Sensitivity of mountain runoff to climate change for Urumqi and Kaidu rivers originating from the Tianshan Mountains

The mountain watersheds of Kaidu River and Urumqi River, which separately originate from the south and north-side of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, are selected as the study area. The characteristics and trends on variation of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and the correlativity between temperature, precipitation, and runoffwere analyzed based on the past 40 years of observational data from the correlative hydrological and weather stations in the study areas. Various weather scene combinations are assumed and the response models of runoff to climate change are established in order to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in the study areas based on the foregoing analysis, Results show that all variations of temperature, precipitation, and runoff overall present an oscillating and increasing trend since the 1960s and this increase are quite evident after 1990. There is a markedly positive correlation between mountain runoff, temperature, and precipitation while there are obvious regional differences of responding degree to precipitation and temperature between mountain runoff of Ummqi River and Kaidu River Basins Also, mountain runoff of Urumqi River Basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Kaidu River Basin, and mountain runoff of Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to temperature change than that of Ummqi River Basin.

新疆中天山北坡断裂带不同海拔高度土壤温度分布特征

研究中天山断裂带从高山带到准噶尔盆地边缘整个过渡带的土壤温度分布特征有助于理解干旱区土壤环境特征,从而为土地利用、农业生产提供依据。本文选取新疆中天山断裂带海拔高度呈梯度分布的6个气象站2005年至2020年各层土壤温度的日观测数据,利用统计方法分析了不同地形、不同深度土壤温度随海拔高度的变化特征以及不同海拔高度土壤温度随深度的变化特征。分析表明:中天山北坡土壤温度变幅随海拔高度的降低而升高。不同地形的土壤最高温和最低温的年温差浅层大于深层,由浅至深年最高温度和年最低温度出现的时间逐渐推迟;年内中天山北坡不同海拔高度0~20 cm的土壤日平均温度曲线大致呈余弦函数曲线,320 cm深度的土壤温度基本呈正弦函数分布,较0~20 cm地温的最高和最低晚3个月左右。研究区土壤温度随海拔高度降低呈现先升高后降低的趋势。在海拔为3539~600 m高度范围,土壤温度随着海拔的升高而降低。在600~441 m高度范围,土壤温度随着海拔的下降而下降;0~20 cm为土壤温度变化的活跃层,40 cm深度的土壤温度可称之为过渡层,320 cm深度称为土壤温度的稳定层,80~160 cm称为土壤温度的次稳定层。

天山北坡西部雪岭云杉海拔梯度生态弹性变化

基于天山北坡西部温泉哈夏林区间隔100 m海拔高度采集的雪岭云杉梯度样本的断面积生长量资料,分析树木生态弹性变化。干旱事件是区域生态弹性最主要的干扰因子,高温事件也是干扰因子之一。干扰因子的强度会造成生态弹性梯度特征的变化。在极端干旱年份,哈夏林区梯度生态弹性特征最显著,即中高海拔为强抵抗力和弱恢复力,而低海拔则呈相反态势,并出现生长衰退现象。中旱事件时不同海拔均为强抵抗力和较强的恢复力,高温年份低海拔呈现弱抵抗力和弱恢复力。在发生持续干旱时,不同海拔高度的树木生长均受到遏制,但低海拔衰退强度大于高海拔区域,高海拔区域树木对干旱的适应能力要强于中低海拔。

天山北坡经济带城乡聚落格局变化与影响因素分析

以天山北坡经济带城乡聚落为研究对象,采用景观格局指数、地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析、位序-规模法等分析1980-2020年间城乡聚落格局的变化,结合地理探测器从自然、区位及社会经济因素探究城乡聚落格局的影响因素。结果表明:1980-2020年间,城乡聚落数量、规模持续扩张且趋于集聚,前20 a扩张以耕地、草地为主,后20 a以未利用地为主;城乡聚落密度变化显著,高密度区主要集中在各绿洲呈现“多核集中分布”特征,中密度区沿高密度区周围扩张,低密度区沿绿洲边缘分布并在非绿洲区有扩张;首位聚落规模发展较好,趋于位序-规模曲线,中型聚落略微发育,小型聚落数量持续减少;交通等区位因素是天山北坡城乡聚落格局的首位影响因素,社会经济因素次之,自然地理因素影响较小,各影响因素差异显著。

近30年天山北坡改进型遥感生态指数时空变化及其驱动因素

天山北坡是西北地区重要的生态功能区和重要经济带,受气候变化和人类活动的影响,脆弱的生态环境面临着巨大挑战,但目前对该地区生态环境质量时空变化、特征及驱动力的认识较少。为此,本文利用改进型遥感生态指数(ERSEI)、空间自相关分析、多元线性回归分析和地理加权分析方法揭示天山北坡1990、2000、2010和2020年4个时期生态环境质量时空变化、特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)1990-2020年天山北坡ERSEI先大幅下降后逐渐恢复并持续上升,生态环境质量逐渐改善并趋于稳定,总体呈“东优西劣”的空间格局;(2)天山北坡生态环境对气候变化较为敏感,温度是ERSEI变化的最重要驱动因子;(3)不同驱动因素对ERSEI的影响存在显著的空间异质性,自然因素对局部ERSEI空间分异起主导作用,人为因素则对年际ERSEI变化产生重要影响。这表明气候变化和人类活动显著影响ERSEI变化,未来应科学规划各类经济活动,减缓气候变化效应,提升天山北坡生态安全和环境可持续性。

天山北坡城市群国土空间格局识别与时空变化分析

气候变化和人类活动大环境下,探索国土空间格局演化特征及其规律对进一步缓和绿洲地区人地矛盾有着重要的意义。以天山北坡城市群为例,选取2000、2010年和2020年3期土地利用数据及DEM数据,基于“三生”空间理论对天山北坡城市群国土空间结构数量与空间分布进行分析。结果表明:(1)20 a间天山北坡城市群“三生”空间类型面积呈不同程度的增减,其中水域和林地生态空间的转出量最多,牧草和其他生态空间两者间相互的转换数量最大;(2)研究区除阜康市、木垒哈萨克自治县、奇台县、石河子市及乌鲁木齐市的国土空间利用程度综合指数呈小幅度增加和递减外,其他县域呈逐年提高趋势;(3)生产空间的核密度高值区呈东南-西北条带状,连片分布于研究区的中部,而生态空间的核密度高值区则分布于研究区外围;生活空间的核密度高值区以乌鲁木齐市为中心呈点状分布,周围衍生出许多零碎的中值点,总体分布较为破碎,空间连接性较低。

基于资源约束的新疆天山北坡乡村建设发展模式探究

新疆地理环境特殊、生态脆弱、气候干旱、经济滞后、人文环境独特。该区域乡村的发展在自然资源的约束下面临更大的局限性和挑战性。基于上述背景,新疆乡村走出自己的发展路径、提高自然环境适应能力迫在眉睫。文章对天山北坡的区域资源进行梳理和归纳,根据区域现状调研和分析,将其分为农牧业资源、区位资源、人文生态资源,总结出3种大类资源下的7种乡村建设模式。为自然资源匮乏的乡村建设发展提供参考与借鉴。

348-YEAR PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION FROM TREE-RINGS FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE MIDDLE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

Correlation census shows that the correlation between the tree-ring chronologies in the Urumqi River Basin and precipitation during July in the last year to February in the concurrent year is significant,and the best single correlation coefficient is 0.74,with significance level of 0.0001. Using two residual chronologies collected from west Baiyanggou and Boerqingou,precipitation for 348 years can be reconstructed in the North Slope of middle Tianshan Mountains,its explained variance is 62%.According to much verification from independent precipitation data,historical climate records,glacier and other data.it shows that the reconstructed precipitation series of 348 years is reliable.Analysis of precipitation features indicates that there were three wet periods occurring during 1671(?)—1692,1716—1794 and 1825—1866 and three dry periods during 1693 —1715,1795—1824 and 1867—1969.Two wet periods,during 1716—1794 and 1825—1866, correspond to the times of the second and the third glacial terminal moraine formation,which is in front of No.1 glacier in Urumqi River source.According to computation,corresponding annual precipitation amounts are 59mm and 30mm more than now.The reconstructed precipitation series has a significant drying trend from 1716 to 1969.and has better representativeness to the precipitation of Urumqi and Changji Prefecture on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains.

Spatio-temporal correlation between human activity intensity and land surface temperature on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains

Research on the spatio-temporal correlation between the intensity of human activities and the temperature of earth surfaces is of great significance in many aspects,including fully understanding the causes and mechanisms of climate change,actively adapting to climate change,pursuing rational development,and protecting the ecological environment.Taking the north slope of Tianshan Mountains,located in the arid area of northwestern China and extremely sensitive to climate change,as the research area,this study retrieves the surface temperature of the mountain based on MODIS data,while characterizing the intensity of human activities thereby data on the night light,population distribution and land use.The evolution characteristics of human activity intensity and surface temperature in the study area from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed,and the spatio-temporal correlation between them was further explored.It is found that:(1)The average human activity intensity(0.11)in the research area has kept relatively low since this century,and the overall trend has been slowly rising in a stepwise manner(0.0024·a-1);in addition,the increase in human activity intensity has lagged behind that in construction land and population by 1-2 years.(2)The annual average surface temperature in the area is 7.18℃with a pronounced growth.The rate of change(0.02℃·a-1)is about 2.33 times that of the world.The striking boost in spring(0.068℃·a-1)contributes the most to the overall warming trend.Spatially,the surface temperature is low in the south and high in the north,due to the prominent influence of the underlying surface characteristics,such as elevation and vegetation coverage.(3)The intensity of human activity and the surface temperature are remarkably positively correlated in the human activity areas there,showing a strong distribution in the east section and a weak one in the west section.The expression of its spatial differentiation and correlation is comprehensively affected by such factors as scopes of human activities,manifestations,and land-use changes.Vegetation-related human interventions,such as agriculture and forestry planting,urban greening,and afforestation,can effectively reduce the surface warming caused by human activities.This study not only puts forward new ideas to finely portray the intensity of human activities but also offers a scientific reference for regional human-land coordination and overall development.

Ecological response to the climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang

The Tianshan Mountains is a high and huge mountain body lying across the central part of Xinjiang, China, and is also the main area where the runoff forms in Xinjiang. In this paper, a set of RS-based study methods is put forward for deriving the information about the natural change of the ecology in arid areas, and the relationship between the climate change trend and the corresponding ecological response on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is analyzed from the scales of the land cover ecosystems and landscapes based on the observed data of climate, hydrology, modern glaciers and lakes on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years and the satellite RS data since recent 10 years by using the RS and GIS technologies. The results are as follows: (1) The overall trend of climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is that both air temperature and precipitation are increased, especially the increase amplitudes of air tempera-ture, precipitation and annual runoff volume are high since the decade of the 1990s; (2) the in-tegrated indexes of the vegetation in all the geographical divisions on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are obviously increased since recent 10 years, especially in the artificial oases and the foothill belts, such a change trend is advantageous for improving the vegetation ecology; and (3) the vegetation ecology in the arid areas is extremely sensitive to the climate change, the vegetation coverage and the biomass on the northern slope of the Tianshan Moun-tains are continuously increased because of the climate change since recent 10 years, their in-crease amplitudes in the plains and during the late stage are obviously higher than that in the mountainous regions and during the early stage.

数字经济与实体经济耦合协调研究——基于天山北坡经济带的实证研究

数字经济与实体经济之间有着紧密的联系。通过对天山北坡经济带2016-2020年9个县市的面板数据进行统计分析,构建了数字经济和实体经济评价的基本框架,并通过耦合模型评价了二者的耦合协调程度。结果表明:2016-2020年,天山北坡经济带数字经济与实体经济发展耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,除奎屯市以外,其他各县市都达到了失调以上;乌鲁木齐市发展一直很稳定,并且耦合协调度在一直上升。但由于各个县市之间仍存在着较大差距,所以总体的耦合协调度水平还不够高。因此,需要积极促进居民消费,大力发展工业;继续加强薄弱部门的基础设施建设;推动中小企业数字化转型。通过这些措施促进区域经济社会协调发展。

地形因子对天山北坡天山云杉林土壤有机碳的影响

【目的】研究地形因子对天山北坡天山云杉林土壤有机碳的影响。【方法】在新疆农业大学实习林场选取不同海拔、不同坡度和不同坡向的样地采集土壤样品,测定土壤有机碳含量并计算其碳密度。【结果】不同海拔梯度下,天山云杉林土壤有机碳含量介于41.65~77.67 g/kg,土壤有机碳密度介于9.47~14.27 kg/m^(2),土壤有机碳含量及密度均随着海拔的升高呈减少的趋势。0~20 cm土层坡度小于15°时,土壤有机碳含量表现为最高(105.08 g/kg),而当坡度达到30°~35°时,土壤有机碳含量最低;不同坡向上土壤有机碳含量从高到低依次为阴坡>半阴坡>半阳坡>阳坡,其中0~20 cm土层阴坡上土壤有机碳含量显著高于阳坡(P<0.05),20~60 cm土层土壤有机碳含量在各坡向之间差异不显著。【结论】天山北坡天山云杉林在高海拔区域内整个剖面土壤有机碳含量分布较低海拔区域相对均匀。坡向对土壤有机碳的再分配作用在20~60cm土层土壤中难以发挥作用。

中天山北坡冬季降雪变化及其影响因子分析

利用中天山北坡17个国家级气象站1978—2020年冬季逐日降水、气温要素等观测资料,采用多种统计方法,分析冬季降雪时空变化特征及其与气象因子的关系,结果表明:降雪日数和降雪量区域分布相似,均呈“城区多,山区少”分布特征;小雪日减少是导致总雪日减小的直接原因,中雪和暴雪显著增多是造成总降雪量增多的主要原因;持续1 d降水过程是冬季主要降雪过程,随着持续时间的增长,降水过程显著减少,≥5 d降水过程仅占2.8%;近43 a中天山北坡气候呈现较明显的暖湿化趋势,1987年、1994年分别发生降雪量由少变多和平均气温由低变高的突变;降雪量与年降水量、冬季平均最低气温、降雪日数呈显著正相关,年降水量越大、冬季最低气温越低、出现降雪日数越多,冬季降雪量就越大,反之越小。

近60 a天山北坡冰川变化研究

从流域尺度揭示天山北坡冰川变化状况,对下游绿洲地区水资源的合理开发利用具有重要意义。基于多源遥感影像提取天山北坡诸河流域近期冰川边界,结合前期发布的冰川编目及AS⁃TER DEM数据,对该区域冰川面积和物质平衡变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)2015年前后天山北坡共计分布冰川10061条,总面积约4855.85±245.86 km^(2)。1960s—2015年天山北坡国内段冰川面积萎缩速率为0.52%·a^(-1)±0.06%·a^(-1),且近年来呈加速萎缩趋势(0.96%·a^(-1)±0.88%·a^(-1));1999—2015年天山北坡国外段冰川面积萎缩速率约为0.56%·a^(-1)±0.31%·a^(-1)。(2)2000—2020年天山北坡冰川表面高程变化速率约为-0.57±0.01 m·a^(-1),冰川物质呈持续亏损态,物质平衡为-0.39±0.04 m w.e.·a^(-1)。(3)天山北坡东、西段冰川面积和物质平衡变化均存在一定的空间差异性,近十几年间,东段各子流域冰川面积萎缩速率和物质亏损速率均相对较大。

东天山北坡荒漠区15种植物热值特征研究

灌木和半灌木是维持干旱和半干旱地区生态系统稳定性的重要植被类型。采集东天山北坡荒漠区的15种优势灌木和半灌木植物茎、枝、叶等器官样品,测定其热值、灰分、碳含量,研究灌木种类、器官、灰分含量和碳含量对灌木热值的影响及其相关性,以期为深入了解干旱地区典型沙漠环境下的物质和能量循环研究提供理论依据。结果表明:1)15种植物全株(地上)热值范围为14.21KJ/g(短叶假木贼)~19.87KJ/g(小檗),平均热值为18.38KJ/g,该值高于全球陆生植物平均热值;2)灌木物种科间热值和碳含量存在差异,豆科和菊科植物相对于蔾属和蓼科植物有更高的热值和碳含量;3)灌木植物茎、枝、叶的热值,灰分含量和碳含量也存在差异,植物各器官热值平均值大小顺序为茎>枝>叶,灰分含量平均值大小顺序为叶>枝>茎,碳含量平均值大小顺序为枝>茎>叶;4)热值与灰分之间呈现极显著负相关(P<0.01),与碳含量呈现极显著正相关(P<0.01)。

天山北坡经济带休闲农业新动能分析

天山北坡经济带休闲农业各项工作走在新疆全区前列,起到了示范标杆的引领作用。对该区域休闲农业进行分析有助于为行业发展提供理论支撑,对加快推动天山北坡经济带休闲农业发展具有重要的作用和意义。基于天山北坡经济带具有代表性的21家示范点,选取12项指标,运用因子分析和聚类分析对休闲农业新动能进行研究,分析了天山北坡经济带休闲农业发展现状,揭示了天山北坡经济带休闲农业新动能的潜在动力。结果显示:4类因子排名靠前或靠后的休闲农业示范点具有不同的特点;综合得分中,位居前列的示范点综合实力较强、经济收益多、社会贡献大,综合排名较后的示范点相反;运用聚类分析法对示范点进行聚类分析,可将其分为4类,4类休闲农业示范点具有不同的特征;总体来看,新疆休闲农业低层次、同质化、时令短的发展水平与日益多元的市场需求还不相适应。基于此,挖掘天山北坡经济带休闲农业新动能,建议瞄准市场定位,创新经营模式;突出产品特色,增强消费体验;完善基础设施,改进环境条件;发掘文化内涵,提升休闲品质。

天山北坡西部树木年轮对气候因子的响应分析及气温重建

利用博尔塔拉蒙古自治州三个采点的树轮宽度年表，通过相关和响应面分析的方法，分析三个树木年轮宽度对气候因子的响应。分析表明，三个年表与博州地区的年平均最低气温和7月降水量呈较显著的正相关，且呈现相同的响应，仅在气温偏低时，三个年表响应不一致。通过分析，选择年最低气温作为重建对象，具有明显的树木生理学意义。利用树轮年表重建了博州1576—2002年的年最低气温，通过逐一剔除检验，发现重建值稳定可靠。在427a中，存在2～3a和40～50a左右的周期性振荡，1631年、1832年、1920年和1961年左右发生过突变。

天山北坡山地森林与河川径流关系的探讨

分析研究了天山北坡山地森林与河川径流关系问题 ,结果表明 :天山北坡山地系统的降水、冰川、森林植被等流域因素在不同空间集水区内的不同组合 ,是决定山地森林与河川径流关系的关键所在 ;天山北坡山地森林与河川径流关系表现出在林率低于 10 %的流域 ,森林具有增加河川年径流量的效应 ;而在林率高于 10 %的流域 ,森林具有减少河川年径流量的效应 ;森林的调蓄功能是以森林分布的规模和森林质量为基础 ,在具有一定森林规模的河流集水区 。

天山北坡玛纳斯河355a来年径流量的重建与分析

玛纳斯河树轮年表序列与该河肯斯瓦特水文站年径流总量相关显著,使用5个树轮年表序列较好地重建出天山北坡玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特水文站355a来的年径流总量,解释方差达61%.355a重建流量变化表明:1)玛纳斯河年径流总量355a来大致经历了11个偏枯水期和10个偏丰水期,最长的偏丰水期为1670—1699年,持续了30a,最长的偏枯水期为1949—1994年,持续了46a;2)最显著的两个百年流量变枯趋势为1872—1995年和1671—1775年,径流量减少率分别为0.19×108m3·(10a)-1和0.26×108m3·(10a)-1;3)在1711—1712年、1872年重建流量发生过两次突变,前者年径流量由多到少突变,后者相反;4)重建流量最丰水的年代为17世纪80—90年代,比现今偏多17.9%～18.1%,最枯水的年代为19世纪60年代,比现今偏少16.7%;5)重建流量存在着58～59、9.6、27.2、16.9、4.8、4.3、2.9～3.0a的变化周期.

放牧强度对天山北坡草甸草原土壤有机碳的影响

以新疆天山北坡草甸草原为研究对象,研究不同放牧强度下土壤有机碳含量差异.结果表明,随着放牧强度的增大,土壤有机碳含量逐渐减少,各处理有机碳含量表现为轻牧＞不放牧＞中牧＞重牧.各放牧强度上土壤有机碳含量的差异主要表现在10～20与20 ～ 30 cm土层.空间分布上,土壤有机碳随土壤深度的增加而降低;不同的放牧强度只对草地表层土壤全氮含量有影响,而对深层次土壤影响不大.各处理碳氮比变化不大,集中分布在0 ～20 cm土层,20 cm以下土壤碳氮比明显下降;有机碳密度大小表现为不放牧＞中牧＞轻牧＞重牧.0 ～20 cm土层碳密度占总碳密度的38.07％～40.64％.