Present Situation, Problems and Strategies of Agricultural Credit Policy in Dingxi City

This paper analyzes the current situation of agricultural credit policy in Dingxi City,and further studies the problems in the implementation of credit policy in Dingxi City,and puts forward strategies and suggestions according to these problems.

Analysis of the Problems and Countermeasures of China’s Green Credit

At present, China’s green credit market is the most important channel for green financing and has a great influence on the development of China’s green finance. Based on the collection and arrangement of the related data and information, the paper points out the main problems which is existing in China’s green credit by figures and examples from aspects of detail standards of policies, the matching level between deposits and loans and the management ability of avoiding environmental risk. Furthermore, the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures of the problems.

A Further Study on the Currency Law of Developmentand Some Innovations in Contemporary Economic Theory

以当代中国传统经济思想精髓为基础,着重桄理货币发展脉络,并探究和明晰当今纸币信用化、货币电子化现象背后蕴含的若干规律性认识,继而对货币形式与货币特质等若干重要的经济学基础问题以及推进其思维创新着力展开深度研究.通过对若干经济问题的中外比较分析,在有关货币的理论观点及其研究视角与经济分析方法上均有原创性学术进展：一是尝试对中国当代货币信用若干基本认识予以多视角探讨并进一步理论拓展;二是创新性运用经济数学模型方法对货币信用发展及其内在规律性予以开拓性探索和深层次经济剖析.

Optimal Trade Credit Policy for Supplier under Asymmetric Information in the Supply Chain

Most papers about trade credit in supply chain studied retailer's inventory policy based on information shared.Few papers paid attention to supplier's trade credit policy under asymmetric information.So this paper tries to propose supplier's optimal trade credit policy to reveal retailer's private information.The aim is achieved by developing an incentive model with revelation principle.The retailer's private information can be found out through this trade credit policy.This contract is more general than the wholesale price contract.For the retailer's private information,the order quantity and ratio of delay in payment are distorted.Sensitivity analysis shows that the contract is influenced by sales ability and discount rate.Finally,the indirect mechanism with the same effect is proposed to make it easy to be put into practice.

Structural Monetary Policy, Bank Credit and Bank Liquidity—An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis,the People’s Bank of China,based on traditional monetary policy tools,launched a series of structural monetary policy tools such as standing lending facility(SLF),medium-term lending facility(MLF),and pledged supplementary lending(PSL)and targeted at liquidity via the commercial banking system.In order to test the credit transmission effect of structured monetary policy,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between structured monetary policy,bank liquidity and bank credit based on the VAR model.The research shows that the implementation of structured monetary policy reduces the liquidity of commercial banks in the short term and increases in loans to small or micro enterprises and agriculture-related loans,these policies have produced significant short-term effects on credit transmission in steady of long-term effects.Thus,a series of supporting measures are needed to fully exert the effects of structural monetary policy.

The Essence of Optimism of The Economists and Investors with Regard to the Economy of Russia

The gross domestic product of Russia,expressed in US dollars,indicates problems in the Russian economy associated with the decline in oil prices on the world energy market and the consequences of the sanctions of the United States and the European Union against Russia.The crisis situation of the Russian economy has a negative impact on the income of the population of country,represented mainly by wages.However,an economist or investor may be optimistic about Russian economic development in the medium term.This optimism is related to the economic policy of the United States.The expansion of the United States economy within the global space,based on economic growth,requires maintaining inflation within the target level and weakening the US dollar.These tasks are solved with the help of soft monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System.The reduction of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve System against the background of inflation of the target level and the devaluation of the US dollar will contribute to economic growth in the United States,because it will lead to the depreciation of public debt,lower consumption of imports,increase in exports and trade balance,growth of production,income,consumption.The economic policy of the United States,which contributes to the devaluation of the US dollar,will also reduce the US dollar against the ruble.The optimistic view of investors-economists on the Russian economy is due to a significant strengthening of the ruble against the US dollar.Consequently,in the medium term,the gross domestic product and wages of citizens of Russia,expressed in US dollars,will significantly increase,and the purchasing power of the national currency of the country will also increase.This growth may continue until the next election of a new President of the United States in november 2020.After the election of the new President of the United States,there is a high probability of sanctions against Russia and of decline in oil prices in the world energy market in accordance with the future economic policy of the United States–two main reasons for the sharp strengthening of the US dollar against the ruble,which will cause a deeper economic crisis in Russia in the medium and long term.

Ruin probabilities with random rates of interest

A model was proposed for addressing investment risk of the flee reserve in the form of credit or currency risk. This risk was expressed by a constant amount K （ e. g., securitization） upon an interest-increasing event and a random variable Z representing the recovery rate of a bond or a devaluation factor. The model equation is an integro-differential equation with deviating arguments. The analytical solutions were obtained for the probability of survival as Z is a discrete random variable and as Z is a continuous random variable respectively.

Macroeconomic effects of Mobile money:evidence from Uganda

This study examined the effects of mobile money-a recent innovation in Uganda’s financial-sector landscape-on aggregate economic activity and other macroeconomic variables.We first estimated the long-run mobile-money demand function using vector error correction(VEC)techniques,distinguishing between balances and transfers/transactions.We then estimated the short-run effects of mobile money on selected macroeconomic variables using structural vector autoregressive(SVAR)methods.The results showed that mobile money had moderate positive effects on monetary aggregates,consumer price index,private-sector credit,and aggregate economic activity.Mobile money balances responded to changes in monetary policy instruments,signaling possible ameliorating effects for the conduct of monetary policy.Finally,the results showed that transactional motives related to mobile money had stronger macroeconomic effects than savings motives.

交易或合作?双积分政策下汽车制造商积分策略研究

双积分政策实施后,汽车制造企业须调整生产运营策略以应对政策变化为企业带来的影响。以由一个同时生产传统燃油汽车和新能源汽车的汽车制造商和经销商组成的汽车供应链为研究对象,构建汽车制造商的交易策略和合作策略模型,比较不同策略下汽车供应链的分散决策和集中决策;对比分析不同投资金额时汽车制造商的最优积分策略。研究表明汽车制造商可通过直接交易或与其他汽车制造商合作的方式获取新能源正积分;不论汽车制造商选择交易策略或合作策略,汽车供应链集中决策比分散决策更优;当投入的金额较小时,合作策略更有优势;通过收益共享契约协调后,供应链成员收益达到帕累托最优。

货币政策支持对公司债信用利差的影响

使用我国沪深上市公司2019—2022年债券发行月度数据,利用双重差分法探讨货币政策支持对公司债信用利差的影响。结果表明:政策实施显著收窄了债券信用利差,且实施效果在不同资产规模、发债规模、劳动密集度、资本密集度下具有一定异质性;将信用利差分解为流动性利差与违约利差后,发现其主要通过降低违约利差来收窄信用利差。进一步对观测期内具体货币政策工具操作进行短期事件研究发现,下调中期借贷便利利率与常备借贷便利利率对信用利差的收窄作用呈现国有企业与高信用评级“偏好”,而下调金融机构存款准备金率引起的收窄作用并未有明显差异。为更好地发挥货币政策对直接融资市场调控的功能,应着力完善货币政策对债券市场信用利差结构的影响框架,加快构筑市场风险协同监测机制。

绿色信贷政策能助力城市碳减排吗?——基于《绿色信贷指引》实施的准自然实验

以《绿色信贷指引》的实施为准自然实验,选取中国147个地级市的732家A股上市公司数据,采用双重差分法检验政策的实施对于城市碳排放的影响,并且进行了企业绿色专利和城市产业结构双重中介机制的检验。研究结果表明,绿色信贷政策促进了企业绿色创新并且优化了城市产业结构,实现了碳减排的目标。进一步分析发现,东部地区的政策实施效果比中西部地区更为理想,碳排放交易试点区的政策实施效果弱于非试点区。文章给出了政策的制定与实施应该综合考虑地区异质性和同期政策的影响等政策建议。

“双积分”政策对新能源汽车上游企业技术创新的影响分析

采用2014—2022年A股上市的20家新能源汽车上游企业面板数据,采用倾向得分匹配法从非汽车生产行业上市公司得到对照组样本,构建双重差分模型,检验了“双积分”政策对于新能源汽车上游企业研发创新的影响。结果表明:(1)“双积分”政策对新能源汽车上游企业的技术创新具有促进作用,在“实质性”创新和“策略性”创新之间,该政策对于前者的影响更大;(2)“双积分”政策的创新激励作用受到企业所在地区市场化程度的影响,对东部地区的影响要比对中部和西部地区的影响大;(3)“双积分”政策对新能源汽车上游企业中的非国有企业的创新激励作用比国有企业更为突出。

绿色信贷政策是否有效降低了重污染企业信贷风险

绿色信贷政策承担着引导金融资源流入绿色发展领域、推进企业转型升级的双重任务,信贷风险管理是其实现任务的重要环节。文章根据2012年1月原银监会出台的《绿色信贷指引》,运用KMV模型测度重污染企业信贷风险即违约距离(DD),并构建双重差分模型(DID)实证分析绿色信贷政策是否有效降低重污染企业信贷风险以及验证其影响机制。实证结果显示,重污染行业间违约距离差异不显著,行业内违约距离总体上呈增加趋势,即信贷风险降低;《绿色信贷指引》的实施通过调整债务期限结构、提升环境信息披露质量显著降低重污染企业信贷风险,且国有企业、金融发展程度较高的地区企业对其更敏感。推动绿色信贷政策规范化、制度化及长效化实施,对增强银行信贷风险管控能力、推动企业高质量发展具有一定参考意义。

绿色信贷政策与污染型僵尸企业治理:淘汰与转型的双重效应

以2007年绿色信贷政策出台为事件构造了准自然实验,基于中国工业企业数据库,采用双重差分法考察了绿色信贷政策对污染型僵尸企业的淘汰效应与转型效应及其影响机制。实证结果发现,政策显著增加了污染型僵尸企业的退出概率,且对于存续的污染型僵尸企业生产率提升具有显著的促进作用。绿色信贷政策淘汰效应的作用机制,来自融资可得性降低和融资成本增加导致的银行信贷资源配置合理化的影响;绿色信贷政策转型效应的作用机制,来自政策强化外部监督引致的代理成本下降。异质性分析发现,绿色信贷政策的淘汰效应和转型效应在环境规制强度较高、市场化水平较高的地区以及劳动力密集较低行业更显著,且淘汰效应在非国有企业更显著,转型效应在国有企业更显著。将绿色信贷政策与解决僵尸企业难题的有效结合,加快转变经济发展方式,对如何缓解信贷资源错配,加快推进僵尸企业治理提出相应的政策建议。

绿色信贷政策促进企业绿色技术创新了吗?

我国现代化建设进入了生态文明发展新阶段,企业绿色技术创新是“减污降碳协同增效”的关键动力,绿色信贷政策是否以及在多大程度上促进了企业绿色技术创新需要进行量化衡量,旨为绿色信贷政策更有效地促进企业绿色技术创新。在分析绿色信贷政策对企业绿色技术创新作用机理、归纳近些年绿色信贷政策与企业绿色技术创新的典型事实后,基于2007~2019年间A股上市工业企业样本数据,以受政策支持的绿色企业为实验组,未受支持的非绿色企业为控制组,利用PSM-DID模型开展准自然实验,得出绿色信贷政策对企业绿色技术创新具有显著的正向促进作用;并通过中介效应模型检验了促进作用是通过信贷规模与融资成本两种渠道缓解了企业融资约束;且通过异质性分析分别细化了政策因企业区位、企业所有权、企业规模的促进作用程度差异;最后,基于研究结论提出相应的对策建议。

The Effectiveness of Structural Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Policies——Based on the DSGE Model That Includes Bank Heterogeneous Credit

Structural monetary policy and macro-prudential policies are important parts of the policy system of the People’s Bank of China.By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes the heterogeneity of corporate and bank credit,the authors divide the policies of the People’s Bank of China into seven categories,and explores the policy effectiveness of structural monetary policy,macro-prudential policy and traditional aggregate monetary policy.Through simulation of the model,it is found that whether facing technical shocks,interest rate shocks or credit shocks,the structural two-pillar policy tool that uses the deposit reserve interest rate as the target of operation is most conducive to economic stability.Technological progress has the most positive and lasting impact on output.Interest rates and credit policies will leave follow-up problems in the adjustment of the economy,and structural two-pillar policies can alleviate the impact of these problems.

绿色信贷政策的溢出效应--基于审计定价决策视角

绿色信贷在改善企业环境治理行为、推动经济社会绿色发展方面发挥了重要作用。从审计定价视角出发,探讨绿色信贷政策引致的溢出效应。以2012年《绿色信贷指引》的出台作为准自然实验,构建双重差分模型检验该政策的实施对绿色信贷限制企业审计定价的影响。研究发现:绿色信贷政策能显著降低受限企业的审计收费。机制检验表明,绿色信贷政策通过引导受限企业进行绿色转型、降低其环境风险以及环境治理中的代理成本,进而降低其审计费用。企业层面的异质性检验表明,绿色信贷政策降低审计费用的正面效应在国有企业、产能利用率较低以及信息质量较差的企业中更为明显;地区层面异质性检验表明,绿色信贷政策的积极效用在银行业竞争更激烈、市场化程度更高以及政府环境规制更强的地区更为明显。结论丰富了绿色信贷政策实施经济后果的相关研究,并从环境规制视角拓展了审计费用影响因素的文献,同时为进一步修订和完善绿色信贷政策提供了经验证据。

绿色信贷指引对重污染企业环境信息披露的影响

在可持续发展战略背景下,国家和民众对环保问题的关注程度日益提高。国家从多方面出台环保政策规制企业行为,绿色信贷便是从银行金融业出发,通过限制金融机构对企业的放贷行为,促使企业经营更低碳环保。基于我国A股上市公司数据,使用双重差分法探究2012年颁布的《绿色信贷指引》对重污染企业环境信息披露的影响,使用词典法和文本分析法对企业年报中“管理层讨论与分析”模块环境信息叙述性披露进行了分析。研究结果显示,绿色信贷政策的颁布确实对重污染企业的环境信息披露有积极影响。具体表现在企业年报的“管理层讨论与分析”模块中有关环保的叙述性披露更多,更具体且更具有可读性;这一结论经过内生性检验、安慰剂检验后依然成立。还探究了该影响的中介效应,发现绿色信贷政策既能直接影响重污染企业环境信息披露,也能通过提高企业融资约束以及环境代理成本使企业加强环境信息披露。此外,企业的所有权性质会对该过程起到调节作用,国有重污染企业会披露更多、更具体的环境信息;股权集中度高的公司倾向披露更少的环境信息,但披露的可读性更高。最后基于以上结论,提出相应的对策建议。

借贷便利创新工具、资产收益率与商业银行信用风险

本文基于2014—2021年中国203家银行的非平衡面板数据,考察借贷便利创新工具对商业银行信用风险的影响。实证分析发现:借贷便利创新操作会显著增加商业银行信用风险,该结论在考虑内生性问题以及进行一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性检验显示,这一政策效应在区域性商业银行、规模较小的商业银行中表现得更为明显。中介效应模型检验表明,借贷便利创新工具通过抑制商业银行资产收益率的渠道增加信用风险。调节效应模型检验结果说明,资本监管力度和银行家乐观度的提高均会减弱借贷便利创新工具对商业银行信用风险的加剧效应。该研究结论对于中央银行适时适量地进行借贷便利操作和商业银行信用风险管理防控具有借鉴意义。