Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate model...Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.展开更多
The old reservoir areas built in 1950s- 1970s left behind many socio-economic problems, because of the administrative backward migration and little migration fund, and all these problems would be tied to land. Based o...The old reservoir areas built in 1950s- 1970s left behind many socio-economic problems, because of the administrative backward migration and little migration fund, and all these problems would be tied to land. Based on interviewing with peasant households, combining land use survey and socio-economic statistical index, this paper analyzed land use change and its corresponding driving forces in Linshui reservoir area of Dahonghe Reservoir. Results showed that land use change in the reservoir area was mainly embodied on low-lying land submergence and migration requisition land. The former changed the land use patterns, and the latter mainly reconstructed original land property and made land over-fragmented. Cultivated land per capita was 0.041ha in this area, below the cordon of cultivated land per capita enacted by FAO. Currently, there were still 30.25% of peasant households being short of grain in trimester of one year, and there were 35.27% of people living under the poverty line. The conditions of eco-environmerit in Linshui Reservoir Area were worse, and healthy and sub-healthy eco-environment accounted for less proportion, composed of green belt around the reservoir area and paddy field ecosystem, and economic forest and orchard ecosystem, respectively. The stress of the reservoir project was macroscopic background to analyze the driving factors of land use change, and real underlying diving factor of the land use change in the area was the change of cultural landscape under the stress of reservoir project. The rapid increase of population was the key factor to induce the change of man-land relationship in the reservoir area, the low level of rural economy was the crucial factor to decide how migrants input for production, and the belief of migrants, influencing the land use patterns in a certain extent, was the inducing factor to keep land use stable. The low-lying submergence and infrastructure construction accompanied the reservoir project were leading factors driving land use change in the area, while changes in land use patterns, after the reservoir being built, were the responses of peasant households＇ behaviors to land use change.展开更多
The Three Gorges Project attracts worldwide attention because of the Three Gorges migrants, and the agriculture of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is a foundation for the development of the Three Gorges migrants. The ...The Three Gorges Project attracts worldwide attention because of the Three Gorges migrants, and the agriculture of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is a foundation for the development of the Three Gorges migrants. The Three Gorges Reservoir Area is situated at the mountainous area with bad agricultural development conditions and relatively low levels of development. As a result, the large-scale migration fias special influence on its agricultural development, which has attracted much attention. The paper analyzes influence that the migrants have forced on its agricultural development based on the scientific data, and makes some explorations on the models that are suitable for the development of mountainous agriculture in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.展开更多
基金funding from the NFR COMBINED (Grant No.328935)The BCPU hosted YZ visit to University of Bergen (Trond Mohn Foundation Grant No.BFS2018TMT01)+2 种基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2023YFA0805101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42376250 and 41731177)a China Scholarship Council fellowship and the UTFORSK Partnership Program (CONNECTED UTF-2016-long-term/10030)。
文摘Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.
基金U nderthe auspices ofthe N ationalN aturalScience Foundation ofC hina (N o.49771073) and K ey ProjectofC hi-nese A cadem y ofSciences(N o.K 2952-J1-203)
文摘The old reservoir areas built in 1950s- 1970s left behind many socio-economic problems, because of the administrative backward migration and little migration fund, and all these problems would be tied to land. Based on interviewing with peasant households, combining land use survey and socio-economic statistical index, this paper analyzed land use change and its corresponding driving forces in Linshui reservoir area of Dahonghe Reservoir. Results showed that land use change in the reservoir area was mainly embodied on low-lying land submergence and migration requisition land. The former changed the land use patterns, and the latter mainly reconstructed original land property and made land over-fragmented. Cultivated land per capita was 0.041ha in this area, below the cordon of cultivated land per capita enacted by FAO. Currently, there were still 30.25% of peasant households being short of grain in trimester of one year, and there were 35.27% of people living under the poverty line. The conditions of eco-environmerit in Linshui Reservoir Area were worse, and healthy and sub-healthy eco-environment accounted for less proportion, composed of green belt around the reservoir area and paddy field ecosystem, and economic forest and orchard ecosystem, respectively. The stress of the reservoir project was macroscopic background to analyze the driving factors of land use change, and real underlying diving factor of the land use change in the area was the change of cultural landscape under the stress of reservoir project. The rapid increase of population was the key factor to induce the change of man-land relationship in the reservoir area, the low level of rural economy was the crucial factor to decide how migrants input for production, and the belief of migrants, influencing the land use patterns in a certain extent, was the inducing factor to keep land use stable. The low-lying submergence and infrastructure construction accompanied the reservoir project were leading factors driving land use change in the area, while changes in land use patterns, after the reservoir being built, were the responses of peasant households＇ behaviors to land use change.
基金the Project of Construction Committee of Three Gorges Reservoir (Grant No. SX[2002]00401)Chinese Academy of Science (Grant No. KZCX2-SW-319-01).
文摘The Three Gorges Project attracts worldwide attention because of the Three Gorges migrants, and the agriculture of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is a foundation for the development of the Three Gorges migrants. The Three Gorges Reservoir Area is situated at the mountainous area with bad agricultural development conditions and relatively low levels of development. As a result, the large-scale migration fias special influence on its agricultural development, which has attracted much attention. The paper analyzes influence that the migrants have forced on its agricultural development based on the scientific data, and makes some explorations on the models that are suitable for the development of mountainous agriculture in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
