勘探开发阶段或资料占有程度,当前多数的选区评价体系对煤储层的可改性和煤层气的可采性考虑不足,在指导开发区井位优选或加密井方面效果不佳。基于沁水盆地柿庄北区块100余口煤层气参数井和开发井资料,分析区内3号煤层煤层气开发的资源条件、储层可改造性和煤层气可采性,采用层次分析和灰色定权聚类方法构建评价模型,评价了煤层气开发甜点区,为区内新井和加密井的部署提供依据。评价模型以煤层含气量、煤厚反映煤层气资源条件;综合考虑地应力环境和岩石力学性质,构建储层综合可改造性参数,评价储层可改造性;使用原始结构煤和碎裂煤占比、临储比和储层原始渗透率反映煤层气的可采性。每个参数采用word聚类方法分级,每个点位(每口井)计算出综合优度并排序,最终划分出煤层气开发甜点区。评价结果表明,研究区中部综合优度大于65的地区为进一步开展开发工作的甜点区。

考虑洪涝灾害风险的县域应急避难场所选址模型

为提升应急避难场所在灾害管理过程中的服务水平,从洪涝灾害的视角出发,选取致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承载体脆弱性、防灾减灾能力4个指标,采用层次分析法(AHP)-熵权法模型,识别出洪涝灾害风险的空间分布,并将其风险值作为权重引入最小化未覆盖风险,同时,结合最小化加权疏散距离、最小化可达性差异,从公平性、效率性、均衡性视角,构建多目标避难场所选址模型;采用改进的非支配排序遗传算法Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解模型,并以莆田市仙游县现有避难场所布局为例,验证模型。结果表明:对比现有的避难场所布局,优化后的布局方案中总疏散距离、未覆盖风险值及可达性差异性系数分别平均降低35.90%、61.47%、33.62%。

高校大学生实验室安全意识评价模型的构建

为减少实验室安全事故的发生和提高大学生的实验室安全意识,设计了实验室安全意识影响因素调查问卷和大学生实验室安全意识评价调查问卷,利用层次分析法—熵权法(AHP-EWM)主客观相结合的方法建立高校大学生实验室安全意识评价体系。通过主成分分析法(PCA)处理,再选取累计贡献率超过95%的评价指标进行布谷鸟搜索(Cuckoo Search, CS),最后结合混合优化支持向量机(SVM)建立PCA-CS-SVM大学生实验室安全意识评价模型。验证结果表明,与PCA-LS-SVM和PCA-GA-SVM模型相比,PCA-CS-SVM模型的预测值与实际值的误差较小且评价等级与实际值保持一致,具有较高的准确性和可靠性,可用于高校大学生实验室安全意识评价。

黄河流域生态敏感性评价研究

以黄河流域为研究对象,依据地形条件、自然环境和人类活动3个方面,选取了7个指标,构建了生态敏感性评价体系,采用AHP层次分析法确定各指标权重,运用GIS加权叠加法对黄河流域生态敏感性进行综合评价。结果表明:黄河流域生态敏感性的空间分布存在显著差异,呈现出中上游高、下游低的分布格局,整体上中敏感区占主导地位,面积达33.59万km^(2),占流域总面积的42.25%,高敏感区和极高敏感区面积17.37万km^(2),占流域总面积的21.85%。

组合赋权法在卷烟机综合性能评价中应用

【目的】客观准确地评价卷烟机设备性能,从质量水平、消耗水平和效能水平3个维度出发,构建设备综合性能评价指标体系和组合赋权评价模型。【方法】利用最大熵原理给出最优组合系数和方案评价计算步骤。开展Topsis方法、层次分析法、熵值法和组合赋权法在卷烟机设备综合性能评价的实例分析和比较工作。【结果】4种方法具有显著正相关关系,评价结果满足一致性。组合赋权法与其他评价方法相比具有最优组合系数和误差平方和小优势。

多场景下基于AHP-EWM的人体健康状态评估模型研究

为解决人体健康评估方法个性化监测不足的问题以及在满足不同场景下健康状态精细化评估的需求,需要一种基于多场景的人体健康状态评估方法来实现长期自动化监测。提出一种基于层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法(EWM)组合的多场景人体健康状态评估模型。首先采集人体在运动、休息、工作/学习和娱乐等4种不同场景下的健康监测指标数据,构建相应的评估指标体系。然后分别根据评估指标计算出AHP和EWM权重,再采用量子粒子群优化(QPSO)算法对AHP和EWM中的主客观权重进行分配,以确保评价指标占比的客观性。最后通过模糊综合评价法对人体健康状态进行评估和量化,并利用实际监测数据对方法的可靠性和稳定性进行验证。实验结果表明,在4种场景下所提方法的综合得分分别为63.78、59.83、58.71和59.21,表明在不同场景下该模型都具有较好的准确性和稳定性。根据评估结果,对测试者的身体状态评价结果进行分析,并给出一些健康建议。所提模型可全面了解人体在不同场景下的健康状况,并为人们提供科学的健康指导,从而为健康管理和疾病预防提供科学依据。

三级中医医院学科综合评价指标体系构建与应用

目的:建立三级中医医院学科综合评价指标体系,在优化学科评价机制的同时提高学科运行管理水平,推动医院学科高质量建设和发展。方法:通过文献分析法和德尔菲专家咨询法,构建多维度的指标体系;运用层次分析法确定指标权重。应用该指标体系对某三级中医医院21个学科进行评估。结果:三级中医医院学科综合评价指标体系包含7个一级指标、20个二级指标和50个三级指标。一级指标包括学术水平、学科队伍、科学研究、医疗服务、教育教学、条件建设、管理水平7个方面,权重分别为0.187、0.199、0.224、0.137、0.122、0.067和0.064,对应的二级指标中,权重最高的分别为学术影响(0.336)、学科带头人(0.527)、专利与成果转化(0.408)、医疗服务能力(0.522)、继续教育与学术传承(0.537)、辅助与质控体系(0.529)和组织管理(0.432)。应用该指标体系对医院21个学科进行实测分析,得分靠前的8个学科中,有7个为国家中医药管理局重点学科,与各学科实际情况基本符合。结论:本研究构建的学科评价指标体系具有较好的科学性和可行性,有助于引导中医医院内部开展学科及时评估,提升学科整体管理水平。

基于改进方法的承德地表水环境质量评价

为客观反映地表水水质状况,采用层次分析法和熵权法组合赋权以及加权平均综合评价原则改进模糊综合评价法,并与单因子评价法、内梅罗指数法、传统模糊综合评价法进行比较,评价承德地区地表水环境质量。结果表明:2021年承德地区地表水水质有明显的时空差异性,除7—9月的部分断面水质为较差外,其余断面水质均在Ⅰ~Ⅲ类;影响承德地区地表水水质的主要因子为COD_(Mn)和TP;单因子评价法和内梅罗指数法无法反映整体水质状况,改进的模糊综合评价法相较于传统模糊综合评价法兼顾了各污染因子间相互作用,并弱化了个别水质指标对评价结果的影响,且能够对同一类别水质进行排序,更适用于承德地区地表水环境质量评价。

Box-Behnken响应面法优化复合益生菌发酵三七药渣工艺及体外抗氧化活性研究

目的以三七药渣为原料,通过益生菌发酵比较不同益生菌以及复合益生菌对各指标成分影响的差异,探究最佳发酵工艺。方法采用单因素、Box-Behnken响应面法优化发酵工艺,并通过体外抗氧化实验评价发酵产物的抗氧化能力。结果最佳发酵工艺为有氧发酵48 h、厌氧发酵36 h,嗜热链球菌、两歧双歧杆菌、嗜酸乳杆菌的比例为2∶3∶1,料液比0.14 g·mL^(-1),接菌量5%,温度33℃。在最佳发酵工艺条件下,三七药渣中性多糖、酸性多糖、总黄酮的含量分别提高了105.64%、96.98%、123.83%,相较于单菌发酵均显著升高。发酵产物清除DPPH、ABTS自由基的IC 50值分别为1.774、3.065 mg·mL^(-1),还原Fe^(3+)的能力为0.138 mmol FeSO_(4)·g^(-1),较未发酵药渣显著增强。结论最佳发酵工艺能显著提高三七药渣中各指标成分含量,显著增强其抗氧化能力,相较单菌发酵各指标成分含量均显著提高,提示上述益生菌之间没有明显的拮抗作用。研究结果为三七药渣的资源化利用提供了科学依据和数据支撑。

基于正交试验的粒子群优化算法对火焰原子吸收光谱法分析金元素参数的优化

国内新一轮战略找矿行动全面启动,金矿产资源以其独特的稀有性和战略性具有特殊意义,其分析检测技术直接影响金元素的准确测试。以矿石中金元素为研究对象,采用正交试验设计方案对实验要素中的王水浓度、振荡时间和硫脲浓度进行方法测试,测定结果相对误差为量化指标;按照层次分析法(AHP)中确定要素指标、建立矩阵、一致性判断步骤计算要素权重为(0.252,0.159,0.589),通过客观赋权(CRITIC)法计算正交试验数据的对比强度和冲突性,计算要素权重为(0.452,0.172,0.377),提出基于AHP-CRITIC混合加权算法对要素权重综合分析,其结果为(0.314,0.075,0.611);利用粒子群算法构建粒子多维空间,通过粒子的速度和方向属性迭代位置设计算法流程图,在迭代过程中结合混合加权算法结果通过线性递减的方式校正惯性权重,优化粒子在迭代初期和末期的学习因子,结合正交试验结果利用粒子群算法建立目标适应度函数,改进算法流程,应用MATLAB软件仿真模拟粒子群迭代过程,从全局各位置和方向逐渐向最优组合收敛,得到优化后的粒子群算法寻找原子吸收光谱法分析金元素的最佳条件参数为王水浓度10.62%、振荡时间32.8 min、硫脲浓度9.5 g·L^(-1)。粒子群优化算法验证结果表明,在分析条件最优化参数下对金标准分析物质GAu-15a、GAu-16b、GAu-17b、GAu-18b、GAu-19b、GAu-22a进行11次平行性试验测试,计算其平均值、相对误差和相对标准偏差指标,均满足《地质矿产实验室测试质量管理规范》,表明基于正交试验的粒子群优化算法对于原子吸收光谱法分析金元素参数的优化问题科学可行,验证了该优化算法的正确性和稳定性,对国内新一轮战略找矿事业提供新的研究思路。该方法提出混合加权算法结合进化计算技术对多目标参数寻求最优解,有望拓展于分析实验室其他领域的测试环境,更展望应用于寻求参数优化方向的科学研究中。

采用云重心评判法的港口船舶溢油综合应急能力评价

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