Marginal Distribution Plots for Proportional Hazards Models with Time-Dependent Covariates or Time-Varying Regression Coefficients

Given a sample of regression data from (Y, Z), a new diagnostic plotting method is proposed for checking the hypothesis H0: the data are from a given Cox model with the time-dependent covariates Z. It compares two estimates of the marginal distribution FY of Y. One is an estimate of the modified expression of FY under H0, based on a consistent estimate of the parameter under H0, and based on the baseline distribution of the data. The other is the Kaplan-Meier-estimator of FY, together with its confidence band. The new plot, called the marginal distribution plot, can be viewed as a test for testing H0. The main advantage of the test over the existing residual tests is in the case that the data do not satisfy any Cox model or the Cox model is mis-specified. Then the new test is still valid, but not the residual tests and the residual tests often make type II error with a very large probability.

Asymptotic Theory for Relative-Risk Models with Missing Time-Dependent Covariates

Relative-risk models are often used to characterize the relationship between survival time and time-dependent covariates. When the covariates are observed, the estimation and asymptotic theory for parameters of interest are available; challenges remain when missingness occurs. A popular approach at hand is to jointly model survival data and longitudinal data. This seems efficient, in making use of more information, but the rigorous theoretical studies have long been ignored. For both additive risk models and relative-risk models, we consider the missing data nonignorable. Under general regularity conditions, we prove asymptotic normality for the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators.

Modeling time-dependent mechanical behavior of hard rock considering excavation-induced damage and complex 3D stress states

To investigate the long-term stability of deep rocks,a three-dimensional(3D)time-dependent model that accounts for excavation-induced damage and complex stress state is developed.This model comprises three main components:a 3D viscoplastic isotropic constitutive relation that considers excavation damage and complex stress state,a quantitative relationship between critical irreversible deformation and complex stress state,and evolution characteristics of strength parameters.The proposed model is implemented in a self-developed numerical code,i.e.CASRock.The reliability of the model is validated through experiments.It is indicated that the time-dependent fracturing potential index(xTFPI)at a given time during the attenuation creep stage shows a negative correlation with the extent of excavationinduced damage.The time-dependent fracturing process of rock demonstrates a distinct interval effect of the intermediate principal stress,thereby highlighting the 3D stress-dependent characteristic of the model.Finally,the influence of excavation-induced damage and intermediate principal stress on the time-dependent fracturing characteristics of the surrounding rocks around the tunnel is discussed.

Impact of different interaction behavior on epidemic spreading in time-dependent social networks

We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwise/group interaction intensity are explored by extensive simulation and theoretical analysis.It is demonstrated that altering the group interaction proportion can either hinder or enhance the spread of epidemics,depending on the relative social intensity of group and pairwise interactions.As the group interaction proportion decreases,the impact of reducing group social intensity diminishes.The ratio of group and pairwise social intensity can affect the effect of group interaction proportion on the scale of infection.A weak heterogeneous activity distribution can raise the epidemic threshold,and reduce the scale of infection.These results benefit the design of epidemic control strategy.

A process-oriented approach for identifying potential landslides considering time-dependent behaviors beyond geomorphological features

Geomorphological features are commonly used to identify potential landslides.Nevertheless,overemphasis on these features could lead to misjudgment.This research proposes a process-oriented approach for potential landslide identification that considers time-dependent behaviors.The method integrates comprehensive remote sensing and geological analysis to qualitatively assess slope stability,and employs numerical analysis to quantitatively calculate aging stability.Specifically,a time-dependent stability calculation method for anticlinal slopes is developed and implemented in discrete element software,incorporating time-dependent mechanical and strength reduction calculations.By considering the time-dependent evolution of slopes,this method highlights the importance of both geomorphological features and time-dependent behaviors in landslide identification.This method has been applied to the Jiarishan slope(JRS)on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a case study.The results show that the JRS,despite having landslide geomorphology,is a stable slope,highlighting the risk of misjudgment when relying solely on geomorphological features.This work provides insights into the geomorphological characterization and evolution history of the JRS and offers valuable guidance for studying slopes with similar landslide geomorphology.Furthermore,the process-oriented method incorporating timedependent evolution provides a means to evaluate potential landslides,reducing misjudgment due to excessive reliance on geomorphological features.

A GENERALIZED SCALAR AUXILIARY VARIABLE METHOD FOR THE TIME-DEPENDENT GINZBURG-LANDAU EQUATIONS

This paper develops a generalized scalar auxiliary variable(SAV)method for the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equations.The backward Euler method is used for discretizing the temporal derivative of the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equations.In this method,the system is decoupled and linearized to avoid solving the non-linear equation at each step.The theoretical analysis proves that the generalized SAV method can preserve the maximum bound principle and energy stability,and this is confirmed by the numerical result,and also shows that the numerical algorithm is stable.

Thermomechanical Dynamics (TMD) and Bifurcation-Integration Solutions in Nonlinear Differential Equations with Time-Dependent Coefficients

The new independent solutions of the nonlinear differential equation with time-dependent coefficients (NDE-TC) are discussed, for the first time, by employing experimental device called a drinking bird whose simple back-and-forth motion develops into water drinking motion. The solution to a drinking bird equation of motion manifests itself the transition from thermodynamic equilibrium to nonequilibrium irreversible states. The independent solution signifying a nonequilibrium thermal state seems to be constructed as if two independent bifurcation solutions are synthesized, and so, the solution is tentatively termed as the bifurcation-integration solution. The bifurcation-integration solution expresses the transition from mechanical and thermodynamic equilibrium to a nonequilibrium irreversible state, which is explicitly shown by the nonlinear differential equation with time-dependent coefficients (NDE-TC). The analysis established a new theoretical approach to nonequilibrium irreversible states, thermomechanical dynamics (TMD). The TMD method enables one to obtain thermodynamically consistent and time-dependent progresses of thermodynamic quantities, by employing the bifurcation-integration solutions of NDE-TC. We hope that the basic properties of bifurcation-integration solutions will be studied and investigated further in mathematics, physics, chemistry and nonlinear sciences in general.

Time-dependent magnetometric resistivity anomalies of groundwater contamination: Synthetic results from computational hydro-geophysical modeling

We present a forward-modeling investigation of time-dependent ground magnetometric resistivity （MMR） anomalies associated with transient leachate transport in groundwater systems. Numerical geo-electrical models are constructed based on the hydrological simulation results of leachate plumes from a highly conceptualized landfill system and the resultant MMR responses are computed using a modified finite difference software MMR2DFD. Three transmitter configurations （i.e., single source, MMR-TE, and MMR-TM modes） and two hydrological models （i.e., uniform and faulted porous media） are considered. Our forward modeling results for the uniform porous medium indicates that the magnetic field components perpendicular to the dominant current flow contain the most information of the underground targets and the MMR-TE mode is an appropriate configuration for detecting contaminant plumes. The modeling experiments for the faulted porous medium also confirm that the MMR method is capable of mapping and monitoring the extent of contaminant plumes in aroundwater systems.

An integrated method of selecting environmental covariates for predictive soil depth mapping

Environmental covariates are the basis of predictive soil mapping.Their selection determines the performance of soil mapping to a great extent,especially in cases where the number of soil samples is limited but soil spatial heterogeneity is high.In this study,we proposed an integrated method to select environmental covariates for predictive soil depth mapping.First,candidate variables that may influence the development of soil depth were selected based on pedogenetic knowledge.Second,three conventional methods(Pearson correlation analysis(PsCA),generalized additive models(GAMs),and Random Forest(RF))were used to generate optimal combinations of environmental covariates.Finally,three optimal combinations were integrated to produce a final combination based on the importance and occurrence frequency of each environmental covariate.We tested this method for soil depth mapping in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China.A total of 129 soil sampling sites were collected using a representative sampling strategy,and RF and support vector machine(SVM)models were used to map soil depth.The results showed that compared to the set of environmental covariates selected by the three conventional selection methods,the set of environmental covariates selected by the proposed method achieved higher mapping accuracy.The combination from the proposed method obtained a root mean square error(RMSE)of 11.88 cm,which was 2.25–7.64 cm lower than the other methods,and an R^2 value of 0.76,which was 0.08–0.26 higher than the other methods.The results suggest that our method can be used as an alternative to the conventional methods for soil depth mapping and may also be effective for mapping other soil properties.

Numerical investigation into pillar failure induced by time-dependent skin degradation

This paper focuses on the instability mechanism of an isolated pillar, caused by time-dependent skin degradation and strength heterogeneity. The time-dependent skin degradation is simulated with a non-linear rheological model capable of simulating tertiary creep, whereby two different pillar failure cases are investigated. The first case is of an isolated pillar in a deep hard rock underground mine and subjected to high stresses. The results show that pillar degradation is limited to the regions near the surface or the skin until two months after ore extraction. Afterwards degradation starts to extend deeper into the pillar, eventually leaving a highly-stressed pillar core due to stress transfer from the failed skin.Rockburst potential indices show that the risk increases exponentially at the core as time goes by. It is then demonstrated that the progressive skin degradation cannot be simulated with conventional strain-softening model assuming brittle failure. The parametric study with respect to the degree of heterogeneity reveals that heterogeneity is key to the occurrence of progressive skin degradation. The second case investigated in this study is pillar failure taking place in a very long period. Such failure becomes significantly important when assessing the risk for ground subsidence caused by pillar collapse in an abandoned mine. The analysis results demonstrate that the employed non-linear rheological model can simulate gradual skin degradation taking place over several hundred years. The percentage of damage zone volume within the pillar is merely 1% after a lapse of one days and increases to 50% after one hundred years, indicating a high risk for pillar collapse in the long term. The vertical displacements within the pillar also indicate the risk of subsidence. The proposed method is suitable for evaluating the risk of ground surface subsidence above an abandoned mine.

THE FINITE DIFFERENCE STREAMLINE DIFFUSION METHODS FOR TIME-DEPENDENT CONVECTION-DIFFUSION EQUATIONS

In this paper, two finite difference streamline diffusion (FDSD) schemes for solving two-dimensional time-dependent convection-diffusion equations are constructed. Stability and optimal order error estimati-ions for considered schemes are derived in the norm stronger than L^2-norm.

Time-dependent safety of lining structures of circular tunnels in weak rock strata

Following tunnel excavation and lining completion,fractured surrounding rock deforms gradually over time;this results in a time-dependent evolution of the pressure applied to the lining structure by the surrounding rock.Thus,the safety of the tunnel lining in weak strata is strongly correlated with time.In this study,we developed an analytical method for determining the time-dependent pressure in the surrounding rock and lining structure of a circular tunnel under a hydrostatic stress field.Under the proposed method,the stress–strain relationship of the fractured surrounding rock is assumed to conform to that of the Burgers viscoelastic component,and the lining structure is assumed to be an elastomer.Based on these assumptions,the viscoelastic deformation of the surrounding rock,the elastic deformation of the lining structure,and the coordinated deformation between the surrounding rock and lining structure were derived.The proposed analytical method,which employs a time-dependent safety coefficient,was subsequently used to estimate the durability of the lining structure of the Foling Tunnel in China.The derived attenuation curve of the safety coefficient with respect to time can assist engineers in predicting the remaining viable life of the lining structure.Unlike existing analytical methods,the method derived in this study considers the time dependency of the interaction between the surrounding rock and tunnel lining;hence,it is more suitable for the evaluation of lining lifetime.

The characterization of the time-dependent nonlinear viscoelastic of an LDPE melt using a simple thixotropy model

A new simple thixotropy model was proposed in the present paper to characterize the thixotropy-loop experiments and the start-up experiment of an LDPE （PE-FSB23D0221Q200） melt. The thixotropy model is a combination of a viscoelastic-component and a postulated kinetics process of structure change, which is constituted in terms of the indirect microstructural approach usually adopted in the characterization of thixotropy. The descriptions of the thixotropy model on both the thixotropy-loop tests and the startup test show good agreement with the experimental values, indicating the good capability of the model in characterizing the time-dependent nonlinear viscoelastic. The stress overshoot phenomenon and the stress relaxation after cessation of the thixotropy loop test can be described well by the model, whereas both of the typical viscoelastic phenomena could not be described in our previous work with a variant Huang model.

Exact Wave Function of a Quantum Oscillator with Time-Dependent Frequency and Driving

The harmonic oscillator with time? dependent frequency and driving is studied by means of a new, simple method. By means of simple transformations of variables, the time dependent Schrdinger equation is first transformed into the time independent one. And then exact wave function is found in terms of solutions of the classical equation of motion of the oscillator.

Approximate solution to the time-dependent Kratzer plus screened Coulomb potential in the Feinberg–Horodecki equation

We obtain the quantized momentum eigenvalues Pn together with space-like coherent eigenstates for the space-like counterpart of the Schr¨odinger equation,the Feinberg–Horodecki equation,with a combined Kratzer potential plus screened coulomb potential which is constructed by temporal counterpart of the spatial form of these potentials.The present work is illustrated with two special cases of the general form:the time-dependent modified Kratzer potential and the time-dependent screened Coulomb potential.

Sample size adaptive strategy for time-dependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulation

When multiphysics coupling calculations contain time-dependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, these simulations often account for the largest part of the calculation time, which is insufferable in certain important cases. This study proposes an adaptive strategy for automatically adjusting the sample size to fulfil more reasonable simulations. This is realized based on an extension of the Shannon entropy concept and is essentially different from the popular methods in timeindependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, such as controlling the sample size according to the relative error of a target tally or by experience. The results of the two models show that this strategy can yield almost similar results while significantly reducing the calculation time. Considering the efficiency, the sample size should not be increased blindly if the efficiency cannot be enhanced further. The strategy proposed herein satisfies this requirement.

Time-dependent behaviors and volumetric recovery phenomenon of sandstone under triaxial loading and unloading

The time-dependent behaviors of coal and rocks were easily ignored. Besides, “three-stage” triaxial loading and unloading mechanics tests of sandstone were conducted based on the idea of the initial high in-situ stress state recovery according to the full-life cycle evolution characteristics of surrounding rocks in deep mines(pre-excavation,excavation and post-excavation). The time-dependent stress-strain curves of sandstone were obtained. Meanwhile, the deformation and strength fitting relationships with time of sandstone were also built. Furthermore, the dilatancy and volumetric recovery mechanical mechanisms of sandstone were revealed. The results showed that: 1) There were significant time-dependent evolution characteristics on the deformation and strength of sandstone;2) There were significant correlations among the internal friction angle, cohesion and the simulated depths;3) Volumetric recovery phenomenon of sandstone was observed for the first time, which mainly occurred at the simulated depth of 2000 m. The above research conclusions could provide a certain theoretical basis for the stability control of surrounding rocks in deep mines.

Time-dependent Diffusion Coefficient and Conventional Diffusion Constant of Nanoparticles in Polymer Melts by Mode-coupling Theory

Time-dependent diffusion coefficient and conventional diffusion constant are calculated and analyzed to study diffusion of nanoparticles in polymer melts. A generalized Langevin equa- tion is adopted to describe the diffusion dynamics. Mode-coupling theory is employed to calculate the memory kernel of friction. For simplicity, only microscopic terms arising from binary collision and coupling to the solvent density fluctuation are included in the formalism. The equilibrium structural information functions of the polymer nanocomposites required by mode-coupling theory are calculated on the basis of polymer reference interaction site model with Percus-Yevick closure. The effect of nanoparticle size and that of the polymer size are clarified explicitly. The structural functions, the friction kernel, as well as the diffusion coefficient show a rich variety with varying nanoparticle radius and polymer chain length. We find that for small nanoparticles or short chain polymers, the characteristic short time non-Markov diffusion dynamics becomes more prominent, and the diffusion coefficient takes longer time to approach asymptotically the conventional diffusion constant. This constant due to the microscopic contributions will decrease with the increase of nanoparticle size, while increase with polymer size. Furthermore, our result of diffusion constant from mode- coupling theory is compared with the value predicted from the Stokes-Einstein relation. It shows that the microscopic contributions to the diffusion constant are dominant for small nanoparticles or long chain polymers. Inversely, when nanonparticle is big, or polymer chain is short, the hydrodynamic contribution might play a significant role.

Determination of safe mud window considering time-dependent variations of temperature and pore pressure:Analytical and numerical approaches

Wellbore stability is a key to have a successful drilling operation.Induced stresses are the main factors affecting wellbore instability and associated problems in drilling operations.These stresses are significantly impacted by pore pressure variation and thermal stresses in the field.In order to address wellbore instability problems,it is important to investigate the mechanisms of rockefluid interaction with respect to thermal and mechanical aspects.In order to understand the induced stresses,different mathematical models have been developed.In this study,the field equations governing the problem have been derived based on the thermo-poroelastic theory and solved analytically in Laplace domain.The results are transferred to time domain using Fourier inverse method.Finite difference method is also utilized to validate the results.Pore pressure and temperature distributions around the wellbore have been focused and simulated.Next,induced radial and tangential stresses for different cases of cooling and heating of formation are compared.In addition,the differences between thermo-poroelastic and poroelastic models in situation of permeable and impermeable wellbores are described.It is observed that cooling and pore pressure distribution reinforce the induced radial stress.Whereas cooling can be a tool to control and reduce tangential stress induced due to invasion of drilling fluid.In the next step,safe mud window is obtained using Mohr-Coulomb,Mogi-Coulomb,and modified Lade failure criteria for different inclinations.Temperature and pore pressure distributions do not change the minimum allowable wellbore pressure significantly.However,upper limit of mud window is sensitive to induced stresses and it seems vital to consider changes in temperature and pore pressure to avoid any failures.The widest and narrowest mud windows are proposed by modified Lade and Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria,respectively.

A case-based method of selecting covariates for digital soil mapping

Selecting a proper set of covariates is one of the most important factors that influence the accuracy of digital soil mapping(DSM).The statistical or machine learning methods for selecting DSM covariates are not available for those situations with limited samples.To solve the problem,this paper proposed a case-based method which could formalize the covariate selection knowledge contained in practical DSM applications.The proposed method trained Random Forest(RF)classifiers with DSM cases extracted from the practical DSM applications and then used the trained classifiers to determine whether each one potential covariate should be used in a new DSM application.In this study,we took topographic covariates as examples of covariates and extracted 191 DSM cases from 56 peer-reviewed journal articles to evaluate the performance of the proposed case-based method by Leave-One-Out cross validation.Compared with a novices’commonly-used way of selecting DSM covariates,the proposed case-based method improved more than 30%accuracy according to three quantitative evaluation indices(i.e.,recall,precision,and F1-score).The proposed method could be also applied to selecting the proper set of covariates for other similar geographical modeling domains,such as landslide susceptibility mapping,and species distribution modeling.