Climate Change of 4℃ Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4？C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4？C global warming will occur is 2084.Based on the median results of models that project a 4？C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5？C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

Proximal-distal motor unit number estimationdynamic changes in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis A one-year follow-up

BACKGROUND：Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis （ALS） is the most common of all the motor neuron diseases and the absence of a biologic marker has made both diagnosis and tracking evolution of the disease difficult, Electrodiagnostic tests play a fundamental role in quantifying pathological changes in the motor unit pool.OBJECTIVE：We assessed distal-proximal Motor Unit （MU） loss and changes using the method of motor unit number estimation （MUNE）.DESIGN, TIME AND SETTING：A case-control study was performed at the Department of Neuroscience, Pisa University Medical School, Italy from December 1999 to November 2009. PARTICIPANTS：A total of 50 ALS patients were recruited, 30 males：mean age （59.6 ± 13.3） years; 20 females：mean age （63.9 ± 11.7） years; range （30-82） years; all patients had probable or definite ALS. Thirty healthy volunteers were recruited from department staffs, including 20 males and 10 females; mean age （57.7 ± 13.8） years served as controls.METHODS：MUNE was performed for both the biceps brachii and abductor digiti minimi muscles of the same side. The technique used relayed substantially on manual incremental stimulation of the motor nerve, known as the McComas technique （50 ms sweep duration, a gain of 2 mV/Div for M wave, 0.5 mV/Div for each step; filters 10-20 kHz）.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES：MUNE results were measured.RESULTS：Functioning MU numbers, measured by MUNE, decreased in the biceps brachii and abductor digiti minimi muscles over the entire one-year follow-up period （one assessment every three months） compared with baseline determination, the rate of MU decrease was similar in both muscles, but steeper distally.CONCLUSION：MUNE is a feasible method for ALS patients both proximally and distally to track changes over time in muscle MUs during the disease＇s evolution.

Local and Time Changes over a 66-Year Period and Annual Relocation of Saudi Arabian Subtropical High Pressure

Saudi Arabian subtropical high pressure is a major system affecting general circulation of the atmosphere of west Asia. Its annual relocation affects the relocation of other systems in the area, such as Mediterranean cyclones, Sudanese low pressure areas, and west wind waves. This system is known to relocate to the south and north in response to outward solar relocation, but the reasons behind its eastern and western relocation have not been studied thoroughly. The present study examined 1000 and 850 HPa levels over the course of 66 years (1948-2015) to determine a pattern of latitudinal and longitudinal relocation of the system using synoptic maps. The research showed that, after 2008, high pressure latitudinal and longitudinal swings were larger than in previous years and the annual high pressure relocation was not in concord with the apparent motion of the sun. At the onset of autumnal moderation, the high pressure core was positioned to the north of Saudi Arabia (22° - 30° north latitude and 42° - 50° south longitude). Southern movement continued until the end of March, when the core again relocated to the north. These relocations first occurred slowly, but the northern relocation occurred very quickly from May to June, such that the core moved northward 22° to 30°. After June, the core did not relocate much until the end of September. After September, it relocated strongly south in all time periods. It was noted that high pressure over Saudi Arabia had two cores from June to September in some years;in others the high pressure core was in southwestern Iran and Iraq. In still others, a southwest to northeast high pressure tab entered Iran from the southwest (Khuzestan) and continued northward with a core forming in the northern Caspian Sea.

Climate Change Crunch Time

From November 28 to December 9,the 17th Conference of the Parties(COP17) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change takes place in Durban,South Africa.Discussions will center on what the international community can do to cope with the increasingly serious climate change.In an article for China Today,Xie Zhenhua, Vice Chairman of National Development and Reform Commission,explained China’s efforts in carbon emission reduction and its stance at the upcoming conference.His edited views follow:

Study on a gravity precursor mode of the M_S=7.0 Lijiang earthquake

To study the seismogeny process or the precursory behavior of the 1976 MS=7.0 Lijiang earthquake, we analyze the repeat gravity data with high precision from the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Experiment Area (WYEPEA) and the related results of geology and geophysics survey in this paper. Considering the gross errors caused by observation data and model difference, we have firstly inverted the slip distribution of the main active faults with time based on the robust Bayesian least squares estimation and multi-fault dislocation model. The re-sults show that the slip changes of the faults with time from 1990 to 1997 obviously reflect the preparation process of the Lijiang earthquake. The images of main precursor mode have the characteristic of main shock-after shock type, which is agreement to the model of coupling movement between crust density and crust deformation (DD mode of coupling movement).

Nighttime meridional neutral wind responses to SAPS simulated by the TIEGCM:A universal time effect

The present work uses the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model(TIEGCM),under geomagnetically disturbed conditions that are closely related to the southward interplanetary magnetic field(IMF),to investigate how the nighttime poleward wind(30°–50°magnetic latitude and 19–22 magnetic local time)responds to subauroral polarization streams(SAPS)that commence at different universal times(UTs).The SAPS effects on the poleward winds show a remarkable UT variation,with weaker magnitudes at 00 and 12 UT than at 06 and 18 UT.The strongest poleward wind emerges when SAPS commence at 06 UT,and the weakest poleward wind develops when SAPS occur at 00 UT.A diagnostic analysis of model results shows that the pressure gradient is more prominent for the developing of the poleward wind at 00 and 12 UT.Meanwhile,the effect of ion drag is important in the modulation of the poleward wind velocity at 06 and 18 UT.This is caused by the misalignment of the geomagnetic and geographic coordinate systems,resulting in a large component of ion drag in the geographically northward(southward)direction due to channel orientation of the SAPS at 06 and 18 UT(00 and 12 UT).The Coriolis force effect induced by westward winds maximizes(minimizes)when SAPS commence at 12 UT(00 UT).The centrifugal force due to the accelerated westward winds shows similar UT variations as the Coriolis force,but with an opposite effect.

Monitoring of Soil Bulk Density in Context with Its Small-Scale Spatial Heterogeneity

The main aim of soil monitoring system is to obtain the knowledge of the most current state and development of soil properties according to concrete threats to soil. To determine the significant changes of soil properties in time, it is important to know spatial variability of concrete soil parameter for concrete site. Only those time changes of the soil parameter are significant, which exceed its spatial variability at the site. The main aim of the study has been focused on the evaluation of small-scale site heterogeneity of equilibrium soil bulk density and the integration of impact of this heterogeneity in evaluation of degradation process of soil compaction in time. As site variation coefficients have considerably varied at standard sampling with five repetitions during monitoring period, one-time detail spatial variability mapping of soil bulk density was realized at 17 repetitions on five selected monitoring sites with different soil type, texture and use. This increase in the number of sampling points helped us to specify and stabilize the values of variation coefficients (between minimum and maximum by standard sampling) as well as the extent of confidence intervals. Standard deviations at the chosen monitoring sites moved from 0.039 to 0.118 g·cm-3 in topsoil and from 0.031 to 0.067 g·cm-3 in subsoil and expressed as variation coefficient 2.9% - 9.2% and 2.0% - 4.9%, respectively. The intervals of significant time changes of soil bulk density for the sites and depths were determined on the base of its site confidence interval (95%) and uncertainty rate of its measure methodology. The time changes of bulk density values between single year-to-year sampling were overlapped by this interval of significant changes to obtain significant bulk density changes in time. This method allowed us to distinguish significant time changes in soil bulk density from insignificant ones. The bulk density value changes on the monitoring sites were significant in the range of six to nine years within observed period 2002-2014 in both depths.

Three-order pseudo-Hamilton canonical equationsReceived

Based on the three-order Lagrangian equations, Hamilton＇s function of acceleration H^＊ and generalized acceleration momentum P^＊α are defined, and pseudo-Hamilton canonical equations corresponding to three-order Lagrangian equations are obtained. The equations are similar to Hamilton＇s canonical equations of analytical mechanics in form.

Discussion of Influences on Snow Water Equivalent at Utah Snow Courses

Snow data collection systems in the western United States were originally designed to forecast water supply and may be subject to several sources of bias. In addition to climate change and weather modification effects, site-specific effects may be introduced from vegetation changes, site physical changes, measurement technique, and sensor changes. This paper examines changes in Utah＇s snowpack conditions over the past decade compared with all previous measurement years, focusing on the 15 snow courses with the longest observational record within the state of Utah. Although patterns in snowpack data consistent with those that would be expected due to temperature h as greater declines at lower elevations and latitudes--were not identified, snow water equivalent decreased at sites with significant increases in vegetation coverage. Additionally, we provide a list of 22 snow courses in Utah that are best-suited for long-term climate analysis.

Study on algorithm of dynamic uncalibrated eye-in-hand visual servoing system

Currently, most visual servoing system must be calibrated, while it is impossible to calibrate cameras and robot models precisely in industrial practice, so a novel dynamic uncalibrated eye-in-hand visual servoing system of tracking a moving target is proposed. The method does not require calibration of camera and robot kinematic models. Vision guided algorithm for tracking dynamic image is developed through minimizing nonlinear objective function. For the large residual has not been approximated in dynamic environment and the change of composite image Jacobian with time increment has not been computed in visual servoing system now,large residuals are dynamic approximated and the change of composite image Jacobian at each iterative step is computed. Simulation results demonstrate the validity of these approaches.

Significance of Chinese Viewing Themselves as Equals of Any Other in the World

A resurgent China contributes to the world. General Secretary Xi Jinping attaches great importance to the issues of the times and analyzes the development direction of humankind from the perspective and method of Marxism. Further, he indicates that we must base ourselves on the overall strategy of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the significant changes occurring in the world that have not been seen in a century and makes a major judgment that the timing and international situation are favorable to China. Inevitably, Chinese now view themselves as equals of any other in the world, reflecting a historic change in the relations between China and the remaining world. In other words, no country can dictate terms to China. Building a powerful modern socialist country is a great goal set by the Communist Party of China(CPC). To build a great country and achieve a great cause, we must go through enormous struggle. Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy reflects on the issues of our times. Answering the questions and guiding the changes of our times, Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy is of great significance. Moreover, the CPC has remained true to socialism, and socialism has proved its worth to China.

The Time-Frequency Energy Attenuation Factor and Its Application on the Basis of Gauss Linear Frequency-Modulated Continuous Wavelet Transform

Based on the Gauss linear frequency modulated wavelet transform, a new characteristic index is presented, namely time frequency energy attenuation factor which can reflect the difference features of waveform in earthquake focus mechanism, wave traveling path and its attenuation characteristics in focal area or near field. In order to test its validity, we select the natural earthquakes and explosion or collapse events whose focus mechanisms vary obviously,and some natural earthquakes located at the same site or in a very small area. The study indicates that the time frequency energy attenuation factors of the natural earthquakes are obviously different with that of explosion or collapse events, and the change of the time frequency energy attenuation factors is relatively stable for the earthquakes under the normal seismicity background. Using the above mentioned method, it is expected to offer a useful criterion for strong earthquake prediction by continuous earthquake observation.

Vertical structure and dominating factors of sand body during Late Triassic Chang 9 time of Yanchang Formation in Ordos Basin, NW China

Based on a synthetic geological study of drilling, well logging and core observations, two main genetic types of Chang 9sand body in Odors Basin were recognized, which included two effects, that is, delta environment and tractive current effects that lead to the development of mouth bar, distal bar, sheet sand and other sand bodies of subaerial and subaqueous distributary channel,natural levee, flood fan and delta front, and shore-shallow lake environment and lake flow transformation effects that result in the development of sandy beach bar, sheet sand and other sand bodies. Chang 9 sand body mainly developed five basic vertical structures, namely box shape, campaniform, infundibuliform, finger and dentoid. The vertical stacking patterns of multilayer sand body was complex, and the common shapes included box shape + box shape, campaniform + campaniform, campaniform + box shape, infundibuliform + infundibuliform, campaniform + infundibuliform, box shape + campaniform, box shape + infundibuliform,and finger + finger. Based on the analysis on major dominating factors of vertical structure of sand body, sedimentary environment,sedimentary facies and rise, fall and cycle of base level are identified as the major geological factors that control the vertical structure of single sand body as well as vertical stacking patterns and distribution of multistory sand bodies.

Spatial and temporal variation of vegetation phenology and its response to climate changes in Qaidam Basin from 2000 to 2015

Based on TIMESAT 3.2 platform, MODIS NDVI data(2000–2015) of Qaidam Basin are fitted, and three main phenological parameters are extracted with the method of dynamic threshold, including the start of growth season(SGS), the end of growth season(EGS) and the length of growth season(LGS). The spatial and temporal variation of vegetation phenology and its response to climate changes are analyzed respectively. The conclusions are as follows:(1) SGS is mainly delayed as a whole. Areas delayed are more than the advanced in EGS, and EGS is a little delayed as a whole. LGS is generally shortened.(2) With the altitude rising, SGS is delayed, EGS is advanced, and LGS is shortened and phenophase appears a big variation below 3000 m and above 5000 m.(3) From 2000 to 2015, the temperature appears a slight increase along with a big fluctuation, and the precipitation increases evidently.(4) Response of phenophase to precipitation is not obvious in the low elevation humid regions, where SGS arrives early and EGS delays; while, in the upper part of the mountain regions, SGS delays and EGS advances with temperature rising, SGS arrives early and EGS delays with precipitation increasing.

Revuz measures under time change

In this paper, we shall study how energy functionals and Revuz measures change under time change of Markov processes and provide an intuitive and direct approach to the computation of the Levy system and jumping measure of time changed process.

Functional inequalities for time-changed symmetric α-stable processes

We establish sharp functional inequalities for time-changed symmetric α-stable processes on Rd with d≥1 and α∈(0,2), which yield explicit criteria for the compactness of the associated semigroups. Furthermore, when the time change is defined via the special function W(x)=(1+|x|)β with β>α we obtain optimal Nash-type inequalities, which in turn give us optimal upper bounds for the density function of the associated semigroups.

It's Time for a Change in Linguistics—a Brief Review of the 18th International Systemic Congress

About the CongressThe 18th International Systemic Congress was convened in Tokyo,Japanfrom 29th July to 2nd August 1991.It took place on the ever-green garden-like campus of the International Christian University,with more than onehundred participants from about twenty countries and regions.Among

Reading Faces——Our definition of what's normal changes over time

爱美之心,人皆有之,但研究人员发现:Individual and social attitudes to-ward what’s acceptable,and what’s beautiful,change over time,因此尽管有Survival of the Prettiest(靓者生存)的说法,在目前轰轰烈烈的“人造”美女与帅哥的潮流中,是否选择plastic-surgery(整形手术)最好还是三思而行。

CHALLENGES TO TEACHERS AT A TIME OF CURRICULUM CHANGE

This paper introduces the background of English curriculum change an the serious problems related to the reform of English teaching in the P. R. China. It analyses the major expectation of the curriculum designers and the teachers during implementation. It also discusses the great challenge to teachers in terms of conceptions and practices.

Stability of elliptic Harnack inequalities Dedicated to Professor Jia-an Yan on the Occasion of His 80th Birthday

We survey some recent progress in the study of stability of elliptic Harnack inequalities under form-bounded perturbations for strongly local Dirichlet forms on complete locally compact separable metric spaces.