Advancing the Multilateral Regional Cooperation in Economy and Trade with the Scheme Reform of Zero Tariffs

China＇s tariff arrangement in the transition period after ＂entry to WTO＂ influences the process of the multilateral trade system in the world. Establishing the free trade area and customs union according to WTO/GATS 1994 article 24, or according to authorizing the clause （Enabling Clause ） to sign the regional trade agreement between developing countries or signed the protocol of economic integration taking promoting and serving the liberalization of trade as purpose according to WTO/GATS article 5, include the regional trade agreement in the multilateral trade system frame to standardize, supervise and coordinate to China, reduce trade protectionism and improve the multilateral trade system＇s influence in the world greatly. Drawing lessons from CEPA and China the system of the manoeuvre ahead of time of overall ＂entry to WTO＂ of ASEAN Free Trade Area and arrange, accelerate multilateral regional cooperation in economy and trade, zero tariff scheme reform favors route choice.

Optimal Tariff and Endogenous Drivers for Trade Liberalization

Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying drivers of trade liberalization.Parametric calibration and simulation methods based on the numeric general equilibrium model are employed to estimate the optimal tariff rates of countries with and without trade retaliation.Then,near-reality assumptions are added into the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the cross-border capital flow,multi-country assumption and trade cost,to simulate decreasing optimal tariff rates.The simulation results suggest that world economic development has increased the economic ties and interdependence among nations,making trade liberalization an endogenous optimal choice.The backlash against globalization in recent years is motivated by short-term factors,but will not persist in the long run since it goes against the law of economic growth and socio-economic development.

An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement＇s economic and environmental impacts on China

Recently, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea （Korea） are conducting a government-commis- sioned feasibility study on the Free Trade Agreement among the three countries （CJKFTA） to form a regional free trade zone in East Asia. Considering that freer trade can cause unexpected impact on domestic environment, there is a need to evaluate the environmental impact of such a trade policy. This move should be made to help negotiators understand and pay more attention to environ- mental issues during CJKFTA negotiations, and to help lobby with the government to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaptation or mitigation. Following the Chain Reaction Assessment Method that integrates and links the elements of trade, production, and environment, the present research aims to quantitatively assess CJKFTA＇s possible impact on China＇s environment. This is done by estimating the variations of China＇s major conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases （GHGs） emission in two policy scenarios to represent CJKFTA＇s scale and composition effects on China＇s environment. Estimating the variations is based on a static Computable General Equilibrium model, working with Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） 7 database and China＇s energy- environment statistics. Based on these assessments, CJKFTA is predicted to lead to notable environmental impact, including increased emissions of agricultural total nitrogen, agricultural total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, and GHGs. On the other hand, decreased emissions of industrial SO2 and dust are also expected to happen. Suitable policies need to be made to combat negative effects and amplify positive ones, while aiming at a more sustainable regional freer trade system.

On international trade in educational services:an interpretation of the regulations and China’s WTO commitments

The General Agreement on Trade in Services(GATS)of the World Trade Organization(WTO)covers educational trade services.Hence,all the regulations of the GATS have to be followed in the international trade of educational services.Having acceded to the WTO,China is starting to fulfill the rights and obligations as a member by completely respecting international trade,services and intellectual property laws.At the same time,it is also starting to fulfill some of the commitments it made in the GATS,such as expanding activities on trade in educational services.Comprehending the fundamental regulations and China’s commitments is significant towards promoting China’s international trade in educational services.

“发展中国家”概念何以引发争议?——GATT框架下的概念史考察

“发展中国家”是全球治理中的一个基础性概念,近年来却成为国际话语场域中的争议性概念。考察关税及贸易总协定框架下“发展中国家”概念的历史,对于厘清相关争议的缘起和进一步理解国际话语竞争具有重要价值。“发展中国家”概念在GATT框架下经历了三个阶段:20世纪50年代以修订GATT1947第18条为代表的概念孕育阶段,60年代以增加GATT1947第四部分为代表的概念萌芽阶段和70年代以后以普惠制、差别优惠待遇及“毕业原则”等为代表的概念流行阶段。GATT框架下的“发展中国家”概念展现出模糊甚至混乱的特征,为日后世界贸易组织的相关争议埋下了隐患。西方发达国家在这一概念的塑造过程中注入了自身的价值观,而发展中国家的参与却十分有限,这也为当今的国际话语竞争提供了重要的启示。

China's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN,Japan and Korea:A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia ＇s recovery from the recent global finaneial and economic crisis highlights China ＇s position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements （FTAs） with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast-growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China＇s FTAs with East Asian major economies： China-ASEAN, China-Japan, China-Korea and ASEAN＋ 3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China ＂s output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN＋ 3. Because forming a region-wide FTA, such as the ASEAN＋ 3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China shouM continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a mediumterm and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a regionwide FTA.

How Will the Implementation of Zero Tariffs Affect Employment in China?

This paper studies the employment effect of China’s possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China s most-favored-nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China’s signed free trade agreements(FTAs)with the tariff concessions in a typical high-standard FTA.It finds that there is a large gap between China s current tariff status and a high-standard FTA,and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries.However,the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous.Analysis at the industrial level shows that,although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs,more jobs would be created in most industries.The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive,creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China.Therefore,China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.

全球价值链影响下的中国关税水平--来自中国制造业的证据

本文基于中国政治经济背景,构建了一个关税影响因素理论模型,且利用2005—2011年中国制造业134个部门的数据,通过OLS和Tobit方法进行了经验验证。结果表明:(1)外国最终产品中的中国增加值越高,或者中国最终产品中的外国增加值越高,则中国对于该产品的关税水平越低;(2)贸易协定的签署不仅会直接降低中国的关税,还会扩大中国增加值上升对关税的负影响,削弱外国增加值上升对关税的负影响。

全球贸易自由化的趋势与难题

随着全球化的展开,当今世界出现了贸易自由化的趋势,同时也存在着贸易保护的倾向。一部分发达国家更加保守,趋向于维护自己的利益而不顾他国利益。它们一边推行保护主义,一边推进结盟,这些动向值得高度关注。全球性的贸易自由化趋势有它自身的逻辑和力量,是不可阻挡的。但同时也得看到,由于各种原因,世界在出现分化,发达的更加发达,不发达的更加不发达,这种倾向不利于经济发展,也不利于和平稳定。中国应该进一步发展经济,增强实力,在世界经济贸易关系中发挥更大作用。

碳边境调节机制与世界贸易组织规则适应性探讨与启示

碳边境调节机制与后疫情时期绿色复苏、国际贸易法规密切相关,并与世界贸易组织规则适应性存在国际争议。分析《关税与贸易总协定》(GATT)具体条款及相关经济体主张,从规则一致性、适用范围及正当性三方面,判断碳关税等机制与世界贸易组织规则的整体适应性。分析发现,碳关税的生产足迹属性和贸易限制属性使其难以符合世界贸易组织的核心原则,但相关经济体可能从世界贸易组织规则的例外条款入手,设计合规的碳边境调节机制。中国应深入测算出口产品的隐含碳排放量,加速碳中和步伐,降低碳边境调节机制的相关影响。

IMF、WB和WTO的比较研究

被誉为世界经济三大支柱的国际货币基金组织、世界银行和关贸总协定 ,自成立以来 ,已走完了半个世纪的风雨历程。它们都对二战后世界经济的复苏和振兴起到了举足轻重的作用。然而 ,关贸总协定及世界贸易组织发展更为迅猛 ,从三大支柱中脱颖而出。展望世界经济发展前景 ,惟有加强三大支柱自身的改革和彼此之间的协调与合作 ,世界经济才能鼎足而立。

特惠贸易协定对果品进出口贸易的影响——基于关税削减的实证分析

构造并运用放松约束的变量系数PCS引力模型，从关税削减角度，分析双边自由贸易区建设对我国水果和坚果产品进出口贸易的影响。研究发现：双边贸易自由化给果品产业发展带来的机遇与挑战并存，关税削减对中国果品进口贸易的影响大于对出口的影响；正在考虑建设的自由贸区一旦建成并在关税上做出较大让步，会有力地促进中国的果品进出口贸易；中国与特惠贸易协定签约国之间的果品贸易中，贸易创造效应与贸易转移效应并存，非关税的贸易便利化措施是中国与部分签约国果品贸易发展的主要推动力。

论美国关税法的演变

自 1789年第 1部关税法颁布以来,贸易保护主义一直是贯穿于美国关税及贸易法案中的主线。从1828年的可憎关税法至 1930年的斯慕特—霍利关税法,美国顽固地推行高关税政策。即使南北战争前的一段低关税时期,也只具有相对的意义。1934年的互惠贸易协定法使关税不再通过立法的形式表现出来,而是由总统与他国的贸易谈判来确立。但国会在贸易上的立法权直接决定了总统在谈判中的关税底线。从这个意义上讲,贸易法取代了关税法。在第二次世界大战结束后,虽然美国大力倡导自由多边贸易政策,但互惠贸易协定法的局限性使之黯然失色。

WTO与美国法关系论

WTO体制与美国贸易法有密切的关系 ,它的产生、制度变迁 ,尤其是其主流价值观受美国法的影响很大。对二者关系的考察有助于我们认识WTO制度与价值观的演变矛盾 。

世界贸易组织成因探析

世界经济贸易的迅速发展和关税与贸易总协定的内在缺陷是导致世界贸易组织产生的主要原因。世界贸易组织的成立 ,进一步完善了世界多边贸易体制 ,满足了时代的要求。

美国贸易政策的历史演变及启示

随着中美贸易摩擦的不断变化,正确认识美国贸易政策的走向与选择,梳理其发展的历史轨迹与演化逻辑,成为剖析当今中美贸易发展形势不可缺少的一环。美国历史上的贸易政策经历了3个阶段:以财政收入为目的的阶段(独立战争到内战时期);实行限制性关税以保护国内产业的阶段(内战到大萧条时期);促成互惠性条约以扩大本国出口的阶段(二战结束后到金融危机以前)。通过梳理这3个时期的贸易政策,分析这3个时期美国国内不同地区、产业和群体的利益分歧,总结了美国贸易政策演化的历史逻辑。研究认为,美国在历史上曾长期实行关税保护政策,二战后美国虽然维持了很长时间的低关税水平,但这是由于这一时期贸易保护的形式转变为各类非关税贸易壁垒;南北战争、大萧条和金融危机等经济环境的变化对美国贸易政策产生了重大影响,但整体上美国的贸易政策在特定历史阶段内保持相对稳定。

中国-东盟《货物贸易协定》下的商机分析

中国-东盟将在2005年7月1日起逐步降低关税,直至2010年将关税降为零。我国企业如何利用中国与东盟的《货物贸易协定》以及其承认我国完全市场经济地位等有利条件,适时进入东盟市场,已成为学术界关注研究的重要课题。

对中国入世“经济增长危害论”的反思

中国加入 WTO引发了一些对入世可能影响新世纪经济增长的悲观论调 ,我们认为关税减让的负面影响可由强化海关监管来减弱 ;对产业的冲击可能引发全局性结构调整 ;对农业的冲击可以由切实减轻农民负担来得以根本缓解 ;对金融业的冲击可通过加速公平税负和规范竞争环境来释放 ;对信息业的冲击可能带来行政垄断的终结。中国入世必然需要慎思谨行 ,但不宜悲观疑惧。

世界贸易组织法视域下的美欧232钢铝协议与中国应对

2021年10月31日达成的美欧232钢铝协议包括“钢铝关税配额安排”和“全球钢铝贸易安排”两项内容,引发全球关注。该协议可能与WTO规则发生冲突:美国根据“钢铝关税配额安排”给予欧盟钢铝产品的关税配额涉嫌违反GATT核心义务,且很难根据其安全例外条款获得正当性;“全球钢铝贸易安排”预想的基于低碳强度标准的钢铝产品进口限制亦涉嫌违反GATT核心义务,很难根据其环保例外条款获得正当性,或者为了获得正当性需要满足第20条(g)项和序言施加的系列条件。钢铝关税配额安排对我国钢铝产品对美出口影响不大,但可能影响232钢铝关税相关WTO争端的解决进程,且消除了美欧结盟遏制中国的一大障碍。中国单独起诉前述钢铝关税配额的意义不大,但仍应通过不同渠道质疑其WTO合法性。全球钢铝贸易安排如全面实施,将会对我国钢铝产品出口产生显著负面影响;连接贸易与气候变化、非市场导向问题的全球钢铝贸易安排很可能只是一个“行业试点”,类似安排有可能复制到其他行业,这会对国际经贸规则演进及我国对外贸易产生深远影响。作为回应,中国应明确反对诸如全球钢铝贸易安排的“小圈子”做法,坚决反对全球钢铝贸易安排中的不合理因素,密切关注全球钢铝贸易安排的谈判和实施进展并质疑其合法性,同时应努力提高国内钢铝生产的清洁度。

CEPA协议实施对内地石油石化业的影响对内地石油石化业的影响

通过解读CEPA协议,论述其对两地经贸关系的推动作用,着重分析有关货物贸易和服务贸易自由化的具体承诺对内地石油石化业的影响。