The impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei,China

Bulletins of China's National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km^2 is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km^2, 4000 km^2, 5300 km^2 and 7200 km^2, respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.

Empirical Study on Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Regional Economic Growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product(GDP),industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008,this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method.The results show that:1) In the 21st century,the industrial output of three industries,namely,primary,secondary,and tertiary,and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period.The tertiary industry grew the fastest;it had the largest contribution to the GDP and mean-while had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region.2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced.Firstly,compared with Tianjin,Beijing,as one of the two core cities,was more rational in the industrial structure.Secondly,the surrounding eight cities,which are Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,Langfang,Baoding,Cangzhou,Zhangjiakou,and Chengde,were all uncompetitive than the two core cities.3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region(especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan,Baoding,Zhangjia-kou,Chengde,Cangzhou,and Langfang).As a result,it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development,and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.

Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption

In order to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and to explore the pathways to developing a low-carbon economy,this paper begins with the terminal energy consumption of three industries and residential consumption,and constructs an identical equation which is composed of population size,level of economic development,energy intensity,the proportion of energy consumption,energy structure,and the coefficient of carbon emissions.Based on the data of terminal energy consumption during 2000-2012,various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI).The results show that the levels of population and economy have a positive driving effect while energy intensity,energy structure,and carbon intensity have a negative driving effect;the proportion of energy consumption had a negative driving effect prior to 2006,then changed to positive.Among suggestions for a low-carbon economy are controlling population size,improving the quality of economic development,supporting research into new energy technology,accelerating regional integration and optimizing industrial structure,and enhancing environmental protection and spreading the concept of a low-carbon economy.

The spatial-temporal differentiation of green land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

As the space carrier of the construction of ecological civilization, land's green and efficient utilization is an important guarantee for realizing national sustainable development. Based on traditional land evaluation, this paper scientifically defines the green land use, puts land as one of the production factors, and brings energy consumption, environmental pollution, etc. into the input-output system to measure the green land utilization efficiency of the urban construction land of Beijing-TianjinHebei Urban Agglomeration from 2006 to 2016. The study shows that the overall efficiency variation of the urban agglomeration is related with the land and environment policies. Efficiency of 2016 is higher than that of 2006, and energy and environment are the principal factors affecting the green land use. The efficiency of each city is positively correlated with its economic development, negatively correlated with the construction land expansion. Efficiency gaps in different cities are expanding.There is positive correlation with overall weak space between cities, and the partial spatial agglomeration phenomenon appears. Therefore, the green land use efficiency could be improved by improving land utilization efficiency, coordinating economic growth of construction land utilization with environmental protection and taking feasible ways to transregional renovation of the stock ecological land utilization, etc.

Regional Economic Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitans in China Based on a Heterogeneity Stochastic Frontier Model

Using a heterogeneity stochastic frontier model(HSFM),we empirically investigated the economic efficiency of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2003 to 2016 and its influencing factors.The key findings of the paper lie in:1)in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the overall economic and technological efficiency tended to increase in a wavelike manner,economic growth slowed down,and there was an obvious imbalance in economic efficiency between the different districts,counties and cities;2)the heterogeneity stochastic frontier production functions(SFPFs)of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei were different from each other,and investment was still an important impetus of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei;3)economic efficiency was positively correlated with economic agglomeration,human capital,industrial structure,infrastructure,the informatization level,and institutional factors,but negatively correlated with the government role and economic opening.The following policy suggestions are offered:1)to improve regional economic efficiency and reduce the economic gap in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,governments must reduce their intervention in economic activities,stimulate the potentials of labor and capital,optimize the structure of human resources,and foster new demographic incentives;2)governments must guide economic factors that are reasonable throughout Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and strengthen infrastructure construction in underdeveloped regions,thus attaining sustainable economic development;3)governments must plan overall economic growth factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and promote reasonable economic factors(e.g.,labor,resources,and innovations)across different regions,thus attaining complementary advantages between Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei.

Evaluation and Comparative Study of Industrial Competitiveness in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area

With the industrial competitiveness in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area in 2013 as the object of study,this paper uses principal component analysis to evaluate and compare the industrial competitiveness in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area,in order to provide reference for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei joint development. The results show that in terms of industrial structure competitiveness,Beijing > Tianjin > Hebei; in terms of agricultural competitiveness,Tianjin > Beijing > Hebei; in terms of industrial competitiveness,Tianjin > Beijing > Hebei; in terms of service industry competitiveness,Tianjin > Beijing > Hebei; in terms of high-tech industry competitiveness,Beijing > Tianjin > Hebei. It is suggested that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei should further optimize industrial structure,and develop modern service industry. In the Beijing-TianjinHebei joint development,Hebei should focus on the development of agriculture,Tianjin should focus on the development of industry,and Beijing should focus on the development of high-tech industry.

Problems and Countermeasures of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei's location

Regional economic integration is the main trend in the world,the region participate inthe international competition as a whole.China has formed Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region which have showed strong competitive and plays an important role in enhancing theoverall competitiveness of a country.As the third largest area,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei'slocation is very important,Beijing,Tianjin and regional development has also attracted great attention of national leaders,China will enhance the economic development of Beijing,Tianjin region to the national strategic level,However,the process of economic integration in Beijing,Tianjin and regional development has been relatively slow,Hebei Province in Beijing and the day Tianjin two big cities have been developing weak,Beijing City,but also faced with the problem of excessive development,This paper points out the problems faced by the integration of Beijing,Tianjin,and puts forward some countermeasures,hoping to discuss how to promote the integration process.

A Brief Analysis of the Causes and Countermeasures of Fog-Haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Since China broke the blockade and opened the country to the outside world, many township enterprises develop quickly. Together with the pollution caused by China’s coal-burning as the main source of national energy, the pollution caused by small and medium-sized enterprises in towns and villages due to their small investment, low technology level and weak environmental awareness, and the pollution caused by a sharp increase in motor vehicle emissions lead to the fact that fog-haze has been rampant in China’s cities and urban agglomerations for nearly two decades, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper sorted out the current situation of fog-haze and analyzed the causes of fog-haze from the two aspects of natural and man-made causes, discussed the harms of fog-haze to human body, environment and life, and put forward the concrete measures to solve the fog-haze problem.

Measurement of Urban Economic Gravity of China’s Three Major Agglomerations and Its Implications for the Coordinated Development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

This paper adopts the perspective of urban economic linkage and the modified urban economic gravity model to conduct a comparative analysis of the economic gravity among cities in China’s three major urban agglomerations,including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta,and the Pearl River Delta.The results show that,despite the ever-tightening economic linkages among cities in the urban agglomerations,the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region falls behind that of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta in terms of coordination,closeness,and balance.The economic linkages among cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are not as cohesive as they could be and display a significant“siphon effect”through Beijing and Tianjin as well as a prominently unidirectional economic flow.This study suggests that efforts should be put into directing the orderly flow of resources from Beijing and Tianjin to cities in Hebei and promoting a balanced economic flow among cities,thus facilitating the coordination of regional development.

Assessing performance of cross-administrative environment governance based on PSR model:An empirical analysis of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

As an effective environment governance tool,environment governance performance evaluation is an important content and method to promote the modernization of environment governance system and governance ability.The environmental pollution of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has typical cross-administrative characteristics.Based on the analysis of the major environmental pollution problems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,according to the international environment governance PSR model,a performance evaluation system that applies to the environment governance of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is established.Meanwhile,the principal component analysis method is applied to conduct an empirical analysis of the environmental governance panel data for the 13 major cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2014 to 2016.The results show that most of the cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region attach great importance to reduction of emission and pollutants,continuously alleviating the stress of environmental governance.However,the overall improvement of the environment governance performance in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has presented a polarization imbalance.There is a clear tendency for subjective biases in the implementation of environment governance and a lack of comprehensive and systematic governance.According to the environment governance performance evaluation result of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the cross-administrative regional environment governance should improve the environment governance performance evaluation system as soon as possible,strengthen the consistency of the environment governance objectives,and implement comprehensive and systematic governance for the regional environment.

Innovation Research on Collabora/ve Governance System of theAir Pollution 2 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from the Cost-effectiveness Perspective

论文以京津冀大气污染协同治理的成本构成为基础,分析阐述了由于跨区域协同治理的法律法规不完善,有关三地信息共享、利益补偿、监督管理等相关制度、机制不健全,加大了京津冀协同治理的交易成本,使协同治理的效率降低.为此,应加快完善京津冀协同治理的制度与机制创新,重点加强京津冀区域内生态补偿和排污权交易等经济激励机制建设,以实现京津冀协同治理的长效目标.

Research on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Integration Higher EducationResource Optimization Configuration Status and Evaluation System

京津冀协同发展对于京津冀三地的高等教育是一个极好的发展契机,但是三地的高等教育发展水平呈现了不平衡的态势,资源拥有量的差距较大D 因此,高等教育资源的优化配置是当下高等教育发展亟待解决的问题.在分析京津冀高等教育资源配置现状的基础上,立足于协同发展的视角,从影响高等教育资源配置的背景、师资资源、教育经费、教育基础设施、教育质量及成就等方面构建了京津冀高等教育资源配置评价指标体系.

Production potential and yield gaps of summer maize in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Crop potential productivity is a key index of scientifically appraising crop production and land population-supporting capacity. This study firstly simulated the potential and waterlimited yield of summer maize in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH） region using WOFOST model with meteorological data of 40 years, and then analyzed yield gaps between the actual and potential yield based on statistical data at county level. The potential and water-limited yield of summer maize in the BTH region is 6854–8789 kg/hm2 and 6434–8741 kg/hm2, and the weighted average for whole region is 7861 kg/hm2 and 7185 kg/hm2, respectively. The simulated yields gradually decrease from northeast to southwest with changes in climatic conditions particularly temperature and precipitation. Annual variation of potential yield is higher in the central and southern parts than the northeastern part. Compared to potential yield, the water-limited yield has higher coefficient of variation （CV）, because of precipitation effects. The actual yield of summer maize was 2537–8730 kg/hm2, regionally averaged at 5582 kg/hm2, about 70% of the potential yield, implying that the region has room to increase the yield by improving crop management and irrigation systems.

Spatial disparities of regional forest land change based on ESDA and GIS at the county level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area

Forest land is the essential and important natural resource that provides strong support for human survival and development. Research on forest land changes at the county level about its characteristics, rules, and spatial patterns is, therefore, important for regional resource protection and the sustainable development of the social economy. In this study we selected the GIS and Geoda software package to explore the spatial disparities of forest land changes at the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area county level, based on the global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses of exploratory spatial data. The results show that： 1） during 1985-2000, the global spatial autocorrelation of forest land change is significant in the study area. The global Moran＇s I value is 0.3122 for the entire time period and indicates significant positive spatial correlation （p 〈 0.05）. Moran＇s I value of forest land change decreases from 0.3084 at the time stage I to 0.3024 at the time stage II; 2） the spatial clustering characteristics of forest land changes appear on the whole in Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei area. Moran＇s 1 value decreases from the time stage I to time stage II, which means that trend of spatial clustering of forest land change is weakened in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area; 3） the grid map of the local Moran＇s I for each county reflects local spatial homo- geneity of forest land change, which means that spatial clustering about regions of high value and low value is especially significant. The regions with ＂High-High＂ correlation are mainly located in the north hilly area. However, the regions with ＂Low-Low＂ correlation were distributed in the middle of the study area. Therefore, protection strategies and concrete measures should be put in place for each regional cluster in the study area.

Heterogeneity of water-retention capacity of forest and its influencing factors based on meta-analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Water retention is important in forest ecosystem services. The heterogeneity analysis of water-retention capacity and its influencing factors is of great significance for the construction of water-retention functional areas, restoration of vegetation, and the protection of forest ecosystems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. A total of 1366 records concerning water-retention capacity in the canopy layer, litter layer, and soil layer of forest ecosystem in this region were obtained from 193 literature published from 1980 to 2017. The influencing factors of water-retention capacity in each layer were analyzed, and path analysis was used to investigate the contribution of the factors to the water-retention capacity of the three layers. The results showed that mixed forests had the highest water-retention capacity, followed by broad-leaved forests, coniferous forests, and shrub forests. In addition, no matter the forest type, the ranking of the water-retention capacity was soil layer, canopy layer, and litter layer from high to low. The main influencing factors of water-retention capacity in forest canopy were leaf area index and maximum daily precipitation(R2=0.49), and the influencing coefficients were 0.34 and 0.30, respectively. The main influencing factors of water-retention capacity in the litter layer were semi-decomposed litter(R2=0.51), and the influencing coefficient was 0.51. The main influencing factors of water-retention capacity in the soil layer were non-capillary porosity and soil depth(R2=0.61), the influencing coefficients were 0.60 and 0.38, respectively. This study verifies the simulation of the water balance model or inversion of remote sensing of the water-retention capacity at the site scale, and provides scientific basis for further study of the impact of global change on water retention.

Visual simulation of regional development differen- tiation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Regional development differentiation is a complicated spatial and temporal dynamic process. Recent developments in spatial statistics and Geographic Information Systems （GIS） have led to an increasing interest in quantitative analysis and visualization of the process. However, so far, few direct qonnections have been made between the newly developed methods and classic spatial development theories, which would be very helpful for the inter- pretation and understanding of regional spatiotemporal differentiation. Using basic concepts and academic principles of polarized growth theory and gradient transfer theory, this paper quantifies the concept of regional development space. It then proposes a method based on GIS to visually simulate and analyze regional development spatiotemporal differentiation through a case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region （BTHMR）, China. The main research results are as follows. 1） The proposed method, built on classic theories and well-developed GIS technology, presents a good picture of regional development spatiotem- poral differentiation. 2） The levels of regional development, in terms of per capita GDP across BTHMR, diminished significantly with increased distances away from city propers （which can be seen as the regional growth poles）, leading to the appearance of development valley zones between different cities. The development valley zones between each city coincided with their boundary areas, which indicates that administrative boundaries have some impact on regional development, if the regional division is based on administrative boundaries. 3） From 1993 to 2007, the development level in the whole BTHMR improved significantly, of which polarized growth was dominant, especially for Beijing and Tianjin. However, as the two economic development engines in BTHMR, the pull effects of both Beijing and Tianjin on their peripheral areas were comparatively weak, except for those on Tangshan. 4） The structure and pattern of gradient transfer and balanced development in the BTHMR had not been completely developed yet, and the sustained polarized development of the regional economy in BTHMR was still going to be the main trend in the next 5-10 years.

等级型城市群应急物资储备库网络优化模型——以京津冀城市群为例

构建具有等级性、多目标特征的应急物资储备库网络,对于城市群应急物资储备库的良性互动和城市群应急物资储备库网络的协同发展具有重要现实意义。结合城市群实际情况,对传统的等级设施选址模型加以改进,以实现城市群内受灾点民众接受应急物资配置总满意度最大、应急物资储备库之间总关联度最高和应急物资储备建设与储存成本最小为目标,构建了适用于城市群应急物资储备库网络优化的等级型设施选址模型。针对所构建模型的等级性、多目标特点,对传统两阶段启发式算法进行拓展,设计了三阶段启发式算法加以求解。以京津冀城市群为例进行实证,优化结果表明:所构建模型稳健性较强,所设计算法能实现对模型的有效求解。京津冀城市群内应设立北京市、天津市、石家庄市等6个区域级应急物资储备库,且进一步形成由区域级、市级、县(市、区)级3个等级构成的应急物资储备库网络协作区。

京津冀协同发展十周年回顾与展望

京津冀协同发展战略实施十周年,在疏解北京非首都功能方面推动形成了“一核两翼”发展新格局,在交通、生态环保、产业三大领域实现了率先突破,在教育、医疗、养老等公共服务均等化方面取得了令人瞩目的成效,在体制机制改革创新方面迈出了坚实的步伐。在高质量发展新阶段,努力成为中国式现代化建设的先行区、示范区已成为京津冀协同发展新的目标,因此,京津冀还须克服诸多短板和不足,以创新发展为动力,在加快形成“新质生产力”上走在全国前列;以协调发展为主线,在打造世界级城市群方面发挥示范带动作用;以绿色发展为导向,在建设生态修复环境改善示范区上实现新突破;以开放发展为助力,在打造改革开放引领区方面发挥先行先试作用;以共享发展为目的,在推进区域共同富裕方面打造全国样板。

“公转铁”政策对京津冀绿色物流效率的影响

为落实绿色发展理念,促进京津冀物流业高质量发展,有效发挥“公转铁”政策对绿色物流效率的提升效应,在系统梳理“公转铁”政策促进绿色物流效率理论机制的基础上,用2010—2020年京津冀地区面板数据,通过双重差分模型、广义双重差分模型和中介效应模型,研究“公转铁”政策对绿色物流效率的促进效应以及作用机制。研究发现,“公转铁”政策在京津冀地区的实施对提升绿色物流效率具有显著的促进效应,并且该效应在经过稳健性检验后依旧成立;政策实施力度对绿色物流效率存在显著的影响,绿色物流效率随着政策实施力度增强而不断提升;“公转铁”政策通过改变物流企业的运输方式偏好,增强铁路运输对公路运输的替代作用,提升绿色物流效率;绿色物流效率提升还受到铁路设施水平、区域建设水平、经济水平、创新能力等多种因素的影响。因此,京津冀绿色物流效率提升,应该考虑多种因素的综合影响,以多层次和系统性支撑政策推动“公转铁”政策的实施;以改变承担社会物流活动企业运输偏好为导向;充分考虑当地内外部环境,结合产业结构、创新能力等因素调整“公转铁”政策实施力度。

京津冀协同发展战略实施十年回顾及展望

京津冀协同发展战略实施近十年来,北京非首都功能疏解取得明显成效,北京城市副中心和雄安新区“两翼”建设稳步推进,三地交通一体化、生态联防联控、产业转型升级三大领域取得率先突破,区域内体制机制改革与创新稳步实施。但仍面临经济份额下降、创新驱动经济增长能力不强、人口和经济过密与过疏现象并存等问题。展望未来,应从现代化首都都市圈建设、打造“一核两翼”空间新格局、优化区域现代产业分工体系与区域创新格局、创新跨区域协同治理体制机制等方面,全面推进京津冀协同发展迈向更高水平、更优效益和更高质量,努力使京津冀成为中国式现代化建设的先行区、示范区。