BACKGROUND Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)has become the leading cause of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases(COCLDs).AIM To conduct a comprehensive and comparable updated analysis of the global,regiona...BACKGROUND Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)has become the leading cause of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases(COCLDs).AIM To conduct a comprehensive and comparable updated analysis of the global,regional,and national burden of COCLDs due to NAFLD in 204 countries and territories from 1990 and 2019 by age,sex,and sociodemographic index.METHODS Data on COCLDs due to NAFLD were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study 2019.Numbers and age-standardized prevalence,death,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were estimated through a systematic analysis of modelled data from the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study 2019.The estimated annual percentage change was used to determine the burden trend.RESULTS In 2019,the global age-standardized prevalence rate of COCLDs due to NAFLD was 15022.90 per 100000 population[95%uncertainty interval(UI):13493.19-16764.24],which increased by 24.51%(22.63%to 26.08%)from 1990,with an estimated annual percentage change of 0.78(95%confidence interval:0.74-0.82).In the same year,however,the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized DALYs per 100000 population were 1.66(95%UI:1.20-2.17)and 43.69(95%UI:31.28-58.38),respectively.North Africa and the Middle East had the highest prevalence rates of COCLDs due to NAFLD.The death rate increased with age up to the 95+age group for both sexes.Males had higher numbers of prevalence,death rate,and DALYs than females across all age groups before the 65-69 age group.The sociodemographic index was negatively correlated with the age-standardized DALYs.CONCLUSION Globally,the age-standardized prevalence rate has increased during the past three decades.However,the agestandardized death rate and age-standardized DALYs decreased.There is geographical variation in the burden of COCLDs due to NAFLD.It is strongly recommended to improve the data quality of COCLDs due to NAFLD across all countries and regions to facilitate better monitoring of the burden of COCLDs due to NAFLD.展开更多
Introduction: Indicators of maternal health are often used to evaluate the social development and overall health of a population, as well as the accessibility of health services. Among these indicators, the Potential ...Introduction: Indicators of maternal health are often used to evaluate the social development and overall health of a population, as well as the accessibility of health services. Among these indicators, the Potential Years of Life Lost, which is associated with maternal deaths, is useful for the definition of priorities, monitoring, evaluation, and intervention, identifying the highest risk groups. Objective: To analyze the Potential Years of Life Lost by maternal death in Santa Catarina in 2000 and 2014. Method: An Ecological study with exploratory spatial analysis was conducted with data obtained from the Information System on Mortality and Live Births. Results: In the Information System, 35 maternal deaths in the year 2000 were identified and 24 in 2014. The total estimated years of life lost were 845 years in 2000 and 780 years in 2014, dominated by direct obstetric causes. In 2000, women who died lost, on average, 39.8 years of life;and 41.5 years in 2014. Conclusion: The spatial pattern observed in 2000 highlights areas of high risk in different regions of Santa Catarina. The greatest loss of years occurred in younger women, confirming the need to prevent and control maternal mortality and review strategies for compliance with public policies in the State.展开更多
背景随着人口老龄化的加剧,心力衰竭(heart failure,HF)患病率呈上升趋势,老年心力衰竭的预警、风险分层研究对改善预后具有重要意义。目的探讨血尿素氮-白蛋白比值(blood urea nitrogen to albumin ratio,BAR)对老年心力衰竭患者1年内...背景随着人口老龄化的加剧,心力衰竭(heart failure,HF)患病率呈上升趋势,老年心力衰竭的预警、风险分层研究对改善预后具有重要意义。目的探讨血尿素氮-白蛋白比值(blood urea nitrogen to albumin ratio,BAR)对老年心力衰竭患者1年内死亡的预测价值;建立包含BAR在内的列线图,并验证其临床价值。方法建模数据来自解放军总医院2016年1月—2021年10月诊断为心力衰竭的1259例老年患者,验证队列来自2021年10月—2022年10月诊断为心力衰竭的314例老年患者。以1年病死率为结局指标,采用Logistic回归分析筛选预后因素,根据预后因素构建列线图;ROC曲线、校准曲线和临床决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis,DCA)用于评估模型的区分度、一致性和临床效益;通过计算ROC曲线下面积和DCA,比较列线图与N端脑钠肽前体(N-terminal pro-B-type natriureticpeptide,NT-proBNP)及BIOSTATCHF预测模型的性能。结果训练队列和验证队列中分别有27.2%(343/1259)和25.2%(79/314)患者在1年内死亡。多因素Logistic回归结果显示,年龄、D-二聚体、NT-proBNP、BAR、血管紧张素转化酶抑制剂(angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor,ACEI)/血管紧张素受体阻滞剂(angiotensin receptor blockers,ARB)使用与死亡结局独立关联(P<0.05)。基于以上5个因素构建列线图,列线图展现出良好的区分度(AUC=0.838,P<0.001)、一致性(Hosmer-Lemeshowχ2=4.251,P=0.834)和临床效益。列线图模型与NT-proBNP和欧洲BIOSTAT-CHF预测模型相比预测效能均更佳(0.838 vs 0.703和0.825,P<0.05)。DCA结果提示,列线图相比NT-proBNP、BIOSTAT-CHF预测模型均增加了更多的净获益。结论BAR是老年心力衰竭患者1年内死亡的独立预测因子。包含BAR在内的列线图展现出优异的辨别力和校准能力,为预后评估提供有力支持。展开更多
Background:The patterns of leukemia burden have dramatically changed in recent years.This study aimed to estimate the global trends of leukemiarelated death and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)from 1990 to 2017.M...Background:The patterns of leukemia burden have dramatically changed in recent years.This study aimed to estimate the global trends of leukemiarelated death and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)from 1990 to 2017.Methods:The data was acquired from the latest version of the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study.Estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)were calculated to estimate the trend of age-standardized rate(ASR)of death and DALYs due to leukemia and its main subtypes from 1990 to 2017.Results:Globally,the numbers of death and DALYs due to leukemia were 347.58×10^(3)(95%uncertainty interval[UI]=317.26×10^(3)-364.88×10^(3))and 11975.35×10^(3)(95%UI=10749.15×10^(3)-12793.58×10^(3))in 2017,with a 31.22% and 0.03% increase in absolute numbers from 1990 to 2017,respectively.Both of their ASR showed decreasing trends from 1990 to 2017 with the EAPCs being−1.04(95%confidence interval[CI]=(−1.10-−0.99)and−1.52(95%CI=−1.59-−1.44),respectively.Globally,the most pronounced decreasing trend of death and DALYs occurred in chronic myeloid leukemia with EAPCs of−2.76(95%CI=−2.88-−2.64)and−2.84(95%CI=−2.97-−2.70),respectively,while the trend increased in acute myeloid leukemia.The death and DALYs of leukemia decreased in most areas and countries with high socio-demographic index(SDI)including Bahrain,Finland,and Australia.Conclusions:The disease burden of death and DALYs due to leukemia decreased globally,and for most regions and countries from 1990 to 2017.However,the leukemia burden is still a substantial challenge globally and required adequate and affordable medical resources to improve the survival and quality of life of leukemia patients.展开更多
目的了解2019年中国乙型肝炎的疾病负担情况并对2020—2030年乙型肝炎的疾病负担发展趋势进行预测。方法在2019全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global Burden of Disease 2019,GBD 2019)中下载中国乙型肝炎数据。利用患病率、发病率、死亡率、...目的了解2019年中国乙型肝炎的疾病负担情况并对2020—2030年乙型肝炎的疾病负担发展趋势进行预测。方法在2019全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global Burden of Disease 2019,GBD 2019)中下载中国乙型肝炎数据。利用患病率、发病率、死亡率、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)、早死损失寿命年(years of life lost,YLL)、伤残损失寿命年(years lived with disability,YLD)及年龄标化率等指标描述2019年中国乙型肝炎的疾病负担情况,利用估计年百分比变化(estimated annual percentage change,EAPC)描述中国乙型肝炎疾病负担1990—2019年的变化趋势。采用R4.2.1构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型对2020—2030年中国乙型肝炎总体发病、死亡、DALY和YLD情况进行预测。结果1990—2019年中国乙型肝炎的总体疾病负担呈下降趋势,中国乙型肝炎的总体标化患病率为6566.1/10万、标化发病率为1397.3/10万、标化死亡率为8.1/10万、标化DALY率为247.7/10万、标化YLL率为241.5/10万、标化YLD率为6.2/10万,与1990年相比分别下降2.34%、2.35%、4.92%、5.15%、5.20%、2.71%。女性居民的疾病负担指标均低于同时期的男性居民。乙型肝炎的患病率在20~24岁最高,发病率在25~29岁最高,死亡率随着年龄增长而升高。根据贝叶斯模型预测,2020—2030年中国乙型肝炎发病人数约为1486.56万人,死亡人数约为11.18万人,DALY约为634.9万人年,YLD约为12.1万人年。结论尽管在1990—2019年之间中国乙型肝炎疾病负担呈下降趋势,但在2030年消除乙型肝炎病毒这一公共威胁的目标仍然面临挑战。因此,有必要扩大诊断覆盖范围、减轻患者经济负担,进一步推进健康中国建设。展开更多
目的:分析2021年西藏自治区山南市居民的死亡特征,了解死亡原因及死因顺位,为制定相关防控策略提供依据。方法:利用死亡率、标化死亡率、寿命损失年数(years of life lost,YLL)、早死概率、期望寿命指标,对2021年西藏自治区山南市居民...目的:分析2021年西藏自治区山南市居民的死亡特征,了解死亡原因及死因顺位,为制定相关防控策略提供依据。方法:利用死亡率、标化死亡率、寿命损失年数(years of life lost,YLL)、早死概率、期望寿命指标,对2021年西藏自治区山南市居民的全因死亡数据进行分析。结果:2021年西藏自治区山南市居民的总死亡率为500.3/10万(标化率1060.9/10万);男性死亡率为539.2/10万(标化率1282.5/10万),女性死亡率为462.5/10万(标化率889.5/10万),男性死亡率高于女性;总死亡YLL为35998.8年,男性为20827.0年,女性为15171.8年。居民前5位死因顺位分别是脑血管病、心脏病、恶性肿瘤、呼吸系统疾病、传染病,这5类疾病占报告死亡数的71.7%。慢性非传染性疾病占全死因的68.4%;四大类主要慢病早死概率为17.5%,男性为21.9%,女性为13.5%。山南市居民的期望寿命为75.3岁,男性为72.9岁,女性为77.7岁。结论:西藏自治区山南市居民中四大类主要慢病患者的早死概率高于全国水平,且四大类主要慢病是该市居民的主要死因。降低慢性病患者的过早死亡和YLL是预防和控制慢性病的主要目标。展开更多
基金National Key research and Development Program,No.2022YFE0131600National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.82160500+3 种基金Special Project of Central Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development,No.ZY20198011Guangxi Science and Technology Base and Talent Project,No.GuikeAA21220002Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi,No.2022GXNSFAA035642The Liuzhou Science and Technology Plan Project,No.2021CB0101.
文摘BACKGROUND Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)has become the leading cause of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases(COCLDs).AIM To conduct a comprehensive and comparable updated analysis of the global,regional,and national burden of COCLDs due to NAFLD in 204 countries and territories from 1990 and 2019 by age,sex,and sociodemographic index.METHODS Data on COCLDs due to NAFLD were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study 2019.Numbers and age-standardized prevalence,death,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were estimated through a systematic analysis of modelled data from the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study 2019.The estimated annual percentage change was used to determine the burden trend.RESULTS In 2019,the global age-standardized prevalence rate of COCLDs due to NAFLD was 15022.90 per 100000 population[95%uncertainty interval(UI):13493.19-16764.24],which increased by 24.51%(22.63%to 26.08%)from 1990,with an estimated annual percentage change of 0.78(95%confidence interval:0.74-0.82).In the same year,however,the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized DALYs per 100000 population were 1.66(95%UI:1.20-2.17)and 43.69(95%UI:31.28-58.38),respectively.North Africa and the Middle East had the highest prevalence rates of COCLDs due to NAFLD.The death rate increased with age up to the 95+age group for both sexes.Males had higher numbers of prevalence,death rate,and DALYs than females across all age groups before the 65-69 age group.The sociodemographic index was negatively correlated with the age-standardized DALYs.CONCLUSION Globally,the age-standardized prevalence rate has increased during the past three decades.However,the agestandardized death rate and age-standardized DALYs decreased.There is geographical variation in the burden of COCLDs due to NAFLD.It is strongly recommended to improve the data quality of COCLDs due to NAFLD across all countries and regions to facilitate better monitoring of the burden of COCLDs due to NAFLD.
基金financed in part by the Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brasil(CAPES)-Finance Code 001.
文摘Introduction: Indicators of maternal health are often used to evaluate the social development and overall health of a population, as well as the accessibility of health services. Among these indicators, the Potential Years of Life Lost, which is associated with maternal deaths, is useful for the definition of priorities, monitoring, evaluation, and intervention, identifying the highest risk groups. Objective: To analyze the Potential Years of Life Lost by maternal death in Santa Catarina in 2000 and 2014. Method: An Ecological study with exploratory spatial analysis was conducted with data obtained from the Information System on Mortality and Live Births. Results: In the Information System, 35 maternal deaths in the year 2000 were identified and 24 in 2014. The total estimated years of life lost were 845 years in 2000 and 780 years in 2014, dominated by direct obstetric causes. In 2000, women who died lost, on average, 39.8 years of life;and 41.5 years in 2014. Conclusion: The spatial pattern observed in 2000 highlights areas of high risk in different regions of Santa Catarina. The greatest loss of years occurred in younger women, confirming the need to prevent and control maternal mortality and review strategies for compliance with public policies in the State.
文摘Background:The patterns of leukemia burden have dramatically changed in recent years.This study aimed to estimate the global trends of leukemiarelated death and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)from 1990 to 2017.Methods:The data was acquired from the latest version of the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study.Estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)were calculated to estimate the trend of age-standardized rate(ASR)of death and DALYs due to leukemia and its main subtypes from 1990 to 2017.Results:Globally,the numbers of death and DALYs due to leukemia were 347.58×10^(3)(95%uncertainty interval[UI]=317.26×10^(3)-364.88×10^(3))and 11975.35×10^(3)(95%UI=10749.15×10^(3)-12793.58×10^(3))in 2017,with a 31.22% and 0.03% increase in absolute numbers from 1990 to 2017,respectively.Both of their ASR showed decreasing trends from 1990 to 2017 with the EAPCs being−1.04(95%confidence interval[CI]=(−1.10-−0.99)and−1.52(95%CI=−1.59-−1.44),respectively.Globally,the most pronounced decreasing trend of death and DALYs occurred in chronic myeloid leukemia with EAPCs of−2.76(95%CI=−2.88-−2.64)and−2.84(95%CI=−2.97-−2.70),respectively,while the trend increased in acute myeloid leukemia.The death and DALYs of leukemia decreased in most areas and countries with high socio-demographic index(SDI)including Bahrain,Finland,and Australia.Conclusions:The disease burden of death and DALYs due to leukemia decreased globally,and for most regions and countries from 1990 to 2017.However,the leukemia burden is still a substantial challenge globally and required adequate and affordable medical resources to improve the survival and quality of life of leukemia patients.
文摘目的了解2019年中国乙型肝炎的疾病负担情况并对2020—2030年乙型肝炎的疾病负担发展趋势进行预测。方法在2019全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global Burden of Disease 2019,GBD 2019)中下载中国乙型肝炎数据。利用患病率、发病率、死亡率、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)、早死损失寿命年(years of life lost,YLL)、伤残损失寿命年(years lived with disability,YLD)及年龄标化率等指标描述2019年中国乙型肝炎的疾病负担情况,利用估计年百分比变化(estimated annual percentage change,EAPC)描述中国乙型肝炎疾病负担1990—2019年的变化趋势。采用R4.2.1构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型对2020—2030年中国乙型肝炎总体发病、死亡、DALY和YLD情况进行预测。结果1990—2019年中国乙型肝炎的总体疾病负担呈下降趋势,中国乙型肝炎的总体标化患病率为6566.1/10万、标化发病率为1397.3/10万、标化死亡率为8.1/10万、标化DALY率为247.7/10万、标化YLL率为241.5/10万、标化YLD率为6.2/10万,与1990年相比分别下降2.34%、2.35%、4.92%、5.15%、5.20%、2.71%。女性居民的疾病负担指标均低于同时期的男性居民。乙型肝炎的患病率在20~24岁最高,发病率在25~29岁最高,死亡率随着年龄增长而升高。根据贝叶斯模型预测,2020—2030年中国乙型肝炎发病人数约为1486.56万人,死亡人数约为11.18万人,DALY约为634.9万人年,YLD约为12.1万人年。结论尽管在1990—2019年之间中国乙型肝炎疾病负担呈下降趋势,但在2030年消除乙型肝炎病毒这一公共威胁的目标仍然面临挑战。因此,有必要扩大诊断覆盖范围、减轻患者经济负担,进一步推进健康中国建设。
文摘目的:分析2021年西藏自治区山南市居民的死亡特征,了解死亡原因及死因顺位,为制定相关防控策略提供依据。方法:利用死亡率、标化死亡率、寿命损失年数(years of life lost,YLL)、早死概率、期望寿命指标,对2021年西藏自治区山南市居民的全因死亡数据进行分析。结果:2021年西藏自治区山南市居民的总死亡率为500.3/10万(标化率1060.9/10万);男性死亡率为539.2/10万(标化率1282.5/10万),女性死亡率为462.5/10万(标化率889.5/10万),男性死亡率高于女性;总死亡YLL为35998.8年,男性为20827.0年,女性为15171.8年。居民前5位死因顺位分别是脑血管病、心脏病、恶性肿瘤、呼吸系统疾病、传染病,这5类疾病占报告死亡数的71.7%。慢性非传染性疾病占全死因的68.4%;四大类主要慢病早死概率为17.5%,男性为21.9%,女性为13.5%。山南市居民的期望寿命为75.3岁,男性为72.9岁,女性为77.7岁。结论:西藏自治区山南市居民中四大类主要慢病患者的早死概率高于全国水平,且四大类主要慢病是该市居民的主要死因。降低慢性病患者的过早死亡和YLL是预防和控制慢性病的主要目标。
