Research of Source Parameters of the Yutian Ms7.3 Earthquake in Xinjiang on February 12, 2014

The M_S7. 3 earthquake occurred in Yutian,Xinjiang on February 12,2014. Based on seismic waveform data before the earthquake and aftershocks of the earthquake sequence,which were recorded by the Xinjiang Regional Digital Seismic Network, this paper corrected instrument response,propagation path and site response of the S-wave recording spectra. We then calculated with genetic algorithms,on the basis of the Brune model,the source parameters of the 102 M_L≥3. 0 Yutian earthquake sequence,seismic moment,apparent stress and corner frequency. The results show that,seismic moment of the earthquake sequence is between 3. 46 × 10~11- 2. 08 × 10~15N·m,apparent stress is between1. 48 × 10~5- 1. 16 × 10~6 Pa,mean stress level is 0. 31 MPa,and corner frequency is between1. 4- 7. 1Hz in the range of 3. 0- 5. 0. By analyzing the apparent stress and corner frequency variation with time,we obtain that apparent stress of earthquakes before the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake was significantly higher than the aftershock sequence,but the corner frequency was significantly lower than the aftershock sequence. Apparent stress was at a high level before the main shock, which shows that the main shock zone accumulated higher stress,and then the apparent stress was reduced. The main shock occurred in the process of slow increase. Because of the release of a large amount of stress,after the M_S7. 3 earthquake,the apparent stress was gradually reduced. That was the performance of low stress fracture of aftershocks.

Research on Co-seismic Displacement of the Yutian MS7.3 Earthquake Based on the High Frequency Data of GNSS

After the Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,the authors instantly collected 1Hz high frequency data of the 4 reference stations within 350 km around the epicenter,and calculated the GNSS data with the TRACK module. The results showed that:( 1) The co-seismic displacement of Yutian station,about 54 km from the epicenter,is the most obvious,particularly in the EW component,with a change of about 52.5 ± 11mm,which is more than three times the mean-square error of calculating precision.( 2) In the Yutian reference station,the biggest variation in the EW component appeared within 1 minute after the earthquake.( 3) The change in the NS component is not great.

A Study on the Characteristics of the Yutian,Xinjiang M_S7.3 Earthquake,February 12,2014

The February 12,2014,MS7.3,earthquake in Yutian,Xinjiang,China,occurred as a result of shallow strike-slip faulting in the tectonically complex region of the northern Tibetan Plateau,with a depth of 17 km.This earthquake occurred several hundred kilometers north of the convergent India-Eurasia plate boundary.The epicenter location of the Yutian earthquake,36.1° N,82.5° E,is 110 km north of Yutian County,Hotan Prefecture.A large number of aftershocks from ML2.0 to ML3.0 occurred until 12:00oclock,February 23,2014 and the largest aftershock,MS5.7,occurred at 17:24 p.m.,February 12,2014.The b and h value of Yutian sequence are 0.70 and 1.29,respectively.The waiting time method reveals that the strong aftershocks above ML4.5comply with a linear relationship,which is consistent with the characteristics of a mainshock-aftershock sequence.Furthermore,we calculate the source parameters and analyze the rupture process based on the empirical relationships for the Yutian earthquake,and the results indicate a frictional undershoot behavior in the dynamic source process of the Yutian earthquake,which is also in agreement with the lower and similar b values compared with the 2008 MS7.3 Yutian earthquake and the 2012 MS6.2 Yutian earthquake.

Tectonic Background of the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake in 2014 and Its Relationship with the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake in 2008

The regional tectonic background and characteristics of active faults of the Yutian MS7.3earthquake on February 12,2014 are discussed in this paper.After the analysis of the epicenter area of the MS7.3 earthquake in 2014 and the focal mechanisms of the former strong earthquakes around it,the authors deduced that the seismogenic fault of the MS7.3earthquake is the east branch of the Ashikule fault.The MS7.3 earthquake in 2014 and the MS7.3 earthquake in 2008 are two strong earthquake events on the different sections of the Altun Tagh fault,where the fault behavior changes from sinistral slip to normal faulting because of the extensional tail effects in the southern end of the Altun Tagh fault.It is concluded that the two MS7.3 earthquakes have the same dynamic source,and the MS7.3earthquake in 2008 promoted the occurrence of the MS7.3 earthquake in 2014.Finally,we calculate the Coulomb stress change to the seismogenic fault of the MS7.3 earthquake in2014 from the MS7.3 earthquake in 2008 using the layered crust model.The result also shows that the MS7.3 earthquake in 2008 accelerated the occurrence of the MS7.3earthquake in 2014.

Microseismic Concentration Zones before and after the February 12,2014 M_S 7.3 Yutian Earthquake and the Possible Indication of an Earthquake Risk Zone

Since 2001, there have occurred in succession the 2001 Kunlun Mountains M S8. 1earthquake,the 2008 Wenchuan M S8. 0 earthquake,the 2010 Yushu M S7. 1 earthquake and the 2012 Lushan M S7. 0 earthquake in the periphery of the Bayan Har block. By comparison of the characteristics of seismic strain release variations before and after the Kunlun Mountains M S8. 1 earthquake in the same time length in the geodynamical related regions,we found that the seismic strain release was obviously enhanced after the earthquake in the Longmenshan area,Batang area,and the NS-trending valleys at the west of the Hot Spring Basin. The Wenchuan earthquake occurred in the first area,and the Yushu earthquake is related to the second area. After the earthquake rupture occurred on the East Kunlun fault zone on the northern boundary of the Bayan Har Block,crustal materials on the south side of the fault zone migrated to the southeast,leading to a concentration of tectonic deformation in the Longmenshan thrust belt, e ventually rupturing on the Longmenshan thrust belt. This earthquake case illustrates that seismicity enhancement zones are possibly prone to long-term destructive earthquakes. After the M S7. 3 earthquake in Yutian,Xinjiang on February 12,2014,earthquake frequency and seismic strain release markedly increased in the junction area between the eastern Qilian Mountain tectonic belt and the Altun Tagh fault zone,where more attention should be paid to the long-term seismic risk.

Analysis of Seismic Activity Characteristics before the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake,Xinjiang on February 12,2014

This paper introduces the geological structure background around the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3earthquake area,investigates and analyzes the regime of small earthquake activity and the characteristics of regional seismicity pattern in Xinjiang before the earthquake, and compares the characteristics of the regional seismic activity with the 2008 Yutian M_S7.3earthquake. The results show: 1 2 ~ 3 years before the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,Xinjiang was in a seismic active state with strong earthquake occurring successively,and before the 2008 M_S7.3 earthquake,Xinjiang was in the quiet state of moderate-small earthquakes with M3. 0 ~ 4. 0. 2 Before this Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,the regional seismic activity showed a short-term anomaly feature,that is,seismicity of M ≥ 5. 0earthquakes significantly increased on the Altun seismic zone and in the source area three years before the M_S7.3 earthquake,while a five year long quiescence of seismicity of M≥4. 0 earthquakes appeared on the east of the source area in a range of about 440 km. Six months before this M7. 3 earthquake,there existed seismic gap of M3. 0 ~ 4. 0 earthquakes and near-conjugate seismic belt magnitude 3. 0 and 4. 0 in the source area. 3 The state of strong earthquake activity and the seismicity pattern of small earthquakes before this Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake were significantly different to that before the 2008 Yutian M_S7.3earthquake,and this may be related to the different seismogenic environments of the two M_S7.3 earthquakes.

Deformation Anomalies before the February 12,2014,M_S7.3 Yutian Earthquake

The Yutian earthquake with M_S7.3 happened on February 12,2014. The precursor monitoring ability is weak in that area. We found tendency anomalies and middle- and short-term anomalies from metal pendulum tilt measurements in Hotan seismic station before the earthquake. And we also compared the anomalies with that of the M_S7.3 Yutian earthquake on March 21,2008. The tendency anomalies measured by the metal pendulum tiltmeter appeared since 2012 as tilting eastward. While the middle- and short-term anomalies were characterized by acceleration,pause and rapid change of tilt rate in two directions. The tendency anomalies of metal pendulum tilt records are the same before the two earthquakes. They both happened in the east direction. However,there are differences in duration,characteristic and earthquake intervals for the middle- and short-term anomalies.

Characteristics of Seismic Sequences and Early Tendency Judgment for Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake in 2014

The basic parameters,seismogenic structure and seismic sequences characteristics of the Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake on February 12,2014 are introduced and compared to the Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake in 2008. The results show that the MS5. 4 earthquake is regarded as an immediate foreshock of the Yutian MS7. 3 main shock. The frequency of strong aftershock sequences was low and their number declined quickly,and the maximum aftershock was a MS5. 7 earthquake. According to analysis of the historical earthquake sequence type,and parameter of h-value,b-value and energy release ratio between main shock and sequence etc.,we found the preliminary conclusion that the Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake sequence in 2014 was a foreshock-main shock-aftershock type.

The Coulomb Stress Change Associated with the Taiwan Straits M_S 7.3 Earthquake on September 16,1994 and the Risk Prediction of Its Surrounding Faults

Using the focal mechanism solutions and slip distribution model data of the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake on September 16, 1994, we calculate the static Coulomb stress changes stemming from the earthquake. Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field, as well as the location of historical earthquakes, we analyze the Coulomb stress change triggered by the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake. The result shows that the static Coulomb stress change obtained by forward modeling based on the slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the areas far away from the epicenter. Ninety percent of aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas. The Coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter. It is found that Coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock distribution far away from the epicenter, while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near the epicenter. Through the calculation of the Coulomb stress change, we find that the stress increases in the southwest part of the Min-Yue (Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone, which enhances the seismic activity. Therefore, it is deemed that the sea area between Nanpeng Island and Dongshan Island, where the Min-Yue coastal fault zone intersects with the NW-trending Shanghang-Dongshan fault, has a high seismic risk.

2014年新疆于田7.3级地震发震构造和震前地震活动过程讨论

2014年2月12日在新疆于田发生7.3级地震,震中位于阿尔金断裂西段,这是继2008年3月21日于田7.3级地震后在塔里木盆地南侧发生的第2次7级地震。这次于田7.3级地震的余震主体沿NE向分布,余震区的西南段呈近SN向分布;绝大部分余震与前震在余震区西南密集分布,强余震(全部的5级以上地震和81%的4级地震)绝大多数都分布在这个区域,第1天的余震主要在这个区域呈近SN向分布,余震由西向东扩展。在这次于田地震的近SN方向上曾在1982、2011以及2012年先后发生过几次6级左右的地震,而这次地震填补了其中的空段。文中从区域构造环境、地震震源机制解和余震分布特征等方面,分析这次地震的发震过程,认为地震发生在硝尔库勒盆地南缘的分支断裂,受阿尔金断裂带构造应力影响,硝尔库勒盆地受到局部近EW向的拉张作用力,首先沿近SN向破裂,这个构造部位的解锁,促进阿尔金断裂左旋错动,产生NE向破裂,应力向东传递;文中还对有历史记录以来,阿尔金断裂上7级地震的发震构造及其对阿尔金断裂带的影响进行了讨论。

新疆于田Mw7.2地震3D同震形变场解算与分析

基于OKADA弹性半空间模型和差分干涉测量获取的升、降轨两种不同视角的同震形变场,分析了于田地震三维同震形变场特征。结果表明:在垂直方向上,断层西盘沉降,最大沉降形变量达-109.7 cm,东盘隆升,最大隆升形变量为19.2 cm;在东西方向上,断层西盘以朝西运动为主,最大形变量达-51.4 cm,东盘朝东运动,最大形变量达98.5 cm;在南北方向上,断裂西盘以朝南运动为主,最大形变量达-66.5 cm,断裂东盘朝北运动,最大形变量为25.8 cm;合成后的水平向形变表明,断层具有西盘朝南走滑、东盘朝北走滑的形变特征,揭示出于田地震断层为正断兼左旋走滑的破裂机制。

2014年新疆于田M_S7.3地震序列重定位及其发震构造初步研究

2014年2月12日在新疆于田县发生了MS7.3地震,主震前一天在震区发生了MS5.4前震,震后余震活动频繁,由于震区台站十分稀疏和不均匀、地壳速度结构复杂,台网常规定位结果精度有限,很难从中获得序列的空间分布特征和活动趋势的正确认识.本文首先利用位于震区附近的于田地震台5年记录的远震波形数据,采用接收函数方法研究了震区附近的地壳结构,建立了震源区的地壳速度模型.在此基础上,联合震相到时和方位角对2014年于田MS7.3地震序列(从2014年02月11日—2014年04月30日,共计577次地震)进行了重新绝对定位.结果显示,(1)重定位后的前震和主震震中位置明显向地表破裂带及其附近的阿尔金分支断裂(南肖尔库勒断裂和阿什库勒—肖尔库勒断裂)靠近,两者相距5.4km,主震位置为36.076°N、82.576°E,震源深度为22km,前震位置为36.055°N、82.522°E,震源深度为19km;(2)本文重定位结果显示,余震序列沿NEE-SWW展布,优势分布长度约73km、宽度约16km,平均震源深度为14.8km,其中77%的余震分布在地表破裂带的西南端,这部分余震中少数沿阿什库勒—肖尔库勒断裂分布,绝大多数沿北东东向的南肖尔库勒断裂分布,位于地表破裂带东北端的余震沿阿什库勒—肖尔库勒断裂分布,但发生在地表破裂带的余震极少;重定位后,位于地表破裂带西南侧的震中分布由台网目录的近南北向变为北东向,与地表破裂带、南肖尔库勒断裂和阿什库勒—肖尔库勒断裂走向一致;(3)沿重定位剖面的地震分布,可推断位于地表破裂带西南段的南肖尔库勒断裂与位于北东段的阿什库勒—肖尔库勒断裂倾向反向,南肖尔库勒断裂的倾向为SE,阿什库勒—肖尔库勒断裂的倾向为NW,这与本次地震野外考察得到的断裂性质一致.综合重定位结果、地表破裂带分布、震源机制解、南肖尔库勒断裂和阿什库勒—肖尔库勒断裂的性质认为,2014年于田MS7.3地震的发震构造为阿尔金断裂西南尾段的两条分支断裂——南肖尔库勒断裂和阿什库勒—肖尔库勒断裂.

2014年新疆于田M_S7.3地震强地面运动模拟及震动图预测

基于地震动的时空衰减规律和传播特征,采用邻近地震监测台站地震动时程对1km×1km尺度的网格点进行近实时插值计算,同时结合场地效应对震区地震动参数进行修正,并以2014年2月12日新疆于田MS7.3地震为例,计算震区格网内各点的地震时程,同时以8s为时间间隔绘制出地震动峰值等值线图并将其连续播放,得到了于田MS7.3地震峰值地震动(PGV,PGA)的空间分布.结果表明,于田县东部至民丰县北部地区受场地条件影响,震区震害在软弱地基土层及浅地下水位等因素作用下对震区地震动具有明显的放大效应,预测的地震动特征与现场宏观调查结果是一致的.在当前强震台网分布不均匀的情形下,本文方法能较好地描述震区地震动特征,较客观地反映灾区的强地面运动特征.

基于高频GNSS的2014年2月12日于田M_S7.3地震的同震位移研究

于田MS7.3地震后,第一时间收集到震中350 km范围内4个基准站1Hz高频数据,并用TRACK模块进行解算,研究结果发现,①距离震中54 km处的于田基准站同震变化最明显,尤其是东西分量,变化幅度达52.5±11 mm,超过解算精度3倍中误差;②于田基准站东西分量出现变化量值最大的时间在震后1 min内;③北南分量变化不大。

2014年2月12日于田7.3级地震异常特征分析

分析和田测震、电磁、形变资料,发现2014年2月12日于田7.3级地震震前3种监测手段均不同程度出现异常,异常时间和形态各有不同。通过对异常特征研究分析,认为于田7.3级地震震前地震活动,电磁场的"反向对称"异变,形变的异常加速、拐弯、打结,都反映出此次地震在地壳运动、应力积累、调整以及能量的释放过程中所形成的一个较大的孕震背景。

1992年吉尔吉斯苏撒孟尔7．3级地震的地震构造与地震破裂

１９９２年８月１９日吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国苏撒孟尔盆地发生７．３级地震，主余震为６．７级。地震发生于北天山褶皱带内。震中烈度Ⅸ度。极震区内地震滑坡、崩塌呈ＥＷ向带状分布，并有地裂、泥砂喷发现象发生。主震和主余震的宏观震中区均产生地震断层陡坎。主震断层陡坎最高３．３５ｍ，陡坎总长度为１ｋｍ，陡坎走向为Ｎ６５°Ｅ～Ｎ８０°Ｅ，主震断层以逆推为主，并兼有右旋扭动。地震断层自南向北逆冲的水平距离是２ｍ左右。主余震断层陡坎长３ｋｍ，走向Ｎ６５°Ｗ，高７５ｃｍ左右。探槽开挖证实，主余震断层产状为Ｎ７２°Ｗ／１９２°∠１０°，地震时由南向北逆冲的水平距离是１ｍ。Ⅶ度以上等烈度线特征。

强震前的“加速矩释放”(AMR)现象:对一个有争议的地震前兆的回溯性震例研究

近年来,国际上对于强震前的加速矩释放(AMR)现象是否可作为一种可靠的、带有普遍性的地震前兆现象争议较大.本文以2008年3月21日新疆于田 M_s 7.3地震为例,试图从前兆存在的客观性和与地震发生的物理相关性两方面考察本次地震前的 AMR 现象.用"破裂时间分析"方程中的幂指数 m 作为描述震前加速矩释放"程度"的参量,在时间-空间-地震序列截止震级组成的三维参数空间(T,R,M_c)内考察 AMR 现象存存的客观性.考虑了多种因素对 m(T,R,M_c)分布图像可能的影响,其中,余震是否删除和 M_c 对计算影响不大,但 M_L 6.0以上"干扰"事件的影响则较大.结果表明,于田地震前的确存在 AMR 现象,但得到的 m(T,R,M_c)分布图像较为复杂,可观测到两个明显的 AMR 集中分布区.此外,在以实际震中为圆心的多个圆形区域内,使用固定时间窗向实际发震时刻滑动逼近,可观测到 m 值逐渐减小,即加速特征逐渐明显的过程.对震前矩释放程度 m 值的时-空扫描结果显示,出现 AMR 现象的空间区域与震中位置似有较好的对应,但其时-空演化图像与滑动时-空窗的选取有关.这表明,本次 M_s 7.3地震前的确存在 AMR 现象,并与其孕震过程在物理上相关.但本文仅是一个震例的研究,无法给出具有统计显著性的结论。此外,用 AMR 来约束地震发生的时间看来是困难的.

1950年以来帕米尔东北缘—西昆仑地区7级左右地震后新疆地区中强地震活动状态分析

本文类比分析了1950年以来帕米尔东北缘—西昆仑地区7级左右地震发生后3年内新疆地区中强以上地震的活动状态,并进一步讨论了2008年于田7.3级和乌恰6.8级地震后新疆地区的地震活动特点。结果表明,1950年以来帕米尔东北缘—西昆仑地区7级左右地震发生后,新疆地区应变能释放相对较为充分,震后3年通常无6.5级以上强震发生;7级左右地震后3年新疆地区5级以上地震频度总体呈下降趋势,2008年于田7.3级地震后5级以上地震出现的活跃—平静的显著差异性活动特征与1974年乌兹别里山口7.3级地震和1996年喀喇昆仑山口7.1级地震后较为相似。此外,结合新疆地区强震活动的动力学环境作用和帕米尔东北缘—西昆仑地区7级左右地震的震源机制特征,初步探讨分析了该区7级左右地震后3年内新疆地区中强以上地震空间活动特征的可能成因。

新疆及其邻区4次M≥7强震预测总结与未来7级强震预测研究——基于有序网络结构分析

1800年以来,新疆及其邻区M≥7强震具有显著的可公度性和有序性,其主要有序值为(30a)×k(k=1,2,3)、11~12a、41~43a、18~19a与5~6a等.利用翁文波信息预测理论,根据已有的研究成果,将有序网络结构分析与复杂网络技术相结合,补充新信息,不断总结优化和构建该研究区M≥7强震二维平面与三维立体有序网络结构,充分揭示该区210多年来M≥7强震的活动规律,并据此较为成功地预测了1996年以来该区所发生的4次M≥7强震,即从1996年喀拉昆仑山7.1级强震,到2003年俄、蒙、中边境7.9级强震,再到2008、2014年于田2次7.3级强震.同时还提出新的预测意见:该研究区未来2次M≥7强震将可能发生在2019—2020、2025—2026年前后.研究结果表明:强震是可以预测的.有序网络结构分析方法对于强震的中长期跨越式预测具有独特效果.

新疆于田地区地震活动趋势分析

2008年和2014年,新疆和田地区于田县先后发生一次M_(S)7.3地震。2020年6月26日,该区再次发生MS 6.4地震,震源深度10 km,震中位于(35.73°N,82.33°E)。通过地震活动性和构造背景,探讨该区域未来地震孕育特征和地震活动危险性。(1)发震构造背景。新疆于田地区位于西昆仑断裂带康西瓦断裂、阿尔金断裂带和东昆仑地震带可可西里断裂交汇区域,地质构造发育且复杂。