Time trends in myopia and high myopia prevalence in young university adults in China

AIM:To investigate time trends in myopia and high myopia prevalence over 6y among young university adults in China.METHODS:This is a 6-year series cross-sectional study from 2016 to 2021.Totally 4910 freshmen were enrolled and completed a questionnaire concerning age,gender,and disease history.Students with eye diseases were excluded after a detailed eye examination.The refractive status was measured by non-cycloplegic objective refraction and ocular parameters were measured by Lenstar 900.The examination followed the same protocol each year.Trends over time in myopia and high myopia prevalence,as well as ocular biometry parameters,were analyzed.RESULTS:From 2016 to 2021,the axial length(AL)and corneal radius(CR)increased significantly(P=0.002 for AL;P=0.04 for CR).However,the spherical equivalent(SE)and the ratio of axial length to the corneal radius(AL/CR)did not change significantly(P=0.59 for SE;P=0.24 for AL/CR).The frequency of AL≥26.0 mm increased from 26.6%in 2016 to 29.3%in 2021(P=0.05 for trend).The prevalence of myopia and high myopia did not change significantly in our study(P≥0.18).Compared to a similar cross-sectional study conducted 10 years ago,the prevalence of myopia decreased significantly(94.9%vs 91.8%,P<0.001).Whereas the prevalence of high myopia increased largely(18.12%vs 27.6%,P<0.001).CONCLUSION:The prevalence of high myopia increases in young university adults during 10y period.Myopia control should begin earlier in childhood.However,these interventions are still needed for high myopia even in young adulthood.

Increasing pancreatic cancer is not paralleled by pancreaticoduodenectomy volumes in Brazil:A time trend analysis

Background: Currently, surgical resection represents the only curative treatment for pancreatic cancer(PC), however, the majority of tumors are no longer resectable by the time of diagnosis. The aim of this study was to describe time trends and distribution of pancreaticoduodenectomies(PDs) performed for treating PC in Brazil in recent years. Methods: Data were retrospectively obtained from Brazilian Health Public System(namely DATASUS) regarding hospitalizations for PC and PD in Brazil from January 2008 to December 2015. PC and PD rates and their mortalities were estimated from DATASUS hospitalizations and analyzed for age, gender and demographic characteristics. Results: A total of 2364 PDs were retrieved. Albeit PC incidence more than doubled, the number of PDs increased only 37%. Most PDs were performed in men(52.2%) and patients between 50 and 69 years old(59.5%). Patients not surgically treated and those 70 years or older had the highest in-hospital mortality rates. The most developed regions(Southeast and South) as well as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered 76.2% and 54.8% of the procedures, respectively. LMIM PD mortality fluctuated, ranging from 13.6% in 2008 to 11.8% in 2015. Conclusions: This study suggests a trend towards regionalization and volume-outcome relationships for PD due to PC, as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered most of the PDs and more stable mortality rates. The substantial differences between PD and PC increasing rates reveals a limiting step on the health system resoluteness. Reduction in the number of hospital beds and late access to hospitalization, despite improvement in diagnostic methods, could at least in part explain these findings.

Comparative Analysis of Climatic Change Trend and Change-Point Analysis for Long-Term Daily Rainfall Annual Maximum Time Series Data in Four Gauging Stations in Niger Delta

The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Using daily or 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) data with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the modified Chowdury Indian Meteorological Department (MCIMD) models were adopted to downscale the time series data. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE) test showed a statistically significant trend for Uyo and Benin, while Port Harcourt and Warri showed mild trends. The Sen’s Slope magnitude and variation rate were 21.6, 10.8, 6.00 and 4.4 mm/decade, respectively. The trend change-point analysis showed the initial rainfall change-point dates as 2002, 2005, 1988, and 2000 for Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri, respectively. These prove positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in the study area. Erosion and flood control facilities analysis and design in the Niger Delta will require the application of Non-stationary IDF modelling.

Trend and Periodicity of Temperature Time Series in Ontario

The trends and periodicities in the annual and seasonal temperature time series at fifteen weather stations within Ontario Great Lakes Basins have been analyzed, for the period 1941-2005, using the statistical analyses (Fourier series analysis, t-test, and Mann-Kendall test). The stations were spatially divided into three regions: northwest (NW), southwest (SW), and southeast (SE) to evaluate spatial variability in temperature. The results of the study reveal that the annual maximum mean temperature showed increasing trend for NW, and mixed trends for SW and SE regions. The variability was found to be more for northern stations as compared to southern stations for annual extreme minimum temperature. In addition, the trend slope per 100 years for the average annual extreme minimum temperature increased within the range of -0.8°C (Stratford) to 15°C (Porcupine). The seasonal analysis demonstrated that extreme maximum temperature has an increasing trend and maximum mean temperature has a decreasing trend during summer and winter. The extreme minimum temperature for winter illustrated an increasing trend (90%) with 22% statistically significant for NW region. For the SW region, the trend is also increasing (80%) for most of the temperature variables and 25% of temperature data were significantly increased in the SW region. The SE region stations showed overall very clear increasing trends (95%) for all the temperature variables. The data also showed that 47% of data were statistically significant in the SE region. The analysis of variance accounted for by trend, significant periodicities, and random component show that the pattern is similar for the percent of variance accounted for periodicities, and random component contribute dominantly for the four temperature variables and frost free days (FFD) for all three regions. Overall, the study reveals that the extreme minimum temperature is increasing annually and seasonally, with statistically significant at many stations.

Conforming to the Trend at An Appropriate Time——My Thoughts on the Building of the Silk Road Economic Belt

During his state visit to Kazakhstan this September,President Xi Jinping made a concrete proposal to build a Silk Road Economic Belt(SREB for short in the following paragraphs)from the aspects of policy communication,road connectivity,

Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Food Production in China Based on Time Series Trend Chart

Based on the annual sample data on food production in China since the reform and opening up,we select 8 main factors influencing the total food production( growing area,application rate of chemical fertilizer,effective irrigation area,the affected area,total machinery power,food production cost index,food production price index,financial funds for supporting agriculture,farmers and countryside),and put them into categories of material input,resources and environment,and policy factors. Using the factor analysis,we carry out the multi-angle analysis of these typical influencing factors one by one through the time series trend chart. It is found that application rate of chemical fertilizer,the growing area of food crops and drought-affected area become the key factors affecting food production. On this basis,we set forth the corresponding recommendations for improving the comprehensive food production capacity.

Piecewise linear representation of time series based on mean trend in sliding window

Seismic data show some important characteristics, such as big volume and strong timeliness. Specific to the time series data of earthquake precursory observations, a piecewise linear representation based on the sliding window mean value （PLR_MTSW） algorithm is proposed. With this algorithm, the mutation points can be identified accurately according to the rate Of mean value change, while the main features of time series are maintained well. This algorithm can also smooth the noise and improve the compression accuracy with sliding window. Meanwhile the local extreme points can be identified effectively according to the change of mean value trend within window.

Strengthening Exchanges and Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region Follows the Trend of the Times——Sidelights of the 10^(th) Northeast Asia Youth Forum

The 10thNortheast Asia Youth Forum,with the theme of China-ROK-Japan Youth Employment Guidance,sponsored by Moral Re-Armament/Initiatives of Change(MRA/IC)-Korea was held in Seoul and Cheonan from August 12 to 17.Seventy five college students from 37 universities sent by China International Youth Exchange Center,Moral Re-Armament/Initiatives of Change(MRA/IC)-Korea and Japan Society attended the Forum.Lee Boksil,Vice-Minister of Ministry of

A TREND DISPLACEMENT ANALYSIS FOR SPACE AND TIME ON XINTAN LANDSLIDE

This paper, having made systematic trend analysis on the front and rear segments of Xintan landslide for space and time respectively by using matbematical statistical principles,discovered that there is obvious trend displacement Of the monitoring points in the rear margin area of the slope and the rates of trend displacement gradually increase with time whereas there is no trend displacement of the monitoring points in the front margin area. This result suggests that the rear margin area of segment is an area of overall sliding and is transforming towards destabilization whereas the front margin area is an area of relative stability. This analytical result well coincides with the conclusion of evaluation on dynamic stability. The analytical result mentioned above shows that the medium to short term forecast and prediction of slope stability can be made by using trend displacement analysis technique in order to achieve the goal of timely evaluation and prevention.

Statistical Analysis for Assessing Randomness, Shift and Trend in Rainfall Time Series under Climate Variability and Change: Case of Senegal

The main purpose of this study is to assess the climate variability and change through statistical processing tools that able to highlight annual and monthly rainfall behavior between 1970 and 2010 in six strategical raingauges located in northern (Saint-Louis, Bakel), central (Dakar, Kaolack), and southern (Ziguinchor, Tambacounda) part of Senegal. Further, differences in sensitivity of statistical tests are also exhibited by applying several tests rather than a single one to check for one behavior. Dependency of results from statistical tests on studied sequence in time series is also shown comparing results of tests applied on two different periods (1970-2010 and 1960-2010). Therefore, between 1970 and 2010, exploratory data analysis is made to give in a visible manner a first idea on rainfall behavior. Then, Statistical characteristics such as the mean, variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis are calculated. Subsequently, statistical tests are applied to all retained time series. Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests allow verifying whether or not annual rainfall observations are independent. Hubert’s procedures of segmentation, Pettitt, Lee Heghinian and Buishand tests allow checking rainfall homogeneity. Trend is undertaken by first employing the annual and seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test, and in case of significance, magnitude of trend is calculated by Sen’s slope estimator tests. All statistical tests are applied in the period of 1960-2010. Explanatory analysis data indicates upwards trends for records in northern and central and trend free for southern records. Application of multiple tests shows that the Kendall and spearman ranks correlation tests lead to same conclusion. The difference in tests sensitivity was shown by outcomes of homogeneity tests giving different results either in dates of the shift occurrence or in the significance of an eventual shift. A synthesis analysis of results of tests was carried out to conclude about rainfall behaviors. Tests for homogeneity show that southern rainfall is homogeneous, while northern and central ones are not. According to trend test, upwards trends in Northern and central rainfall trend free in southern assumption in exploratory data analysis have been confirmed. The Sen’s slop estimator shows that all retained trend can be assumed to linear type. The same test over the period 1960-2010 shows independence of observations in all raingauges and exhibits neither trends nor breaks. This seems to show a return to a wet period.

A 10-year review and epidemiology of animal bite cases in Gerash city, south of Iran: A retrospective cross-sectional study

Objective:To determine the temporal trend and epidemiology of animal bite cases in Gerash City,Iran.Methods:This retrospective cross-sectional study analyzed 630 cases of people with animal bites between 2011 and 2021 in Gerash City.The collected data were analyzed using Chi-square test.Results:The mean age of victims was(30.9±17.5)years.80.54%Of victims were male,39.70%were self-employed,and 64.60%were adults(≥18 years).Most cases of bites occurred in 2019(91 cases),2020(74 cases)and 2021(87 cases),and most of the bites were related to the upper limbs(62.70%).Most of the wounds were superficial(78%),most of the biting animals were domestic animals(91.74%),and most of the victims had Iranian nationality(97.62%).Conclusions:Given the increasing trend of animal bites in Gerash City,health authorities should carry out basic measures such as education and awareness among the public,especially at-risk groups such as adult males.Additionally,since most cases of bites are due to dogs,it seems necessary to plan for vaccination of dogs,especially those with owners.

考虑谐波严重程度的长时间尺度谐波责任划分方法

针对现有谐波责任划分方法未考虑不同谐波严重程度下责任所造成的实际影响差异,提出一种考虑谐波严重程度的长时间尺度谐波责任划分方法。考虑谐波数值分布与变化趋势两方面因素划分工况,并计算各工况综合权重量化谐波严重程度;基于典型相关性分析原理筛选长时间尺度数据,并根据谐波责任定义式估算谐波责任;结合上述综合权重获取长时间尺度综合谐波责任划分指标;采用仿真算例与实测数据进行验证,与传统方法相比,所提方法可反映各谐波源在长时间尺度下不同次数谐波造成的累计影响,更适用于谐波精准治理与公平奖惩工作。

Cancer burden in China:trends,risk factors and prevention

As the most populous country in the world,China has made strides in health promotion in the past few decades.With the aging population,the burden of cancer in China continues to grow.Changes in risk factors for cancer,especially diet,obesity,diabetes,and air pollution,continue to fuel the shift of cancer transition in China.The burden of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China is decreasing,but still heavy.The rising burden of colorectal,prostate,and breast cancers is also significant.Lung cancer became the top cause of cancer-related deaths,together with smoking as the most important contributor to cancer deaths.The Chinese government has taken several approaches to control cancer and cancer-related risk factors.Many achievements have been made,but some challenges remain.Health China 2030 is ambitious and depicts a bright vision of the future for cancer control in China.The decrease in the cancer burden in China will require cross-sector collaboration and coordinated efforts on primary and secondary preventions by governments,public health organizations,and individuals.In this review,we describe the trends of cancer burden and discuss cancer-related risk factors in China,identifying strategies to reduce the burden of cancer in China.

Changing trends of clinicopathologic features and survival duration after surgery for gastric cancer in Northeast China

BACKGROUND Through analyzing the data from a single institution in Northeast China,this study revealed the possible clinicopathologic characteristics that influence the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer(GC).AIM To evaluate the changing trends of clinicopathologic features and survival duration after surgery in patients with GC in Northeast China,which is a highprevalence area of GC.METHODS The study analyzed the difference in clinicopathologic features and survival duration after surgery of 5887 patients who were histologically diagnosed with GC at the Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital.The study mainly analyzed the data in three periods,2000 to 2004(Phase 1),2005 to 2009(Phase 2),and 2010 to 2014(Phase 3).RESULTS Over time,the postoperative survival rate significantly increased from 2000 to 2014.In the past 15 years,compared with Phases 1 and 2,the tumor size was smaller in Phase 3(P<0.001),but the proportion of high-medium differentiated tumors increased(P<0.001).The proportion of early GC gradually increased from 3.9%to 14.4%(P<0.001).A surprising improvement was observed in the mean number of retrieved lymph nodes,ranging from 11.4 to 27.5(P<0.001).The overall 5-year survival rate increased from 24%in Phase 1 to 43.8%in Phase 3.Through multivariate analysis,it was found that age,tumor size,histologic type,tumor-node-metastasis stage,depth of invasion,lymph node metastasis,surgical approach,local infiltration,radical extent,number of retrieved lymph nodes,and age group were independent risk factors that influenced the prognosis of patients with GC.CONCLUSION The clinical features of GC in Northeast China changed during the observation period.The increasing detection of early GC and more standardized surgical treatment effectively prolonged lifetimes.

基于运行效率分布差异的水电机组劣化状态趋势预测

为解决水电机组劣化状态难以刻画及预测精度低的问题,需深入探究不同机组状态下运行效率的分布差异特性,提出了一种基于运行效率分布差异的水电机组劣化状态趋势预测方法。首先,综合考虑水电机组工况(水头、流量)与效率之间映射关系和状态监测数据随机性,利用高斯混合模型拟合多工况下机组健康状态运行效率的概率分布特性;在此基础上,计算观测样本在机组健康状态分布下的负对数似然概率,并以此作为水电机组劣化状态指标,表征观测样本与机组健康状态标准分布之间的偏差;进一步采用非因果原理和高斯误差线性单元,分别改进时间卷积网络(TCN)的膨胀卷积模块和残差模块,并融合门控循环单元(GRU),设计并构建水电机组劣化状态预测模型;最后,利用某水电站#6机组实际运行监测数据开展方法验证。结果表明,所提方法能有效提升机组劣化状态趋势预测精度。

基于seasonal-trend-loess方法的符号化时间序列网络

为了有效控制海量数据时间序列网络的规模并使得网络更贴近实际,符号化时间序列网络成为研究热点.结合周期性时间序列的seasonal-trend-loess方法和符号化转化方法,本文提出一种新的符号化时间序列建网方法.该方法考虑了单个数据值的状态又结合了序列的长远变化趋势.以符号模式为节点;依时间顺序推移,以节点间的邻接转换关系定义连边;根据转换方向和转换频次确定连边的方向和权重,建立有向加权网络.分别以航空旅客吞吐量时间序列和因特网流量时间序列为实验数据构建的两个时间序列网络,有明显差异的拓扑特征;进一步对移动通信语音时间序列做了实证分析,挖掘时间序列数据的本质规律.

登陆我国内陆热带气旋的衰减趋势分析

全球变暖背景下,登陆热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)的衰减速度是否放缓存在争议,登陆时强度不同的TC的衰减趋势是否一致还不清楚.利用两个描述登陆TC衰减的物理量,即登陆衰减时间尺度τ和登陆衰减维持时间D,研究了1980-2021年登陆我国内陆TC的衰减变化趋势,并探讨了TC登陆强度分档对衰减变化趋势的影响.对于登陆我国内陆的TC,无论是τ还是D,整体来看都没有随时间显著变化的趋势.进一步将TC的登陆强度分为热带风暴(Tropical Storm,TS)、强热带风暴(Severe Tropical Storm,STS)和台风(Typhoon,TY)档,发现不同强度档的登陆TC,其登陆地点以及登陆后的路径体现出不同特征,使得不同强度档登陆TC的衰减趋势存在差异.从TS档到STS档再到TY档,τ随时间的变化趋势从增加到减小再到明显减小,呈连续改变,而D的变化趋势从增加到减小再到增加,未呈连续改变,表明登陆TC的衰减变化趋势在不同登陆强度条件下存在不一致性.从显著性上看,只有TY档登陆TC的τ的变化满足90%置信区间显著下降趋势,表明登陆TC衰减趋势在不同登陆强度条件下存在不确定性.

青海省不同等级寒冷日数时空演变特征

利用1961—2019年青海省42个气象站逐日最低气温,分析不同等级寒冷日数时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)1961—2019年青海省寒冷日数随着等级降低而逐渐增加,主要以微寒日数为主;总寒冷日数整体呈减少趋势,显著快速减少的突变发生在1995年;总寒冷日数减少主要是由酷寒日数的减少引起;1997年气候突变后严寒、大寒、小寒、轻寒、微寒和总寒冷日数变化趋势减少,酷寒日数变化趋势增多,极寒和凉日数变化趋势减少与增加分布相当。(2)青海省寒冷日数表现出明显的空间差异,总寒冷日数随着海拔升高逐渐增加,等级较高的寒冷日数增减趋势较明显,随着寒冷等级的降低,增减趋势向低纬度和海拔相对较低的地区发展。(3)极寒、酷寒、严寒、轻寒、微寒和总寒冷日数随年平均气温升高而逐渐减少,大寒、小寒和凉日数随年平均气温升高而逐渐增加。(4)青海省除了严寒日数其余等级寒冷日数存在持续性,未来下降趋势将持续,但持续性强度不尽相同。

注意缺陷多动障碍儿童盐酸哌甲酯用药特征及趋势分析

目的:分析近5年来某儿童医院注意缺陷多动障碍(ADHD)患儿盐酸哌甲酯缓释片(MPH)处方特征及药物消耗趋势。方法:研究2018年至2022年ADHD患儿的MPH处方,对患儿的性别差异、年龄、单次取药量、就诊间隔及药物消耗模式进行分析。依据SPSS时间-序列模型对未来两年MPH的消耗量进行预测。结果:男女患儿的处方性别比由2018年的5.99下降为2022年的5.33;患儿平均就诊年龄约为10岁;2020年以后患儿就诊量大幅增加,2022年就诊人次是2018年的3.05倍;2022年MPH药物总DDDs是2018年的3.24倍。结论:近5年来苏州某儿童医院ADHD就诊量及MPH药物消耗量均呈上涨的趋势。