The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts:A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling

Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

Discontinuity development patterns and the challenges for 3D discrete fracture network modeling on complicated exposed rock surfaces

Natural slopes usually display complicated exposed rock surfaces that are characterized by complex and substantial terrain undulation and ubiquitous undesirable phenomena such as vegetation cover and rockfalls.This study presents a systematic outcrop research of fracture pattern variations in a complicated rock slope,and the qualitative and quantitative study of the complex phenomena impact on threedimensional(3D)discrete fracture network(DFN)modeling.As the studies of the outcrop fracture pattern have been so far focused on local variations,thus,we put forward a statistical analysis of global variations.The entire outcrop is partitioned into several subzones,and the subzone-scale variability of fracture geometric properties is analyzed(including the orientation,the density,and the trace length).The results reveal significant variations in fracture characteristics(such as the concentrative degree,the average orientation,the density,and the trace length)among different subzones.Moreover,the density of fracture sets,which is approximately parallel to the slope surface,exhibits a notably higher value compared to other fracture sets across all subzones.To improve the accuracy of the DFN modeling,the effects of three common phenomena resulting from vegetation and rockfalls are qualitatively analyzed and the corresponding quantitative data processing solutions are proposed.Subsequently,the 3D fracture geometric parameters are determined for different areas of the high-steep rock slope in terms of the subzone dimensions.The results show significant variations in the same set of 3D fracture parameters across different regions with density differing by up to tenfold and mean trace length exhibiting differences of 3e4 times.The study results present precise geological structural information,improve modeling accuracy,and provide practical solutions for addressing complex outcrop issues.

Human-like adrenal features in Chinese tree shrews revealed by multi-omics analysis of adrenal cell populations and steroid synthesis

The Chinese tree shrew(Tupaia belangeri chinensis)has emerged as a promising model for investigating adrenal steroid synthesis,but it is unclear whether the same cells produce steroid hormones and whether their production is regulated in the same way as in humans.Here,we comprehensively mapped the cell types and pathways of steroid metabolism in the adrenal gland of Chinese tree shrews using single-cell RNA sequencing,spatial transcriptome analysis,mass spectrometry,and immunohistochemistry.We compared the transcriptomes of various adrenal cell types across tree shrews,humans,macaques,and mice.Results showed that tree shrew adrenal glands expressed many of the same key enzymes for steroid synthesis as humans,including CYP11B2,CYP11B1,CYB5A,and CHGA.Biochemical analysis confirmed the production of aldosterone,cortisol,and dehydroepiandrosterone but not dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate in the tree shrew adrenal glands.Furthermore,genes in adrenal cell types in tree shrews were correlated with genetic risk factors for polycystic ovary syndrome,primary aldosteronism,hypertension,and related disorders in humans based on genome-wide association studies.Overall,this study suggests that the adrenal glands of Chinese tree shrews may consist of closely related cell populations with functional similarity to those of the human adrenal gland.Our comprehensive results(publicly available at http://gxmujyzmolab.cn:16245/scAGMap/)should facilitate the advancement of this animal model for the investigation of adrenal gland disorders.

Theoretical and Experimental Study on the Performance of Hermetic Diaphragm Squeeze Film Dampers for Gas-Lubricated Bearings

Low damping characteristics have always been a key sticking points in the development of gas bearings.The application of squeeze film dampers can significantly improve the damping performance of gas lubricated bearings.This paper proposed a novel hermetic diaphragm squeeze film damper(HDSFD)for oil-free turbomachinery supported by gas lubricated bearings.Several types of HDSFDs with symmetrical structure were proposed for good damping performance.By considering the compressibility of the damper fluid,based on hydraulic fluid mechanics theory,a dynamic model of HDSFDs under medium is proposed,which successfully reflects the frequency dependence of force coefficients.Based on the dynamic model,the effects of damper fluid viscosity,bulk modulus of damper fluid,thickness of damper fluid film and plunger thickness on the dynamic stiffness and damping of HDSFDs were analyzed.An experimental test rig was assembled and series of experimental studies on HDSFDs were conducted.The damper fluid transverse flow is added to the existing HDSFD concept,which aims to make the dynamic force coefficients independent of frequency.Although the force coefficient is still frequency dependent,the damping coefficient at high frequency excitation with damper fluid supply twice as that without damper fluid supply.The results serve as a benchmark for the calibration of analytical tools under development.

Research on the Classification of Western Literary Criticism Under M. H. Abrams’Fourfold Model

This study explores the application of Abrams’Fourfold Model in the classification of Western literary criticism.Abrams’framework categorizes literary criticism into four fundamental elements:text,author,world,and audience.The text is viewed as an independent entity with intrinsic artistic value,necessitating a detailed analysis of its structure,style,themes,and symbols.Author study delves into the creator’s life and socio-cultural context,often to uncover the work’s deeper meanings.Contextual study situates the work within its historical and social milieu,examining its reflection of or response to societal norms and events.Audience response analysis considers the diverse interpretations shaped by readers’backgrounds,emphasizing the reader’s role in constructing the work’s meaning.The study concludes that Abrams’Fourfold Model offers a comprehensive and flexible analytical tool,enabling critics to engage with literary works from multiple perspectives,thereby enriching the understanding of literary complexity and diversity.

Analysis of an event study using the Fama–French five‑factor model:teaching approaches including spreadsheets and the R programming language

The current financial education framework has an increasing need to introduce tools that facilitate the application of theoretical models to real-world data and contexts.However,only a limited number of free tools are available for this purpose.Given this lack of tools,the present study provides two approaches to facilitate the implementa-tion of an event study.The first approach consists of a set of MS Excel files based on the Fama–French five-factor model,which allows the application of the event study methodology in a semi-automatic manner.The second approach is an open-source R-programmed tool through which results can be obtained in the context of an event study without the need for programming knowledge.This tool widens the calculus possibilities provided by the first approach and offers the option to apply not only the Fama–French five-factor model but also other models that are common in the finan-cial literature.It is a user-friendly tool that enables reproducibility of the analysis and ensures that the calculations are free of manipulation errors.Both approaches are freely available and ready-to-use.

A study of the load transfer behavior of fully grouted rock bolts with analytical modelling

Fully grouted rock bolts have been used in mining industry for many years.Much research has been conducted to evaluate the load transfer behavior of fully grouted rock bolts with experimental programs.However,compared with that,less work has been conducted with analytical modelling.Therefore,in this paper,the authors used an analytical model to study the load transfer behavior of fully grouted rock bolts.To confirm the credibility of this analytical model,an in-situ pull-out test was used to validate this model.There was a close match between the experimental result and the analytical result.Following it,a parametric study was conducted with this analytical model.The influence of coefficients,Young’s modulus of the rock bolt and the diameter of the rock bolt on the load transfer performance of rock bolts was studied.Furthermore,the load distribution along the fully grouted rock bolt was analytically studied.The results show that the axial load in the rock bolt decayed from the loaded end to the free end independent of the pull-out load.However,the trend of the load distribution curve was influenced by the pull-out load.This paper was beneficial for better understanding the load transfer mechanism of fully grouted rock bolts.

Comparative study of HFACS and the 24Model accident causation models

A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） and the accident causation ＂2-4＂ model（24 Model）, as well as to provide a reference for safety researchers and accident investigators to select an appropriate accident analysis method. The two models are compared in terms of their theoretical foundations, cause classifications, accident analysis processes, application ranges, and accident prevention strategies. A coal and gas outburst accident is then analyzed using both models, and the application results are compared. This study shows that both the 24 Model and HFACS have strong theoretical foundations, and they can each be applied in various domains. In addition, the cause classification in HFACS is more practical, and its accident analysis process is more convenient. On the other hand, the 24 Model includes external factors, which makes the cause analysis more systematic and comprehensive. Moreover, the 24 Model puts forward more corresponding measures to prevent accidents.

Application of in vitro and in vivo models in the study of food allergy

Food allergy is one of the most important food safety problems that has attracted increasing attention.The food allergy experimental models provide not only the accurate allergen detection and evaluation methods but also the powerful approaches for mechanism investigations.In this paper,we reviewed the common food allergy cell models including mast cell,basophil granulocyte and basophil,as well as the animal models of BALB/c mouse,C3H/HeJ mouse,and BN rat.We also introduced zebrafish,a promising model organism for investigating immunity though lacking direct applications in food allergy to date,and focused on traumatic inflammation,bacterial infection and viral infection models.In addition,we also summarized the clinical diagnostic research methods for food allergy.The elucidation of these topics will help researchers to understand the characteristics and mechanisms of various models and thus select the proper models for particular study,so as to support further investigations of food allergy.

24Model与LCM原因因素定义对比研究

为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分析结果之间的差异。研究结果表明:LCM是首个将管理因素纳入事故致因分析的一维事件序列模型,可明确各层面原因因素的定义和因素间的逻辑关系,但部分定义存在交叉重复的问题,并没有揭示安全工作指导思想等深层次事故致因因素;24Model作为系统性事故致因模型,对各类因素的定义均以组织为主体,描述事件、事故、安全的概念内涵,划分个体安全动作、安全能力和组织安全管理体系的类别并给出含义解析,探究组织安全文化层面的问题并以32个元素体现;2个模型的事故原因分析方法均建立在对各层级原因因素定义的基础上,并适用于模型理论体系本身。

Snow and sea ice thermodynamics in the Arctic:Model validation and sensitivity study against SHEBA data

Evolution of the Arctic sea ice and its snow cover during the SHEBA year were simulated by applying a high-resolution thermodynamic snow/ice model （HIGHTSI）. Attention was paid to the impact of albedo on snow and sea ice mass balance, effect of snow on total ice mass balance, and the model vertical resolution. The SHEBA annual simulation was made applying the best possible external forcing data set created by the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project. The HIGHTSI control run reasonably reproduced the observed snow and ice thickness. A number of albedo schemes were incorporated into HIGHTSI to study the feedback processes between the albedo and snow and ice thickness. The snow thickness turned out to be an essential variable in the albedo parameterization. Albedo schemes dependent on the surface temperature were liable to excessive positive feedback effects generated by errors in the modelled surface temperature. The superimposed ice formation should be taken into account for the annual Arctic sea ice mass balance.

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in offshore wind modeling over the Baltic Sea

Accurate wind modeling is important for wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting. To improve the WRF model configuration for the offshore wind modeling over the Baltic Sea, this study performed a sensitivity study of the WRF model to multiple model configurations, including domain setup,grid resolution, sea surface temperature, land surface data, and atmosphere-wave coupling. The simulated offshore wind was evaluated against LiDAR observations under different wind directions, atmospheric stabilities, and sea status. Generally, the simulated wind profiles matched observations, despite systematic underestimations. Strengthening the forcing from the reanalysis data through reducing the number of nested domains played the largest role in improving wind modeling. Atmosphere-wave coupling further improved the simulated wind, especially under the growing and mature sea conditions.Increasing the vertical resolution, and updating the sea surface temperature and the land surface information only had a slight impact, mainly visible during very stable conditions. Increasing the horizontal resolution also only had a slight impact, most visible during unstable conditions. Our study can help to improve the wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting over the Baltic Sea.

Offshore Software Maintenance Outsourcing Process Model Validation:A Case Study Approach

The successful execution and management of Offshore Software Maintenance Outsourcing(OSMO)can be very beneficial for OSMO vendors and the OSMO client.Although a lot of research on software outsourcing is going on,most of the existing literature on offshore outsourcing deals with the outsourcing of software development only.Several frameworks have been developed focusing on guiding software systemmanagers concerning offshore software outsourcing.However,none of these studies delivered comprehensive guidelines for managing the whole process of OSMO.There is a considerable lack of research working on managing OSMO from a vendor’s perspective.Therefore,to find the best practices for managing an OSMO process,it is necessary to further investigate such complex and multifaceted phenomena from the vendor’s perspective.This study validated the preliminary OSMO process model via a case study research approach.The results showed that the OSMO process model is applicable in an industrial setting with few changes.The industrial data collected during the case study enabled this paper to extend the preliminary OSMO process model.The refined version of the OSMO processmodel has four major phases including(i)Project Assessment,(ii)SLA(iii)Execution,and(iv)Risk.

Hydraulic modeling and optimization of jet mill bit considering the characteristics of depressurization and cuttings cleaning

A jet mill bit(JMB)is proposed to increase the drilling efficiency and safety of horizontal wells,which has the hydraulic characteristics of depressurization and cuttings cleaning.This paper fills the gap in the hydraulic study of the JMB by focusing on the hydraulic modeling and optimization of the JMB and considering these two hydraulic characteristics.First,the hydraulic depressurization model and the hydraulic cuttings cleaning model of the JMB are developed respectively.In the models,the pressure ratio and efficiency are chosen as the evaluation parameters of the depressurization capacity of the JMB,and the jet hydraulic power and jet impact force are chosen as the evaluation parameters of cuttings cleaning capacity of the JMB.Second,based on the hydraulic models,the effects of model parameters[friction loss coefficient,target inclination angle,rate of penetration(ROP),flow ratio,and well depth]on the hydraulic performance of the JMB are investigated.The results show that an increase in the friction loss coefficient and target inclination angle cause a significant reduction in the hydraulic depressurization capacity,and the effect of ROP is negligible.The flow ratio is positively related to the hydraulic cuttings cleaning capacity,and the well depth determines the maximum hydraulic cuttings cleaning capacity.Finally,by combining the hydraulic depressurization model and hydraulic cuttings cleaning model,an optimization method of JMB hydraulics is proposed to simultaneously maximize the jet depressurization capacity and the cuttings cleaning capacity.According to the drilling parameters given,the optimal values of the drilling fluid flow rate,backward nozzle diameter,forward nozzle diameter,and throat diameter can be determined.Moreover,a case study is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the optimization method.

The semi-analytical modeling and vibration reduction analysis of the cylindrical shell with piezoelectric shunt damping patches

By considering electromechanical coupling, a unified dynamic model of the cylindrical shell with the piezoelectric shunt damping patch(PSDP) is created. The model is universal and can simulate the vibration characteristic of the shell under different states including the states in which PSDP cannot be connected, partially connected, and completely connected to the shunt circuit. The equivalent loss factor and elastic modulus with frequency dependence are proposed to consider the electrical damping effect of resistance shunt circuits. Moreover, the semi-analytical dynamic equation of the cylindrical shell with PSDP is derived by the Lagrange equation. An experimental test is carried out on the cylindrical shell with PSDP to verify the vibration suppression ability of PSDP on the cylindrical shell and the correctness of the proposed model. Furthermore, the parameter analysis shows that determining the appropriate resistance value in the shunt circuit can achieve a good vibration suppression effect.

Analysis and Experimental Study on the Friction Force at the Binding Point of Flexible Cable on Satellite

Mainly for the problem that the friction force generated by the existing process of bind-ing,fixing and fastening the flexible cable on the satellite is unknown,the friction force analysis and experimental research on the binding point of the flexible cable are carried out.The equivalent model of the cable bundle bound by nylon cable ties is established,the force on the binding point is analyzed,and the empirical formula for calculating the friction force at the binding point is estab-lished.The formula shows that the friction force is related to the cable bundle diameter,the number of winding cycles of silicone rubber tape,the width of nylon cable ties,and the binding force.The friction force tests of the cable diameter of 5.06 mm,8.02 mm,24.02 mm,38.04 mm under different winding turns of tape were carried out,which was compared with the theoretical calculation value.It is concluded that the calculation accuracy of the theoretical model is more than 95%,which can estimate the actual friction force value accurately.This provides a reference and basis for the theoretical and experimental research on the friction force of the flexible cable binding point on satellite.

Flow-Induced Clogging in Microfiltration Membranes: Numerical Modeling and Parametric Study

Microfiltration membrane technology has been widely used in various industries for solid-liquid separation. However, pore clogging remains a persistent challenge. This study employs (CFD) and discrete element method (DEM) models to enhance our understanding of microfiltration membrane clogging. The models were validated by comparing them to experimental data, demonstrating reasonable consistency. Subsequently, a parametric study was conducted on a cross-flow model, exploring the influence of key parameters on clogging. Findings show that clogging is a complex phenomenon affected by various factors. The mean inlet velocity and transmembrane flux were found to directly impact clogging, while the confinement ratio and cosine of the membrane pore entrance angle had an inverse relationship with it. Two clog types were identified: internal (inside the pore) and external (arching at the pore entrance), with the confinement ratio determining the type. This study introduced a dimensionless number as a quantitative clogging indicator based on transmembrane flux, Reynolds number, filtration time, entrance angle cosine, and confinement ratio. While this hypothesis held true in simulations, future studies should explore variations in clogging indicators, and improved modeling of clogging characteristics. Calibration between numerical and physical times and consideration of particle volume fraction will enhance understanding.

Bridge plating in the setting of radiocarpal instability:Does distal fixation to the second or third metacarpal matter?A cadaveric study

BACKGROUND Radiocarpal dislocations are rare but potentially devastating injuries.Poorer outcomes are associated with inadequate or lost reduction,such as ulnar translocation,but no consensus exists on the ideal fixation technique.Dorsal bridge plate fixation has been described for various settings in the treatment of complex distal radius fractures and can be fixed distally to the second or third metacarpal,but its application for radiocarpal dislocations has not been established.AIM To determine whether distal fixation to the second or third metacarpal matters.METHODS Using a cadaveric radiocarpal dislocation model,the effect of distal fixation was studied in two stages:(1)A pilot study that investigated the effect of distal fixation alone;and(2)a more refined study that investigated the effect of described techniques for distal and proximal fixation.Radiographs were measured in various parameters to determine the quality of the reduction achieved.RESULTS The pilot study found that focusing on distal fixation alone without changing proximal fixation results in ulnar translocation and volar subluxation when fixing distally to the second metacarpal compared with the third.The second iteration demonstrated that anatomic alignment in coronal and sagittal planes could be achieved with each technique.CONCLUSION In a cadaveric radiocarpal dislocation model,anatomic alignment can be maintained with bridge plate fixation to the second metacarpal or the third metacarpal if the described technique is followed.When considering dorsal bridge plate fixation for radiocarpal dislocations,the surgeon is encouraged to understand the nuances of different fixation techniques and how implant design features may influence proximal placement.

Modeling study on the flow patterns of gas–liquid flow for fast decarburization during the RH process

A water model and a high-speed video camera were utilized in the 300-t RH equipment to study the effect of steel flow patterns in a vacuum chamber on fast decarburization and a superior flow-pattern map was obtained during the practical RH process. There are three flow patterns with different bubbling characteristics and steel surface states in the vacuum chamber： boiling pattern（BP）, transition pattern（TP）, and wave pattern（WP）. The effect of the liquid-steel level and the residence time of the steel in the chamber on flow patterns and decarburization reaction were investigated, respectively. The liquid-steel level significantly affected the flow-pattern transition from BP to WP, and the residence time and reaction area were crucial to evaluate the whole decarburization process rather than the circulation flow rate and mixing time. A superior flow-pattern map during the practical RH process showed that the steel flow pattern changed from BP to TP quickly, and then remained as TP until the end of decarburization.

Three-dimensional models of antigens with serodiagnostic potential for leprosy:An in silico study

BACKGROUND Leprosy is a disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae(M.leprae),an intracellular pathogen that has tropism and affects skin and nervous system cells.The disease has two forms of presentation:Paucibacillary and multibacillary,with different clinical and immunological manifestations.Unlike what occurs in the multibacillary form,the diagnostic tests for the paucibacillary form are nonspecific and not very sensitive,allowing the existence of infected individuals without treatment,which contributes to the spread of the pathogen in the population.To mitigate this contamination,more sensitive diagnostic tests capable of detecting paucibacillary patients are needed.AIM To predict the three-dimensional structure models of M.leprae antigens with serodiagnostic potential for leprosy.METHODS In this in silico study,satisfactory templates were selected in the Protein Data Bank(PDB)using Basic Local Alignment Search Tool to predict the structural templates of ML2038,ML0286,ML0050,and 85B antigens by comparative modeling.The templates were selected according to general criteria such as sequence identity,coverage,X-ray resolution,Global Model Quality Estimate value and phylogenetic relationship;Clustal X 2.1 software was used in this analysis.Molecular modeling was completed using the software Modeller 9v13.Visualization of the models was made using ViewerLite 4.2 and PyMol software,and analysis of the quality of the predicted models was performed using the QMEAN score and Z-score.Finally,the three-dimensional moels were validated using the MolProbity and Verify 3D platforms.RESULTS The three-dimensional structure models of ML2038,ML0286,ML0050,and 85B antigens of M.leprae were predicted using the templates PDB:3UOI(90.51%identity),PDB:3EKL(87.46%identity),PDB:3FAV(40.00%identity),and PDB:1F0N(85.21%identity),respectively.The QMEAN and Z-score values indicated the good quality of the structure models.These data refer to the monomeric units of antigens,since some of these antigens have quaternary structure.The validation of the models was performed with the final three-dimensional structure-monomer(ML0050 and 85B antigens)and quaternary structures(ML2038 and ML0286).The majority of amino acid residues were observed in favorable and allowed regions in the Ramachandran plot,indicating correct positioning of the side chain and absence of steric impediment.The MolProbity score value and Verify 3D results of all models indicated a satisfactory prediction.CONCLUSION The polarized immune response against M.leprae creates a problem in leprosy detection.The selection of immunodominant epitopes is essential for the development of more sensitive serodiagnostic tests,for this it is important to know the three-dimensional structure of the antigens,which can be predicted with bioinformatics tools.