The present study examines the impact of short-term public opinion sentiment on the secondary market,with a focus on the potential for such sentiment to cause dramatic stock price fluctuations and increase investment ...The present study examines the impact of short-term public opinion sentiment on the secondary market,with a focus on the potential for such sentiment to cause dramatic stock price fluctuations and increase investment risk.The quantification of investment sentiment indicators and the persistent analysis of their impact has been a complex and significant area of research.In this paper,a structured multi-head attention stock index prediction method based adaptive public opinion sentiment vector is proposed.The proposedmethod utilizes an innovative approach to transform numerous investor comments on social platforms over time into public opinion sentiment vectors expressing complex sentiments.It then analyzes the continuous impact of these vectors on the market through the use of aggregating techniques and public opinion data via a structured multi-head attention mechanism.The experimental results demonstrate that the public opinion sentiment vector can provide more comprehensive feedback on market sentiment than traditional sentiment polarity analysis.Furthermore,the multi-head attention mechanism is shown to improve prediction accuracy through attention convergence on each type of input information separately.Themean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the proposedmethod is 0.463%,a reduction of 0.294% compared to the benchmark attention algorithm.Additionally,the market backtesting results indicate that the return was 24.560%,an improvement of 8.202% compared to the benchmark algorithm.These results suggest that themarket trading strategy based on thismethod has the potential to improve trading profits.展开更多
Capital structure is regarded as the combination of debt and equity firms used to finance operations and investments.The choice of capital structure significantly impacts a company’s cost of capital,profitability,and...Capital structure is regarded as the combination of debt and equity firms used to finance operations and investments.The choice of capital structure significantly impacts a company’s cost of capital,profitability,and risk profile.Among a series of factors that affect capital structure,this paper focuses on stock returns and market timing.In this review,an array of papers is analyzed to summarize what current research claims regarding the influence of stock returns and market timing on capital structure.This paper centers on the stock return and market timing theories and also discusses other theories like the trade-off theory,the pecking order theory,and the signaling theory.展开更多
Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios(δ^(18)O and δ^(13)C) in otoliths were used to identify the stock structure of small yellow croaker,Larimichthys polyactis.Otoliths were collected from fish at five locations ac...Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios(δ^(18)O and δ^(13)C) in otoliths were used to identify the stock structure of small yellow croaker,Larimichthys polyactis.Otoliths were collected from fish at five locations across the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea representing most of their distributional range and fisheries areas.The significant differences in the isotopic signatures showed that the five locations could be chemically distinguished and clearly separated,indicating stock subdivision.Correlation of δ^(18)O and δ^(13)C values suggested that population of L.polyactis could be divided into the Bohai Sea group,the southern Yellow Sea group and the central Yellow Sea group.Discriminant analysis of δ^(18)O and δ^(13)C values demonstrated a high significant difference with 85.7% classification accuracy.The spatial separation of L.polyactis indicated a complex stock structure across the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea.These results indicate that optimal fisheries management may require a comprehensive consideration on the current spatial arrangements.This study has provided further evidence that measurement of the stable isotopes ratios in otolith can be a valuable tool in the delineation of fishery management units.展开更多
We investigate a stage-structured delayed predator-prey model with impulsive stocking on prey and continuous harvesting on predator. According to the fact of biological resource management, we improve the assumption o...We investigate a stage-structured delayed predator-prey model with impulsive stocking on prey and continuous harvesting on predator. According to the fact of biological resource management, we improve the assumption of a predator-prey model with stage structure for predator population that each individual predator has the same ability to capture prey. It is assumed that the immature and mature individuals of the predator population are divided by a fixed age, and immature predator population does not have the ability to attach prey. Sufficient conditions are obtained, which guarantee the global attractivity of predator-extinction periodic solution and the permanence of the system. Our results show that the behavior of impulsive stocking on prey plays an important role for the permanence of the system, and provide tactical basis for the biological resource management. Numerical analysis is presented to illuminate the dynamics of the system.展开更多
Various population structures or spatial heterogeneities in population distribution have been an important source of model misspecification and have had an impact on estimation performance in fisheries stock assessmen...Various population structures or spatial heterogeneities in population distribution have been an important source of model misspecification and have had an impact on estimation performance in fisheries stock assessment.In this study,we simulated the Indian Ocean albacore spatial heterogeneity in age-structure using Stock Synthesis according to the stage-dependent migration rate and region-dependent fishing mortality rate and generated the stock assessment data.Based on these data,we investigated the performances of different spatial configurations,selectivity curves and selections of CPUE(catch per unit effort)indices of the assessment models which were used to account for spatial heterogeneity.The results showed:(1)although the spatially explicit configurations,which exactly matched the operating model,provided unbiased and accurate estimates of relative spawning biomass,relative fishing mortality rate and maximum sustainable yield in all simulation scenarios,their performance may be very poor if there were mismatches between them and the operating model due to gaps in knowledge and data;(2)for spatially explicit assessment configuration,the correct boundary was required,but for non-spatially explicit assessment configuration,it seemed more important for analysts to partition the area to properly reflect the transition in field data and to effectively account for the impacts of ignoring the spatial structure by using the additional spatially referenced parameters;(3)although the areas-as-fleets methods and flexible time-varying selectivity curves could be used as better alternative approaches to account for spatial structure,these configurations could not completely eliminate the impacts of model misspecification and the quality of estimates of different quantities from the same assessment model may be inconsistent or the performance of the same assessment configuration may fluctuate significantly between simulation scenarios;(4)although the worst estimates could generally be avoided by using multiple CPUE indices,there were no best solutions to select or regenerate the CPUE indices to account for the impacts of the ignored spatial structure to obviously improve the quality of stock assessment.Compared with the results of assessment model configurations which are used to account for the spatial structure by different modelers,the performances of the configurations are always casespecific except for spatially explicit configurations which exactly match the operating model.In this sense,our study will not only provide some insights into the current Indian Ocean albacore stock assessment but also enrich existing knowledge regarding the performance of assessment configurations to account for spatial structure.展开更多
Using sector-specific growth accounting method, this paper investigates the growth effect of inter-industry allocation of capital and labor in China. This paper has found that existing investment data are classified a...Using sector-specific growth accounting method, this paper investigates the growth effect of inter-industry allocation of capital and labor in China. This paper has found that existing investment data are classified according to investment entities rather than user entities and directly using such data for the measurement of capital inventory of various sectors will seriously overestimate the capital inventory of tertiary industry and lead to distorted conclusions of "structural burden" of capital allocation and its serious violation of the principle of efficiency. By excluding real estate sector, this paper has found that after the 1990 s, inter-industry capital allocation had been generally consistent with the principle of efficiency and the effect of capital allocation structure is not significant. Our estimates also found that the growth effect arising from the inter-industry allocation of labor since reform and opening up averages 0.63 percentage points, which is significantly positively correlated with residual economic growth rate and residual TFP and demonstrates a decade-long "reform cycle." According to the comparative study on the effect of labor allocation structure of 37 other countries and regions, by 2017, the effect of China's labor allocation structure will continue to remain in a relatively high stage; between 2017 and 2023, structural effect will significantly diminish and deceleration pressure will rise swiftly; after 2030, the effect of labor allocation structure will linger in a low level stage, when economy is likely to enter into a stage of low growth rate. These findings will help us better assess future economic growth tendencies.展开更多
近岸岛屿毗邻海域作为陆架边缘海中最具代表性的区域之一,是重要的海-陆过渡区域。在自然环境变动与人类活动的双重影响下,其生态系统具有多样性和复杂性。长岛毗邻海域具有典型的海岛生态环境特征,为渤黄海渔业种类的洄游通道和关键栖...近岸岛屿毗邻海域作为陆架边缘海中最具代表性的区域之一,是重要的海-陆过渡区域。在自然环境变动与人类活动的双重影响下,其生态系统具有多样性和复杂性。长岛毗邻海域具有典型的海岛生态环境特征,为渤黄海渔业种类的洄游通道和关键栖息地,对该海域生态系统食物网结构和能流过程具有重要意义。2021年3月至12月,山东长岛近海渔业资源国家野外科学观测研究站在长岛毗邻海域开展10航次,每航次10站的底层渔业生物逐月调查与样品测定。通过对渔获物的生物学测定数据进行计算,获得相对重要性指数(index of relative importance,IRI)、物种更替率、单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)以及包含Margalef丰富度指数(D)、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H′)和Pielou均匀度指数(J′)在内的生物多样性指数,构成了本数据集。基于多人全样本交叉复核完成审查与校对过程,确保数据集的规范性与准确性。本数据集可为渤黄海底层渔业生物时空格局和海岛生态系统研究提供数据支撑。展开更多
The effect of COVID-19 on stock market performance has important implications for both financial theory and practice.This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 and the instability of both stock return predi...The effect of COVID-19 on stock market performance has important implications for both financial theory and practice.This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 and the instability of both stock return predictability and price volatility in the U.S over the period January 1st,2019 to June 30th,2020 by using the methodologies of Bai and Perron(Econometrica 66:47–78,1998.https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540;J Appl Econo 18:1–22,2003.https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659),Elliot and Muller(Optimal testing general breaking processes in linear time series models.University of California at San Diego Economic Working Paper,2004),and Xu(J Econ 173:126–142,2013.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecon om.2012.11.001).The results highlight a single break in return predictability and price volatility of both S&P 500 and DJIA.The timing of the break is consistent with the COVID-19 outbreak,or more specifically the stock sellingoffs by the U.S.senate committee members before COVID-19 crashed the market.Furthermore,return predictability and price volatility significantly increased following the derived break.The findings suggest that the pandemic crisis was associated with market inefficiency,creating profitable opportunities for traders and speculators.Furthermore,it also induced income and wealth inequality between market participants with plenty of liquidity at hand and those short of funds.展开更多
基金funded by the Major Humanities and Social Sciences Research Projects in Zhejiang higher education institutions,grant number 2023QN082,awarded to Cheng ZhaoThe National Natural Science Foundation of China also provided funding,grant number 61902349,awarded to Cheng Zhao.
文摘The present study examines the impact of short-term public opinion sentiment on the secondary market,with a focus on the potential for such sentiment to cause dramatic stock price fluctuations and increase investment risk.The quantification of investment sentiment indicators and the persistent analysis of their impact has been a complex and significant area of research.In this paper,a structured multi-head attention stock index prediction method based adaptive public opinion sentiment vector is proposed.The proposedmethod utilizes an innovative approach to transform numerous investor comments on social platforms over time into public opinion sentiment vectors expressing complex sentiments.It then analyzes the continuous impact of these vectors on the market through the use of aggregating techniques and public opinion data via a structured multi-head attention mechanism.The experimental results demonstrate that the public opinion sentiment vector can provide more comprehensive feedback on market sentiment than traditional sentiment polarity analysis.Furthermore,the multi-head attention mechanism is shown to improve prediction accuracy through attention convergence on each type of input information separately.Themean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the proposedmethod is 0.463%,a reduction of 0.294% compared to the benchmark attention algorithm.Additionally,the market backtesting results indicate that the return was 24.560%,an improvement of 8.202% compared to the benchmark algorithm.These results suggest that themarket trading strategy based on thismethod has the potential to improve trading profits.
文摘Capital structure is regarded as the combination of debt and equity firms used to finance operations and investments.The choice of capital structure significantly impacts a company’s cost of capital,profitability,and risk profile.Among a series of factors that affect capital structure,this paper focuses on stock returns and market timing.In this review,an array of papers is analyzed to summarize what current research claims regarding the influence of stock returns and market timing on capital structure.This paper centers on the stock return and market timing theories and also discusses other theories like the trade-off theory,the pecking order theory,and the signaling theory.
基金The National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China under contract Nos 2015CB453300 and 2010CB428900
文摘Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios(δ^(18)O and δ^(13)C) in otoliths were used to identify the stock structure of small yellow croaker,Larimichthys polyactis.Otoliths were collected from fish at five locations across the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea representing most of their distributional range and fisheries areas.The significant differences in the isotopic signatures showed that the five locations could be chemically distinguished and clearly separated,indicating stock subdivision.Correlation of δ^(18)O and δ^(13)C values suggested that population of L.polyactis could be divided into the Bohai Sea group,the southern Yellow Sea group and the central Yellow Sea group.Discriminant analysis of δ^(18)O and δ^(13)C values demonstrated a high significant difference with 85.7% classification accuracy.The spatial separation of L.polyactis indicated a complex stock structure across the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea.These results indicate that optimal fisheries management may require a comprehensive consideration on the current spatial arrangements.This study has provided further evidence that measurement of the stable isotopes ratios in otolith can be a valuable tool in the delineation of fishery management units.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.10771179)the Emphasis Subject of Guizhou Province of China
文摘We investigate a stage-structured delayed predator-prey model with impulsive stocking on prey and continuous harvesting on predator. According to the fact of biological resource management, we improve the assumption of a predator-prey model with stage structure for predator population that each individual predator has the same ability to capture prey. It is assumed that the immature and mature individuals of the predator population are divided by a fixed age, and immature predator population does not have the ability to attach prey. Sufficient conditions are obtained, which guarantee the global attractivity of predator-extinction periodic solution and the permanence of the system. Our results show that the behavior of impulsive stocking on prey plays an important role for the permanence of the system, and provide tactical basis for the biological resource management. Numerical analysis is presented to illuminate the dynamics of the system.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2016YFC1400903the NSFC Zhejiang Joint Fund for the Integration of Industrialization and Informatization under contract No.U1609202
文摘Various population structures or spatial heterogeneities in population distribution have been an important source of model misspecification and have had an impact on estimation performance in fisheries stock assessment.In this study,we simulated the Indian Ocean albacore spatial heterogeneity in age-structure using Stock Synthesis according to the stage-dependent migration rate and region-dependent fishing mortality rate and generated the stock assessment data.Based on these data,we investigated the performances of different spatial configurations,selectivity curves and selections of CPUE(catch per unit effort)indices of the assessment models which were used to account for spatial heterogeneity.The results showed:(1)although the spatially explicit configurations,which exactly matched the operating model,provided unbiased and accurate estimates of relative spawning biomass,relative fishing mortality rate and maximum sustainable yield in all simulation scenarios,their performance may be very poor if there were mismatches between them and the operating model due to gaps in knowledge and data;(2)for spatially explicit assessment configuration,the correct boundary was required,but for non-spatially explicit assessment configuration,it seemed more important for analysts to partition the area to properly reflect the transition in field data and to effectively account for the impacts of ignoring the spatial structure by using the additional spatially referenced parameters;(3)although the areas-as-fleets methods and flexible time-varying selectivity curves could be used as better alternative approaches to account for spatial structure,these configurations could not completely eliminate the impacts of model misspecification and the quality of estimates of different quantities from the same assessment model may be inconsistent or the performance of the same assessment configuration may fluctuate significantly between simulation scenarios;(4)although the worst estimates could generally be avoided by using multiple CPUE indices,there were no best solutions to select or regenerate the CPUE indices to account for the impacts of the ignored spatial structure to obviously improve the quality of stock assessment.Compared with the results of assessment model configurations which are used to account for the spatial structure by different modelers,the performances of the configurations are always casespecific except for spatially explicit configurations which exactly match the operating model.In this sense,our study will not only provide some insights into the current Indian Ocean albacore stock assessment but also enrich existing knowledge regarding the performance of assessment configurations to account for spatial structure.
基金Major public tendering project of the National Social Sciences Fund--Study on Accelerating Economic Restructuring and Promoting Coordinated Economic Development(Grant No.12&ZD084)Project of the National Social Sciences Fund--Study on the Pattern,Evolutionary Mechanism and Sustainable Development of China's Urbanization(Grant No.12AJL009)
文摘Using sector-specific growth accounting method, this paper investigates the growth effect of inter-industry allocation of capital and labor in China. This paper has found that existing investment data are classified according to investment entities rather than user entities and directly using such data for the measurement of capital inventory of various sectors will seriously overestimate the capital inventory of tertiary industry and lead to distorted conclusions of "structural burden" of capital allocation and its serious violation of the principle of efficiency. By excluding real estate sector, this paper has found that after the 1990 s, inter-industry capital allocation had been generally consistent with the principle of efficiency and the effect of capital allocation structure is not significant. Our estimates also found that the growth effect arising from the inter-industry allocation of labor since reform and opening up averages 0.63 percentage points, which is significantly positively correlated with residual economic growth rate and residual TFP and demonstrates a decade-long "reform cycle." According to the comparative study on the effect of labor allocation structure of 37 other countries and regions, by 2017, the effect of China's labor allocation structure will continue to remain in a relatively high stage; between 2017 and 2023, structural effect will significantly diminish and deceleration pressure will rise swiftly; after 2030, the effect of labor allocation structure will linger in a low level stage, when economy is likely to enter into a stage of low growth rate. These findings will help us better assess future economic growth tendencies.
文摘近岸岛屿毗邻海域作为陆架边缘海中最具代表性的区域之一,是重要的海-陆过渡区域。在自然环境变动与人类活动的双重影响下,其生态系统具有多样性和复杂性。长岛毗邻海域具有典型的海岛生态环境特征,为渤黄海渔业种类的洄游通道和关键栖息地,对该海域生态系统食物网结构和能流过程具有重要意义。2021年3月至12月,山东长岛近海渔业资源国家野外科学观测研究站在长岛毗邻海域开展10航次,每航次10站的底层渔业生物逐月调查与样品测定。通过对渔获物的生物学测定数据进行计算,获得相对重要性指数(index of relative importance,IRI)、物种更替率、单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)以及包含Margalef丰富度指数(D)、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H′)和Pielou均匀度指数(J′)在内的生物多样性指数,构成了本数据集。基于多人全样本交叉复核完成审查与校对过程,确保数据集的规范性与准确性。本数据集可为渤黄海底层渔业生物时空格局和海岛生态系统研究提供数据支撑。
基金This research was supported by the Social Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province(Grant No:20YJ09)the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No:17ZDA037).
文摘The effect of COVID-19 on stock market performance has important implications for both financial theory and practice.This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 and the instability of both stock return predictability and price volatility in the U.S over the period January 1st,2019 to June 30th,2020 by using the methodologies of Bai and Perron(Econometrica 66:47–78,1998.https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540;J Appl Econo 18:1–22,2003.https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659),Elliot and Muller(Optimal testing general breaking processes in linear time series models.University of California at San Diego Economic Working Paper,2004),and Xu(J Econ 173:126–142,2013.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecon om.2012.11.001).The results highlight a single break in return predictability and price volatility of both S&P 500 and DJIA.The timing of the break is consistent with the COVID-19 outbreak,or more specifically the stock sellingoffs by the U.S.senate committee members before COVID-19 crashed the market.Furthermore,return predictability and price volatility significantly increased following the derived break.The findings suggest that the pandemic crisis was associated with market inefficiency,creating profitable opportunities for traders and speculators.Furthermore,it also induced income and wealth inequality between market participants with plenty of liquidity at hand and those short of funds.