Burden of gastrointestinal cancers among working-age population over past thirty years in China

BACKGROUND Although gastrointestinal(GI)cancers have been becoming a great public health concern in China,there is currently a lack of comprehensive literature on the overall burden and changing trends of GI cancers in the working-age population.AIM To assess the burden of GI cancers and to examine the overall,age-and genderspecific trends among the working-age population in China from 1990 to 2019.METHODS Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.The burden of GI cancers was indicated by incidence,mortality,disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs),age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized mortality rate,and age-standardized DALYs rate.Trends in the burden of GI cancers from 1990 to 2019 were examined using annual percent change and average annual percent change with Joinpoint regression models.RESULTS For overall GI cancers,a declining trend was observed in the ASIR,age-standardized mortality rate,and agestandardized DALYs rate,with reductions of 0.74%,2.23%,and 2.22%,respectively,from 1999 to 2019 in the Chinese working-age population.However,an increasing trend was observed in the ASIR for overall GI cancers from 2016-2019.The number of either incident cases,mortality cases,and DALYs was higher for colon/rectum cancer and liver cancer in younger participants but lower for esophageal,gallbladder,biliary tract,pancreatic,and stomach cancer among older subjects.Moreover,sex disparity in the GI cancers burden was also examined over 30 years.CONCLUSION The total burden of GI cancers remained heavy among the working-age population in China,although declining trends were observed from 1999 to 2019.Disparities in the GI cancers burden existed between sexes,age groups,and cancer types.Population-based precision prevention strategies are needed to tackle GI cancers among working-age individuals,considering the age,sex,and cancer type disparities in China.

Pairwise Shared Genealogical Ancestry in Structured Populations

Simulation was used to investigate the effects of population structure and migration on metrics of pairwise shared ancestry. Random and hierarchical structures, or migration geometries, were examined. Compared to panmictic populations, progress to all qualitative metrics of pairwise ancestry is delayed in structured populations. However, unless migration is very low, the time required is generally less than triple and often less than twice that required in a panmictic population of the same total size. Population structure also increases, to a similar degree, the time required for a population-wide most recent common ancestor (MRCA). As a result, the relationships between various qualitative metrics of pairwise shared ancestry and MRCA time are relatively unaffected by population structure. For example, the mean time to most recent shared ancestor (MRSA) with global sampling of pairs is 40% - 50% of the MRCA time for almost all simulated structures and migration levels. Quantitative pairwise genealogical overlap is strongly affected by population structure. With global sampling, pairwise quantitative overlap never approaches 1.0, as it does in panmictic populations;and instead eventually becomes stationary at much lower values. Possible implications of the present results for human pairwise shared ancestry are discussed. For globally sampled pairs, the longest time to most recent shared ancestor (MRSA) for humans is suggested to be approximately 2100 years before the present. If generation time is 30 years, then all humans are 69th, or closer, cousins. For people with recent European ancestry, the MRSA time may be only half as long, about 1000 years.

Why Does China＇s Labor Income Share Tend to Decline？- From the Perspective of Population Age Structure Change

Using a theoretical model, this article concludes that age structures influence people＇s propensity to save and thereby influence their capital intensity. In the context that capital and labor are in a substitutional relation, increased capital intensity may lead to a drop of labor income share. We perform empirical research with provincial-level data from 1990 to 2007 and have proved that the rising of the old dependency ratio and the decrease of the children dependency rate both contribute to the fall of labor income share. This assumption still holds true after the authors control the influences of other potential factors that may influence labor income share

The Probability of Pairwise Shared Ancestry and the Expected Number of Pairs of k-th Cousins in a Population Sample

An analytical solution is derived for the probability that a random pair of individuals from a panmictic population of size N will share ancestors who lived G generations previously. The analysis is extended to obtain 1) the probability that a sample of size s will contain at least one pair of (G - 1)th cousins;and 2) the expected number of pairs of (G - 1)th cousins in that sample. Solutions are given for both monogamous and promiscuous (non-monogamous) cases. Simulation results for a population size of N = 20,000 closely approximate the analytical expectations. Simulation results also agree very well with previously derived expectations for the proportion of unrelated individuals in a sample. The analysis is broadly consistent with genetic estimates of relatedness among a sample of 406 Danish school children, but suggests that a different genetic study of a heterogenous sample of Europeans overestimates the frequency of cousin pairs by as much as one order of magnitude.

Spatio-Temporal Population Density and Spatial Dynamic Spectrum Allocation

A realistic population density distribution scenario in conjunction with the spatial dynamic spectrum allocation （DSA） is taken into account to mitigate the spectrum wastage in terms of extra guard bands. For the insertion of the extra guard bands, an efficient strategy based on self-assessment is applied to each victim cell individually and independently. Consequently, it is no more required to spread the extra guard band over the whole DSA region. Simulation results StlOW an improvement of 3% -4% in percentage of satisfied users for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System （UMTS） network and 4%-5% for Digital Video Broadcasting Terrestrial （DVB-T） network.

Issues concerning Citizenization Cost Sharing of the Population Transferred from Agriculture: A Case Study of Chongqing

The citizenization of the population transferred from agriculture is an inevitable process for Chinese social transformation,and one of the core issues in the course of new urbanization. The core problem in citizenization of the population transferred from agriculture lies in cost.Taking Chongqing as an example,this paper calculates the total citizenization cost to be 125038. 7 yuan for the population transferred from agriculture. Through field survey and research,this paper analyzes the current situation of citizenization cost sharing of the population transferred from agriculture in Chongqing,points out some problems in cost sharing such as inadequate governmental financial capacity,absence of business and lack of personal affordability,and finally brings forward the corresponding policy recommendations.

A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy’s Impact on China’s Future Population

The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.

我国各民族就业人口产业结构共同现代化历程研究

就业是最基本的民生,也是推动各民族共同走向现代化、推动中华民族共同体建设的重要手段。通过利用第三次至第七次全国人口普查资料,对改革开放40年来我国各民族就业人口产业结构现代化发展的历史进程进行了分析,结果显示,第一,40年来,各民族就业产业结构类型从以原始型为主转变为发展型占绝对优势,现代化转变趋势凸显。第二,我国各民族就业人口产业结构现代化历程经历四个阶段:1982至1990年为蓄能阶段,各民族人口在第一产业的占比下降幅度较小,现代化进程缓慢;1990至2000年为现代化起步阶段,东部地区外向型经济的发展带动各民族就业人口产业结构现代化起步;2000至2010年,西部大开发和特色产业发展加速民族地区经济模式转型,进入现代化加速阶段;2010至2020年,在精准扶贫等政策推动下,各民族就业人口产业结构现代化实现飞跃,少数民族整体第一产业比例降幅高达34.24个百分点,大多数民族进入现代化中后期。第三,各民族就业人口产业结构现代化差异性缩减,同步性凸显,各民族就业人口产业结构共同现代化的趋势得到确认。第四,目前存在个别民族第一产业人口占比依旧较高等问题,应该将这部分民族的发展作为未来民族工作的重点,争取在本世纪中叶实现56个民族全部完成就业人口产业结构现代化,实现全面建设社会主义现代化国家,一个民族也不能少。

增强劳动技能与改善劳动条件:农村低收入人口增收路径分析

扎实推进共同富裕,需要推动更多农村低收入人口迈入中等收入行列。如何对农村低收入人口进行类型细分,并探索其有效增收路径成为亟待解决的问题。从劳动视角进一步探源农村低收入人口收入困境发现,城乡二元体制、农村内部“共享”机制、人口生物性特征和社会性特征综合影响农村人口“劳动条件”和“劳动技能”,造成了部分群体收入低的现状;单一的劳动技能视角不能从根本上解决增收问题,必须促进劳动者的劳动技能与劳动对象的结合,在授人以渔的同时,还要确保他们有“捕鱼机会”。基于“劳动技能-劳动条件”结合情况,农村低收入人口类型可以划分为技能不足型、条件不足型以及技能与条件不足型共3种。促进农村低收入人口增收,在基本保障方面要建设关于体力劳动者的社会保护网,维持基本收入;在能力建设方面要构建基础性和专业性技能并重的人力资本增量体系,促进持续增收;在资产建设方面要实现规模农业与非农就业的和谐共进,释放增收潜力;在优化组合方面要实施劳动技能与劳动条件以强带弱的策略,形成增收合力。

人口变动对劳动收入份额的影响研究——基于人口集聚视角

人口变动分为自然变动、结构变动和迁移变动,它对劳动收入份额的变化起到了举足轻重的作用,而劳动收入份额的变动关系着国民收入初次分配公平问题,是破解收入分配和实现共同富裕的关键所在。从人口集聚角度出发,分别基于以上三种人口变动情况综合探究其对劳动收入份额的影响。一方面,基于改进的CES生产函数等相关经济模型对其作用机制进行理论数学推导;另一方面,为了进一步验证上述理论模型推导结果,基于中国31个省份2010-2022年面板数据选取相应指标构建基准回归、中介效应和门槛效应回归模型实证检验人口变动对劳动收入份额的影响关系并对不同区域进行异质性检验。创新点如下:首先,考虑到人口集聚效应的因素,将其作为中介变量建立中介效应模型和门槛变量进行门槛效应分析。其次,将人口变动的形式进行具体分类,分别探究不同形式下人口变动对劳动收入份额的影响。最后,本文采用实证模型同相关经济理论模型相结合的方式探究人口变动对劳动收入份额的影响。

用户体验视角下的合租房共享冰箱设计研究

为了满足合租房人群在租房场景下的冰箱产品使用需求,提高租户的生活质量,从用户体验的角度解决冰箱的使用痛点。通过用户视角对共享冰箱做了系统性研究,并用主观量表的形式调研合租用户在使用冰箱时遇到的问题与痛点。对共享冰箱的使用人群的心理、群体文化及人因操作进行分析,探讨使用者在各个方面的需求与期望。并以设计方法学为理论基础对合租房共享冰箱进行设计创作实践,从而解决合租房冰箱所存在的问题。分析发现合租房人群对现有冰箱的使用中存在诸多体验问题,并希望能得到设计上的改善,以提升合租生活的品质感。通过对冰箱使用人群的分析,归纳出合租人群对冰箱功能的需求及目前冰箱存在的问题,从用户体验的视角解决相关使用问题,从而提高合租用户使用冰箱的体验感。

人口老龄化、产业结构与劳动收入份额

基于1994—2017年中国省际面板数据,利用门槛效应模型,从产业结构视角考察了人口老龄化对劳动收入份额的非线性影响。研究发现:人口老龄化对劳动收入份额的影响呈现由负到正的非线性变化,产业结构发挥了重要调节作用,当第三产业与第二产业比值超过0.871时,人口老龄化对劳动收入份额的影响由负转正;在负向影响阶段,人口老龄化通过劳动资本的“相对价格”渠道与“相对数量”渠道对劳动收入份额产生影响,在正向影响阶段,“相对数量”渠道的作用不再显著,人口老龄化主要通过“相对价格”渠道对劳动收入份额产生影响;异质性检验发现,市场化程度和经济发展水平越高的地区,人口老龄化对劳动收入份额由负转正的影响越显著。

Reconstruct recent multi-population migration history by using identical-by-descent sharing

Identical-by-descent(IBD)is a fundamental genomic characteristic in population genetics and has been widely used for population history reconstruction.However,limited by the nature of IBD,which could only capture the relationship between two individuals/haplotypes,existing IBD-based history inference is constrained to two populations.In this study,we propose a framework by leveraging IBD sharing in multipopulation and develop a method,MatrixiBD,to reconstruct recent multi-population migration history.Specifically,we employ the structured coalescent theory to precisely model the genealogical process and then estimate the IBD sharing across multiple populations.Within our model,we establish a theoretical connection between migration history and IBD sharing.Our method is rigorously evaluated through simulations,revealing its remarkable accuracy and robustness.Furthermore,we apply MatrixiBD to Central and South Asia in the Human Genome Diversity Project and successfully reconstruct the recent migration history of three closely related populations in South Asia.By taking into account the IBD sharing across multiple populations simultaneously,MatrixlBD enables us to attain clearer and more comprehensive insights into the history of regions characterized by complex migration dynamics,providing a holistic perspective on intricate patterns embedded within the recent population migration history.

宜兴水北村语言实践与社会资本构建

乡村社会资本的培育可以为乡村振兴战略的实现提供支持,而社会资本的构建离不开语言。对江苏省宜兴市水北村村民、村委会干部、村企负责人和外来务工人员等采用民族志方法进行访谈调查,从“外出”“进来”和“留守”3个视角考察其语言实践,发现不同语言实践使水北村成为一个多言社区,不同主体间共享语言水平的差异对乡村社会资本的构建产生不同的影响:外出村企人员与客户之间、外来村委会干部与村民之间较好的共享语言水平帮助他们与业务伙伴、工作对象建立了良好的信任关系;祖孙间共享语言的缺乏影响儿童的社会化和社会规范培养,外来调查员与村民间共享语言的缺乏造成文明规范宣传的失效;与村民缺乏共享语言,导致来村务工人员不能与村民建立密切社会网络。而信任、规范与网络是构成社会资本的主要元素和表现形式,它们能够通过促进合作行为来提高社会的效率。未来乡村振兴实践中要关注语言规划,在进一步提升村民普通话能力的同时,注重提高村民的语言技术产品应用能力,重视农村儿童和来村务工人员方言能力的学习、培养和提升。

农业转移人口市民化成本分担综述与展望

加快推进农业转移人口市民化是实现城镇化的一项重要任务,高质量市民化进程缓慢的根本原因是农业转移人口市民化成本虚高。现阶段,有较多农业转移人口市民化成本方面的研究成果,采用文献分析法,通过回顾和整理国内学者对于农业转移人口市民化成本分担研究的相关成果,围绕农业转移人口市民化成本分担构成、分担成本精确化计算及量化方法阐述、成本分担机制构建等方面进行论述。通过对现有的研究文献进行梳理总结,不断地推动农业转移人口市民化成本分担的深入研究,从而促进新型城镇化和乡村振兴的发展。

新时代人口发展与科技创新关系的研究

当前,新一轮科技革命浪潮正席卷而来,我国人口发展却面临着增长率下降和老龄化趋势等严峻问题,为我国现代化建设带来挑战。本研究旨在系统性认识人口发展与科技创新的关系机制,并探索其协同助推我国现代化进程的思路。基于相关文献,本研究构建了二者相互作用的关系模型:人口发展从人口素质、规模、结构、流动性等多维度对科技创新产生影响,科技创新则通过生命科学改变人口规模和年龄结构,通过交通和信息技术促进动态化分布,通过人工智能等技术影响就业结构。针对当前我国人口发展的突出问题,基于这一模型提出了协同发展的思路:适度鼓励生育,缓解老龄化压力;市场化引导人口流动与聚集;发展银色经济,通过消费升级和素质提升实现创新驱动;创新人口信息共享机制,探索多元治理体系等。

医务社工联动介入老年居家安宁疗护共照模式的探索

老年人居家安宁疗护是一种重要的医疗服务模式,由于老年人的特殊性和照护难度,单一的医疗服务模式往往难以满足老年人的需求。因此,建立医务社工联动介入老年居家安宁疗护共照护理模式成为了一个重要的研究方向。本研究探讨老龄化趋势下医务社工联动参与居家安宁疗护的共照模式,旨在探索适合我国养老体系下的居家安宁疗护模式,规范化指引医务社工参与居家共照工作,发挥社工介入作用,为老年人提供全面的医疗和社会支持。

基于老幼复合共享的社区公共设施设计研究

目的探索人口老龄化背景下,实现我国社区公共设施老幼复合共享的设计要点。方法通过对老年人和儿童群体的生理、心理需求和行为活动特征进行分析,指出基于老幼复合共享的社区公共设施设计要以人为本,准确把握老年人和儿童群体在日常生活中的身心状态和行为活动的内在关联性。在设计中不仅需要妥善处理好老年人和儿童群体的健康安全、社交娱乐、情感归属需求,还应结合老年人和儿童群体的时域、地域以及类型进行关联思考,通过理论研究和案例论证,阐述如何通过社区公共设施设计促进老幼代际的交流与融合。结果得出基于老幼复合共享下的公共设施设计要点。结论基于老幼复合共享的社区公共设施设计需要关注老幼群体的共融、共助、共依、共娱,从协调多元需求、引导互助协作、促进交往陪伴、激发多维互动等方面进行设计探索,从而促进代际融合与全龄社区环境的实现。

论习近平以人为核心城市观的内涵和创新价值

习近平以人为核心的城市观是对以人为本的科学发展观的继承和发展,是人民中心思想的体现。针对以土地经济为核心的城镇化导致的城乡差距拉大、城市人口过密、交通拥堵、环境污染等问题,要求从经济社会全局考虑城镇化,以人口城镇化促进社会公平,降低城市人口密度,关注安全、健康、便利,把城市建设成为宜业宜居、舒适便利的高品质生活空间。强烈的、与时俱进的问题意识,重点突出、全面协调的问题解决方法,充分发挥市场在资源配置上的决定性作用和政府的职能,追求高品质生活空间,注重城市规划建设治理全过程的民主参与,是习近平城市观的创新之处和鲜明特色。

保持制造业比重稳定的路径探究

当前,制造业就业人员占比下降趋势明显、劳动力人口数量减少、年轻人不愿意进入制造业以及制造业“用工荒”“招人难”“留人难”等问题愈加凸显,需要引起高度重视。基于此,从五个方面分析制造业就业人员逐年下降的原因,并提出相应的对策建议。