Financial Time Series Forecasting is an important tool to support both individual and organizational decisions. Periodic phenomena are very popular in econometrics. Many models have been built aiding capture of these ...Financial Time Series Forecasting is an important tool to support both individual and organizational decisions. Periodic phenomena are very popular in econometrics. Many models have been built aiding capture of these periodic trends as a way of enhancing forecasting of future events as well as guiding business and social activities. The nature of real-world systems </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> characterized by many uncertain fluctuations which makes prediction difficult. In situations when randomness is mixed with periodicity, prediction is even much harder. We therefore constructed an ANN Time Varying Garch model with both linear and non-linear attributes and specific for processes with fixed and random periodicity. To eliminate the need for time series linear component filtering</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> we incorporated the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and constructed Time Varying GARCH model on its disturbances. We developed the estimation procedure of the ANN time varying GARCH model parameters using non parametric techniques.展开更多
In economics and finance, minimising errors while building an abstract representation of financial assets plays a critical role due to its application in areas such as risk management, decision making and option prici...In economics and finance, minimising errors while building an abstract representation of financial assets plays a critical role due to its application in areas such as risk management, decision making and option pricing. Despite the many methods developed to handle this problem, modelling processes with fixed and random periodicity still remains a major challenge. Such methods include Artificial Neural networks (ANN), Fuzzy Inference system (FIS), GARCH models and their hybrids. This study seeks to extend literature of hybrid ANN-Time Varying GARCH model through simulations and application in modelling weather derivatives. The study models daily temperature of Kenya using ANN-Time Varying GARCH (1, 1), Time Lagged Feedforward neural network (TLNN) and periodic GARCH family models. Mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination R<sup>2</sup> were used to determine performance of the models under study. Results obtained show that the ANN-Time Varying GARCH model gives the best results.展开更多
文摘Financial Time Series Forecasting is an important tool to support both individual and organizational decisions. Periodic phenomena are very popular in econometrics. Many models have been built aiding capture of these periodic trends as a way of enhancing forecasting of future events as well as guiding business and social activities. The nature of real-world systems </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> characterized by many uncertain fluctuations which makes prediction difficult. In situations when randomness is mixed with periodicity, prediction is even much harder. We therefore constructed an ANN Time Varying Garch model with both linear and non-linear attributes and specific for processes with fixed and random periodicity. To eliminate the need for time series linear component filtering</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> we incorporated the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and constructed Time Varying GARCH model on its disturbances. We developed the estimation procedure of the ANN time varying GARCH model parameters using non parametric techniques.
文摘In economics and finance, minimising errors while building an abstract representation of financial assets plays a critical role due to its application in areas such as risk management, decision making and option pricing. Despite the many methods developed to handle this problem, modelling processes with fixed and random periodicity still remains a major challenge. Such methods include Artificial Neural networks (ANN), Fuzzy Inference system (FIS), GARCH models and their hybrids. This study seeks to extend literature of hybrid ANN-Time Varying GARCH model through simulations and application in modelling weather derivatives. The study models daily temperature of Kenya using ANN-Time Varying GARCH (1, 1), Time Lagged Feedforward neural network (TLNN) and periodic GARCH family models. Mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination R<sup>2</sup> were used to determine performance of the models under study. Results obtained show that the ANN-Time Varying GARCH model gives the best results.
