Abrupt Climate Change around 4 ka BP:Role of the Thermohaline Circulation as Indicated by a GCM Experiment

A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridiflcation occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significant reduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow River Valley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by the weakening of the THC.

Response of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Weakening of Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

Various paleoclimate records have shown that the Asian monsoon was punctuated by numerous suborbital time-scale events, and these events were coeval with those that happened in the North Atlantic. This study investigates the Asian summer monsoon responses to the Atlantic Ocean forcing by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the cold North Atlantic and warm South Atlantic induced by the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation （THC） due to the freshwater flux lead to significantly suppressed Asian summer monsoon. The authors analyzed the detailed processes of the Atlantic Ocean forcing on the Asian summer monsoon, and found that the atmospheric teleconnection in the eastern and central North Pacific and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical North Pacific play the most crucial role. Enhanced precipitation in the subtropical North Pacific extends the effects of Atlantic Ocean forcing from the eastern Pacific into the western Pacific, and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean intensifies the circulation and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific and East Asia.

Changes in Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation under Different Atmospheric CO_2 Scenarios in a Climate Model

The changes in the thermohaline circulation （THC） because of the increased CO2 in the atmosphere play an important role in future climate regimes. In this article, a new climate model developed at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the variation in THC strength, the changes of North Atlantic deep-water （NADW） formation, and the regional responses of the THC in the North Atlantic to increasing atmospheric CO2. From 2000 to 2100, under increased CO2 scenarios （B1, AIB, and A2）, the strength of THC decreases by 4 Sv （106 m^3/s）, 5.1 Sv, and 5.2 Sv, respectively, equivalent to a reduction of 20%, 25%, and 25.1% of the present THC strength. The analyses show that the oceanic deep convective activity significantly strengthens in the Greenland-leeland-Norway （GIN） Seas owing to saltier （denser） upper oceans, whereas weakens in the Labrador Sea and in the south of the Denmark Strait region （SDSR） because of surface warming and freshening due to global warming. The saltiness of the GIN Seas is mainly caused by the increase of the saline North Atlantic inflow through the Faro-Bank （FB） Channel. Under the scenario A1B, the deep-water formation rate in the North Atlantic decreases from 16.2 Sv to 12.9 Sv with increasing CO2.

Response of IAP/LASG GOALS Model to the Coupling of Air-Sea Fresh Water Exchange

The process of air—sea fresh water exchange is included successfully in the Global— Ocean—Atmosphere Land—System model developed at the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG). The results of the coupled integration show that the climate drift has been controlled successfully. Analyses on the responses of ocean circulation to the changes of surface fresh water or salinity forcing show that the ocean spin-up stage under flux condition for salinity is the key to the implementation of air-sea fresh water flux coupling. This study also demonstrates that the Modified—Monthly—Flux—Anomaly coupling scheme (MMFA) brought forward by Yu and Zhang (1998) is suitable not only for daily air—sea heat flux coupling but also for daily fresh water flux coupling. Key words Fresh water flux - Air-sea coupling - Thermohaline circulation This work was co-supported by the National Key Project (Grant No.96-908-02-03), the Excellent National Key Laboratory Research Project (Grant No.49823002) and Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) under grant “ Bai Ren Ji Hua? for “Validation of Coupled Climate Models”.

Versions g1.0 and g1.1 of the LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model

The latest two versions of the IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS） model- versions g1.0 and g1.1, are described in this study. Both two versions are fully coupled GCMs without any flux correction, major changes for g1.1 mainly lie in four aspects： （1） advection schemes for tracer in the ocean component model; （2） zonal filter scheme in high latitudes in the ocean component model; （3） coupling scheme for fresh water flux in high latitudes; and （4） an improved algorithm of airsea turbulent flux depending on the surface current of the ocean. As a result, the substantial cold biases in the tropical Pacific and high latitudes are improved by g1.1, especially g1.1 simulates more reasonable equatorial thermocline, poleward heat transport, zonal overturning stream function in the ocean and sea ice distribution than g1.0. Significant ENSO variability are simulated by both versions, however the ENSO behavior by g1.0 differs from the observed one in many aspects： about twice ENSO amplitude as observed, false ENSO asymmetry, only one peak period around 3 years, etc. Due to improved mean climate state by g1.1, many basic characteristics of ENSO are reproduced by g1.1, e.g., more reasonable ENSO amplitude, two peaks of power spectra for ENSO events, and positive SST skewness in the eastern Pacific as observed.

The Role of Southern High Latitude Wind Stress in Global Climate

In this paper, the role of westerly winds at southern high latitudes in global climate is investigated in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. In the model, the wind stress south of 40°S is turned off with ocean and atmosphere fully coupled both locally and elsewhere. The coupled model explicitly demonstrates that a shutdown of southern high latitude wind stress induces a general cooling over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current （ACC） region, with surface Ekman flow and vertical mixing playing competitive roles. This cooling leads to an equatorward expansion of sea ice and triggers an equivalent barotropic response in the atmosphere to accelerate westerly anomalies. The shutdown of southern high latitude wind stress also significantly reduces global meridional overturning circulation （MOC）. The Antarctic MOC （AnMOC） nearly disappears while the Atlantic MOC （AMOC） is weakened by 50%, suggesting a strong control of the southern high latitude winds over the thermohaline circulation （THC）. In spite of a substantial weakening of the AMOC, the interhemispheric SST seesaw appears to be not significant due to an equatorward extension of the southern extratropical cooling through coupled wind-evaporation-SST （WES） feedback. In addition, it is found that the weakening of Atlantic MOC by as much as 50% is capable of cooling the time mean subpolar Atlantic temperature by only about 1°C.

A Two-Dimensional Zonally Averaged Ocean Carbon Cycle Model

An ocean carbon cycle model driven by a constant flow field produced by a two-dimensional thermohaline circulation model is developed. Assuming that the biogenic carbon in the oceans is in a dynamic equilibrium, the inorganic carbon cycle is investigated. Before the oceanic uptake of CO_2 is carried out, the investigation of 14C distributions in the oceans, including natural and bomb-produced 14C,is conducted by using different values of the exchange coefficient of CO_2for different flow fields (different vertical diffusivities) to test the performance of the model. The suitable values of the exchange coefficient and vertical diffusivities are chosen for the carbon cycle model. Under the forcing of given preindustrial atmospheric CO_2 concentration of 280 ppmv, the carbon cycle model is integrated for seven thousand years to reach a steady state. For the human perturbation, two methods including the prescribed atmospheric pCO_2 and prescribed industrial emissions are used in this work. The results from the prescribed atmospheric pCO_2 show that the oceans take up 36% of carbon dioxide released by human activities for the period of 1980-1989, while the results from the prescribed industrial emission rates show that the oceans take up 34% of carbon dioxide emitted by industrial sources for the same period. By using the simple method of subtracting industrial emission rate from the total atmosphere+ocean accumulating rate, it can be deduced that before industrial revolution a non-industrial source exists, while after 1940 an extra sink is needed, and that a total non-industrial source of 45 GtC is obtained for the period of 1790-1990.

Centennial Oscillations in an Ocean-ice Coupled Model

Irregular centennial oscillations, with a spectral peak at 106 years, were obtained from an ocean-ice coupled model for the North Atlantic with realistic coastline and bottom topography. The model's thermohaline circulation is forced by mixed boundary conditions, i.e., a Haney-type relaxation condition for temperature, but an equivalent virtual salt flux condition for salinity. All forcing fields are taken from the observed monthly mean climatological wind stress and buoyancy fluxes. The oscillations appeared in the form of a surface—intensified tripole in both the sea surface temperature and salinity fields located in the vicinity of the Labrador Sea. The oscillations involve a delicate interplay between heat and fresh water advection by meridional overturning circulation, horizontal gyres, vertical convection, and the seasonal cycle. The oscillations are primarily controlled by the salinity component of the circulation; however, sea ice plays a minor role in driving the oscillations observed in the model. On the other hand, a regular seasonal cycle in the forcing fields is an important ingredient for the centennial oscillations.

Earthquakes as a potential contributing factor to climate change at multi-decadal scale

Climate changes at the multi-decadal scale are often associated with multi-decadal phase shifts of the dominant sea surface temperature （SST） pattern, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The PDO may be associated with the North Pacific branch of the Thermohaline Circulation （THC）. Great earthquakes （M 〉8）, particularly along the route of the THC, might modulate the vertical mixing and bring deep, cold water to surface, contributing to multi-decadal changes in surface currents and the PDO. This may eventually lead to multi-decadal climate changes. We tested this hypothesis for the Pacific Ocean where great earthquakes have been frequently recorded. We found associations between the PDO and recurrent earthquakes along the route of the deep currents of the THC in the modern period since 1900, and relationships between hydroclimate change in Monsoonal Asia and historical earthquakes since 1300. However, it should be noted that this hypothesis is very preliminary and has many gaps that needs further evidences from more observational records and modeling studies.

Effects of astronomical orbital cycle and volcanic activity on organic carbon accumulation during Late Ordovician–Early Silurian in the Upper Yangtze area, South China

Based on field outcrop data,the effects of cyclic change of astronomical orbit and volcanic activity on organic carbon accumulation during the Late Ordovician-Early Silurian in the Upper Yangtze area were studied using cyclostratigraphic and geochemical methods.d13 C and chemical index of alteration(CIA)were used to filter the astronomical orbit parameters recorded in sediments.It is found that the climate change driven by orbital cycle controls the fluctuations of sea level at different scales,obliquity forcing climate changes drive thermohaline circulation(THC)of the ocean,and THC-induced bottom currents transport nutrient-laden water from high latitude regions to the surface water of low-latitude area.Hence,THC is the main dynamic mechanism of organic-carbon supply.The marine productivity indexes of Ba/Al and Ni/Al indicate that volcanic activities had limited effect on marine productivity but had great influences on organic carbon preservation efficiency in late Hirnantian(E4).Paleo-ocean redox environmental indicators Th/U,V/Cr and V/(V+Ni)show that there is a significant correlation between volcanism and oxygen content in Paleo-ocean,so it is inferred that volcanisms controlled the organic carbon preservation efficiency by regulating oxygen content in Paleo-ocean,and the difference in volcanism intensity in different areas is an important factor for the differential preservation efficiency of organic carbon.The organic carbon input driven by orbital cycle and the preservation efficiency affected by volcanisms worked together to control the enrichment of organic carbon in the Middle–Upper Yangtze region.