The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta re...The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Using daily or 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) data with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the modified Chowdury Indian Meteorological Department (MCIMD) models were adopted to downscale the time series data. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE) test showed a statistically significant trend for Uyo and Benin, while Port Harcourt and Warri showed mild trends. The Sen’s Slope magnitude and variation rate were 21.6, 10.8, 6.00 and 4.4 mm/decade, respectively. The trend change-point analysis showed the initial rainfall change-point dates as 2002, 2005, 1988, and 2000 for Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri, respectively. These prove positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in the study area. Erosion and flood control facilities analysis and design in the Niger Delta will require the application of Non-stationary IDF modelling.展开更多
The Qilian Mountains(QM)possess a delicate vegetation ecosystem,amplifying the evident response of vegetation phenology to climate change.The relationship between changes in vegetation growth and climate remains compl...The Qilian Mountains(QM)possess a delicate vegetation ecosystem,amplifying the evident response of vegetation phenology to climate change.The relationship between changes in vegetation growth and climate remains complex.To this end,we used MODIS NDVI data to extract the phenological parameters of the vegetation including meadow(MDW),grassland(GSD),and alpine vegetation(ALV))in the QM from 2002 to 2021.Then,we employed path analysis to reveal the direct and indirect impacts of seasonal climate change on vegetation phenology.Additionally,we decomposed the vegetation phenology in a time series using the trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,and Trend Seasonal components model(TBATS).The findings showed a distinct pattern in the vegetation phenology of the QM,characterized by a progressive shift towards an earlier start of the growing season(SOS),a delayed end of the growing season(EOS),and an extended length of the growing season(LOS).The growth cycle of MDW,GSD,and ALV in the QM species is clearly defined.The SOS for MDW and GSD occurred earlier,mainly between late April and August,while the SOS for ALVs occurred between mid-May and mid-August,a one-month delay compared to the other vegetation.The EOS in MDW and GSD were concentrated between late August and April and early September and early January,respectively.Vegetation phenology exhibits distinct responses to seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns.The advancement and delay of SOS were mainly influenced by the direct effect of spring temperatures and precipitation,which affected 19.59%and 22.17%of the study area,respectively.The advancement and delay of EOS were mainly influenced by the direct effect of fall temperatures and precipitation,which affected 30.18%and 21.17%of the area,respectively.On the contrary,the direct effects of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter on vegetation phenology seem less noticeable and were mainly influenced by indirect effects.The indirect effect of winter precipitation is the main factor affecting the advance or delay of SOS,and the area proportions were 16.29%and 23.42%,respectively.The indirect effects of fall temperatures and precipitation were the main factors affecting the delay and advancement of EOS,respectively,with an area share of 15.80%and 21.60%.This study provides valuable insight into the relationship between vegetation phenology and climate change,which can be of great practical value for the ecological protection of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as well as for the development of GSD ecological animal husbandry in the QM alpine pastoral area.展开更多
Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya （Tibetan plateau） ice core （GIC） 5180, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENS...Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya （Tibetan plateau） ice core （GIC） 5180, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals, are decomposed into two hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies respectively, and then the running t-test is used to reanalyse the data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC 5180 evolved with a quasi-period of 7-9 years, and the abrupt climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global. The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer （IT） is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is relatively large.展开更多
The current standard for measuring tumor response using X-ray, CT and MRI is based on the response evaluation criterion in solid tumors (RECIST) which, while providing simplifications over previous (WHO) 2-D methods, ...The current standard for measuring tumor response using X-ray, CT and MRI is based on the response evaluation criterion in solid tumors (RECIST) which, while providing simplifications over previous (WHO) 2-D methods, stipulate four response categories: CR (complete response), PR (partial response), PD (progressive disease), SD (stable disease) based purely on percentage changes without consideration of any measurement uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a statistical procedure for tumor response assessment based on uncertainty measures of radiologist’s measurement data. We present several variance estimation methods using time series methods and empirical Bayes methods when a small number of serial observations are available on each member of a group of subjects. We use a publically available database which contains a set of over 100 CT scan images on 23 patients with annotated RECIST measurements by two radiologist readers. We show that despite of bias in each individual reader’s measurements, statistical decisions on tumor change can be made on each individual subject. The consistency of the two readers can be established based on the intra-reader change assessments. Our proposal compares favorably with the RECIST standard protocol, raising the hope that, statistically sound decision on change analysis can be made in future based on careful variability and measurement uncertainty analysis.展开更多
水分利用效率(Water Use Efficiency,WUE)是深入理解生态系统碳、水循环及两者耦合关系的重要指标,然而我国重要森林类型之一的竹林的WUE时空格局及其驱动机制研究不足。通过MODIS净初级生产力(NPP)和蒸散(ET)数据得到竹林区WUE,采用线...水分利用效率(Water Use Efficiency,WUE)是深入理解生态系统碳、水循环及两者耦合关系的重要指标,然而我国重要森林类型之一的竹林的WUE时空格局及其驱动机制研究不足。通过MODIS净初级生产力(NPP)和蒸散(ET)数据得到竹林区WUE,采用线性趋势法计算WUE年际变化率表征变化趋势,并应用地理加权回归(GWR)模型分析了WUE与气候和地形等10个驱动因子的关系,探究了中国南方竹林区近20年间(2000—2019)WUE驱动机制。结果表明:(1)2000—2019年中国南方竹林区WUE多年均值为0.89 gC m^(-2)mm^(-1),呈显著下降趋势,下降速率为0.0028 gC m^(-2)mm^(-1)a-1,ET上升速度大于NPP上升速度是造成WUE下降的主要原因;WUE呈南高北低的空间分布格局,83.5%区域的WUE呈下降趋势。(2)基于GWR模型的WUE驱动力分析发现,WUE变化最强的驱动因子是CO_(2)浓度和年降水量,而海拔、坡度等地形因子的驱动作用较弱,人类活动因子在大部分区域对WUE存在较小的正向驱动作用。明晰了我国竹林区近20年间对气候与环境变化的响应规律,为制定竹林适应性管理措施,并更好地发挥竹林在缓解气候变化方面的作用提供科学依据。展开更多
We investigated the responses of cropland phenophases to changes of agricultural thermal conditions in Northeast China using the SPOT-VGT Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） ten-day-composed time-series da...We investigated the responses of cropland phenophases to changes of agricultural thermal conditions in Northeast China using the SPOT-VGT Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） ten-day-composed time-series data, observed crop phenophases and the climate data collected from 1990 to 2010. First, the phenological parameters, such as the dates of onset-of-growth, peak-of-growth and end-of-growth as well as the length of the growing season, were extracted from the smoothed NVDI time-series dataset and showed an obvious correlation with the observed crop phenophases, including the stages of seedling, heading, maturity and the length of the growth period. Secondly, the spatio-temporal trends of the major thermal conditions （the first date of ≥10℃, the first frost date, the length of the temperature-allowing growth period and the accumulated temperature （AT） of ≥10℃） in Northeast China were illustrated and analyzed over the past 20 years. Thirdly, we focused on the responses of cropland phenophases to the thermal conditions changes. The results showed that the onset-of-growth date had an obvious positive correlation with the first date of ≥10℃ （P 0.01）, especially in the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle and eastern parts of Jilin Province. For the extracted length of growing season and the observed growth period, notable correlations were found in almost same regions （P 0.05）. However, there was no obvious correlation between the end-of-growth date and the first frost date in the study area. Opposite correlations were observed between the length of the growing season and the AT of ≥10℃. In the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle part of Jilin and Liaoning Provinces, the positive correlation coefficients were higher than the critical value of 0.05, whereas the negative correlation coefficients reached a level of 0.55 （P 0.05） in the middle and southern parts of Heilongjiang Province and some parts of the Sanjiang Plain. This finding indicated that the crop growth periods were shortened because of the elevated temperature; in contrast, the extended growth period usually meant a crop transformation from early- or middle-maturing varieties into middle or late ones.展开更多
文摘The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Using daily or 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) data with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the modified Chowdury Indian Meteorological Department (MCIMD) models were adopted to downscale the time series data. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE) test showed a statistically significant trend for Uyo and Benin, while Port Harcourt and Warri showed mild trends. The Sen’s Slope magnitude and variation rate were 21.6, 10.8, 6.00 and 4.4 mm/decade, respectively. The trend change-point analysis showed the initial rainfall change-point dates as 2002, 2005, 1988, and 2000 for Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri, respectively. These prove positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in the study area. Erosion and flood control facilities analysis and design in the Niger Delta will require the application of Non-stationary IDF modelling.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(42261026,41971094,and 42161025)Gansu Science and Technology Research Project(22ZD6FA005)+1 种基金Higher Education Innovation Foundation of Education Department of Gansu Province(2022A-041)the open foundation of Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone(XJYS0907-2023-01).
文摘The Qilian Mountains(QM)possess a delicate vegetation ecosystem,amplifying the evident response of vegetation phenology to climate change.The relationship between changes in vegetation growth and climate remains complex.To this end,we used MODIS NDVI data to extract the phenological parameters of the vegetation including meadow(MDW),grassland(GSD),and alpine vegetation(ALV))in the QM from 2002 to 2021.Then,we employed path analysis to reveal the direct and indirect impacts of seasonal climate change on vegetation phenology.Additionally,we decomposed the vegetation phenology in a time series using the trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,and Trend Seasonal components model(TBATS).The findings showed a distinct pattern in the vegetation phenology of the QM,characterized by a progressive shift towards an earlier start of the growing season(SOS),a delayed end of the growing season(EOS),and an extended length of the growing season(LOS).The growth cycle of MDW,GSD,and ALV in the QM species is clearly defined.The SOS for MDW and GSD occurred earlier,mainly between late April and August,while the SOS for ALVs occurred between mid-May and mid-August,a one-month delay compared to the other vegetation.The EOS in MDW and GSD were concentrated between late August and April and early September and early January,respectively.Vegetation phenology exhibits distinct responses to seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns.The advancement and delay of SOS were mainly influenced by the direct effect of spring temperatures and precipitation,which affected 19.59%and 22.17%of the study area,respectively.The advancement and delay of EOS were mainly influenced by the direct effect of fall temperatures and precipitation,which affected 30.18%and 21.17%of the area,respectively.On the contrary,the direct effects of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter on vegetation phenology seem less noticeable and were mainly influenced by indirect effects.The indirect effect of winter precipitation is the main factor affecting the advance or delay of SOS,and the area proportions were 16.29%and 23.42%,respectively.The indirect effects of fall temperatures and precipitation were the main factors affecting the delay and advancement of EOS,respectively,with an area share of 15.80%and 21.60%.This study provides valuable insight into the relationship between vegetation phenology and climate change,which can be of great practical value for the ecological protection of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as well as for the development of GSD ecological animal husbandry in the QM alpine pastoral area.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant No 40675044)the State Key Development Program for Basic Research (Grant No 2006CB400503)
文摘Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya （Tibetan plateau） ice core （GIC） 5180, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals, are decomposed into two hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies respectively, and then the running t-test is used to reanalyse the data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC 5180 evolved with a quasi-period of 7-9 years, and the abrupt climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global. The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer （IT） is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is relatively large.
文摘The current standard for measuring tumor response using X-ray, CT and MRI is based on the response evaluation criterion in solid tumors (RECIST) which, while providing simplifications over previous (WHO) 2-D methods, stipulate four response categories: CR (complete response), PR (partial response), PD (progressive disease), SD (stable disease) based purely on percentage changes without consideration of any measurement uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a statistical procedure for tumor response assessment based on uncertainty measures of radiologist’s measurement data. We present several variance estimation methods using time series methods and empirical Bayes methods when a small number of serial observations are available on each member of a group of subjects. We use a publically available database which contains a set of over 100 CT scan images on 23 patients with annotated RECIST measurements by two radiologist readers. We show that despite of bias in each individual reader’s measurements, statistical decisions on tumor change can be made on each individual subject. The consistency of the two readers can be established based on the intra-reader change assessments. Our proposal compares favorably with the RECIST standard protocol, raising the hope that, statistically sound decision on change analysis can be made in future based on careful variability and measurement uncertainty analysis.
基金National Basic Program of China （973 Program）,No.2010CB951502 National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.40930101,No.41001381 and No.41001246 Ministry of Finance of China through Non-profit National Research Institute,No.IARRP-2011-015
文摘We investigated the responses of cropland phenophases to changes of agricultural thermal conditions in Northeast China using the SPOT-VGT Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） ten-day-composed time-series data, observed crop phenophases and the climate data collected from 1990 to 2010. First, the phenological parameters, such as the dates of onset-of-growth, peak-of-growth and end-of-growth as well as the length of the growing season, were extracted from the smoothed NVDI time-series dataset and showed an obvious correlation with the observed crop phenophases, including the stages of seedling, heading, maturity and the length of the growth period. Secondly, the spatio-temporal trends of the major thermal conditions （the first date of ≥10℃, the first frost date, the length of the temperature-allowing growth period and the accumulated temperature （AT） of ≥10℃） in Northeast China were illustrated and analyzed over the past 20 years. Thirdly, we focused on the responses of cropland phenophases to the thermal conditions changes. The results showed that the onset-of-growth date had an obvious positive correlation with the first date of ≥10℃ （P 0.01）, especially in the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle and eastern parts of Jilin Province. For the extracted length of growing season and the observed growth period, notable correlations were found in almost same regions （P 0.05）. However, there was no obvious correlation between the end-of-growth date and the first frost date in the study area. Opposite correlations were observed between the length of the growing season and the AT of ≥10℃. In the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle part of Jilin and Liaoning Provinces, the positive correlation coefficients were higher than the critical value of 0.05, whereas the negative correlation coefficients reached a level of 0.55 （P 0.05） in the middle and southern parts of Heilongjiang Province and some parts of the Sanjiang Plain. This finding indicated that the crop growth periods were shortened because of the elevated temperature; in contrast, the extended growth period usually meant a crop transformation from early- or middle-maturing varieties into middle or late ones.
