Seismic hazard analysis of Tianjin area based on strong ground motion prediction

Taking Tianjin as an example, this paper proposed a methodology and process for evaluating near-fault strong ground motions from future earthquakes to mitigate earthquake damage for the metropolitan area and important engineering structures. The result of strong ground motion was predicted for Tianjin main faults by the hybrid method which mainly con- sists of 3D finite difference method and stochastic Green＇s function. Simulation is performed for 3D structures of Tianjin re- gion and characterized asperity models. The characterized asperity model describing source heterogeneity is introduced fol- lowing the fault information from the project of Tianjin Active Faults and Seismic Hazard Assessment. We simulated the worst case that two earthquakes separately occur. The results indicate that the fault position, rupture process and the sedi- mentary deposits of the basin significantly affect amplification of the simulated ground motion. Our results also demonstrate the possibility of practical simulating wave propagation including basin induced surface waves in broad frequency-band, for seismic hazard analysis near the fault from future earthquakes in urbanized areas.

Palaeoceanological significance of Holocene ostracean banks in Tianjin area

On the basis of the study of ostracean banks in Tianjin area, the present study recognized that the ostracean banks at Ninghe County in Tianjin area are well developed along the west coast of the Bohai Sea; they consist of thanato-coenose and taphocoenose from Crassistrea gigars and C. revularis. From the 14C datings it can be known that the banks had formed from early Middle-Holocene and continued up to over 2 ka BP (14C age). The top has different reliefs . Although there is an effect of spatial shift of estuary position, the top is only distributed in the range of-0. 50--2. 50 m(Huanghai elevation minus National elevation system). The banks cannot explain the sea-level fluctuation. As the string ostracean banks are distributed near E-W direction, it suggests that the direction of tidal currents was then similar to that of the present day.

Study on Winter Operation Process of the Surface Flow Constructed Wetland in Tianjin Area

[Objective] The research aimed to study winter operation process of the surface flow constructed wetland in ＂rianjin area. [Method] In view of climate characteristics in Tianjin, by the way of running under the ice, winter operation experiment of the surface flow constructed wetland in Tianjin was conducted, with the expectation to get some useful process parameters to run such systems in North China in winter. [ Result] Although purification effect of the sewage by surface flow constructed wetland in winter was worse than that in other seasons （ average reduction of about 20%）, surface flow constructed wetland running under the ice was feasible in Tianjin area. When surface flow constructed wetland in North China ran under ice in winter, it was suggested that the outlet must be located in a low position to prevent to be completely frozen, and running water depth should not be less than 50 -60 cm. The hydraulic load could be raised on the basis of reflux, and hydraulic retention time should maintain less than 4 d to keep water-soil interface not freezing. Inlet water depth should be increased as much as possible to improve temperature in the system. V Conclusion1 The research could provide reference for promotion and application of the surface flow constructed wetland in North China.

Study on the Spatial Pattern Changes of Land Use Based on Fractal Dimensions in Tianjin New Coastal Area

[Objective] The aim was to discuss the spatial pattern changes of land use in Tianjin new coastal area based on fractal dimensions.[Method] By dint of remote and geographic information system technology to obtain the data of urban land use in new coastal area from 1993 to 2008,the boundary dimension,radius dimension and information dimension of each land use type were calculated based on fractal dimension.In addition,the revealed land use spatial dimension changes characteristics were analyzed.[Result] The spatial distribution of each land use type in new costal area had distinct fractal characteristics.And,the amount and changes of three types of dimension values effectively revealed the changes of complicatedness,centeredness and evenness of spatial pattern of land use in the study area.The boundary dimension of unused land and salty earth increased incessantly,which suggested its increasing complicatedness.The boundary of the port and wharf and shoal land was getting simpler.The radius dimension of the cultivated land was larger than 2,which suggested that its area spread from center to the surroundings;the one in salty land and waters distributed evenly within different radius space to the center of the city;the one in other land use types reduced gradually from center to the surroundings.The information dimension value in the woodland and orchard land,unused land and shoal land was small,and was in obvious concentrated distribution;the spatial distribution of cultivated and salty land concentrated in the outside area;the construction area in the port and wharf spread gradually on the basis of original state;the spatial distribution of waters and residents and mines were even.[Conclusion] Applying fractal dimensions to the study of spatial pattern changes of urban land use can make up for some disadvantages in classical urban spatial pattern quantitative research,which has favorable practical value.

TEDA(Tianjin Economic-technological Development Area)——A General Survey, Experience and the Plan for Future Development.

Since its establishment about ten years ago, TEDA has taken advantage of eachopportune time created by China’s policy of opening wider and wider to the outsideworld and the rapid economic growth to deepen its reform and extend its exploitation,and thus has maintained a favorable momentum and an extraordinary high speed foreconomic development. With the total economic output of the whole area raised to

System Development for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment Based on WebG IS for Tianjin Binhai New Area

It is imperative to develop a risk assessment system for quickly predicting storm surge disaster due to the vulnerability of Tianjin Binhai New Area. The flood routing model with user-defined breaches was firstly estab- lished based on the seed spread algorithm in order to achieve a rapid forecasting of storm surge flood information. Furthermore, fuzzy mathematics was utilized to identify the storm disaster grade, and the hazard mapping was con- ducted to visually obtain the hazard spatial and temporal distribution. Finally, the flood routing visuaUzation method was proposed based on numerical simulation of storm surge to achieve the reappearance scene of dynamic evolution process. The developed system can play a vital role in the management and decision-making of sea dyke mitigation engineering in Tianjin Binhai New Area.

Preliminary Analysis of Sea Use Planning Strategies in Coastal Cities:A Case Study of Binhai New Area in Tianjin City

Through investigating current sea use in coastal cities of China,and exploring foreign and domestic researches on sea use,this paper took Binhai New Area of Tianjin City for example to analyze major problems of its sea use in ecological security,planar form,land use layout,specialized planning,management and regulatory mechanism,then proposed strategies from 4 perspectives,namely ecological conservation and restoration,optimization of planning planar form,optimization of planning land use layout,and planning management,in order to provide references and instructions for the sea use planning of Chinese coastal cities.

The Research of Impact of Returning Cultivated Land to Forests in Poverty Areas around Beijing-Tianjin on Local Economy——A Case of Shunping County in Hebei Province, China

Taking Shunping County of Hebei Province as an example,according to the relevant survey data in the year 2008 after returning cultivated land and data in the year 2001 before returning cultivated land, the thesis analyzes the impact of implementation of project of returning cultivated land to forests on local land use structure, three industrial added value and famers' per capita income. The results show that returning cultivated land has played a certain positive role on the local economic development and the improvement of people's life level.However, there are also some shortcomings: although famers' income is increasing with low growth rate, a large portion of famers still have not shaken off poverty; the farmers depends on subsidies greatly and the compensation mechanism of returning cultivated land is not considered well. China should further perfect the ecological compensation plan, and build rational ecological compensation mechanism in order to make the areas of returning cultivated land have self-blood-producing function; Shunping County should make full use of the location advantage in areas around Beijing-Tianjin, develop deep processing based on fruit trees industry, strengthen farmers' skill training, and increase input in the agricultural infrastructure construction to propel the sustainable development of agriculture.

DEVELOPING BOHAI SEA ZONE AND TIANJIN INTO A METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE EAST ASIAN & ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC BELT

Compared with the stagnanteconomy of the rest world,Asian-Pa-cific economy has been experiencingthe hightest growth since the 1980s.Now,most researchers and officials,and even entrepreneurs believe

Research on Dynamic Parameters of Soil Site in the Tianjin Coastal Area

The Tianjin coastal area is a typical soft soil region,where the soil is a marine deposit of the late Quaternary.The soil dynamic parameters from seismic risk assessment reports are collected,and drilling of 15 holes was carried out to sample the soils and measure their dynamic characteristics.The data was divided into 7 types based on lithology,namely,muddy clay,muddy silty clay,silt,silty clay,clay,silty sand and fine sand.Statistics of the dynamic parameters of these soils are collected to obtain the mean values of dynamic shear modulus ratio and damping ratio at different depths.Then,two typical drill holes are selected to establish the soil dynamic models to investigate the seismic response in different cases.The dynamic seismic responses of soil are calculated using the statistical values of this paper,and the values of Code(1994) and those recommended by Yuan Xiaoming et al.(2000),respectively.The applicability and pertinence of the statistical value obtained in this paper are demonstrated by the response spectrum shape,peak ground acceleration and response spectral characteristics.The results can be taken as a reference of the soil dynamic value in this area and can be used in the seismic risk assessment of engineering projects.

Research on the Relationship between Shallow Shear Wave Velocity and Basement Structure in the Tianjin Coastal Area

Shear wave velocity is one of the important dynamic characteristics of soil layers and applied widely in aseismic engineering. In this paper, 500 drill logging data are used to make a linear interpolation based on 0. 01° x 0. 01°x lm grid. A shallow 3-D shear wave velocity structure of Tianjin coastal area is obtained. According to the data and geological background, we selected two typical velocity profiles to try to introduce and explain its relationship to basement structure. The results show that the shear wave velocity structure clearly presents the characteristic of stratification and lateral inhomogeneity. Furthermore, the difference of the shear wave structure between tectonic elements is clear and the velocity structure between the two sides of the local or border fault in the Quaternary is disturbed or affected significantly. It intuitively shows that the basement structure and fault activity of this region had good control of sedimentation development and strata formation in the Quaternary period which would have an important effect on engineering seismic and geological condition evaluation.

A study on the innovation of regional environmental management mechanism in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei area within the background of ecological civilization

Within the background of the need to promote the construction of ecological civilization and the current confl ict between the economic growth and the constraints of environment and resources, after a review of the theoretical study and practical exploration of ecological civilization, the article makes an analysis of the status quo of ecological civilization development in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei area, sums up the main problems there, and explores the development strategic framework to improve the regional ecological environment. It comes to the following conclusions: as the ecological and environmental problems in the BTH area are mainly the air pollution and so on, we should seek to build a mechanism of environmental management for sustainable development from the different aspects of industrial distribution, energy utilization, institution construction and market participation. We should capitalize on the chance to construct the ecological civilization, promote to change the regional economic growth pattern, improve the quality and effi ciency of development, and fi nally promote the synergetic development of ecological environment in the BTH area.

Geothermal Resources Potential Analyses of Tanggu Urban Area and the Vicinity,Tianjin

In order to construct a newly developed green area, the Tanggu urban area as the core part of Binhai new area,needs more and more clean energy year by year. This area is abound in geothermal resources endowed by the grand Nature.Based on the estimation of

天津滨海地热田北部深部地热资源赋存规律

【研究目的】天津地热资源丰富,目前已开发的深部地热资源大部分位于“隆中凸”构造区域,而位于“坳中凸”构造区域的地热资源勘查和研究程度基本尚属空白,揭示其深部地热赋存规律可为滨海新区及京津冀地区寻找深部地热资源及勘探与开发提供重要参考。【研究方法】本文以黄骅坳陷宁河凸起中的桥沽地区为研究区,以近期新发现的资源禀赋最好的蓟县系雾迷山组热储层为研究对象,通过分析区域地质资料、大地电磁测深(MT)、钻孔测温和物探测井等资料,系统总结了研究区地质构造、地温场和深部地热资源赋存特征。【研究结果】雾迷山组储层的热储温度高(90~120℃),出水量大于100 m^(3)/h,埋藏相对较浅(2200~2800 m)。区内地质构造条件复杂,断裂构造发育,汉沽断裂为研究区重要的导热、导水通道;地温场呈现“两高夹一低”展布特征与两处背斜构造空间位置相对应;热源以壳源热为主、幔源热次之,大气降水为主要热水来源,热传输机制以热传导型为主。【结论】综合研究区深部地热赋存规律,建立了深部地热资源概念模型,明确了“坳中凸”深部地热找矿新思路。

京津冀协同发展十周年回顾与展望

京津冀协同发展战略实施十周年,在疏解北京非首都功能方面推动形成了“一核两翼”发展新格局,在交通、生态环保、产业三大领域实现了率先突破,在教育、医疗、养老等公共服务均等化方面取得了令人瞩目的成效,在体制机制改革创新方面迈出了坚实的步伐。在高质量发展新阶段,努力成为中国式现代化建设的先行区、示范区已成为京津冀协同发展新的目标,因此,京津冀还须克服诸多短板和不足,以创新发展为动力,在加快形成“新质生产力”上走在全国前列;以协调发展为主线,在打造世界级城市群方面发挥示范带动作用;以绿色发展为导向,在建设生态修复环境改善示范区上实现新突破;以开放发展为助力,在打造改革开放引领区方面发挥先行先试作用;以共享发展为目的,在推进区域共同富裕方面打造全国样板。

基于随机森林算法的天津市滨海地区地面沉降模拟

地面沉降的监测与预测,对于保障城市安全和社会可持续发展具有重要意义和现实价值。利用随机森林机器学习模型预测了天津市滨海地区的地面沉降量空间分布,并评估了模型的性能和变量的重要性。基于2020年天津市滨海新区局部地区的地面沉降量、含水层岩性、含水组水位差、水文地质参数等数据来训练和验证随机森林模型。结果表明:随机森林模型能够较好地拟合和预测地面沉降量(R^(2)=0.98,RMSE=0.52 mm);影响地面沉降量最重要的因素是水位差,其次是含水层的岩性(砂-黏比值),最后是相关水文地质参数。上述结果与传统上太沙基原理基本吻合,进一步验证了模型的正确性和可预测性。本研究采用了空间分布数据来训练随机森林模型;根据物理机制,选取了重要控制因素来开展分析;评估了控制因素的重要性程度,并指出了研究的局限性和未来的研究方向,为利用随机森林模型快速有效预测地面沉降提供了重要参考和启示。

雄安新区缩小与北京公共服务差距的理论逻辑与实现路径

雄安新区缩小与北京公共服务差距,是有序疏解北京非首都功能的重要前提和京津冀协同发展的本质要求,在推进共同富裕、区域协调、高质量发展和中国式现代化的理论和实践创新中发挥着引领带动作用。七年来,雄安新区坚持以人民为中心推进基本公共服务均等化,在教育、医疗、社保、就业、住房等重点领域率先取得突破。然而由于经济发展阶段不同,雄安新区与北京公共服务差距依然较大,存在资源分布不均衡、北京功能疏解有阻力、雄安自身供给能力不足、共建共享机制不健全等难题。建议正确处理政府与市场关系,从优化公共服务资源布局、完善承接配套政策体系、创新公共服务供给方式、推进公共服务共建共享等几个方面着手,率先推进基本公共服务均等化,动态扩大普惠性非基本公共服务供给,不断满足人民群众日益多元化的公共服务需求。

京津冀建设中国式现代化先行区、示范区的理论逻辑与路径选择

基于建设中国式现代化先行区、示范区的战略使命,回顾了京津冀协同发展的演进历程及阶段特征,识别了京津冀协同发展的新要求;依托区域经济发展机制分析了京津冀协同发展面临的经济社会环境变化,结合京津冀创新实践构建了“疏建结合的要素投入”“内涵集约的要素组合”“地方品质导向的要素聚集”“多节点网络化的要素布局”“深化协同的要素治理”五个方面的京津冀协同发展理论框架。在此基础上,从根植国家经济社会发展宏观背景、立足区域发展现实基础、遵循区域经济发展规律出发,围绕着经济发展、协同开放、空间布局、政府治理、共同富裕和生态改善提出了京津冀建设中国式现代化先行区、示范区的路径构想。

我国本土气温指数期货产品的研发设计——源于京津冀“首都经济圈”核心功能区的气温数据

我国幅员辽阔,对天气变化非常敏感,迫切需要对天气风险进行有效管理,以消除或减少天气风险对各行业的不利影响。从产品研发设计视角出发,以京津冀“首都经济圈”核心功能区为例,参考国外成熟产品,对我国本土气温指数期货产品进行合约设计和模拟定价,根据行业需求阐述产品的应用价值,提出产品在天气风险管理中的显著作用。研究贡献有,搭建起我国本土气温指数期货产品的研发体系;基于国外成熟市场规则构建出符合我国国情的气温指数期货产品标准化合约框架;运用ARMA模型构建出精确度高的气温预测模型;采用蒙特卡罗模拟法制定出气温指数期货两款产品价格;明确产品的应用推广需求和风险管理作用。