Savings,investment,and growth in Nepal:an empirical analysis

This study analyzes the relationship between savings,investment,and economic growth in Nepal over 1975–2016.The structural breaks in the variables have been accounted for using the(Zivot and Andrews’s,J Bus Econ Stat 10:251–2701992)unit root test along with(Gregory and Hansen’s,Oxf Bull Econ Stat 58:555–560,1996)cointegration approach.The ARDL approach to cointegration in the presence of structural breaks has also been utilized to analyze the long-and short-run dynamics of savings,investment,and growth in Nepal.The results show structural breaks in the real GDP per capita during 2001 when the Royal Massacre and a state of emergency have taken place in Nepal.After allowing for this structural break,evidence of a cointegration relationship amongst savings,investment,and economic growth was identified.The estimates of the ARDL approach suggest that investment has a significant and positive impact on economic growth.However,gross domestic savings have a negative impact on growth in the long run.These results clearly show weaknesses of the economy in mobilizing savings into productive sectors.

The Public Savings’ Relation With Borrowing Requirement and Financial Balances After Global Crisis in Turkey

In this study, we aim to determine public savings’ structural location in the analysis of effect levels that are related to public borrowing requirement to cope with the deviation of financial balances, especially after 2009 global crisis in Turkey. Public savings as a financial option take up an important place in the scope of expressed government budget balances related to public borrowing requirements which are increasingly located together with budget deficits. This fact especially is pertaining to investments and capital’s transfers that are subject to the public decision making process towards economic growth in the future in developing countries like Turkey. Therefore, increasing public savings’ limits appear on these countries as an inevitable financial phenomenon concerning the desired investments. Turkey, as a developing country, has faced two financial phenomenons that increase borrowing requirement terms that lead to intend financial balances that have generally deviated after 2009 financial crisis. Firstly, it’s increasing foreign debt burden and the public savings’ levels that have not been enough to cover all the proportion of foreign debt payments since 2009. Secondly, the effect level of global crisis on the exchange rates directly causes the deviation of national currency values as a meaningful important negative impact on budget balances that are aimed at together with the macroeconomic financial balances.

Analytic Hierarchy Process in Service of Customized Offer in Banking： Savings and Investment

Today＇s banking institutions spread their product and service line on a daily basis. This effort to increase competitiveness is also creating an overstocked supply for existing and new clients. Not every product is meant for every client and aggressive sales strategies tend to repel clients which can cause serious problems in long-term client-bank relations. This paper will analyze savings and investments products along with their adaptation and modulation regarding client needs. Accordingly, banks will be able to offer particular products to clients with specific needs and wishes. The analytic hierarchy process, or simply AHP method, represents a process which will be able to transform client＇s demands and affinities into a customized offer. It is an easy-to-implement method used in any step of the decision-making process; the process must have multiple alternatives and each of them carries specific characteristics. The decision maker ranks all the characteristics and simultaneously all the alternatives, according to his affinities forming a final decision. This paper will explain how banks will be able to adapt to client needs and wishes in the future using the AHP method.

Domestic Savings,Investment,and Economic Growth:an Empirical Evidence from Nepal using VEC Model

This study examines the relationship between domestic savings,investment,and economic growth in Nepal by using time series data covering from the period 1975 to 2019.The vector error correction model(VECM)has been used to investigate the long-run and short-run causal relationship between the variables.The Johansen cointegration test results confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between savings,investment,and economic growth.Therefore,further analysis has to be set for the VEC model to analyze both long-run and short-run causality.The VECM equation result is-0.1363 which is the adjustment speed of disequilibrium towards the equilibrium in long run.The coeffi cient of savings and investments are positive with economic growth which also indicates that both variables have a positive impact on economic growth in the short run.The results of the Jarque-Bera test show the residual distribution is normally distributed.For the model stability test,the study performed recursive estimation applying CUSUM and CUSUM of square,and both tests move within the 5 percent level of upper and lesser bound significance indicating that the model is stable over the observation period.Overall,the study suggests that in Nepal,domestic savings and investment growth have a positive contribution to economic growth.The central bank,planning commission,and ministry of finance should focus on stimulating the capital formation and productive sector investment for sustainable economic growth in Nepal.

Investment risk evaluation of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO

The investment risk management of the existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO cannot be separated from the scientific risk measurement and evaluation. The investment risk assessment is the basis of investment decision and project implementation. Based on the content analysis and balance of evaluation principle of investment risk evaluation on the existing building energy-saving renovation project, we set up three levels of existing building energy-saving renovation project investment risk evaluation index system, use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the quantitative process, get the scientific assessment of the investment risk of existing building energy-saving renovation project, and support the investment risk response strategy and control measures of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO.

China’s internal and external economic imbalances and fiscal reform

China’s ballooning current account surplus has caused a plethora of adverse effects on the healthy development of its economy.Based on an in-depth analysis of the contributory factors to the swelling current account surplus,this paper purports to demonstrate theoretically and empirically that while the chronic savings-consumption imbalance is an important contributor to China’s huge trade surplus,the fundamental underlying contributor is the income structure and savings structure imbalance stemming from the disproportionate increase in retained earnings relative to stagnant wage bills.Corporate retained earnings keep growing rapidly because corporate profit margins are"overstated"and state-owned enterprises"do not pay dividends."Only when these issues are resolved at the institutional level can the savings rate be reduced to an appropriate level with domestic demand boosted to eliminate excess trade surpluses and fundamentally fix internal and external economic imbalances.

Effect of interest rate on economic performance: evidence from Islamic and non-Islamic economies

Background:Saving and investment are two of the most important tools for economic growth.The interest rate has always been considered an important determinant of saving and investment.However,according to Islamic teachings,riba or earning interest on saving or investment is forbidden,and thus,many Muslims try to avoid earning income from the interest rate.Therefore,the aim of this study is to assess the effects of this religious guideline on the financial decisions of an Islamic country’s population and its impact on saving and investment.Methods:We applied the random effect and system generalized method of moments(GMM)model separately to data of 17 non-Islamic and 17 Islamic countries from 2005 to 2013.Results:The results suggest that people in Islamic countries are not concerned about the interest rate on saving,but in non-Islamic countries,the interest rate,per capita income,and inflation have significant positive impacts,and national expenditure has a significant negative impact on saving.However,in Islamic countries,remittances received and national expenditure have negative significant impacts,and per capita income has a positive significant impact on saving.In the case of investment,interest rate and inflation show a negative effect on investment while trade affects investment positively in both Islamic and non-Islamic countries.Furthermore,domestic credit provided by banks has a negative significant effect on investment in non-Islamic countries,while in Islamic countries,remittances show a positive significant impact on investment.Conclusions:The governments and policy makers of Islamic countries should not imitate the economic policies of non-Islamic countries because religious factors play an important role in the interest rate-saving relationship.Instead,they should increase per capita income by improving employment conditions and by reducing remittances received and national expenditure.Policies on saving should not allow earning interest.Furthermore,in order to increase investment,efforts should be made to lower the interest rate and inflation,and to enhance remittances received and trade.These policies will increase saving and investment in Islamic countries,ultimately resulting in improved economic growth.

人口老龄化与外商直接投资:影响机制与实证分析——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

基于2003—2020年中国省级面板数据,将储蓄率和劳动力成本纳入同一分析框架,从理论和实证两个层面探究人口老龄化对外商直接投资流入的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明,人口老龄化与外商直接投资流入存在显著的倒U形关系,且存在时空异质性:空间异质性,表现为老龄化对外商直接投资流入的影响呈现东、中、西部逐渐下降趋势;时间异质性,表现为2012—2020年人口老龄化对外商直接投资的影响程度明显高于2003—2011年。储蓄率在人口老龄化影响外商直接投资流入的过程中表现出正向调节效应,起到推动作用,而劳动力成本起到部分中介效应,且劳动力成本对外商直接投资流入的影响力随着老龄化的持续加剧而扩大,阻碍了外商直接投资的流入。为此,各级政府要完善劳动权益保障体系,加大人力资本投入力度,制定完善的外资引入机制,引导外商直接投资区域均衡发展。

我国个人养老金制度有效性分析及完善路径

基于行为生命周期理论和前景理论阐述了个人养老金的制度设计,分析了我国个人养老金制度的深层运行逻辑,发现个人养老储蓄心理账户不可替代、投资风险厌恶程度高、税收优惠政策吸引力有限等问题,提出了增设默认机制、加强市场和政府调节监督力度及补充税收优惠模式等手段来完善个人养老金制度。

从“竞争性储蓄”到“竞争性投资”:再论性别失衡对中国家庭金融决策的影响

“竞争性储蓄”理论认为,中国性别失衡现象可能促使家庭增加储蓄,以提升子女在婚恋市场的竞争力。在金融体系持续发展、风险金融资产供给增加的新时代背景下,家庭金融决策可能因性别失衡而从传统储蓄转向风险投资。利用2015、2017、2019年三轮中国家庭金融调查数据,基于广义双重差分模型研究发现:性别失衡加剧的省份中,有儿子的家庭更倾向于参与金融市场并持有风险资产,但未发现“竞争性买房”的证据;金融知识水平低、已成年儿子未婚的家庭风险金融决策对性别失衡更敏感。因此,因性别失衡而涉足风险金融市场的家庭可能被高收益率所吸引而忽视潜在风险,政府部门需加强对居民普及金融知识、强调理性参与投资,方能保障金融体系的稳定和健康发展。

普惠金融发展与居民储蓄行为——来自中国家庭金融调查的证据

在普惠金融快速发展叠加社会储蓄率长期居高不下的双重背景下,基于中国家庭金融调查数据检验了普惠金融对居民储蓄的边际影响和可能的作用机制,并探讨了数字经济在普惠金融与居民储蓄之间的调节作用。研究结果表明:普惠金融发展显著促进了居民储蓄总额的增加和储蓄率的提升,特别是与2017年相比,普惠金融发展在2019年带来的储蓄效应进一步扩大。具体作用路径有两条:一是“普惠金融发展—金融排斥缓解—储蓄增加”;二是“普惠金融发展—居民金融素养提高—储蓄增加”。进一步研究发现,数字经济在普惠金融发展促进居民储蓄行为中存在正向调节作用,普惠金融与数字经济的结合可以产生更大的储蓄扩张效应;同时,考虑政策时滞后发现,普惠金融发展在短期内更有可能促进居民的活期储蓄行为,而在长期则更有可能促进居民的定期储蓄行为。最后,由普惠金融发展引起的储蓄增加有效转化成了社会生产投资,有助于从生产端驱动经济增长;但由新增的储蓄转化成社会生产投资的幅度较低,仍有进一步提高的空间。

地铁通风空调投资节约潜力研究

通过对若干样本的地铁通风空调投资数据进行统计分析,采用更新后的投资推荐指标进行统一核算,获得地铁通风空调投资节约潜力相关数据,并与节能收益数据进行对比分析。结果表明,约有2/3的典型样本工程在地铁通风空调投资方面具有明显的节约空间,投资节约主要数据分别为51.69万元/站(单站指标)、3.86亿元(总量指标)、4.09%(节约率指标)。与20.85万元/(站·年)的地铁通风空调节能收益调研数据均值相比,典型样本工程通风空调投资节约潜力是其2.48倍。

“双碳”目标下中央空调节能改造与设计

在“双碳”目标下,随着人们绿色节能意识的不断提高,中央空调系统作为建筑中重要的能源消耗设施,越来越受到社会关注。空调水系统作为中央空调系统的关键组成部分,其能耗状态、运行策略以及节能设计都离不开对系统水力特性的考量。从这一角度出发,分析了中央空调水系统存在的大流量、小温差、高阻力和水力平衡等问题,探讨了如何通过分析水力问题看供需失衡的本质,并且通过讨论系统环路水力特性与系统阻力特性模型,推导出相应水力公式与分析结论。给出中央空调水系统的设计既要系统低阻性,又要水力平衡性好,还要水力可调性高,且系统配置合理的综合节能设计的参考结论,从而助力中央空调节能改造与设计应用于“双碳”绿色节能领域。

基于合同能源管理模式的云机房节能改造方案设计及经济性分析

以北京市朝阳区某云机房为例,调研机房现状空调情况,分析电量电费数据。针对系统存在的制冷能效低、运行费用高、通风散热差等问题,提出加装6个制冷量为50kW的风冷氟泵冷却模块及采用高压雾化喷淋系统两项改造措施,并基于15年期合同能源管理模式,计算项目动态投资回收期,评判项目投资回收风险。测算结果表明,机房年均节电量306.55 MWh,节能率35.25%,减排二氧化碳93.06t,改造后机房PUE值由1.82降至1.58;工程投资额151.8万元,年均节约费用26.98万元,税后内部收益率13.18%,动态投资回收期7.22年;节能环保效益及经济效益较好,以期为园区乃至北京市类似机房升级改造提供参考和借鉴。

招标控制价对工程项目质量和成本的双重影响评估

在当前经济与环境背景下,政府工程项目的成本效益与质量控制尤为重要。招标控制价作为一种重要的成本控制手段,对于确保工程项目在预算内完成并满足质量标准具有不可忽视的作用。然而,招标控制价的设定与实施过程中存在的不足,如过度设计、施工方案不合理等问题,常常导致资源浪费与投资效率低下。文章旨在探讨招标控制价对工程项目的成本与质量的影响,并通过案例分析,揭示优化设计、施工方案的重要性;同时,还探讨土石方平衡与石方利用的策略,以减少不必要的投资浪费,促进工程项目的经济与环境可持续性;最后提出了一系列实现成本与质量双重优化的策略,为政府工程项目管理提供新的视角和方法。

开式消雾节水技术在工业循环冷却水中的应用

循环冷却水系统节水是工业企业节水、节能的一个重要环节。常规开式循环冷却水塔因塔顶排放口易产生大量白雾,造成水资源的浪费;新型冷凝模块消雾节水冷却塔技术在消除白雾和节水方面成效显著,近年来受到广泛关注。分析了消雾节水冷却塔的消雾节水及工作原理,并与常规开式冷却塔进行了基本参数、运行费用、投资等方面的初步对比。初步估算,消雾节水冷却塔与常规冷却塔相比,蒸发水量和排污量可减少约20%,设备投资增加约80%,但整体运行费用较低,其投资成本在两年左右即可收回,在化工行业具有较好的应用前景。

我国储蓄投资失衡对经常项目失衡的影响——基于两缺口模型的实证研究

在以两缺口模型为理论基础分析一国储蓄投资失衡如何影响该国经常项目的基础上,具体分析了我国储蓄投资失衡、经常项目失衡的现状,并运用Eviews协整分析,检验了两缺口模型在我国宏观经济中的适用性,并得出结论:我国宏观经济内部失衡决定外部失衡,外部失衡不过是内部失衡外部表现。针对我国目前以内、外部失衡现状,提出两点建议:一是提高消费水平、完善资本市场机制以减少储蓄;二是保证投资需求稳步增长、调整投资结构。

多元视角下中美贸易失衡成因的实证研究

中美贸易失衡问题是两国近年来双边贸易争端的核心。造成两国贸易失衡的因素是多方面的,汇率、国际分工、整体经济失衡及FDI等因素都在不同程度影响两国贸易差额。通过回归分析发现,汇率水平、中国近年来持续快速的经济增长以及大量的FDI流入对中美贸易失衡都有影响。调整两国贸易差额需要多种手段,单纯依靠人民币升值很难解决中美贸易失衡问题。

基于储蓄-投资关系的中国区域间资本流动分析

本文采用新近提出的ARDL-ECM模型,通过检验各地区储蓄-投资的长期共积关系并计算其储蓄保留系数,从储蓄-投资相关关系这一新角度分析改革以来我国区域间的资本流动,实证结果与从不同流动渠道分析区域间资本流动的结论一致,即总体上东部是资本净流入地区,西部是资本净流出地区,中部地区基本持平,证实了资本向东部地区流动的区域间资本流动的基本趋势。