Factors affecting farmers'choice to adopt risk management strategies:The application of multivariate and multinomial probit models

This study investigates the factors that impact farmers'adoption of risk management strategies(RMS)in Pakistan during times of uncertainty.The study examines farmers'adoption of RMS using both multinomial probit(MNP)and multivariate probit(MVP).Data were collected from 382 farmers sampled from four districts in KhyberPakhtunkhwa(KP)province of Pakistan via a multistage sampling technique.This study utilizes the MNP model,considering the assumption of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives(IIA)and incorporating correlated error terms.The objective is to understand farmers'behavior in risky situations and determine if there is heterogeneity.Results are compared with the MVP model to assess robustness and gain deeper understanding of farmers'decisionmaking processes.The research findings reveal that our results are robust,and farmers behave homogeneously in various RMS scenarios.Farmers adopt RMS individually or in combination to mitigate the adverse effects of natural calamities on their livelihood.The risk-averse farmers,who perceive weather-related risks as a threat,access credits and information,and have farms close to a river are more likely to adopt RMS,irrespective of the format of the strategies available.Moreover,the predicted probabilities and correlation of the RMS and RM categories have strengthened our model estimation.These findings provide insights into the behavior of farmers in adopting RMS which are helpful for policymakers and stakeholders in developing strategies to mitigate the impacts of natural calamities on farmers.

Effects of three-dimensional quality assessment nursing intervention on efficacy and disease management of patients undergoing esophageal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND Esophageal cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors.The three-dimensional quality structure model is a quality assessment theory that includes three dimensions:Structure,process,and results.AIM To investigate the effects of nursing interventions with three-dimensional quality assessment on the efficacy and disease management ability of patients undergoing esophageal cancer surgery.METHODS In this prospective study,the control group received routine nursing,and the intervention group additionally received a three-dimensional quality assessment intervention based on the above routine care.Self-efficacy and patient disease management abilities were evaluated using the General Self-Efficacy Scale(GSES)and Exercise of Self-Care Agency scale,respectively.IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows,version 17.0,was used for the data processing.RESULTS This study recruited 112 patients who were assigned to the control and experi-mental groups(n=56 per group).Before the intervention,there was no significant difference in GSES scores between the two groups(P>0.05).After the inter-vention,the GSES scores of both groups increased,with the experimental group showing higher values(P<0.05).At the time of discharge and three months after discharge,the scores for positive attitudes,self-stress reduction,and total score of health promotion in the experimental group were higher than those in the control group(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The implementation of a three-dimensional quality structure model for postoperative patients with esophageal cancer can effectively improve their self-management ability and self-efficacy of postoperative patients.

Application of Hazard Vulnerability Analysis Based on Kaiser Model in Neonatal Breast Milk Management

Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-feeding of breast milk.Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model was applied to investigate and evaluate the risk events.Results:High-risk events include breast milk quality inspection,hand hygiene during collection,disinfection of collectors,cold chain management,hand hygiene during the reception,breast milk closed-loop management,and post-collection disposal.Root cause analysis of high-risk events was conducted and breast milk management strategies outside the hospital and within the neonatal department were proposed.Conclusion:Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model can identify and assess neonatal breast milk management risks effectively,which helps improve the management of neonatal breast milk.It is conducive to the safe development and promotion of bottle feeding of breast milk for neonates,ensuring the quality of medical services and the safety of children.

Application of oblique photogrammetry technique in geological hazard identification and decision management

With the continuous development of the oblique photography technique, it has been used more and more widely in the field of geological disasters. It can quickly obtain the three-dimensional(3D) real scene model of dangerous mountainous areas under the premise of ensuring the safety of personnel while restoring the real geographic information as much as possible. However, geological disaster areas are often accompanied by many adverse factors such as cliffs and dense vegetation. Based on this, the paper introduced the flight line design of oblique photogrammetry, analyzed the multi-platform data fusion processing, studied the multi-period data dynamic evaluation technology and proposed the application methods of data acquisition, early warning, disaster assessment and decision management suitable for geological disaster identification through the analysis of actual cases, which will help geologists to plan and control geological work more scientifically and rationally, improve work efficiency and reduce the potential personnel safety hazards in the process of geological survey, to offer technical support to the application of oblique photogrammetry in geological disaster identification and decision making and provide the scientific basis for personal and property safety protection and later-stage geological disaster management in disaster areas.

Online payment fraud:from anomaly detection to risk management

Online banking fraud occurs whenever a criminal can seize accounts and transfer funds from an individual’s online bank account.Successfully preventing this requires the detection of as many fraudsters as possible,without producing too many false alarms.This is a challenge for machine learning owing to the extremely imbalanced data and complexity of fraud.In addition,classical machine learning methods must be extended,minimizing expected financial losses.Finally,fraud can only be combated systematically and economically if the risks and costs in payment channels are known.We define three models that overcome these challenges:machine learning-based fraud detection,economic optimization of machine learning results,and a risk model to predict the risk of fraud while considering countermeasures.The models were tested utilizing real data.Our machine learning model alone reduces the expected and unexpected losses in the three aggregated payment channels by 15%compared to a benchmark consisting of static if-then rules.Optimizing the machine-learning model further reduces the expected losses by 52%.These results hold with a low false positive rate of 0.4%.Thus,the risk framework of the three models is viable from a business and risk perspective.

Risk Assessment of Coal Mine Water Hazard Based on Three-Dimensional Model of Geology and Underground Space

Mine safety have top-five disasters,which including the water,gas,fire,dust and geological dynamic disaster.The coal mine water disaster is one of the important factors which restricted the development of China’s coal production.It is showed by statistics that 60%of mine accidents are affected by groundwater,which not only result in the production losses,casualties and a variety of

Fuzzy-Neuro Model for Intelligent Credit Risk Management

This paper presents hybrid fuzzy logic and neural network algorithm to solve credit risk management problem. Credit risk is the risk of loss due to a debtor’s non-payment of a loan or other line of credit. A method of evaluating the credit worthiness of a customer is complex and non-linear due to the diverse combinations of risk involve. To address this problem a credit scoring method is proposed in this paper using hybrid fuzzy logic-neural network (HFNN) model. The model will be implemented, tested, and validated for individual auto loans using real life bank data. The neural network is used as the learner and the fuzzy logic is used as the implementer. The neural network will fine tune the fuzzy sets, remove redundant input variables, and extract fuzzy rules. The extracted fuzzy rules are evaluated to retain the best k number of rules that will give final and intelligent decisions. The experiment results show that the perform-ance of the proposed HFNN model is very accurate, robust, and reliable. Comparison of these results to other previous published works is also presented in this paper.

Evolution of seismic risk management for insurance over the past 30 years

During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing ＂Insur Tech＂ tools to address the much needed ＂Insurance for the Masses＂, especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists.This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the ＂at risk＂ property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow ＂Insurance for the Masses - IFM＂, the role played by parametric insurance products and Insur Tech tools will be discussed.

Risk Management： A New Project Management Perspective

Risk management in Botswana has been very ineffective at assisting projects to be on time, on budget, and meeting client＇s/buyer＇s expectations. Traditional risk management attempts to manage, control, and direct a project through various phases, from planning and design, through procurement, and to construction. However, the risk management in Botswana seems to be either not implemented or not successful. The project performance in Botswana has a poor performance record. The researchers are attempting to identify why the traditional project/risk management is not working. In analyzing the problem in Botswana, the researchers discovered that the traditional risk management model was theoretically unsound, and designed a new project and risk model, with an entirely different approach to risk. The new model is an outgrowth of the highly successful Performance Information Procurement System （PIPS） and the Information Measurement Theory （IMT）/Kashiwagi Solution Model （KSM） concepts. The approach has been presented to some Botswana clients and academics and has received a favorable response. The development of the new risk model will lead to a huge change in the paradigm for delivering projects in Botswana. The theoretical development of the new risk model is ongoing at the University of Botswana as a part of a doctoral dissertation.

A Proposed Method for Evaluating Management Feasibility When Determining Weed Control Priorities after Major Fires and Floods

Major fires and floods have enormous impacts on natural ecosystems and are predicted to increase in frequency with global warming.Land managers need to make decisions on the prioritisation of weeds for control in post-disturbance landscapes,but little is available in the way of guidance to support timely decision making.Semi-quantitative models(e.g.,scoring systems)have been employed routinely in weed risk assessment,which considers the potential impacts posed by weeds,as well as the likelihood of these impacts being realised.Some progress has been made in the development of similar models addressing the topic of weed risk management.Under conditions prevailing after major disturbances,changes(both positive and negative)can be expected in the multiple factors that determine weed management feasibility,relative to pre-disturbance conditions.A semi-quantitative model is proposed that is based on the key factors that contribute to weed management feasibility in post-disturbance environments,along with annotated modules that could be used by land managers in both post-fire and post-flood situations.The fundamental challenge for weed management in these scenarios lies in the identification of differences between weeds and native species in relation to(1)patterns of seedling emergence;and(2)detectability relative to the growth stage.These two factors will determine the timing of control actions that are designed to address the trade-off between weed control and off-target damage during the period when both types of plants are recovering from a major disturbance event.The model is intuitively sound,but field testing is required to determine both its practical value and any necessary improvement.

Reliability Study on the Risk Precontrol Management System of Coal Mines Safety

Risk precontrol management system of coal mines safety( RPMSCS) provides a set of preventive safety management strategy for high-risk coal industries, which has captured extensive attentions. Fundamentally,there are several membership systems with subsystems in the management system, and the subsystem reliability has an important influence on the management system performance. Through analyzing the structure characteristics of the management system,the phase type distribution was employed to analyze its subsystem reliability by considering repair process and three states including working,fail-abnormal,and fail-emergency states. The reliability indices of the subsystem were derived respectively,including the probabilities that the subsystem in three states,mean time to the first failure, mean time to first failemergency,mean working time to first fail-emergency,and mean maintenance time to the first fail-emergency, are derived respectively. The probabilities of the membership systems and the management system in three states were also derived. Some numerical examples were used to show the procedures. The result is important for better understanding the management system operation and improving its operational performance from the respect of system reliability.

HV Process Model of Software Development

Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) is one of the major ingredients for the development of efficient software systems within a time frame and low-cost involvement. From the literature, it is evident that there are various kinds of process models that are used by the software industries for the development of small, medium and long-term software projects, but many of them do not cover risk management. It is quite obvious that the improper selection of the software development process model leads to failure of the software products as it is time bound activity. In the present work, a new software development process model is proposed which covers the risks at any stage of the development of the software product. The model is named a Hemant-Vipin (HV) process model and may be helpful for the software industries for development of the efficient software products and timely delivery at the end of the client. The efficiency of the HV process model is observed by considering various kinds of factors like requirement clarity, user feedback, change agility, predictability, risk identification, practical implementation, customer satisfaction, incremental development, use of ready-made components, quick design, resource organization and many more and found through a case study that the presented approach covers many of parameters in comparison of the existing process models. .

The 3D simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems based on eco-environmental water demand

Through the study of mutual process between groundwater systems and eco-environmental water demand, the eco-environmental water demand is brought into groundwater systems model as the important water consumption item and unification of groundwater抯 economic, environmental and ecological functions were taken into account. Based on eco-environmental water demand at Da抋n in Jilin province, a three-dimensional simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems was established. All water balance components of groundwater systems in 1998 and 1999 were simulated with this model and the best optimal exploitation scheme of groundwater systems in 2000 was determined, so that groundwater resource was efficiently utilized and good economic, ecologic and social benefits were obtained.

The Risk Management of Companies From Timis County Involved in International Business

Rapid internationalization of economic activities following the Second World War has generated an unprecedented increase in international trade and capital flows. For example, only during 1963-1993, exports rose from 157 billion to 3.774 billion dollars. Also the flows of foreign direct investment （FDI） have grown exponentially. Although FDI flows are concentrated on developing countries, 80% being targeted towards 10 countries, capital flows towards the Third World have quadrupled only between 1990 and 1993. This trend towards a truly international economy influences also on how companies do business. International business environment provides many opportunities, as well as threats. Romanian companies need to align to this trend. In addition to identifying new opportunities to do business in foreign markets, they have to deal with specific risks, which they did not have to face when working internally. In this context, we consider necessary to launch an investigation, whose main objective would be analyzing the manner in which Romanian companies manage risks specific to international economic affairs. As the complexity of these businesses is great, and the majority of Romanian companies, in their attempt to internationalize, use classical forms of export-import, the analysis took into account only the export activity undertaken by Romanian companies. We mention that we did not take into account the determination of the exposure to these risks of the companies concerned, but an analysis of the management of those risks. For this analysis, data were collected based on the administration of a questionnaire, and these data were used to develop an econometric model analysis. The specific methods of risk analysis of specific export transactions are then interpreted using the GLOBE model.

Common Management Process Model of New TQM Based on the Situation Analysis

In the previous study, we suggested the concept of new TQM based on the consideration of basic concept of Quality Control. Also, in the previous study, we suggested the target domains and entities of product and process based on the TQM Matrix and view point of Three Dimensional Unification Value Models for managing quality of organization systems. Furthermore, in the previous study, we suggest the Common Management Process of organizations. Based on the above suggestion, in this paper, we would like to propose the Common Management Process Model of Total Quality Management based on the consideration of situation analysis and more precise definition of TQM Matrix and Three Dimensional Unification Value Model of “Product and Process”. Improvement of quality and efficiency of organization management can be expected by the integration of conventional different management such as quality assurance, quality improvement, risk management, investment individually from the view point of common management process.

Impacts of Chinese Translators’Risk Management Ability on Translation Project Outcomes:A Study Based on Structural Equation Model

Translation project outcomes are affected by many factors.Hence,this study explored the impact of risk management ability of translators on translation project outcomes in China.In the study,we took risk management ability of translators in translation projects as the research objective and collected research data through an online questionnaire to establish a structural equation model.Based on these data in the model,we analyzed impacts of translators’risk management ability on translation project outcomes.Evidently,risks in project planning during translation as well as proofreading and typesetting after translation affect the delivery and remuneration of translation.The study can help translators correctly recognize and manage the risks in translation practices,increase the success rate of translation projects and further promote the sound development of language services.

Highly Thermo-Conductive Three-Dimensional Graphene Aqueous Medium

Highly thermo-conductive aqueous medium is a crucial premise to demonstrate high-performance thermal-related applications.Graphene has the diamond comparable thermal conductivity,while the intrinsic two-dimensional reality will result in strong anisotropic thermal conductivity and wrinkles or even crumples that significantly sacrifices its inherent properties in practical applications.One strategy to overcome this is to use three-dimensional(3D)architecture of graphene.Herein,3D graphene structure with covalent-bonding nanofins(3D-GS-CBF)is proposed,which is then used as the filler to demonstrate effective aqueous medium.The thermal conductivity and thermal conductivity enhancement efficiency of 3D-GS-CBF(0.26 vol%)aqueous medium can be as high as 2.61 W m-1 K-1 and 1300%,respectively,around six times larger than highest value of the existed aqueous mediums.Meanwhile,3D-GS-CBF can be stable in the solution even after 6 months,addressing the instability issues of conventional graphene networks.A multiscale modeling including non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations and heat conduction model is applied to interpret experimental results.3D-GS-CBF aqueous medium can largely improve the solar vapor evaporation rate(by 1.5 times)that are even comparable to the interfacial heating system;meanwhile,its cooling performance is also superior to commercial coolant in thermal management applications.

Research on Financing Game Model of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises based on Different Risk Categories

With the development of market economy and the deepening of economic system reform, some of the Small and medium-sized（SME） enterprises have become the most dynamic economic growth point in the national economy. Nevertheless, SMEs are facing a lot of problems in the market competition, such as technical backwardness, information lag, lack of talents, etc.. The healthy development of SMEs is very important, whereas, SMEs’ financing is a worldwide problem, and the result of financing game between banks and enterprises depends on a variety of decision-making factors. In this paper, from the point of view of bank, we analyze the diffi culties of external financing of SMEs, and establish a financing game model based on different risk categories, in order to better solve the problems that remain in the process of financing and promote the healthy and sustainable development of SMEs.