Prediction and driving factors of forest fire occurrence in Jilin Province,China

Forest fires are natural disasters that can occur suddenly and can be very damaging,burning thousands of square kilometers.Prevention is better than suppression and prediction models of forest fire occurrence have developed from the logistic regression model,the geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,the random forest model,and the support vector machine model based on historical forest fire data from 2000 to 2019 in Jilin Province.The models,along with a distribution map are presented in this paper to provide a theoretical basis for forest fire management in this area.Existing studies show that the prediction accuracies of the two machine learning models are higher than those of the three generalized linear regression models.The accuracies of the random forest model,the support vector machine model,geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,and logistic model were 88.7%,87.7%,86.0%,85.0%and 84.6%,respectively.Weather is the main factor affecting forest fires,while the impacts of topography factors,human and social-economic factors on fire occurrence were similar.

An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.

Reconstructing historical forest fire risk in the non-satellite era using the improved forest fire danger index and long short-term memory deep learning-a case study in Sichuan Province,southwestern China

Historical forest fire risk databases are vital for evaluating the effectiveness of past forest management approaches,enhancing forest fire warnings and emergency response capabilities,and accurately budgeting potential carbon emissions resulting from fires.However,due to the unavailability of spatial information technology,such databases are extremely difficult to build reliably and completely in the non-satellite era.This study presented an improved forest fire risk reconstruction framework that integrates a deep learning-based time series prediction model and spatial interpolation to address the challenge in Sichuan Province,southwestern China.First,the forest fire danger index(FFDI)was improved by supplementing slope and aspect information.We compared the performances of three time series models,namely,the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),Prophet and long short-term memory(LSTM)in predicting the modified forest fire danger index(MFFDI).The bestperforming model was used to retrace the MFFDI of individual stations from 1941 to 1970.Following this,the Anusplin spatial interpolation method was used to map the distributions of the MFFDI at five-year intervals,which were then subjected to weighted overlay with the distance-to-river layer to generate forest fire risk maps for reconstructing the forest fire danger database.The results revealed LSTM as the most accurate in fitting and predicting the historical MFFDI,with a fitting determination coefficient(R^2)of 0.709,mean square error(MSE)of0.047,and validation R^2 and MSE of 0.508 and 0.11,respectively.Independent validation of the predicted forest fire risk maps indicated that 5 out of 7 historical forest fire events were located in forest fire-prone areas,which is higher than the results determined from the original FFDI(2 out of 7).This proves the effectiveness of the improved MFFDI and indicates a high level of reliability of the historical forest fire risk reconstruction method proposed in this study.

Determination of the Pile Drivability Using Random Forest Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization and Bayesian Optimizer

Driven piles are used in many geological environments as a practical and convenient structural component.Hence,the determination of the drivability of piles is actually of great importance in complex geotechnical applications.Conventional methods of predicting pile drivability often rely on simplified physicalmodels or empirical formulas,whichmay lack accuracy or applicability in complex geological conditions.Therefore,this study presents a practical machine learning approach,namely a Random Forest(RF)optimized by Bayesian Optimization(BO)and Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO),which not only enhances prediction accuracy but also better adapts to varying geological environments to predict the drivability parameters of piles(i.e.,maximumcompressive stress,maximum tensile stress,and blow per foot).In addition,support vector regression,extreme gradient boosting,k nearest neighbor,and decision tree are also used and applied for comparison purposes.In order to train and test these models,among the 4072 datasets collected with 17model inputs,3258 datasets were randomly selected for training,and the remaining 814 datasets were used for model testing.Lastly,the results of these models were compared and evaluated using two performance indices,i.e.,the root mean square error(RMSE)and the coefficient of determination(R2).The results indicate that the optimized RF model achieved lower RMSE than other prediction models in predicting the three parameters,specifically 0.044,0.438,and 0.146;and higher R2 values than other implemented techniques,specifically 0.966,0.884,and 0.977.In addition,the sensitivity and uncertainty of the optimized RF model were analyzed using Sobol sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo(MC)simulation.It can be concluded that the optimized RF model could be used to predict the performance of the pile,and it may provide a useful reference for solving some problems under similar engineering conditions.

The effects of data aggregation on long-term projections of forest stands development

Forest management planning often relies on Airborne Laser Scanning(ALS)-based Forest Management Inventories(FMIs)for sustainable and efficient decision-making.Employing the area-based(ABA)approach,these inventories estimate forest characteristics for grid cell areas(pixels),which are then usually summarized at the stand level.Using the ALS-based high-resolution Norwegian Forest Resource Maps(16 m×16 m pixel resolution)alongside with stand-level growth and yield models,this study explores the impact of three levels of pixel aggregation(standlevel,stand-level with species strata,and pixel-level)on projected stand development.The results indicate significant differences in the projected outputs based on the aggregation level.Notably,the most substantial difference in estimated volume occurred between stand-level and pixel-level aggregation,ranging from-301 to+253 m^(3)·ha^(-1)for single stands.The differences were,on average,higher for broadleaves than for spruce and pine dominated stands,and for mixed stands and stands with higher variability than for pure and homogenous stands.In conclusion,this research underscores the critical role of input data resolution in forest planning and management,emphasizing the need for improved data collection practices to ensure sustainable forest management.

Mathematical Modeling of Crown Forest Fire Spread

Mathematical model of forest fire was based on an analysis of known experimental data and using concept and methods from reactive media mechanics. In this paper the assignment and theoretical investigations of the problems of crown forest fire spread in windy condition were carried out. In this context, a study—mathematical modeling—of the conditions of forest fire spreading that would make it possible to obtain a detailed picture of the change in the temperature and component concentration fields with time, and determine as well as the limiting condition of fire propagation in forest with fire break.

Climate and fire drivers of forest composition and openness in the Changbai Mountains since the Late Glacial

Ongoing climate changes have a direct impact on forest growth;they also affect natural fire regimes,with further implications for forest composition.Understanding of how these will affect forests on decadal-to-centennial timescales is limited.Here we use reconstructions of past vegetation,fire regimes and climate during the Holocene to examine the relative importance of changes in climate and fire regimes for the abundance of key tree species in northeastern China.We reconstructed vegetation changes and fire regimes based on pollen and charcoal records from Gushantun peatland.We then used generalized linear modelling to investigate the impact of reconstructed changes in summer temperature,annual precipitation,background levels of fire,fire frequency and fire magnitude to identify the drivers of decadal-to-centennial changes in forest openness and composition.Changes in climate and fire regimes have independent impacts on the abundance of the key tree taxa.Climate variables are generally more important than fire variables in determining the abundance of individual taxa.Precipitation is the only determinant of forest openness,but summer temperature is more important than precipitation for individual tree taxa with warmer summers causing a decrease in cold-tolerant conifers and an increase in warmth-demanding broadleaved trees.Both background level and fire frequency have negative relationships with the abundance of most tree taxa;only Pinus increases as fire frequency increases.The magnitude of individual fires does not have a significant impact on species abundance on this timescale.Both climate and fire regime characteristics must be considered to understand changes in forest composition on the decadal-to-centennial timescale.There are differences,both in sign and magnitude,in the response of individual tree species to individual drivers.

The Mathematical Model of Short-Term Forest Fire Spread

In this paper, we establish a mathematical model of the forest fire spread process based on a partial differential equation. We describe the distribution of time field and velocity field in the whole two-dimensional space by vector field theory. And we obtain a continuous algorithm to predict the dynamic behavior of forest fire spread in a short time. We use the algorithm to interpolate the fire boundary by cubic non-uniform rational B-spline closed curve. The fire boundary curve at any time can be simulated by solving the Eikonal equation. The model is tested in theory and in practice. The results show that the model has good accuracy and stability, and it’s compatible with most of the existing models, such as the elliptic model and the cellular automata model.

Smart prediction of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading

The prediction of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading/displacement(Dh)is a challenging task for civil/geotechnical engineers.In this study,a new approach is proposed to predict Dh using gene expression programming(GEP).Based on statistical reasoning,individual models were developed for two topographies:free-face and gently sloping ground.Along with a comparison with conventional approaches for predicting the Dh,four additional regression-based soft computing models,i.e.Gaussian process regression(GPR),relevance vector machine(RVM),sequential minimal optimization regression(SMOR),and M5-tree,were developed and compared with the GEP model.The results indicate that the GEP models predict Dh with less bias,as evidenced by the root mean square error(RMSE)and mean absolute error(MAE)for training(i.e.1.092 and 0.815;and 0.643 and 0.526)and for testing(i.e.0.89 and 0.705;and 0.773 and 0.573)in free-face and gently sloping ground topographies,respectively.The overall performance for the free-face topology was ranked as follows:GEP>RVM>M5-tree>GPR>SMOR,with a total score of 40,32,24,15,and 10,respectively.For the gently sloping condition,the performance was ranked as follows:GEP>RVM>GPR>M5-tree>SMOR with a total score of 40,32,21,19,and 8,respectively.Finally,the results of the sensitivity analysis showed that for both free-face and gently sloping ground,the liquefiable layer thickness(T_(15))was the major parameter with percentage deterioration(%D)value of 99.15 and 90.72,respectively.

Implication of community-level ecophysiological parameterization to modelling ecosystem productivity:a case study across nine contrasting forest sites in eastern China

Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods.

The potential for an old-growth forest to store carbon in the topsoil:A case study at Sasso Fratino,Italy

There is considerable interest devoted to oldgrowth forests and their capacity to store carbon(C)in biomass and soil.Inventories of C stocks in old-growth forests are carried out worldwide,although there is a lack of information on their actual potential for C sequestration.To further understand this,soil organic carbon(SOC)was measured in one of Italy's best-preserved old-growth forests,the Sasso Fratino Integral Nature Reserve.This reserve is on the World Heritage List along with other ancient beech forests of Europe,and it is virtually untouched due to the steepness of the terrain,even before legal constraints were imposed.Although the sandstone-derived soils are often shallow,they are rich in organic matter.However,no quantification had been carried out.By systematically sampling the topsoil across the forest,we accurately determined the average amount of SOC(62.0±16.9 Mg ha^(–1))and nitrogen(4.0±1.2 Mg ha^(–1))in the top 20 cm.Using the CENTURY model,future dynamics of SOC stocks were predicted to 2050 according to two climate scenarios,A1F1 and B2,the first of high concern and the second more optimistic.The model projected an increase of 0.2 and 0.3 Mg ha^(–1)a^(–1)by 2030 under the A1F1 and B2 scenarios,respectively,suggesting that the topsoil in old-growth forests does not reach equilibrium but continues accumulating SOC.However,from 2030 to 2050,a decline in SOC accumulation is predicted,indicating SOC net loss at high altitudes under the worst-case scenario.This study confirms that soils in oldgrowth forests play a significant role in carbon sequestration.It also suggests that climate change may affect the potential of these forests to store SOC not only in the long term but also in the coming years.

The burden of upper motor neuron involvement is correlated with the bilateral limb involvement interval in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis:a retrospective observational study

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a rare neurodegenerative disease characterized by the involvement of both upper and lower motor neurons.Early bilateral limb involvement significantly affects patients'daily lives and may lead them to be confined to bed.However,the effect of upper and lower motor neuron impairment and other risk factors on bilateral limb involvement is unclear.To address this issue,we retrospectively collected data from 586 amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients with limb onset diagnosed at Peking University Third Hospital between January 2020 and May 2022.A univariate analysis revealed no significant differences in the time intervals of spread in different directions between individuals with upper motor neuron-dominant amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and those with classic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.We used causal directed acyclic graphs for risk factor determination and Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the association between the duration of bilateral limb involvement and clinical baseline characteristics in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients.Multiple factor analyses revealed that higher upper motor neuron scores(hazard ratio[HR]=1.05,95%confidence interval[CI]=1.01–1.09,P=0.018),onset in the left limb(HR=0.72,95%CI=0.58–0.89,P=0.002),and a horizontal pattern of progression(HR=0.46,95%CI=0.37–0.58,P<0.001)were risk factors for a shorter interval until bilateral limb involvement.The results demonstrated that a greater degree of upper motor neuron involvement might cause contralateral limb involvement to progress more quickly in limb-onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients.These findings may improve the management of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients with limb onset and the prediction of patient prognosis.

Drivers of spatial structure in thinned forests

Background:As is widely known,an increasing number of forest areas were managed to preserve and enhance the health of forest ecosystems.However,previous research on forest management has often overlooked the importance of structure-based.Aims:Our objectives were to define the direction of structure-based forest management.Subsequently,we investigated the relationships between forest structure and the regeneration,growth,and mortality of trees under different thinning treatments.Ultimately,the drivers of forest structural change were explored.Methods:On the basis of 92 sites selected from northeastern China,with different recovery time (from 1 to 15years) and different thinning intensities (0–59.9%) since the last thinning.Principal component analysis (PCA)identified relationships among factors determining forest spatial structure.The structural equation model (SEM)was used to analyze the driving factors behind the changes in forest spatial structure after thinning.Results:Light thinning (0–20%trees removed) promoted forest regeneration,and heavy thinning (over 35% of trees removed) facilitated forest growth.However,only moderate thinning (20%–35%trees removed) created a reasonable spatial structure.While dead trees were clustered,and they were hardly affected by thinning intensity.Additionally,thinning intensity,recovery time,and altitude indirectly improve the spatial structure of the forest by influencing diameter at breast height (DBH) and canopy area.Conclusion:Creating larger DBH and canopy area through thinning will promote the formation of complex forest structures,which cultivates healthy and stable forests.

A geographical similarity-based sampling method of non-fire point data for spatial prediction of forest fires

Understanding the mechanisms and risks of forest fires by building a spatial prediction model is an important means of controlling forest fires.Non-fire point data are important training data for constructing a model,and their quality significantly impacts the prediction performance of the model.However,non-fire point data obtained using existing sampling methods generally suffer from low representativeness.Therefore,this study proposes a non-fire point data sampling method based on geographical similarity to improve the quality of non-fire point samples.The method is based on the idea that the less similar the geographical environment between a sample point and an already occurred fire point,the greater the confidence in being a non-fire point sample.Yunnan Province,China,with a high frequency of forest fires,was used as the study area.We compared the prediction performance of traditional sampling methods and the proposed method using three commonly used forest fire risk prediction models:logistic regression(LR),support vector machine(SVM),and random forest(RF).The results show that the modeling and prediction accuracies of the forest fire prediction models established based on the proposed sampling method are significantly improved compared with those of the traditional sampling method.Specifically,in 2010,the modeling and prediction accuracies improved by 19.1%and 32.8%,respectively,and in 2020,they improved by 13.1%and 24.3%,respectively.Therefore,we believe that collecting non-fire point samples based on the principle of geographical similarity is an effective way to improve the quality of forest fire samples,and thus enhance the prediction of forest fire risk.

Can a multistage approach improve individual tree mortality predictions across the complex mixed-species and managed forests of eastern North America?

Tree mortality plays a fundamental role in the dynamics of forest ecosystems,yet it is one of the most difficult phenomena to accurately predict.Various modeling strategies have been developed to improve individual tree mortality predictions.One less explored strategy is the use of a multistage modeling approach.Potential improvements from this approach have remained largely unknown.In this study,we developed a novel multistage approach and compared its performance in individual tree mortality predictions with a more conventional approach using an identical individual tree mortality model formulation.Extensive permanent plot data(n=9442)covering the Acadian Region of North America and over multiple decades(1965–2014)were used in this study.Our results indicated that the model behavior with the multistage approach better depicted the observed mortality and showed a notable improvement over the conventional approach.The difference between the observed and predicted numbers of dead trees using the multistage approach was much smaller when compared with the conventional approach.In addition,tree survival probabilities predicted by the multistage approach generally were not significantly different from the observations,whereas the conventional approach consistently underestimated mortality across species and overestimated tree survival probabilities over the large range of DBH in the data.The new multistage approach also predictions of zero mortality in individual plots,a result not possible in conventional models.Finally,the new approach was more tolerant of modeling errors because it based estimates on ranked tree mortality rather than error-prone predicted values.Overall,this new multistage approach deserves to be considered and tested in future studies.

Prediction of forest fire occurrence in China under climate change scenarios

Climate change has an impact on forest fire patterns.In the context of global warming,it is important to study the possible effects of climate change on forest fires,carbon emission reductions,carbon sink effects,forest fire management,and sustainable development of forest ecosystems.This study is based on MODIS active fire data from 2001-2020 and the influence of climate,topography,vegetation,and social factors were integrated.Temperature and precipitation information from different scenarios of the BCC-CSM2-MR climate model were used as future climate data.Under climate change scenarios of a sustainable low development path and a high conventional development path,the extreme gradient boosting model predicted the spatial distribution of forest fire occurrence in China in the 2030s(2021-2040),2050s(2041-2060),2070s(2061-2080),and2090s(2081-2100).Probability maps were generated and tested using ROC curves.The results show that:(1)the area under the ROC curve of training data(70%)and validation data(30%)were 0.8465 and 0.8171,respectively,indicating that the model can reasonably predict the occurrence of forest fire in the study area;(2)temperature,elevation,and precipitation were strongly correlated with fire occurrence,while land type,slope,distance from settlements and roads,and slope direction were less strongly correlated;and,(3)based on future climate change scenarios,the probability of forest fire occurrence will tend to shift from the south to the center of the country.Compared with the current climate(2001-2020),the occurrence of forest fires in 2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080,and 2081-2100 will increase significantly in Henan Province(Luoyang,Nanyang,S anmenxia),Shaanxi Province(Shangluo,Ankang),Sichuan Province(Mianyang,Guangyuan,Ganzi),Tibet Autonomous Region(Shannan,Linzhi,Changdu),Liaoning Province(Liaoyang,Fushun,Dandong).

Impact of forest governance and enforcement on deforestation and forest degradation at the district level:A study in West Bengal State,India

According to the United Nations Environmental Programme(UNEP),the world loses 1.0×106hm2forest land through deforestation annually.About 1.6×106people who depend on forests for livelihood are negatively affected by deforestation and forest degradation.The paper attempts to study the impact of forest governance,enforcement and socio-economic factors on deforestation and forest degradation at the local level in West Bengal State,India.The study was based on questionnaire survey data during 2020–2021 collected from three western districts(Purulia,Bankura,and Paschim Medinipur)where deforestation and poverty rates are higher than other districts in West Bengal State.The total number of selected villages was 29,and the total sample households were 693.A stratified random sampling technique was used to collect data,and a questionnaire was followed.Forest governance and enforcement indices were constructed using United Nation Development Programme(UNDP)methodology and a step-wise logistic regression model was used to identify the factors affecting deforestation and forest degradation.The result of this study showed that four factors(illegal logging,weak forest administration,encroachment,and poverty)are identified for the causes of deforestation and forest degradation.It is observed that six indices of forest governance(rule of law,transparency,accountability,participation,inclusiveness and equitability,and efficiency and effectiveness)are relatively high in Purulia District.Moreover,this study shows that Purulia and Bankura districts follow medium forest governance,while Paschim Medinipur District has poor forest governance.The enforcement index is found to be highest in Purulia District(0.717)and lowest for Paschim Medinipur District(0.257).Finally,weak forest governance,poor socio-economic conditions of the households,and weak enforcement lead to the deforestation and forest degradation in the study area.Therefore,governments should strengthen law enforcement and encourage sustainable forest certification schemes to combat illegal logging.

Identification of Mixtures of Two Types of Body Fluids Using the Multiplex Methylation System and Random Forest Models

Objective Body fluid mixtures are complex biological samples that frequently occur in crime scenes,and can provide important clues for criminal case analysis.DNA methylation assay has been applied in the identification of human body fluids,and has exhibited excellent performance in predicting single-source body fluids.The present study aims to develop a methylation SNaPshot multiplex system for body fluid identification,and accurately predict the mixture samples.In addition,the value of DNA methylation in the prediction of body fluid mixtures was further explored.Methods In the present study,420 samples of body fluid mixtures and 250 samples of single body fluids were tested using an optimized multiplex methylation system.Each kind of body fluid sample presented the specific methylation profiles of the 10 markers.Results Significant differences in methylation levels were observed between the mixtures and single body fluids.For all kinds of mixtures,the Spearman’s correlation analysis revealed a significantly strong correlation between the methylation levels and component proportions(1:20,1:10,1:5,1:1,5:1,10:1 and 20:1).Two random forest classification models were trained for the prediction of mixture types and the prediction of the mixture proportion of 2 components,based on the methylation levels of 10 markers.For the mixture prediction,Model-1 presented outstanding prediction accuracy,which reached up to 99.3%in 427 training samples,and had a remarkable accuracy of 100%in 243 independent test samples.For the mixture proportion prediction,Model-2 demonstrated an excellent accuracy of 98.8%in 252 training samples,and 98.2%in 168 independent test samples.The total prediction accuracy reached 99.3%for body fluid mixtures and 98.6%for the mixture proportions.Conclusion These results indicate the excellent capability and powerful value of the multiplex methylation system in the identification of forensic body fluid mixtures.

Forest fire risk assessment in parts of Northeast India using geospatial tools

Forest fire is a major cause of changes in forest structure and function. Among various floristic regions, the northeast region of India suffers maximum from the fires due to age-old practice of shifting cultivation and spread of fires from jhum fields. For proper mitigation and management, an early warning of forest fires through risk modeling is required. The study results demonstrate the potential use of remote sensing and Geographic Information System （GIS） in identifying forest fire prone areas in Manipur, southeastern part of Northeast India. Land use land cover （LULC）, vegetation type, Digital elevation model （DEM）, slope, aspect and proximity to roads and settlements, factors that influence the behavior of fire, were used to model the forest fire risk zones. Each class of the layers was given weight according to their fire inducing capability and their sensitivity to fire. Weighted sum modeling and ISODATA clustering was used to classify the fire zones. TO validate the results, Along Track Scanning Radiometer （ATSR）, the historical fire hotspots data was used to check the occurrence points and modeled forest fire locations. The forest risk zone map has 55-63% of agreement with ATSR dataset.