A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions...A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs,all at the same forecast valid time.This lagged average forecast （LAF） method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean.Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score,the Hanssen and Kuipers Score,and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6-15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d-1 and 5 mm d-1 in many regions of China,and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members.In particular,significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40％-50％ in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China,and the southeastem Tibetan Plateau.展开更多
Originated in the early 1990s, SCGM(1, m ) c model has enjoyed widespread application in the fields of urban planning, society economy prediction and modal control in recent years. However, none of these applications ...Originated in the early 1990s, SCGM(1, m ) c model has enjoyed widespread application in the fields of urban planning, society economy prediction and modal control in recent years. However, none of these applications have taken account of time lag effects in the modeling process. Aiming at overcoming the defect, the authors introduced time lag items into SCGM(1, m ) c model and developed a SCGM(1, m ) c model with time lag, then discusses in detail some principal problems in the model, such as parameters estimation, model verifying, model prediction, etc. The model was used on a real slope monitoring project and compared with the conventional SCGM(1, m ) c model. The results show an improvement of average models precision from 1.321 to 0.238 and total average of relative prediction errors from 12.41% to 7.98% when the modeling data length ranges from 29 to 48 in the slope monitoring case.展开更多
This paper investigates the nonlinear prediction of monthly rainfall time series which consists of phase space continuation of one-dimensional sequence, followed by least-square determination of the coefficients for t...This paper investigates the nonlinear prediction of monthly rainfall time series which consists of phase space continuation of one-dimensional sequence, followed by least-square determination of the coefficients for the terms ofthe time-lag differential equation model and then fitting of the prognostic expression is made to 1951-1980 monthlyrainfall datasets from Changsha station. Results show that the model is likely to describe the nonlinearity of the allnual cycle of precipitation on a monthly basis and to provide a basis for flood prevention and drought combating forthe wet season.展开更多
Conditions are given for controllability, output controllability and local identifiabitity of a parametrization in a subset of of linear differential systems with time-lags.
The daily intake of total dietary fiber (TDF) was evaluated from data of the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) in Japan for 41 years since 1947. An interrelationship between the nutrient intake, including TDF, and the m...The daily intake of total dietary fiber (TDF) was evaluated from data of the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) in Japan for 41 years since 1947. An interrelationship between the nutrient intake, including TDF, and the mortality from colon cancer in Japanese people was calculated by a simple correlation coefficient and time-series correlation coeffcient.TDF intake per capita decreased rapidly from 27.4 g in 1947 to 15.8 g in 1963, and subsequently decreased by a lesser rate to 15.3 g in 1987. Fat intake increased rapidly from 18.0 g in 1950 to 56.6 g in 1987.The age-adjusted mortality from colon cancer shows a significant positive correlation with both the intakes of animal protein and of total fat, and the fat energy ratio. A time-series analysis indicates that the mortality from colon cancer was negatively correlated with TDF with a 15-27 year delay, the maximum correlation existing with a 23-year lag (r = -0.947). The TDF intake was less than 17.9 g in 1965. At the same time, the mortality from colon cancer increased rapidly. A fat/TDF ratio above 3.0 resulted in a rapid increase in colon cancer mortality.The non-adjusted mortality from colon cancer has much the same interrelationship with TDF and fat intake as the adjusted figures. It is suggested that the cause of the increased mortality from colon cancer in Japan is positively related to the increased intake of fat and protein. In addition, the decrease in TDF intake has accelerated the mortality of colon cancer after a delay of 23-24 years. The importance of fat/TDF as a nutritional criterion for the incidence of colon cancer needs to be better recognized展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program: Grant No. 2010CB951902)the Special Program for China Meteorology Trade (Grant No. GYHY201306020)the Technology Support Program of China (Grant No. 2009BAC51B03)
文摘A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs,all at the same forecast valid time.This lagged average forecast （LAF） method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean.Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score,the Hanssen and Kuipers Score,and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6-15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d-1 and 5 mm d-1 in many regions of China,and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members.In particular,significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40％-50％ in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China,and the southeastem Tibetan Plateau.
基金TheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina! (No .497742 0 9)
文摘Originated in the early 1990s, SCGM(1, m ) c model has enjoyed widespread application in the fields of urban planning, society economy prediction and modal control in recent years. However, none of these applications have taken account of time lag effects in the modeling process. Aiming at overcoming the defect, the authors introduced time lag items into SCGM(1, m ) c model and developed a SCGM(1, m ) c model with time lag, then discusses in detail some principal problems in the model, such as parameters estimation, model verifying, model prediction, etc. The model was used on a real slope monitoring project and compared with the conventional SCGM(1, m ) c model. The results show an improvement of average models precision from 1.321 to 0.238 and total average of relative prediction errors from 12.41% to 7.98% when the modeling data length ranges from 29 to 48 in the slope monitoring case.
文摘This paper investigates the nonlinear prediction of monthly rainfall time series which consists of phase space continuation of one-dimensional sequence, followed by least-square determination of the coefficients for the terms ofthe time-lag differential equation model and then fitting of the prognostic expression is made to 1951-1980 monthlyrainfall datasets from Changsha station. Results show that the model is likely to describe the nonlinearity of the allnual cycle of precipitation on a monthly basis and to provide a basis for flood prevention and drought combating forthe wet season.
文摘Conditions are given for controllability, output controllability and local identifiabitity of a parametrization in a subset of of linear differential systems with time-lags.
文摘The daily intake of total dietary fiber (TDF) was evaluated from data of the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) in Japan for 41 years since 1947. An interrelationship between the nutrient intake, including TDF, and the mortality from colon cancer in Japanese people was calculated by a simple correlation coefficient and time-series correlation coeffcient.TDF intake per capita decreased rapidly from 27.4 g in 1947 to 15.8 g in 1963, and subsequently decreased by a lesser rate to 15.3 g in 1987. Fat intake increased rapidly from 18.0 g in 1950 to 56.6 g in 1987.The age-adjusted mortality from colon cancer shows a significant positive correlation with both the intakes of animal protein and of total fat, and the fat energy ratio. A time-series analysis indicates that the mortality from colon cancer was negatively correlated with TDF with a 15-27 year delay, the maximum correlation existing with a 23-year lag (r = -0.947). The TDF intake was less than 17.9 g in 1965. At the same time, the mortality from colon cancer increased rapidly. A fat/TDF ratio above 3.0 resulted in a rapid increase in colon cancer mortality.The non-adjusted mortality from colon cancer has much the same interrelationship with TDF and fat intake as the adjusted figures. It is suggested that the cause of the increased mortality from colon cancer in Japan is positively related to the increased intake of fat and protein. In addition, the decrease in TDF intake has accelerated the mortality of colon cancer after a delay of 23-24 years. The importance of fat/TDF as a nutritional criterion for the incidence of colon cancer needs to be better recognized
