TIME INCONSISTENCY AND REPUTATION IN MONETARY POLICY: A STRATEGIC MODELLING IN CONTINUOUS TIME

This article develops a model to examine the equilibrium behavior of the time inconsistency problem in a continuous time economy with stochastic and endogenized distortion. First, the authors introduce the notion of sequentially rational equilibrium, and show that the time inconsistency problem may be solved with trigger reputation strategies for stochastic setting. The conditions for the existence of sequentially rational equilibrium are provided. Then, the concept of sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium is introduced. The authors compare the relative stability between the cooperative behavior and uncooperative behavior, and show that the cooperative equilibrium in this monetary policy game is a sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium and the uncooperative equilibrium is sequentially rational stochastically unstable equilibrium. In the long run, the zero inflation monetary policies are inherently more stable than the discretion rules, and once established, they tend to persist for longer periods of the time.

Equilibrium dividend strategies in the dual model with a random time horizon

This paper investigates the dividend problem with non-exponential discounting in a dual model.We assume that the dividends can only be paid at a bounded rate and that the surplus process is killed by an exponential random variable.Since the non-exponential discount function leads to a time inconsistent control problem,we study the equilibrium HJB-equation and give the associated verification theorem.For the case of a mixture of exponential discount functions and exponential gains,we obtain the explicit equilibrium dividend strategy and the corresponding equilibrium value function.Besides,numerical examples are shown to illustrate our results.

Time-Inconsistent Stochastic LQ Problem with Regime Switching

This paper investigates a time-inconsistent stochastic linear-quadratic problem with regime switching that is characterized via a finite-state Markov chain.Open-loop equilibrium control is studied in this paper whose existence is characterized via Markov-chain-modulated forward-backward stochastic difference equations and generalized Riccati-like equations with jumps.

The term structure of Sharpe ratios and arbitragefree asset pricing in continuous time

Motivated by financial and empirical arguments and in order to introduce a more flexible methodology of pricing,we provide a new approach to asset pricing based on Backward Volterra equations.The approach relies on an arbitrage-free and incomplete market setting in continuous time by choosing non-unique pricing measures depending either on the time of evaluation or on the maturity of payoffs.We show that in the latter case the dynamics can be captured by a time-delayed backward stochastic Volterra integral equation here introduced which,to the best of our knowledge,has not yet been studied.We then prove an existence and uniqueness result for time-delayed backward stochastic Volterra integral equations.Finally,we present a Lucas-type consumption-based asset pricing model that justifies the emergence of stochastic discount factors matching the term structure of Sharpe ratios.

Excess Liquidity,Housing Price Booms and Policy Challenges in China

Incorporating asymmetric cost and benefit of supplying excess liquidity into an otherwise standard time inconsistency model this paper offers an explanation of the excess liquidity and housing price booms recently experienced in China. We find that the central bank＇s incentive to stimulate eeonomie growth with excess liquidity fuels real estate prices and accelerates inflation bias. Therefore, the central bank should free itself from the pressure to achieve an economic growth rate higher than the potential level and assign an appropriate weight to the real estate price fluctuations in the central bank＇s objective function, so that the central bank ＂s policy of stimulating economic growth with excess liquidity can be constrained.

Survey on Multi-period Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Model

Due to the non-separability of the variance term,the dynamic mean-variance(MV)portfolio optimization problem is inherently difficult to solve by dynamic programming.Li and Ng(Math Finance 10(3):387-406,2000)and Zhou and Li(Appl Math Optim 42(1):19-33,2000)develop the pre-committed optimal policy for such a problem using the embedding method.Following this line of research,researchers have extensively studied the MV portfolio selection model through the inclusion of more practical investment constraints,realistic market assumptions and various financial applications.As the principle of optimality no longer holds,the pre-committed policy suffers from the time-inconsistent issue,i.e.,the optimal policy computed at the intermediate time t is not consistent with the optimal policy calculated at any time before time t.The time inconsistency of the dynamic MV model has become an important yet challenging research topic.This paper mainly focuses on the multi-period mean–variance(MMV)portfolio optimization problem,reviews the essential extensions and highlights the critical development of time-consistent policies.