Simulation and forecast of the red tide's time series characteristics in China seas

Analyzing time series characteristics of red tide is the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation,which is very important to red tide prediction.There are trend comp onents and periodic components in annual time series of occurrence freque ncy and area of red tides,so Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model(GPECM)is used to extract these components.The fitting degree of occurrence frequency and area can reach 95.20% and 95.24%,respectively.The performance of GPECM is better than Gray Model,Fourier Series Extension Model,and Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Model in model stability.Consequently,it is used to forecast the occurrence frequency and area in 2020 and 2021,and results show that the annual frequency of red tides in 2020 and 2021 can rise to 39 and 41,respectively,and that the annual occurrence area of red tides can rise to 3168 km^(2),which is about 59% more than last year.In 2021,it can fall to 1901 km^(2).

Remote Sensing Monitoring of Tobacco Field Based on Phenological Characteristics and Time Series Image―A Case Study of Chengjiang County, Yunnan Province, China

Using three-phase remote sensing images of China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite 02B (CBERS02B) and Landsat-5 TM, tobacco field was extracted by the analysis of time series image based on the different phenological characteristics between tobacco and other crops. The spectral characteristics of tobacco and corn in luxuriant growth stage are very similar, which makes them difficult to be distinguished using a single-phase remote sensing image. Field film after tobacco seedlings transplanting can be used as significant sign to identify tobacco. Remote sensing interpre- tation map based on the fusion image of TM and CBERS02B's High-Resolution (HR) camera image was used as stan- dard reference material to evaluate the classification accuracy of Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) and Maximum Like- lihood Classifier (MLC) for time series image based on full samples test method. SAM has higher classification accu- racy and stability than MLC in dealing with time series image. The accuracy and Kappa of tobacco coverage extracted by SAM are 83.4% and 0.692 respectively, which can achieve the accuracy required by tobacco coverage measurement in a large area.

Anomalies identification of Earth’s rotation rate time series (2012-2017) for possible correlation with strong earthquakes occurrence

The analysis of the Earth’s rotation rate time series,from January 1,2012 till December 31,2017,is performed using two different time series analysis methods,both based on signal decomposition joined with forecasting approach.Anomalies in the time series are detected making the comparison between the raw signal and the forecasting one at the 95% confidence interval.The two methods show consistent results and the best is selected according to the evaluation of the prediction uncertainty.Both methods highlight correlations between detected anomalies in the Earth’s rotation rate time series and the world’s earthquakes occurrence with magnitude≥7 and/or number of events≥150 per day,within a time interval of ±10 days from each earthquake event.This study brings an innovation in the analysis of such time series and helps to better understand the extent of this relationship.

Time-Series Characteristics of Wind Power and Its Impact on Jilin Power Grid

With the rapid development of wind power, the large-scale wind power integration brings a new range of issues in dispatching operation. In order to gain a better grasp of the influence caused by wind power combined to the grid, the paper first establishes the impact characteristic indexes, and then analyzes the regularity of wind power time series in different spatial and temporal scales. At last, according to the analysis results, this paper assesses the impact of time-series characteristics of wind power on power grid, such as the frequency regulation, peak load regulation, which can provide the reference for wind power optimal dispatching of Jilin Power Grid.

HYDROLOGIC SERIES CHARACTERISTICSANALYSIS OF THE MAJOR RIVERS AROUNDTHE TAKLIMAKAN DESERT

This paper firstly analyses the hydrologic characteristics of the major rivers around the Taklimakan Desert with the method of mathematical statistics. Secondly, structure features of annual runoff series of these rivers are discussed both in the domain and in frequency domain with the method of time series analysis. Fain the analysis, it can be learnt that the nature quantity of water in the rivers in this area is generally steady and the annual runoff series of rivers is mostly independment stationary random sequence. Therefore, this paper can Provide scientific basis for runoff variation law research and reasonal exploitation and utilization of water resource in this area.

Research on Regional Crustal Deformation Characteristics Using Displacement Time Series Data of GNSS Reference Stations in Xinjiang

Using GNSS data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China( CMONOC),and PODAP software which was developed by the Satellite Navigation Institute of Wuhan University,the authors calculated data from 31 GNSS stations from July 1,2011 to December 31,2014,sampling at 30 seconds,and studied regional crustal deformation characteristics. Analysis results showed that in southwestern Xinjiang,the NS movement rate was influenced by Indian plate pushing. Under the blocking effect of the Tarim Basin,the EW movement rate was slightly smaller. In the north Tianshan area,the vertical dimension movement rate was quite different,which shows as a high gradient zone in the combination area between the basin and the mountain. With regards to regional overall characteristics,the authors considered that the intersection region from south Tianshan and Kunlun Mountains was prone to strong earthquakes, especially moderate-strong earthquakes,even more than M ≥ 7. 0 earthquakes. Middle of North Tianshan was the turning point of the vertical movement rate around Bayanbulak,and was also the high gradient zone of vertical movement. The area is also prone to strong earthquakes in the future.

A Study on the Early Warning Time of Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

The paper collects the records by the Fujian Digital Seismic Network of 40 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan with M_S≥5.0 from 1999 to 2013,analyzes the seismic phase(Pn,Sn phase)characteristics and travel-time rules,determines travel-time models and develops a seismic phase travel-time equation based on the two-step fitting algorithm.With the deduction of processing time and network delay time,this method can provide an accurate estimation of early warning time of Taiwan earthquakes for the Fujian region,and has been officially employed in the earthquake early warning system of Fujian Province.

Study of the effects on GPS coordinate time series caused by higher-order ionospheric corrections calculated using the DIPOLE model

As one of the main error sources in high-precision Global Positioning System （GPS） data processing, higher-order ionospheric （HOI） delays cause significant effects on coordinate time series that cannot be ignored in analyses of long time series. Typically two geomagnetic models, DIPOLE model and Inter- national Geomagnetic Reference Field （IGRF） model, are used for calculating HOI corrections. This paper investigates the effects of HOI correction caused by the DIPOLE model on coordinate time series. GPS data from 104 globally distributed International GNSS Service （IGS） stations spanning from January, 1999 to December, 2003 were reprocessed following up-to-date processing strategies utilizing GAMIT and GLOBK software. Two coordinate time series solutions before and after applying HOI corrections using the DIPOLE model were derived for studying the effects in terms of seasonal variations and noise amplitudes. The results show that after applying the HOI corrections calculated with DIPOLE, the noise amplitudes of the coordinate time series increased, especially in the north and east directions, and the increased amplitudes of the flicker noise were larger than those of the white noise. Furthermore, spurious periodic signals that were probably introduced by the HOI corrections from the DIPOLE model were also found. Moreover, an apparent increase was confirmed for the power spectra of most of the stations, especially in the north direction, and the amplitudes of both the annual and semi-annual signals also increased in the north and east directions. It can be inferred that the quality of the external data sources such as the geomagnetic model might be the key factors that lead to the above results. The results also suggest that we should be very careful when the DIPOLE model is used for HOI corrections.

Relationship Between Urban Road Traffic Characteristics and Road Grade Based on a Time Series Clustering Model： A Case Study in Nanjing, China

With the increasing number of vehicles in large-and medium-sized cities challenges in urban traffic management, control, and road planning are being faced. Taxi GPS trajectory data is a novel data source that can be used to study the potential dynamic traffic characteristics of urban roads, and thus identify locations that show a notable lack of road planning. Considering that road traffic characteristics on their own are insufficient for a comprehensive understanding of urban traffic, we develop a road traffic characteristic time series clustering model to analyze the relationship between urban road traffic characteristics and road grade based on existing taxi trajectory data. We select the main urban area of Nanjing as our study area and use the taxi trajectory data of a single month for evaluating our method. The experiments show that the clustering model exhibit good performance and can be successfully used for road traffic characteristic classification. Moreover, we analyze the correlation between traffic characteristics and road grade to identify road segments with planning designs that do not match the actual traffic demands.

PREDICTION TECHNIQUES OF CHAOTIC TIME SERIES AND ITS APPLICATIONS AT LOW NOISE LEVEL

The paper not only studies the noise reduction methods of chaotic time series with noise and its reconstruction techniques, but also discusses prediction techniques of chaotic time series and its applications based on chaotic data noise reduction. In the paper, we first decompose the phase space of chaotic time series to range space and null noise space. Secondly we restructure original chaotic time series in range space. Lastly on the basis of the above, we establish order of the nonlinear model and make use of the nonlinear model to predict some research. The result indicates that the nonlinear model has very strong ability of approximation function, and Chaos predict method has certain tutorial significance to the practical problems.

Analysis of Anomalous Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the September 16^th,2019 Zhangye MS5.0 Earthquake,Gansu,China

To study the crustal movement in the vicinity of the epicenter before the Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake in 2019, the characteristics of crustal deformation before the earthquake are discussed through the GPS velocity field analysis based on the CMONOC data observed from GPS. The baseline time series between two continuous GPS stations and the strain time series of an area among several stations are analyzed in the epicenter area. The resulting time series of baseline azimuth around the epicenter reflects that the energy of the fault in the northern margin of Qilian Mountain is accumulated continuously before 2017. Besides,the movement trend of azimuth slows down after 2017,indicating the stress accumulation on both sides of the seismogenic fault zone has reached a certain degree. The first shear strain and EWdirection linear strain in the epicentral area of the Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake remain steady after 2017,and the surface strain rate decreases gradually after 2016. It is illustrated that there is an obvious deformation loss at the epicentral region three years before the earthquake,indicating that a certain degree of strain energy is accumulated in this area before the earthquake.

Analysis of Abnormal Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the Menyuan MS6.4 Earthquake by GPS Continuous Data

In order to study the characteristics of crustal deformation around the epicenter before the 2016 M_S6. 4 Menyuan earthquake,the GPS continuous stations of the period from 2010 to 2016 were selected according to the observation data of the tectonic environment monitoring network in Chinese Mainland. The deformation characteristics of the crust before the earthquake were discussed through inter-station baseline time series analysis and the strain time series analysis in the epicentral region. The results show that a trend turn of the baseline movement state around the epicenter region occurred after 2014,and the movement after 2014 reflects an obvious decreasing trend of compressional deformation.During this period,the stress field energy was in a certain accumulation state. Since the beginning of 2014,the EW-component linear strain and surface strain rate weakened gradually before the earthquake. It shows that there was an obvious deformation deficit at the epicentral area in the past two years,which indicates that the region accumulated a high degree of strain energy before the earthquake. Therefore,there was a significant background change in the area before the earthquake. The results of the study can provide basic research data for understanding the seismogenic process and mechanism of this earthquake.

Piecewise linear representation of time series based on mean trend in sliding window

Seismic data show some important characteristics, such as big volume and strong timeliness. Specific to the time series data of earthquake precursory observations, a piecewise linear representation based on the sliding window mean value （PLR_MTSW） algorithm is proposed. With this algorithm, the mutation points can be identified accurately according to the rate Of mean value change, while the main features of time series are maintained well. This algorithm can also smooth the noise and improve the compression accuracy with sliding window. Meanwhile the local extreme points can be identified effectively according to the change of mean value trend within window.

Characteristics of satellite-gravity variations in the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake

To study the characteristics of gravity variations in and near the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake,we used the geopotential-field models based on monthly data of the RI.~5 GRACE satellite to calculate the gravity changes. Here we present the patterns of annually cumulative variation, differentiatial variation and secular trend, as well as the continuous time-series at 4 characteristic sites during 2004 -2012. The result shows that the anomalous positive-to-negative transition zone, in which the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was located, did not show any new gravity change before the Lushan earthquake, though located in the same zone.

CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTIONS OF BILINEAR TIME SERIES MODEL

Bilinear time series models are of importance to nonlinear time seriesanalysis.In this paper,the autocovariance function and the relation between linearand general bilinear time series models are derived.With the help of Volterra seriesexpansion,the impulse response function and frequency characteristic function of thegeneral bilinear time series model are also derived.

Time derivative of earthquake acceleration

Unlike acceleration, velocity, and displacement, the time derivative ofacceleration (TDoA) of ground motion has not been extensively studied. In this paper, the basiccharacteristics of TDoA are evaluated based on records from the 1999 Chi-Chi, earthquake (Mw 7.6)and one of its aftershocks (Mw 6.2). It is found that the maximum TDoA at a free-field station wasover 31,200 cm/s3 (31.8 g/s); and the duration of 'strong' TDoA, between the first and the last timepoints exceeding 2,000 cm/s3 (2 g/s), was almost one minute near the epicenter area. Since groundTDoA sensors are not commonly available, the time series are calculated by direct numericaldifferentiation of acceleration time series. Relative error analysis shows that the error isnon-transitive and total error is within 4%. The density function of TDoA amplitude, frequencycontent and spatial distribution of peak ground jerk (PGJ) are evaluated. The study also includesexamination of some TDoA responses from a seven-story building and comparison of ground TDoA withthe limit TDoA used in the transportation industry for ride comfort. Some potential impacts of TDoAon humans have also been reviewed.

GPS measured static and kinematic offsets at near and far field of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

The Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that hit the mainland Japan on 11 th March, 2011 had resulted a devastating Tsunami due to an active thrusting between the Pacific and the North American Plates. Static and kinematic offsets at the offshore epicentre of the Mw 9.0 event remain unanswered and being investigated along with their near and far field limiting distances from the epicentre. Accordingly, offset measurements from 60 continuously operating IGS and GEONET GNSS stations were radially classified from the epicentre and interpreted with analytical models to find their linear offset decay rates. Co-and post-seismic static positional anomaly offsets of sixty days show almost all near field stations had strong or appreciable eastward or south eastward static shifts. Near stations(<250 km) showed both kinematic and static offsets. GEONET station ’0175’ showed maximum resultant static offset of-4.5 m, which diminishes approximately 1-2 cm at far sites like SMST and AIRA. Characteristic decay duration(’b’) of the mean kinematic co-seismic shift(’a’)of near field stations was 17.28 s during earthquake hours with an EW component shift >1.5 m. Spatial models of projected N-S static and kinematic offsets show their asymmetrical distributions around the epicentre with maximum model offset of-1.84 m displaced towards south at-45 km north of the epicentre. The Tohoku-Oki earthquake produced a resultant kinematic offset of-10.2 m towards East at its offshore epicentre;while the estimated near field static offset is ~9.82 m. However, both estimates are bigger than double the resultant offset measured value(~4.3 m) in the Japanese mainland using GPS. The difference in the kinematic and static near field offsets highlight that the near surface had elastic or in-elastic kinematic strain dissipation as against the lithospheric level viscoelastic static response, which resulted rapid kinematic strain release(1.12 cm/km)within the limiting radius of ~220 km from the Tohoku-Oki epicentre.

Processes of the displacement field change of the 2009 April 6 M_W6.3 L'Aquila earthquake using persistent scatterer and small baseline methods

Using a time series method that combines both the persistent scatterer and small baseline approaches, we analyzed 9 scenes Envisat ASAR data over the L＇Aquila earthquake, and obtained a Shocke＇s displacement field and its evolution processes. The results show that： （1） Envisat ASAR clearly detected the whole processes of displacement field of the L＇Aquila earthquake, and distinct variations at different stages of the displacement field. （2） Preseismic creep displacement → displacement mutation when faulting → constantly slowed down after the earthquake. （3） The area of the strongest deformation and ground rupture was a low-lying oval depression region to the southeast. Surface faulting within a zone of about 22 km× 14 km, with an orientation of 135°, occurred along the NW-striking and SW-dipping Paganica-S. Demetrio normal fault. （4） In analyzing an area of about 54 km x 59 km, bounded by north-south axis to the epicenter, the displacement field has significant characteristics of a watershed： westward of the epicenter shows uplift with maximum of 130 mm in line-of-sight （LOS）, and east of the epicenter was a region with 220 mm of maximum subsidence in the LOS, concentrating on the rupture zone, the majority of which formed in the course of faulting and subsequence.

Long aseismic slip duration of the 2006 Java tsunami earthquake based on GPS data

The Java earthquake occurred on July 17, 2006 with magnitude 7.8 associated to the subduction process of Indo-Australian plate and Sundaland block off southwestern coast of Java. We present postseismic deformation parameters of the 2006 Java earthquake analyzed using campaign GPS observation from 2006 to 2008 and continuous observation from 2007 to 2014. We use an analytical approach of logarithmic and exponential functions to model these GPS data. We find that the decay time in the order of hundreds of days after the mainshock as observed by 8 years＇ data after the mainshock for magnitude 7 earthquake is longer than a general megathrust earthquake event. Our findings suggest that the 2006 Java earthquake which is considered as ＂tsunami earthquake＂ most probably occurred in the region that has low rigidity and tends to continuously slip for long time periods.

Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)is the most prominent mode of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere.Because of the close relationship between the NAO and regional climate in Eurasia,North Atlantic,and North America,improving the prediction skill for the NAO has attracted much attention.Previous studies that focused on the predictability of the NAO were often based upon simulations by climate models.In this study,the authors took advantage of Slow Feature Analysis to extract information on the driving forces from daily NAO index and introduced it into phase-space reconstruction.By computing the largest Lyapunov exponent,the authors found that the predictability of daily NAO index shows a significant increase when its driving force signal is considered.Furthermore,the authors conducted a short-term prediction for the NAO by using a global prediction model for chaotic time series that incorporated the driving-force information.Results showed that the prediction skill for the NAO can be largely increased.In addition,results from wavelet analysis suggested that the driving-force signal of the NAO is associated with three basic drivers:the annual cycle(1.02 yr),the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)(2.44 yr);and the solar cycle(11.6 yr),which indicates the critical roles of the QBO and solar activities in the predictability of the NAO.