Studying the spatiotemporal variation and driving mechanisms of vegetation net primary productivity(NPP)in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration(GPUA)of China is highly important for regional green and low-carbon de...Studying the spatiotemporal variation and driving mechanisms of vegetation net primary productivity(NPP)in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration(GPUA)of China is highly important for regional green and low-carbon development.This study used the Theil-Sen trend analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test,coefficient of variation,Hurst index,and machine learning method(eXtreme Gradient Boosting and SHapley Additive exPlanations(XGBoost-SHAP))to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of NPP in the GPUA from 2001 to 2020 and reveal its response to climate change and human activities.The results found that during 2001-2020,the averageNPP in the GPUA showed a significant upward trend,with an annual growth rate of 10.84 g C/(m^(2)•a).The multi-year average NPP in the GPUA was 484.83 g C/(m^(2)•a),with higher values in the southwestern Qinling Mountains and lower values in the central and northeastern cropland and built-up areas.The average coefficient of variation of NPP in the GPUA was 0.14,indicating a relatively stable state overall,but 72.72%of the study area showed weak anti-persistence,suggesting that NPP in most areas may have declined in the short term.According to XGBoost-SHAP analyses,elevation,land use type and precipitation were identified as the main driving factors of NPP.Appropriate precipitation and higher temperatures promote NPP growth,whereas extreme climates,high population density,and nighttime lighting inhibit NPP.This study has important theoretical and practical significance for achieving regional sustainable development,offers a scientific basis for formulating effective ecological protection and restoration strategies,and promotes green,coordinated,and sustainable development in the GPUA.展开更多
地表蒸散发是陆地水文循环的重要组成部分,分析蒸散量时空变化特征是深入了解干旱区水文过程的基础。由于银川平原缺乏区域尺度实际蒸散量的长期观测,很难得到长时间序列蒸散量的时空变化特征。基于MOD16A3地表蒸散量数据及研究区内气...地表蒸散发是陆地水文循环的重要组成部分,分析蒸散量时空变化特征是深入了解干旱区水文过程的基础。由于银川平原缺乏区域尺度实际蒸散量的长期观测,很难得到长时间序列蒸散量的时空变化特征。基于MOD16A3地表蒸散量数据及研究区内气象站点实测数据,采用Theil Sen Median趋势度分析、MK突变检验及CA-Markov模型等方法,从时间与空间的角度分析20042019年银川平原地表蒸散量的变化特征及影响因素,预测2024年地表蒸散量的发展趋势。研究结果表明:20042019年银川平原蒸散量年际波动总体是增加趋势,MK突变检验结果显示2010年是蒸散量时序数据的突变点;银川平原实际蒸散量与潜在蒸散量空间分布格局、变化趋势均存在明显的差异性,蒸散量在近16年呈增加趋势,潜在蒸散量呈减少趋势,符合干旱区蒸散发互补相关理论。采用CA-Markov模型对2024年银川平原地表蒸散量未来发展趋势进行预测,模拟结果显示在未来5年银川平原蒸散量仍呈增加趋势;蒸散量的时空变化受气候与人类活动的共同影响,蒸散量与气温、降水、日照时数呈正相关,与相对湿度呈负相关,土地利用结构影响年蒸散量的空间格局,呈现出水田>旱田>林地>草地>荒漠的规律。展开更多
基金funded by the Xi'an Social Science Fund(24QL38).
文摘Studying the spatiotemporal variation and driving mechanisms of vegetation net primary productivity(NPP)in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration(GPUA)of China is highly important for regional green and low-carbon development.This study used the Theil-Sen trend analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test,coefficient of variation,Hurst index,and machine learning method(eXtreme Gradient Boosting and SHapley Additive exPlanations(XGBoost-SHAP))to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of NPP in the GPUA from 2001 to 2020 and reveal its response to climate change and human activities.The results found that during 2001-2020,the averageNPP in the GPUA showed a significant upward trend,with an annual growth rate of 10.84 g C/(m^(2)•a).The multi-year average NPP in the GPUA was 484.83 g C/(m^(2)•a),with higher values in the southwestern Qinling Mountains and lower values in the central and northeastern cropland and built-up areas.The average coefficient of variation of NPP in the GPUA was 0.14,indicating a relatively stable state overall,but 72.72%of the study area showed weak anti-persistence,suggesting that NPP in most areas may have declined in the short term.According to XGBoost-SHAP analyses,elevation,land use type and precipitation were identified as the main driving factors of NPP.Appropriate precipitation and higher temperatures promote NPP growth,whereas extreme climates,high population density,and nighttime lighting inhibit NPP.This study has important theoretical and practical significance for achieving regional sustainable development,offers a scientific basis for formulating effective ecological protection and restoration strategies,and promotes green,coordinated,and sustainable development in the GPUA.
文摘地表蒸散发是陆地水文循环的重要组成部分,分析蒸散量时空变化特征是深入了解干旱区水文过程的基础。由于银川平原缺乏区域尺度实际蒸散量的长期观测,很难得到长时间序列蒸散量的时空变化特征。基于MOD16A3地表蒸散量数据及研究区内气象站点实测数据,采用Theil Sen Median趋势度分析、MK突变检验及CA-Markov模型等方法,从时间与空间的角度分析20042019年银川平原地表蒸散量的变化特征及影响因素,预测2024年地表蒸散量的发展趋势。研究结果表明:20042019年银川平原蒸散量年际波动总体是增加趋势,MK突变检验结果显示2010年是蒸散量时序数据的突变点;银川平原实际蒸散量与潜在蒸散量空间分布格局、变化趋势均存在明显的差异性,蒸散量在近16年呈增加趋势,潜在蒸散量呈减少趋势,符合干旱区蒸散发互补相关理论。采用CA-Markov模型对2024年银川平原地表蒸散量未来发展趋势进行预测,模拟结果显示在未来5年银川平原蒸散量仍呈增加趋势;蒸散量的时空变化受气候与人类活动的共同影响,蒸散量与气温、降水、日照时数呈正相关,与相对湿度呈负相关,土地利用结构影响年蒸散量的空间格局,呈现出水田>旱田>林地>草地>荒漠的规律。
