Research on Dynamic Relationship Between Interest Rate&Exchange Rate—Based on the Analysis of Marketization of Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

This paper empirically analyzed the dynamic relationship between interest rate and exchange rate with VAR model and VECM using monthly data from 2008 to 2019.One of the main contributions of this paper is that it concentrated on studying how the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate plays a role in the transmission mechanism between these two rates by dividing the sample into 6 different groups according to the process of the marketization.The results show that there are long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between interest rate and exchange rate.Also,interest rate could quickly respond to the changes in exchange rate after the marketization,which reflect that the marketization of interest rate is effective in China.However,exchange rate could not effectively respond to changes in interest rate.Thus,the marketization of exchange rate still needs to be improved.In addition,the results show that after marketization,an increase in the interest rate would lead to a decrease in exchange rate now,which could be a reference to the formulation of monetary policies.

Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY

This research paper investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate USD/CYN using yearly time series data for China economy from 1980 to 2017.ARDL bounds test approach for cointegration is applied to test the long-run relation between the dependent and the independent variables.The results of long-run ARDL indicate that gross domestic product growth and trade openness have a positive effect on the exchange rate USD/CNY while interest and inflation rates have a negative effect on the exchange rate.Based on the results of this study,it is recommended that the policymakers of the Chinese government should implement vital monetary and fiscal policies to determine the less volatile and productive exchange rate for China to manage sustainable economic growth for a long time with its trading partners.

Genetic dissection of the grain-filling rate and related traits through linkage analysis and genome-wide association study in bread wheat

Wheat grain yield is generally sink-limited during grain filling.The grain-filling rate(GFR)plays a vital role but is poorly studied due to the difficulty of phenotype surveys.This study explored the grain-filling traits in a recombinant inbred population and wheat collection using two highly saturated genetic maps for linkage analysis and genome-wide association study(GWAS).Seventeen stable additive quantitative trait loci(QTLs)were identified on chromosomes 1B,4B,and 5A.The linkage interval between IWB19555 and IWB56078 showed pleiotropic effects on GFR_(1),GFR_(max),kernel length(KL),kernel width(KW),kernel thickness(KT),and thousand kernel weight(TKW),with the phenotypic variation explained(PVE)ranging from 13.38%(KW)to 33.69%(TKW).198 significant marker-trait associations(MTAs)were distributed across most chromosomes except for 3D and 4D.The major associated sites for GFR included IWB44469(11.27%),IWB8156(12.56%)and IWB24812(14.46%).Linkage analysis suggested that IWB35850,identified through GWAS,was located in approximately the same region as QGFR_(max)2B.3-11,where two high-confidence candidate genes were present.Two important grain weight(GW)-related QTLs colocalized with grain-filling QTLs.The findings contribute to understanding the genetic architecture of the GFR and provide a basic approach to predict candidate genes for grain yield trait QTLs.

Kinetic study on the reaction between CO_2-CO and wustite using the isotope exchange method

To investigate the reaction between CO2-CO and wustite using the isotope exchange method at 1073, 1173, 1273, and 1373 K, the experiment apparatus was designed to simulate the fluidized bed. The chemical rate constant was estimated by considering the effect of gas phase mass transfer on the reaction. It is found that the chemical rate constant is inversely decreased with the increase in the ratio of CO2/CO by volume. The activation energy of reaction is in a linear relationship with the ratio of COs/CO by volume, and the average activation energy is 155.37 kJ/mol.

Subprime Mortgage Crisis and the Exchange Rate Channel: Evidence from Six Countries of the Zone Euro-Med

This article proposes to assess the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the exchange rate channel in 6 countries of the Euro-Med zone. To do this, our analysis is based on three evaluation methods that allow us to conclude that the exchange rate channel is better evaluated by the non-linear approach of the countries studied. Thus, the depreciation of the exchange rate adopted by the countries of the Med zone did worse macroeconomic stability and economic convergence.

Demographic Structure and the Real Exchange Rate:A Study Based on Cross-Country Data

By creating a two-sector intertemporal and intergenerational small open economy model,this paper investigates how real exchange rate responds to demographic shifts in the long term.The result shows that when the capital density of tradable goods sector exceeds that of non-tradable goods sector in a country,an increase in the country's elderly dependency rate(ODR) will cause its real exchange rate to appreciate.In addition,higher savings rate or per capita labor income means that real exchange rate is more responsive to ODR variations.We conducted an econometric test on our theoretical hypotheses using the data of 214 countries and regions during 1980-2013.Empirical result indicates that an increase of ODR will cause real exchange rate to appreciate.This result is robust and unaffected by sample grouping characteristics and differences.An increase in savings rate will significantly increase the ODR elasticity of real exchange rate.This conclusion is also significant and robust for overall samples and categorized samples(except for developed countries) and generally consistent with our theoretical hypothesis.However,our empirical research generally does not support the hypothesis that higher labor income increases the responsiveness of real exchange rate to ODR.This study is of great significance to unravel the effect of China's ageing population on the longterm variations of renminbi's exchange rate.

To Accomplish the Unaccomplished Reform： Lessons and Options of RMB Exchange Rate Reform

The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.

Theory of Capital,Investment and Exchange Rate:A New Developmentalist Equation

The article deals with the relationship between the decision to invest and the exchange rate. The literature relates investment at interest rate. An increase in the interest rate would reduce the investment expenditure. Jorgenson’s equation uses the flexible accelerator model, taxation, and the cost of capital to explain and predict the amount of investment in machinery and equipment. The relationship between the exchange rate and the investment appears in the literature as a direct relation. An appreciated exchange rate allows the importation of cheaper machinery and equipment and increases productive investments. This paper proposes a modified equation in which the appreciated exchange rate inhibits productive investments by reducing the expectation of profit, either because the domestic market becomes more competitive or because exports decrease. It still incorporates in the model of Jorgenson the idea that the unit cost of labor is the relevant variable to explain the choice of investing, assuming a function of production of fixed coefficients.

Evaluating the exchange rate and commodity price nexus in Malaysia: evidence from the threshold cointegration approach

This paper examines the long-and short-run dynamics of asymmetric adjustment between the nominal exchange rate and commodity prices,namely oil,palm oil,rubber,and natural gas prices,in Malaysia using monthly data from January 1994 to December 2017.The relationship between exchange rate and each commodity price is examined in terms of Engle-Granger and threshold cointegrations.The estimated results provide evidence of long-run threshold cointegration and show that the adjustments towards the long-run equilibrium position are asymmetric in the short run.Furthermore,this study finds evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship running from the nominal exchange rate to oil price in the long and short run using a spectral frequency domain causality application.There is also empirical evidence of bidirectional causality between the nominal exchange rate and palm oil price,rubber price,and natural gas price in the long and short run.Overall,the findings have significant implications for the current debate on the future of primary commodities in Malaysia.

Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

A Study of Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Import-Export Trade Relations before and after Exchange Reform

Exchange rate, as a link between international markets, integrates the economies of all countries. In today's economic globalization, exchange rate plays an important role. It is one of the most effective ways to regulate the international economy, and also one of the most direct means. In this paper, based on the definition, classification and role of exchange rate, the impacts of RMB exchange rate on China's export trade after the "exchange rate reform" were studied, and the measures that China should take to deal with the impact of the continuous appreciation of RMB on imports and exports under the current environment were proposed. This paper hopes to further expand China's foreign trade.

Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?

With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.

TRANSFORM THE MECHANISM OF RENMINBI’S EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM IN CONFORMITY WITH THE DEMAND OF MARKET ECONOMY——The academic report delivered at the Annual Meeting of NNCIFS on October 1993

Exchange rate functions under systems of centrallyplanned economy and market economy are quite different,and the mechanism to determine such exchange rate is alsodifferent. To adopt a socialist market economic system inChina, the exchange rate mechanism of Renminbi must bethoroughly transformed. To accomplish this goal, I believethere are three problems that must be solved: first,

Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination： Evidence From the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

Using a monetary model of exchange rate determination that suggests a strong link between the nominal exchange rate and a set of monetary fundamentals, exchange rate dynamics for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is studied. As the cointegration relationship among exchange rate, output, and the monetary fundamentals （money supply and interest rate） is found, vector autoregressions （VAR）/vector error-correction （VEC） and two-stage least squares （2SLS） error-correction models are used in this context, since both approaches allow estimating short-run correlations between exchange rates and fundamentals while taking into account the existent long-run exchange rate constraints. Based on the quarterly data for the period of 1998-2012, it is found that for all countries, an increase in the money supply, domestic output slowdown, or stronger growth abroad are factors behind a nominal exchange rate depreciation, just as predicted by the monetary model of exchange rate. However, the effects of domestic-foreign interest rate differential are quite heterogeneous, being in line with theoretical predictions of a standard monetary model for Poland only. According to the decomposition of variance, money supply and interest rates account for 30%-46% of the exchange rate variation in the Czech Republic, from 10% to 14% in Hungary, and from 23% to 42% in Poland.

Exchange rate,discount rate,interest rate and depreciation rate

exchange rate:汇率,外汇汇率,指一个国家的货币和另一个国家的货币的比价。中国人民银行每天公布人民币市场汇价。如:market Exchange Rates in RMB yuan set by the People’s Bank ofChina(September 4,1998)Currency Unit RateUS dollar 100 828.00Japanese yen 100 6.0291German mark 100 478.

The Concrete Analysis of the Change of Import and Export Trade of Chinese Enterprises Is Based on the Perspective of RMB Exchange Rate

The change of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises actually reflects the appreciation and depreciation of RMB,which are closely related to the total volume of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises and the formulation of corresponding foreign exchange measures.Generally speaking,the rise of the RMB exchange rate means the appreciation of the RMB is conducive to imports,while the decline of the RMB exchange rate means the depreciation of the RMB and the decline of the price of export commodities,so it has a greater price advantage and is conducive to exports.Chinese enterprises should correctly grasp the rise and fall of RMB exchange rate and carry out import and export trade reasonably when developing abroad.

The Appreciation Pressure on RMB Yuan and the Adjustment of RMB Exchange Rate Policy

China has maintained RMB exchange rate nearly unchanged since 1998. However, with the relaxation of capital control, a crawling peg, a more flexible RMB exchange rate regime, is inevitable. Based on improving the current formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, Chinese government could widen the floating band around the central parity; in the long run, switching the peg from USD alone to a basket of currencies may be a better choice.

Detecting the nested determinants of the Australian Dollar-U.S.Dollar exchange rate regime and simulating its behaviour

This paper aims to detect the underlying regime behind the historical data of the Australian Dollar-U.S.Dollar exchange rate and potential influential factors.Based on academic research and empirical analysis,a series of statistical analysis are carried out to capture the significant factors and their channels through which they could exert effects upon the dynamic behaviour of the exchange rate.

Employment and Wage Effects of RMB Exchange Rate for Manufacturing Sectors in China and the US

By creating a labor market dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper derives the pass-through mechanism of exchange rate's employment and wage effects,carries out an empirical study on the employment and wage effects of RMB exchange rate for manufacturing sectors in China and the United States based on ridge regression, and examines the role of industry characteristics in this process. Research findings suggest that: RMB depreciation will drive employment and wage growth for most of China's laborintensive manufacturing sectors, and RMB appreciation will increase employment for certain capital-and technology-intensive sectors; but RMB depreciation has insignificant employment and wage effects for most sectors in the US. Hence, in achieving the longterm stability of RMB exchange rate, China should take advantage of RMB appreciation's manufacturing upgrade effect and ensure the steady growth of manufacturing employment.The US should make breakthroughs in various links of its economic development in order to tackle unemployment, instead of blaming RMB exchange rate. In addition, the nature of business activities and trade union characteristic are both significant factors that lead to differences in inter-sector employment levels of Chinese and US manufacturing sectors.Technology characteristic and other monopolistic characteristics exert decisive effects on the difference of wage return for various sectors in China and the US.

Effects of soil drought stress on photosynthetic gas exchange traits and chlorophyll fluorescence in Forsythia suspensa

To clarify the changes in plant photosynthesis and mechanisms underlying those responses to gradually increasing soil drought stress and reveal quantitative relationships between photosynthesis and soil moisture,soil water conditions were controlled in greenhouse pot experiments using 2-year-old seedlings of Forsythia suspensa（Thunb.） Vahl. Photosynthetic gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence variables were measured and analyzed under 13 gradients of soil water content. Net photosynthetic rate（PN）, stomatal conductance（gs）, and water-use efficiency（WUE） in the seedlings exhibited a clear threshold response to the relative soil water content（RSWC）. The highest PNand WUEoccurred at RSWCof51.84 and 64.10%, respectively. Both PNand WUEwere higher than the average levels at 39.79% B RSWCB 73.04%. When RSWCdecreased from 51.84 to 37.52%,PN, gs, and the intercellular CO2 concentration（Ci）markedly decreased with increasing drought stress; the corresponding stomatal limitation（Ls） substantially increased, and nonphotochemical quenching（NPQ） also tended to increase, indicating that within this range of soil water content, excessive excitation energy was dispersed from photosystem II（PSII） in the form of heat, and the reduction in PNwas primarily due to stomatal limitation.While RSWCdecreased below 37.52%, there were significant decreases in the maximal quantum yield of PSII photochemistry（Fv/Fm） and the effective quantum yield of PSII photochemistry（UPSII）, photochemical quenching（qP）, and NPQ; in contrast, minimal fluorescence yield of the dark-adapted state（F0） increased markedly. Thus,the major limiting factor for the PNreduction changed to a nonstomatal limitation due to PSII damage. Therefore, an RSWCof 37.52% is the maximum allowable water deficit for the normal growth of seedlings of F. suspensa, and a water content lower than this level should be avoided in field soil water management. Water contents should be maintained in the range of 39.79% B RSWCB 73.04% to ensure normal function of the photosynthetic apparatus and high levels of photosynthesis and efficiency in F.suspensa.