Analysis of factors influencing carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region and projections of carbon peak scenarios

Based on the supply-side perspective,the improved STIRPAT model is applied to reveal the mechanisms of supply-side factors such as human,capital,technology,industrial synergy,institutions and economic growth on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)through path analysis,and to forecast carbon emissions in the YRD from the baseline scenario,factor regulation scenario and integrated scenario to reach the peak.The results show that:(1)Jiangsu's high carbon emission pattern is the main reason for the YRD hindering the synergistic regulation of carbon emissions.(2)Human factors,institutional factors and economic growth factors can all contribute to carbon emissions in the YRD region,while technological and industrial factors can generally suppress carbon emissions in the YRD region.(3)Under the capital regulation scenario,the YRD region has the highest level of carbon emission synergy,with Jiangsu reaching its peak five years earlier.Under the balanced regulation scenario,the YRD region as a whole,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui reach the peak as scheduled.

Evaluation of Ecological Sustainable Development in the Yangtze River Delta Region Based on Ecological Footprint Theory

The ecological footprint was employed as a quantitative indicator of resource inputs,enabling a detailed account of the structure of biological resources and energy occupancy,as well as the variation of resource productivity in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)Region.From 2004 to 2018,there were notable variations in the ecological productivity of different types of land on basis of China’s equilibrium factor across the three provinces and one city in the YRD region.Jiangsu Province exhibited the highest ecological productivity of arable land,while Anhui Province exhibited the highest ecological productivity of forest land.Shanghai City exhibited the highest ecological productivity of pasture land,while Zhejiang Province exhibited the highest ecological productivity of water area.In 2018,the proportion of arable land within the total ecological carrying capacity of the YRD region reached 74.35%.Furthermore,the contribution of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces to the YRD’s total ecological carrying capacity was 41.36%and 41.26%,respectively.In the construction of a new development pattern in the YRD region,which is dominated by the domestic cycle as the main body and mutually reinforced by domestic and international double-cycle,the YRD region should combine the utilization of natural forces with innovation in science,technology and cooperation mechanisms.Furthermore,the government should guide the concentration of social capital towards green industries.It is also recommended that the moderate reduction of ecological footprints should be encouraged,and that the security of biological resources and energy,the leadership in the field of cutting-edge science and technology should be ensured in YRD region.This will facilitate the formation of a new development pattern of higher-quality integration at the national level firstly.

City Network Evolution Characteristics of Smart Industry: Evidence from Yangtze River Delta, China

The dual-path model of industrial evolution and spatial progression has been widely acknowledged and incorporated into the strategic planning to promote the development of urban industries and regional collaborations.However,current research on inter-enter-prise city networks mainly focuses on the single sector of flows on all enterprise branches,such as product value chains and production factors,but neglects that of particular industry department.Built upon the new economic geography and city networks theory,this paper develops a methodological framework that focuses on the analysis of city network evolution characteristics of smart industry.Particu-larly,a conceptual model of smart industry enterprise-industry-city is proposed and then applied to a case study of smart industry in the Yangtze River Delta Region,China.Using enterprise supplier-customer data,a city network of smart industry is constructed and sub-sequently analyzed with the proposed model.Findings indicate that the smart industry network in Yangtze River Delta Region exhibits a hierarchical structure and the expansion of the network presents a small-world network characteristic.The study not only makes a meth-odological contribution for revealing the industrial and spatial evolution path of the current smart industry,but also provides empirical support for the formulation of new economic development policies focused on smart industries,demonstrating the role of city clusters as carriers of regional synergistic development.

Structural Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Spatial Association Network:A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta City Cluster,China

City cluster is an effective platform for encouraging regionally coordinated development.Coordinated reduction of carbon emissions within city cluster via the spatial association network between cities can help coordinate the regional carbon emission management,realize sustainable development,and assist China in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.This paper applies the improved gravity model and social network analysis(SNA)to the study of spatial correlation of carbon emissions in city clusters and analyzes the structural characteristics of the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)city cluster in China and its influencing factors.The results demonstrate that:1)the spatial association of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster exhibits a typical and complex multi-threaded network structure.The network association number and density show an upward trend,indicating closer spatial association between cities,but their values remain generally low.Meanwhile,the network hierarchy and network efficiency show a downward trend but remain high.2)The spatial association network of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster shows an obvious‘core-edge’distribution pattern.The network is centered around Shanghai,Suzhou and Wuxi,all of which play the role of‘bridges’,while cities such as Zhoushan,Ma'anshan,Tongling and other cities characterized by the remote location,single transportation mode or lower economic level are positioned at the edge of the network.3)Geographic proximity,varying levels of economic development,different industrial structures,degrees of urbanization,levels of technological innovation,energy intensities and environmental regulation are important influencing factors on the spatial association of within the YRD city cluster.Finally,policy implications are provided from four aspects:government macro-control and market mechanism guidance,structural characteristics of the‘core-edge’network,reconfiguration and optimization of the spatial layout of the YRD city cluster,and the application of advanced technologies.

Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.

Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model

The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020,and investigated the main driving factors(precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,land use/land cover change,and inflow from the Ili River)of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression,piecewise linear regression,and Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses.The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020,the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution pattern was"high in the east and low in the west";overall,the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly.The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced,although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River.At the same time,the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas,the improvement of vegetation growth,and the increase of regional evapotranspiration,thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation.The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns;the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta.The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash,promoted vegetation restoration,and had a positive effect on the water conservation;however,this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration.These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD.

Measurement of Digital Economy Development Level in Yangtze River Delta and Its Influence on Ecological Efficiency

Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2007 to 2018,this paper empirically tests the impact of digital economy development on urban ecological efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta.The results show that the development level of digital economy in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is fluctuating and rising;the development of digital economy has a significant positive role in promoting the improvement of urban ecological efficiency;there is significant regional heterogeneity in the promotion of ecological efficiency by digital economy,especially in central cities.

Effects of ground-level ozone (O_3) pollution on the yields of rice and winter wheat in the Yangtze River Delta

Effects of elevated O_3 on the yields of rice and winter wheat were studied by using open-top chambers(OTCs). Results showed that compared to the control treatment, 200 ppb, 100 ppb, 50 ppb treatments caused a 80.4%, 58.6% and 10.5% decrease in grain yields per winter wheat plant and a 49.1%, 26.1% and 8.2% decrease in grain yield per rice plant, respectively. According to the dose-response relation educed from OTCs experiment and the monitor data of O_3 concentrations in spots, it was estimated that the yield losses of rice and winter wheat resulted by O_3 pollution in the Yangtze River Delta region in 1999 were 0.599 million ton and 0.669 million ton, economic losses were 0.539 billion RMB Yuan and 0.936 billion RMB Yuan, respectively.

Impacts of Weather Conditions Modified by Urban Expansion on Surface Ozone: Comparison between the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta Regions

In this paper, the online weather research and forecasting and chemistry （WRF-Chem） model is used to explore the impacts of urban expansion on regional weather conditions and its implication on surface ozone concentrations over the Pearl River Delta（PRD） and Yangtze River Delta（YRD） regions. Two scenarios of urban maps are used in the WRF-Chem to represent the early 1990s （pre-urbanization） and the current urban distribution in the PRD and the YRD. Month-long simulation results using the above land-use scenarios for March 2001 show that urbanization increases both the day- and night-time 2-m temperatures by about 0.6℃and 1.4℃, respectively. Daytime reduction in the wind speed by about 3.0 m s-1 is larger than that for the nighttime （0.5 to 2 m s-1）. The daytime increase in the PBL height （〉 200 m） is also larger than the nighttime （50-100 m）. The meteorological conditions modified by urbanization lead to detectable ozone-concentration changes in the PRD and the YRD. Urbanization increases the nighttime surface-ozone concentrations by about 4.7%-8.5% and by about 2.9%-4.2% for the daytime. In addition to modifying individual meteorological variables, urbanization also enhances the convergence zones, especially in the PRD. More importantly, urbanization has different effects on the surface ozone for the PRD and the YRD, presumably due to their urbanization characteristics and geographical locations. Even though the PRD has a smaller increase in the surface temperature than the YRD, it has （a） weaker surface wind speed, （b） smaller increase in PBL heights, and （c） stronger convergence zones. The latter three factors outweighed the temperature increase and resulted in a larger ozone enhancement in the PRD than the YRD.

Impact of urban expansion on regional temperature change in the Yangtze River Delta

Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional climatic trend cf temperature in the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows： 1） There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing-Zhenjiang-Yangzhou, Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28-0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2） The urban heat island （UHI） effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer〉autumn〉spring〉winter. 3） The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4） The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.

Spatial-temporal Analysis of Daily Air Quality Index in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China During 2014 and 2016

Urban air pollution is a prominent problem related to the urban development in China, especially in the densely populated urban agglomerations. Therefore, scientific examination of regional variation of air quality and its dominant factors is of great importance to regional environmental management. In contrast to traditional air pollution researches which only concentrate on a single year or a single pollutant, this paper analyses spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of air quality in disparate regions based on the air quality index(AQI) of the Yangtze River Delta region(YRD) of China from 2014 to 2016. Results show that the annual average value of the AQI in the YRD region decreases from 2014 to 2016 and exhibit a basic characteristic of ‘higher in winter, lower in summer and slightly high in spring and autumn'. The attainment rate of the AQI shows an apparently spatial stratified heterogeneity, Hefei metropolitan area and Nanjing metropolitan area keeping the worst air quality. The frequency of air pollution occurring in large regions was gradually decreasing during the study period. Drawing from entropy method analysis, industrialization and urbanization represented by per capita GDP and total energy consumption were the most important factors. Furthermore, population agglomeration is a factor that cannot be ignored especially in some mega-cities. Limited to data collection, more research is needed to gain insight into the spatiotemporal pattern and influence mechanism in the future.

Regional accessibility of land traffic network in the Yangtze River Delta

In a given district, the accessibility of any point should be the synthetically evaluation of the internal and external accessibilities. Using MapX component and Delphi, the author presents an information system to calculate and analyze regional accessibility according to the shortest travel time, generating thus a mark diffusing figure. Based on land traffic network, this paper assesses the present and the future regional accessibilities of sixteen major cities in the Yangtze River Delta. The result shows that the regional accessibility of the Yangtze River Delta presents a fan with Shanghai as its core. The top two most accessible cities are Shanghai and Jiaxing, and the bottom two ones are Taizhou （Zhejiang province） and Nantong With the construction of Sutong Bridge, Hangzhouwan Bridge and Zhoushan Bridge, the regional internal accessibility of all cities will be improved. Especially for Shaoxing, Ningbo and Taizhou （Jiangsu province）, the regional internal accessibility will be decreased by one hour, and other cities will be shortened by about 25 minutes averagely. As the construction of Yangkou Harbor in Nantong, the regional external accessibility of the harbor cities in Jiangsu province will be speeded up by about one hour.

Characteristics and Process of Land Use Changes in the Yangtze River Delta, China

As one of the developing countries China has an arable land per capita far below the world’s average level. With a high-density population and the quick development of economy and urbanization, the Yangtze River Delta shows the typical characteristics of land use in developed regions of China, which are: high land reclamation rate and low arable land per capita; intensive land use and high output value; and rapid increasing of construction land area and fast diminishing of arable lands. The analysis indicates that the process of the arable land changes in the Yangtze River Delta could be divided into four different change stages over the past 50 years.

Impact of Taihu Lake on City Ozone in the Yangtze River Delta

The lake-breeze at Taihu Lake generates a different specific heat capacity between the water body and the surrounding land. Taihu Lake has a significant impact on the atmospheric conditions and the air quality in the Yangtze River Delta. This phenomenon is referred to as the Taihu Lake effect. In this study, two simulations were conducted to determine the impact of the Taihu Lake effect in the reference experiment （R-E） and sensitivity experiments （NO_TH）. The control simulations demonstrated that the meteorological field and the spatial distribution of ozone （03） concentrations over Taihu lake obviously changed once the land-use type of water body was substituted by cropland. The surface temperature of Taihu Lake was reduced under the impact of Taihu Lake, and a huge temperature difference caused a strong lake-breeze effect. The results also showed that the difference in the average concentrations of 03 between the R-E and NO_TH experiments reached 12 ppbv in most areas of Taihu Lake, all day, on 20 May 2014. During daytime （0800-1600 LST, LST=UTC＋8）, the influence of the Taihu Lake effect on 03 in the Suzhou region was not significant. However, the influence of the Taihu Lake effect on 03 in the Suzhou region was obvious during nighttime （1800-2400 LST）. The larger changes in the physical and chemical processes were horizontal and vertical advections under the influence of the Taihu Lake effect in Taihu Lake.

Pollen and Phytolith Analyses of Ancient Paddy Fields at Chuodun Site, the Yangtze River Delta

A number of paddy fields pertaining to the Majiabang Cultures (5500-3800 years BC) were discovered during the archaeological excavations that were carried out since 1998 at the Chuodun site in the Yangtze River Delta. The pollen and phytolith analyses of two soil profiles from the northeastern part of this site were carried out to trace the agricultural practices of the Neolithic period. The phytolith results showed that rice domestication in the Yangtze River Delta could be traced back to as early as the Majiabang Culture. The pollen assemblage also revealed low levels of aquatic species, similar to that in modern paddy fields. This finding suggested that humans might have removed weeds for rice cultivation during the Neolithic period. Thus, pollen analysis in association with phytolith analysis was a promising method for identifying ancient paddy fields.

Assessing the Impacts of High Speed Rail Development in China’s Yangtze River Delta Megaregion

This paper assesses the impacts of high speed rail (HSR) development in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Megaregion, China. After giving an introduction and conducting a literature review, the paper proposes a pole-axis-network system (PANS) model guiding the entire study. On the one hand, the HSR projects in the YRD Megaregion are expected to generate significant efficiency-related transportation and non-transportation benefits. As a result, the spillover effects from Shanghai and other major cities (poles) will greatly promote the urban and regional developments along the major HSR corridors (axes), and the entire megaregion will become more integrated economically, socially, and culturally. But, on the other hand, the HSR projects will also create serious social and geographic inequity issues, which need to be addressed as soon as possible in a proper way. This empirical study confirms the PANS model proposed.

Tracing the provenance of aeolian loess in the Yangtze River Delta through zircon U–Pb age and geochemical investigations

Given the conflicts over the proposed formation mechanisms of Xiashu loess, the question of the provenance of sediments comprising the Xiashu loess in the Yangtze River Delta has not been satisfactorily resolved. In this study, the provenance of aeolian sediments of the Yangtze River Delta, China was examined by applying the detrial zircon U–Pb dating technique, Sr–Nd isotopic and trace element compositional analysis. U-Pb dating analysis was conducted on the Xiashu loess at three locations over the Yangtze River Delta, including Huangnishan(HNS) hill, Shengshan(SS) island and the Xuancheng(XC) area. The Xiashu loess and the sediments of the Yangtze River Valley share considerable similarity in their zircon U-Pb age spectra with the same main age peak and comparable age distribution. By contrast, significant differences in the age spectra, existbetween the Xiashu loess and loess deposits of Chinese Loess Plateau(CLP). Coarse grains of the Yangtze River Delta loess may have a proximal material source identical to the sediments from the Yangtze River valley. Sr–Nd isotopic values of the Xiashu loess match those from the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Rare earth element ratios independent of grain size illustrate that the values from loess of the Yangtze River Delta mostly overlap with those of CLP loess. This feature implies that loess from the Yangtze River Delta has a dominant source of distant material similar as the CLP loess. As such, we conclude that multi-proxy analysis of sediments can shed new light on tracing the provenance of aeolian loess in the Yangtze River Delta.

Contamination of PAHs in Sludge Samples from the Yangtze River Delta Area

To ascertain the contaminated conditions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） in sludge and to evaluate the risk of application of this sludge for agricultural purposes, 44 sludge samples obtained from 15 cities in the Yangtze River Delta area of China were investigated using capillary gas chromatography/mass spectrometry （GC/MS） after ultrasonic extraction and silica gel cleanup. PAHs＇ contents ranged from 0.0167 to 15.4860 mg kg^-1 （dry weight, DW） and averaged 1.376 mg kg^-1, with most samples containing 〈 1.5 mg kg^-1. Pyrene （PY）, fluoranthene （FL）, benzo[b]fluoranthene （BbF）, indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene （IND）, benzo[a]pyrene （B[a]P）, and benzo[g,h,i]perylene （BghiP） were the most dominant compounds, ranging from 0.1582 to 0.2518 mg kg^-1. Single PAH, such as naphthalene （NAP, 2-benzene rings）, phenanthrene （PA, 3-benzene rings）, PY （4-benzene rings）, and FL （3-benzene rings）, had high detection rates （76.1%-93.5%）. The distribution patterns of PAHs were found to vary with the sludge samples; however, the patterns showed that a few compounds with 2- and 3-benzene rings were commonly found in the samples, whereas those with 4-, 5-, and 6-benzene rings were usually less commonly found. All the 44 sludge samples were within the B[a]P concentration limit for sludge applied to agricultural land in China （〈 3.0 rag kg^-1）. The probable sources of PAH contamination in the sludge samples were petroleum, petroleum products, and combustion of liquid and solid fuel. The concentrations and distributions of the 16 PAHs in sludge were related to sludge type, source, and treatment technology, together with the physicochemical properties.

Monthly Variations of Atmospheric Circulations Associated with Haze Pollution in the Yangtze River Delta and North China

Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.

Spatial Pattern and Benefit Allocation in Regional Collaborative Innovation of the Yangtze River Delta, China

As an important step enhancing regional innovation, researches on collaborative innovation have attracted much more attention recently. One significant reason is that cities can get excessive benefits while they take collaborative innovation activities. Based on the theories of innovation geography, this paper takes the collaborative innovation of the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) Urban Agglomeration as a case study and measures the collaborative innovation capacity from innovation actors and innovation cities by adopting the catastrophe progression model. Then on this basis, the study depicts the spatial pattern and the benefit allocation of collaborative innovation by using the coupling collaborative degree model and benefit allocation model of collaborative innovation. The results show that:1) The collaborative innovation capacity of cities in the Yangtze River Delta has strengthened largely, while the capacity still is not high enough. Cities with high collaborative innovation capacity are concentrated in Shanghai, the southern part of Jiangsu, and Hangzhou Bay, yet the cooperation of the universities-industries-research institutes need to improve. 2) The spatial pattern of collaborative innovation of the Yangtze River Delta presents several innovation circles, which are in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Circle, Nanjing Metropolitan Circle, Hangzhou Metropolitan Circle, Ningbo Metropolitan Circle, and Hefei Metropolitan Circle. Shanghai plays the role of the central city of collaborative innovation, while Suzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Hefei act as sub-central cities. 3) The benefit each city allocated from collaborative innovation activities has increased. However, the allocations of the benefit show that cities with higher innovation capacity have significant advantages in most cases, which lead to serious disparities in space.