Radar Echo and Lightning Characteristics Analysis on A Strong Thunderstorm Weather in Fuxin

Based on the radar data and lightning position indicator data of strong thunderstorm weather which happened in Fuxin on July 8,2007,the relationship between the lightning activity and the radar echo was analyzed.The results showed that Fuxin area located in the cross position of T-shaped trough and was affected by the cold air which continuously glided down.The corresponding warm front on the ground advanced southward and arrived here.It was the weather background of this thunderstorm weather.The position variation of lightning occurrence was closely related to the strong echo movement of squall line,and the velocity echo clearly reflected and predicted the movement tendency of the radar echo.

Cause Analysis on the Missing Report of First Thunderstorm Weather in Shenyang City in 2010

The first thunderstorm weather appeared in southern Shenyang on May 2,2010 and did not bring about severe lightning disaster for Shenyang region,but forecast service had poor effect without forecasting thunderstorm weather accurately.In our paper,the reasons for missing report of this thunderstorm weather were analyzed,and analysis on thunderstorm potential was carried out by means of mesoscale analysis technique,providing technical index and vantage point for the prediction of thunderstorm potential.The results showed that the reasons for missing report of this weather process were as follows:surface temperature at prophase was constantly lower going against the development of convective weather;the interpreting and analyzing ability of numerical forecast product should be improved;the forecast result of T639 model was better than that of Japanese numerical forecast;the study and application of mesoscale analysis technique should be strengthened,and this service was formally developed after thunderstorm weather on June 1,2010.

Analysis on Features of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Thunderstorm in Shanghai

Based in 11 daily weather observation station data in Shanghai from 1971 to 2008,a careful research and analysis on the features of thunderstorms spatial and temporal distribution and thunderstorm movement in Shanghai was carried out by using the statistical software of SAS,the method of Mann-Kendall test and wavelets. The results showed that the average annual numbers of thunderstorms days were 26.1,and inter-annual thunderstorm variability was obvious,the annual number of thunderstorm days had a decreasing trend,its value of decreasing days was about-0.418 5 d/10 a. Mann-Kendall test showed that there was an abrupt change in 2000. The seasonal variation of thunderstorm in Shanghai was explicit. The period from March to September was the season when thunderstorm occurred most frequently,about 64.9% of the thunderstorms in a year took place in summer. The results from wavelets analysis showed that the variation cycle period of the annual number of thunderstorms days was about 3,5,12 and 20 years.

Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Thunderstorms in 46 Years in Henan Province

By dint of natural orthogonal function(EOF) decomposition,correlation and trend analysis methods,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of thunderstorms in recent 46 years in Henan Province were analyzed.The result showed that the thunderstorms in Henan Province decreased gradually from the northwest region to the southeast region and the frequency of thunderstorms in the southeast area was relatively high.The thunderstorm intensity area was in its horizontal distribution.Thunderstorms acted relative actively in 60s and tended to dwindle in the end of 80s.While in recent years,the thunderstorms tended to increase and started act frequently.Since March to August in every year,thunderstorms multiplied in each region and decreased after September.The period between 16:00 to 20:00 was the high peak hours of thunderstorms every year.Thunderstorms distribution in Henan Province had pretty good consistence,increasing and decreasing at the same time.The annual variation of thunderstorms showed an unobvious decreasing tendency.

Charge Structure of a Summer Thunderstorm in North China:Simulation Using a Regional Atmospheric Model System

Electrification and simple discharge schemes are coupled into a 3D Regional Atmospheric Model System （RAMS） as microphysical parameterizations, in accordance with electrical experiment results. The dynamics, microphysics, and electrifi- cation components are fully integrated into the RAMS model, and the inductive and non-inductive electrification mechanisms are considered in the charging process. The results indicate that the thunderstorm mainly had a normal tripole charge structure. The simulated charge structure and lightning frequency are basically consistent with observations of the lightning radiation source distribution. The non-inductive charging mechanism contributed to the electrification during the whole lifetime of the thunderstorm, while the inductive electrification mechanism played a significant role in the development period and the mature stage when the electric field reached a large value. The charge structure in the convective region and the rearward region are analyzed, showing that the charge density in the convective region was double that in the rearward region.

Case Studies of Sprite-producing and Non-sprite-producing Summer Thunderstorms

Three summer thunderstorms in the eastern region of China were analyzed in detail using multiple data, including Doppler radar, lightning location network, TRMM （Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission）, MT- SAT （Multi-Function Transport Satellite） images, NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） Reanalysis, and radiosonde. Two of the three storms were sprite-producing and the other was non-sprite- producing. The two sprite-producing storms occurred on 1 2 August and 2~28 July 2007, producing 16 and one sprite, respectively. The non-sprite-producing storm occurred on 29-30 July 2007. The major ob- jective of the study was to try to find possible differences between sprite-producing and non-sprite producing storms using the multiple datasets. The results showed that the convection in the 1-2 August storm was the strongest compared with the other storms, and it produced the largest number of sprites. Precipitation ice, cloud ice and cloud water content in the convective regions in the 1-2 August storm were larger than in the other two storms, but the opposite was true in the weak convective regions. The storm microphysical prop- erties along lines through parent CG （cloud-to-ground lightning） locations showed no special characteristics related to sprites. The flash rate evolution in the 1-2 August storm provided additional confirmation that major sprite activity coincides with a rapid decrease in the negative CG flash rate. However, the evolution curve of the CG flash rate was erratic in the sprite-producing storm on 27-28 July, which was significantly different from that in the 1 2 August storm. The average positive CG peak current in sprite-producing storms was larger than that in the non-sprite-producing one.

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WITH LS-SVM METHOD

The LS-SVM(Least squares support vector machine) method is presented to set up a model to forecast the occurrence of thunderstorms in the Nanjing area by combining NCEP FNL Operational Global Analysis data on 1.0°×1.0° grids and cloud-to-ground lightning data observed with a lightning location system in Jiangsu province during 2007-2008.A dataset with 642 samples,including 195 thunderstorm samples and 447 non-thunderstorm samples,are randomly divided into two groups,one(having 386 samples) for modeling and the rest for independent verification.The predictors are atmospheric instability parameters which can be obtained from the NCEP data and the predictand is the occurrence of thunderstorms observed by the lightning location system.Preliminary applications to the independent samples for a 6-hour forecast of thunderstorm events show that the prediction correction rate of this model is 78.26%,false alarm rate is 21.74%,and forecasting technical score is 0.61,all better than those from either linear regression or artificial neural network.

Statistical Analysis of Thunderstorms on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau Based on Modified Thunderstorm Indices

The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational forecasting to assess the stability of the atmosphere and predict the probability of severe thunderstorm development. One of the disadvantages of many of these indices is that they are mainly based on observations from plains. However, considering the Plateau＇s high elevation, most convective parameters cannot be applied directly, or their application is ineffective. The pre-convective environment on thunderstorm days in this region is investigated based on sounding data obtained throughout a five-year period（2006–10）.Thunderstorms occur over the Tibetan Plateau under conditions that differ strikingly from those in plains. On this basis,stability indices, such as the Showalter index（including SI and SICCL）, and the K index are improved to better assess the thunderstorm environments on the Plateau. Verification parameters, such as the true-skill statistic（TSS） and Heidke skill score（HSS）, are adopted to evaluate the optimal thresholds and relative forecast skill for each modified index. Lastly, the modified indices are verified with a two-year independent dataset（2011–12）, showing satisfactory results for the modified indices. For determining whether or not a thunderstorm day is likely to occur, we recommend the modified SICCLindex.

Observations of NO_2 and O_3 during Thunderstorm Activity Using Visible Spectroscopy

Simultaneous observations for the total column densities of NO2,O3 and H2O were carried on using the portable Spectrometer (438-450 nm and 400-450 nm) and the visible Spectrometer (544.4-628 nm) during premonsoon thunderstorms and embedded hail storm activity at Pune (18°32'N & 73°51'E),India.These observations confirm the fact that there is an increase in O3 and NO2 column densities during thunderstorms.The increase in O3 was observed following onset of thunderstorm,while the increase in NO2 was observed only after the thunder flashes occur.This implies that the production mechanisms for O3 and NO2 in thunderstorm are different.The observed column density of NO,value (1 to 3×1017molecules cm-2) during thunderstorm activity is 10 to 30 times higher than the value (1×10th molecules cm-2) of a normal day total column density.The spectrometric observations and observations of thunder flashes by electric field meter showed that 6.4×1025molecules/flash of NO2 are produced.The increased to-oil column density of ozone during thunderstorm period is 1.2 times higher than normal (clear) day ozone concentration.The multiple scattering in the clouds is estimated from H2O and O2 absorption bands in the visible spectral region Considering this effect the calculated amount of ozone added in the global atmosphere due to thunderstorm activity is 0.26 to 0 52 DU,and the annual production of ozone due to thunderstorm activity is of the order of 4.02×10 molecules/year The annual NO2 production may be of the order of 2.02×1035molecules/year.

Analysis on the Climate Characteristics of Thunderstorm in Fujian Province during 1960-2007

[Objective] The research aimed to study the activity characteristics and climate rule of thunderstorm in Fujian Province.[Method] Based on the daily thunderstorm data in 67 meteorological stations of Fujian Province during 1960-2007,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of thunderstorm in Fujian Province were analyzed by using the climate tendency rate,the trend coefficient and so on.[Result] The distribution of thunderstorm days showed the northeast-southwest direction and increased gradually from the coast to the inland in Fujian Province during 1960-2007.The high value zone was in Longyan,and the thunderstorm days in the coastal islands were the fewest.The thunderstorm days had the obvious decrease trend in Fujian Province in 48 years.The decrease speeds in the central coastal area and most of inland mountain area were 3.5 and 4.5 d/10 a.The decrease speed was 5.5 d/10 a in the north of Ningde,the east of Sanming and some areas in Nanping.The trend coefficient variation of thunderstorm days had the obvious regional characteristic.Especially the decrease trend in the inland mountain area was more obvious than that in the coast.The decrease of thunderstorm day trend coefficient in the north of Nanping was the most,and the trend coefficient was-0.65.But the decrease trend in the central coastal area wasn’t obvious,and the coefficient was only-0.15.The thunderstorm day had the obvious seasonal variation.The multi-occurrence period of thunderstorm was during March-september and reached the maximum value in August.Started from September,the thunderstorm quickly decreased.From October to February in next year,the thunderstorm happened seldom.The average first thunderstorm date in the northwest area was earlier than that in the southeast area.The difference of average final thunderstorm date in the north and south areas wasn’t big.For the first thunderstorm date in the north and west of Fujian was early,and the final thunderstorm date was later,the thunderstorm activity time in the whole year was longer than that in the coast.They differed by nearly one month.[Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the climate feasibility demonstration of major project items,provided the theory basis about the weather climate aspect for the thunder prevention and disaster reduction,and also laid the foundation for further studying the formation mechanism of thunderstorm in Fujian.

A Probe for Consistency in CAPE and CINE During the Prevalence of Severe Thunderstorms:Statistical – Fuzzy Coupled Approach

Thunderstorms of pre-monsoon season (April – May) over Kolkata (22° 32’N, 88° 20’E), India are invariably accompanied with lightning flashes, high wind gusts, torrential rainfall, occasional hail and tornadoes which significantly affect the life and property on the ground and aviation aloft. The societal and economic impact due to such storms made accurate prediction of the weather phenomenon a serious concern for the meteorologists of India. The initiation of such storms requires sufficient moisture in lower troposphere, high surface temperature, conditional instability and a source of lift to initiate the convection. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is a measure of the energy realized when conditional instability is released. It plays an important role in meso-scale convective systems. Convective inhibition energy (CINE) on the other hand acts as a possible barrier to the release of convection even in the presence of high value of CAPE. The main idea of the present study is to see whether a consistent quantitative range of CAPE and CINE can be identified for the prevalence of such thunderstorms that may aid in operational forecast. A statistical – fuzzy coupled method is implemented for the purpose. The result reveals that a definite range of CINE within 0 – 150 Jkg-1 is reasonably pertinent whereas no such range of CAPE depicts any consistency for the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Kolkata. The measure of CINE mainly depends upon the altitude of the level of free convection (LFC), surface temperature (T) and surface mixing ratio (q). The box-and-whisker plot of LFC, T and q are drawn to select the most dependable parameter for the consistency of CINE in the prevalence of such thunderstorms. The skills of the parameters are evaluated through skill score analyses. The percentage error during validation with the observation of 2010 is estimated to be 0% for the range of CINE and 3.9% for CAPE.

Characteristics of thunderstorms and lightning flashes in the Chinese inland plateau

The electrical characteristics of thunderstorms in three different altitude regions of the Chinese inland plateau have been analyzed in this paper. The results show, according to the polarity of the surface electric （E） field, that the thunderstorms can be divided into two categories in the study regions： one showing the normal tripole electrical charge structure （normal-type）, and the other showing the special tripole charge structure with a larger-than-usual lower positive charge center （LPCC） at the base of thunderstorm （special-type）, where the induced surface E field is controlled by the LPCC when a thunderstorm is overhead. We find that the two types of thunderstorms have different occurrences in different regions, and the percentage of special-type thunderstorms increases with the altitude. On the whole, the flash rate of thunderstorms is quite low, and the mean value is about 1-3 fl/min, while the flash rate of special-type is slightly greater than that of the normal-type thunderstorm. The statistical results of cloud-to-ground flash （CG） numbers indicate that the ratio of ＋CG flash increases with the altitude, with the value about 14.7 percent through 25.4 percent.

On Thunderstorm Microphysics under Urban Heat Island, Sea Breeze, and Cold Front Effects in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, Brazil

This work discusses issues related to the impact of urbanization on the microphysical processes of precipitating systems associated with synoptic, mesoscale, and local scale systems. Among the issues addressed is the impact of urban heat island (UHI) in São Paulo city center and urban densification (UD) in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) on the microphysical, dynamic, and thermodynamic properties and distribution of precipitation and heavier rainfall from sea-breeze (SB) e cold-front (CF) combined during their space-time evolutions. For this purpose, it used four components: classification of hydrometeors with fuzzy logic, calculation of the raindrop diameters, an estimate of liquid water mass and ice mass from polarimetric-variables measured with dual-pola- rization X-band meteorological radar. The results indicated that urban densification (UD) and heat island (UHI) of the São Paulo city center impact the formation of precipitation, liquid water mass, and ice mass, depth, and duration of a thunderstorm. It was also observed the asymmetric configuration of the thunderstorm is induced by the strong convergence in the São Paulo city center, and this strong convergence is induced by the intense heat island (UHI) in the São Paulo city center. Was also observed that this event that is formed in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) depends on microphysical processes of mixed-phase of the cloud (water and ice) above the 0°C isotherm for the production of intense rain and cold pool at the surface. These important microphysical processes within long-lasting secondary convective cells over the São Paulo city center should be taken into account on convective parameterization schemes as well as the associated cold pool dynamics.

我国大气电学研究的最新进展

大气电学主要研究地球大气和近地空间发生的电学过程及其机理和影响,其核心研究内容是雷电物理和雷暴电学。自1980年代以来,中国大气电学研究不断取得新的进展,特别是近年来,得益于高时间分辨率雷电探测技术的进步,大气电学研究不仅在雷电物理学和雷暴云电荷结构方面取得了重要成果,也在雷电和雷暴对近地空间的影响、强对流天气的雷电特征、以及雷电资料同化和预警预报等方面取得了重要进展。本文从六个方面对近五年来大气电学的主要研究进展进行回顾,包括高精度雷电探测和定位技术、雷电物理过程和机制、雷暴对中上层大气的影响、雷暴云电荷结构的观测和数值模拟、强对流天气的雷电特征与预报、雷电对气候变化的影响与响应等,最后对大气电学未来发展进行展望。

Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulations of the Effects of a Cold Water Surface on the Evolution and Propagation of Thunderstorms

The influences of large areas of semi-unbounded cold water surface on the evolution, propagation and precipitation production of thunderstorms are simulated by using a fully elastic three-dimensional numerical hailstorm model. Real sounding profiles for temperature, humidity and wind are employed. The model has successfully simulated the significant modification of the propagation path of thunderstorms near the cold water area. The path change can be either' along-bank' or' toward-bank', depending on the position of the storm system relative to convergence zone of the water-land circulation. The simulations also show that thunderstorms developing or propagating within the convergence zone of local circulation will be intensified and produce much heavier hail, whereas those over cold water surface or the air that has been cooled by the water will be strongly inhibited.The influence of the cold water surface on thunderstorm characters is largely dependent upon the direction and intensity of the low-level wind.

Analysis of a Mesoscale Thunderstorm Process in Shanghai on June 23, 2013

Based on conventional data from automatic stations in Shanghai City,data of temperature of black body(TBB) obtained by Japan MTSAT satellite,Doppler radar data of Nantong,and 1.0°× 1.0° NCEP reanalysis data,the development characteristics and triggering mechanisms of a mesoscale thunderstorm process in Shanghai on June 23,2013 were analyzed. The results show that the thunderstorm process was triggered by flow fields at high and low altitudes and the transport of sufficient water vapor at low altitudes.

Analysis of Lightning Disaster of Eight Mobile Base Stations in a County Suffering Thunderstorm on June 23,2015 and Countermeasures

During the process of thunderstorm in a county on June 23,2015,eight mobile base stations in the region were damaged.The reasons for the damage caused by the thunderstorm were discussed through on-the-spot investigation,and some countermeasures were proposed.

Study on Occurrence Rule, Reason and Defense Measures of the Thunderstorm in Liaocheng in the Past 50 Years

[ Objective] The research aimed to study occurrence rule, reason and defense measures of the thunderstorm in Liaocheng in the past 50 years. [Method] By using meteorological observation records at 8 observatories of Uaocheng during 1963 -2012, occurrence rule of the thunderstorm was studied. Occurrence reason and defense measures were also analyzed. [ Result] Annual thunderstorm days presented decreasing trend in Liaocheng. The earliest thunderstorm occurred in February, while the latest thunderstorm occurred in November. Thunderstorm mainly appeared in June, July and August, which occupied 77.6% of that in whole year. Thunderstorm days among each county had small difference. Thunderstorm days in Dong＇e County reached the minimum, which was related to local underlying surface. Occurrence reason of the thunderstorm was analyzed from objective and subjective aspects. By combining the actual situation of Liaocheng, corresponding prevention countermeasures were put forward. [Conclusion] The research could provide reference basis for thunderstorm disaster prevention and reduction in Liaocheng.

Study on the Distribution Characteristics of Thunderstorms in Xuzhou City

[Objective] The study aimed to discuss the distribution characteristics of thunderstorms in Xuzhou City. [Method] Based on thunder- storm observation data during 1978 -2008 provided by Jiuli Mountain station, beginning and ending months, days, duration, frequency, hours and direction of thunderstorms in Xuzhou were analyzed. [ Result] From 1978 to 2008, there were obvious annual variations in thunderstorm days in Xuzhou City. Thunderstorm days were more in July and August compared with other months, while there were no thunderstorms in January and De- comber. Thunderstorms began earliest in February and ended latest in November, with a long span. The longest duration of thunderstorms reached 259 d, accounting for 71% of total days of a year. The maximum frequency of thunderstorms （64） appeared in 1995, and the maximum hours of thunderstorms （4 048 h） appeared in 2003. Thunderstorms occurred most frequently in the southwest, followed by SE and NW. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the prevention and control of lightning strokes in Xuzhou in future.

Analysis on Climatic Characteristics of Thunderstorms in Doumen District of Zhuhai City during Recent 46 Years

Based on daily data of thunderstorms during 1967 -2012 from the national meteorological station in Doumen District of Zhuhai City, the climatic characteristics of thunderstorms in Doumen District were analyzed using climate tendency rate, sliding t test, trend analysis and experience frequency, The results showed that annual thunderstorm days in Doumen District showed a decreasing trend in recent 46 years; thunderstorms appeared in the whole year; monthly thunderstorm days had two peaks; thunderstorms occurred frequently in summer, especially in August, while thunderstorm days were the least in winter; annual thunderstorm days in Doumen District declined sharply in 1984; most thunderstorms began from middle February to late March and ended from late September to middle November; thunderstorms in Doumen District lasted for a long term, and there was a great change in thunderstorm duration in different years.