Non-regular Employment of Women,Fertility Rate,and Economic Growth

This study analyzes the interaction between non-regular employment of women and economic growth patterns by an overlapping-generations model.Declining Birthrate White Paper-Cabinet Office(2013)shows the ideal number of children per household is 2.42 compared to the current number of 2.07,which is the lowest so far in Japan.The main reason households do not have the ideal number of children is“the costs burden of childcare and education”and the ratio amounts to 60.4%.In recent years in Japan,households in which both the husband and the wife work are increasing,whereas those in which only the husband works are decreasing.Additionally,although women have same educational background and abilities as men,most women become non-regular employees after marriage and childbirth,which reduces household income.In such a situation,raising the rate of pension insurance will be a big burden for the household and the declining birthrate may be caused by high levels of educational expenditure and pension insurance.The Japanese government has discussed raising the wages of non-regular employees.This paper finds that a rise in the wage rate of non-regular employment is needed under the public pension policy that raises the rate of pension insurance,and it must be at an adequate level.That is,there is a high risk that this policy will have a negative effect on Japan’s economic growth if an adequate level is not achieved.

Effect of total resource allocation effect and economic growth:Chinese experience of 1978-2004

The analytical method of total resource reallocation effect is an evolution of the analytical method of the factors of economic growth. Since the marketization reform in China in 1978, market mechanism has played a more and more important role in resource allocation, and Chinese economy has developed greatly, which is called "the Chinese Miracle". This paper analyzes the economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004 with the analytical method of total resource reallocation effect. The result shows that the annual growth rate of total resource reallocation effect was 0.2%, which was 5.1% of the comprehensive productivity and 0.21% of the gross output growth, i.e. the total resource allocation played a weak role in the economic growth in China. When analyzing it in Chenery's multinational model, we find that Chinese comprehensive productivity growth rate was higher than that in all the income phases of the model, but the total resource allocation effect was obviously lower than that in all the income phases of the model. It indicates that the total resource allocation in China has a great potential, and that to accelerate marketization reform is one of the important issues for Chinese economic development.

The Sources of Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African IDB Member Countries

The economic growth in Sub-Sahara African （SSA） IDB member countries has been encouraging over the last decade; however, it is still not high enough to enable these countries to overcome the persistent poverty. There is thus a need to raise substantially real GDP growth rates on a sustained basis, both through the productivity channel and factor accumulation such as labor and capital. This study focuses on ＂the source of economic growth in SSA IDB member countries＂ with the objective of identifying the main driving factors of economic growth in the region using the growth accounting framework and extending the existing analysis both by country and time coverage. The paper is expected to be useful for the policymakers in the region to have a clear picture on the main sources of growth, and thus help them in identifying strategic reform areas of intervention in line with the most binding factors of growth. The data used in this study cover 20 Sub-Sahara African countries covering the period 1990-2012. The data set includes real GDP, labor force, and capital stock. The source of data is the various version of the World Economic Outlook, IMF. Capital stock is estimated using perpetual inventory method and the base year is 1970. In estimating growth accounting model, a translog production function is applied using panel data and random effects model. Empirical results show that the capital accumulation is the most important individual factor in GDP growth （52%） followed by workforce accumulation （39%） while total factor productivity （TFP） accounts for meagre 8%. This suggests that, on average, real GDP growth in Sub-Sahara African countries was driven primarily by factor accumulation with a low level of TFP. In addition, the elasticity of labor was lower than that of capital indicating that the labor played very little role in GDP growth most likely due to unskilled labor force or mismatch of labor skills with the production process. Furthermore, this also adversely affects both the TFP growth and the share of capital growth to the GDP growth. The results indicate that the critical constraint to the economic growth appears to be poor labor skills that lead to both low labor productivity and under-utilization of capital stock.

An empirical analysis of the IT industry's impacts on economic growth in China

With its increasing contributions to economic growth and its important role in optimizing industrial structure and stabilizing overall prices, China's information technology (IT) industry has grown into a dominant industrial sector in promoting the country's economic development. Its high level of total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates makes China's technical advances rely more and more on IT innovation and application. Under the current global economic crisis, the industry will remain an important source for economic growth.

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Regional Economic Growth in China： Evidence from Provincial Data

Using data for the period 2000-2011, we construct province-level real effective exchange rate （REER） indices for China and test the effect of REER depreciation on regional economic growth in a generalized method of moments regression framework. Our results show that REER depreciation, in general, promotes regional economic growth, through increasing net exports and lowering FDI costs. After dividing the full sample into coastal and inland subsamples, we find that REER depreciation influences economic growth in inland areas but not in coastal areas. This is due to the fact that the inland areas have more surplus labor or other resources to expand their production capacity when REER depreciation leads to increased worm demand. Furthermore, compared to inland areas, processing-and-assembly trade comprises a larger share of trade in the coastal areas, where traders import more raw materials and intermediate goods to process and assemble goods. When the exchange rate depreciates, the costs of imported materials and immediate goods increase. In this case, the benefits from REER depreciation in coastal areas are offset to some extent and are thus lower than in inland areas.

人口结构变化、老龄化趋势及延迟退休对经济增长的影响

检验人口结构对经济增长的影响,预测人口总量及其结构的走势和老龄化的未来趋势,分析人口总量及其结构,尤其是老龄化趋势对经济增长的影响。研究发现:第一,劳动力数量和劳动力占比增加、人口抚养比下降会促进经济增长,在对经济增长的回归中人口结构的解释力不及劳动力数量,但在预测未来时人口结构变化的影响力更大。第二,总人口会在低方案情况下已步入下降通道,如果总和生育率不快速提升的话,中国的老龄化程度在近50年将持续加深。第三,延迟退休可以减少老龄化对经济增长的负面冲击;提高生育率可以减缓老龄化程度,但在短期会抑制经济增长。延迟退休方案增加劳动人口越多,越能促进经济增长,延迟退休实施的力度越大,法定退休年龄越大,对老龄化的缓冲程度越大。如果男女每年延迟退休递增1年,分别最终延迟到70岁和65岁,在一些年份甚至可以完全抵消老龄化的抑制作用。

我国省际全要素生产率的对比分析研究

传统的按照索洛方法计算的广义技术进步率并不是本来意义上的全要素生产率。因此,本文重新构建全要素生产率的测度框架。一是明确定义全要素生产率,即一定时期内,按照现有的技术条件和产业结构比例,每投入一个单位的全部生产要素所能够带来的最终产出。二是利用有关统计数据估算省级层面有效资本存量,并分别构建各省份合适的计量模型估计其在不同发展阶段的要素产出弹性系数,进而测度各省份全要素生产率以及因全要素生产率变动所带来的经济增长率(简称全要素经济增长率)。实证分析结果表明,一般情况下,经济越发达省份的全要素生产率也越高,但是经济发达省份的全要素经济增长率并不一定高于经济欠发达省份。该结果不仅与常识相符,而且也合理解释了各省份生产效率与技术进步之间的联系与区别,验证了本文所提出的测度框架及方法的可行性。

中国人口变化趋势及经济潜在增长率——兼论延迟退休的影响

基于生产函数法的估测结果显示,2035年之前中国潜在经济增长率将处于下行趋势,2021—2025年平均为5.2%左右,2026—2030年平均为5.1%左右,2031—2035年平均为4.7%左右。潜在经济增长率下降的主要因素是,未来人口抚养比上升,导致固定资本形成率下降,进而固定资本存量增速放缓。未来就业人口数量减少,对潜在经济增长率有不利影响,但人力资本积累能在一定程度上弥补。情形分析结果显示,2035年之前人口出生率水平与经济潜在增长率呈相反关系,主要原因是,新出生人口在2035年前尚无法进入劳动力市场,反而会通过影响固定资本增速拖累经济潜在增长率。延迟退休对2025—2035年的经济增长有积极影响,以2024年9月13日公布的方案测算,年均提高潜在增长率约0.03个百分点。

人口老龄化、新质生产力与经济高质量发展

实现人口规模巨大的现代化首先要厘清人口老龄化与经济增长的关系。当前我国人口发展面临着深刻而复杂的形势变化,人口负增长下“少子老龄化”将成为常态。习近平总书记提出加快形成新质生产力,从孕育推动经济发展新动能的角度指明了积极应对人口老龄化的新路径。论文以技术进步和人才培养作为发展新质生产力的着力点,通过构建包含干中学的内生增长模型,从理论层面阐述以预期寿命延长和生育率下降为特征的人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,并重点突出以人工智能为代表的技术进步和人力资本投资在应对人口老龄化负向增长效应时的重要作用。数值模拟结果显示,预期寿命延长通过鼓励生命周期储蓄增加了人工智能密度,进而提高了劳动生产率、促进了经济增长;生育率下降虽然促进了人力资本投资、提高了人工智能密度,但其直接负向增长效应大于间接正向劳动生产率效应,经济增长随生育率下降而放缓。论文进一步考察了生育支持政策对生育率和经济增长的影响,并且从人口发展视角阐释新质生产力重要论述的理论价值和现实意义,为探索人口老龄化背景下经济高质量发展提供理论依据。

制造业投入服务化影响全要素生产率的机理与对策分析

探讨如何通过制造业投入服务化寻求全要素生产率提升,对于推动高质量发展具有重要意义。制造业投入服务化将通过创新驱动效应、成本降低效应、缓解服务业“成本病”提高全要素生产率,增强经济增长动能。当前,我国制造业投入服务化存在区域不均衡性,制造业投入服务化对全要素生产率的影响呈倒“U”形,生产性与消费性服务要素投入有利于全要素生产率提升。但也面临制造业投入服务化对全要素生产率提升存在研发资源挤出效应、区域差异、要素结构困境等现实问题。为此,要降低制造业投入服务化成本,推进区域均衡发展,优化投入要素结构,从而释放制造业投入服务化发展潜力,增强经济增长动能。

科研和教学关系的经济理论模型构建与实证检验

在经济增长模型框架下,推出了人均教学效果增长方程。借助相位图分析,人均教学效果科研转化函数和人均科研存量损耗函数相交确定人均教学效果稳态均衡点。通过动态分析认为,科研转化率的提高(减小)会提高(减小)人均教学效果,教职工人数增长率和科研损耗率的提高(减小)会减小(提高)人均教学效果。实证研究表明,科研转化率对提高教学效果具有显著正向作用,教职工人数增长率和一流建设高校对提高教学效果影响并不显著,科研损耗率则具有显著负向作用。应该秉持“科教一元论”理念,提高教师科研素质,加强科研成果转化,降低科研损耗率,使科研“课堂化”“场景化”“大赛化”和“思政化”,将“科研元素”融入教学的每个环节,提高教学“科研含量”。

施肥对蓝桉幼林生长的影响

经５ ａ 研究结果表明，在云南省保山市石灰岩红壤地区施肥能明显促进蓝桉幼林生长，肥效在１．５ ａ时最大，９ 个施肥处理的树高、胸径平均增长３３．６９％ 、４８．３９％ ，造林后５ ａ 时，生长反应已经呈下降趋势，９ 个施肥处理的树高、胸径平均增长１６．４５％ 、１０．７１％ 。Ｐ肥是促进蓝桉增产的主要因素，每株施４３０ ｇ 钙镁磷肥的几个处理增产效果较好，Ｎ、Ｋ 肥增产效果不明显，有机肥对蓝桉生长有促进作用。在９ 个施肥处理中，处理６（钙镁磷肥做底肥，用量４３０ ｇ·株－ １，追施尿素６５ ｇ·株－ １ ）、处理９（钙镁磷肥做底肥，用量４３０ ｇ·株－ １，追施尿素１３０ ｇ·株－ １，追施氯化钾５４ ｇ·株－ １）、处理１０（在处理９ 的基础上增施５ ｋｇ 有机肥）肥效明显。经济效益最佳的处理为处理６

绿肥全部还田条件下烤烟化肥氮用量调整研究

采用田间小区试验研究了绿肥全部还田条件下不同施氮水平对烤烟生长发育以及烟叶产量、产值和品质的影响。结果表明:在绿肥全部还田条件下,不同氮肥用量对烤烟株高、烟叶SPAD值、烟株干物质累积以及烤后烟叶产量、产值和化学成分均有一定的影响。与对照(即绿肥地上部不还田,按当地传统习惯施肥)相比,施氮量为60%的烟株农艺性状表现较好,产量、产值和上等烟比例分别增加5.68%、23.57%和34.33%,同时烟叶内在化学成分更为协调;而施氮量为80%和100%两处理的烟株田间有贪青晚熟现象,产量最高,但产值小于施氮量为60%的处理,而高于对照;施氮量为40%以及不施氮肥处理的烟株成熟较早,产量和产值相对较低。综合而言,在绿肥全部还田条件下,烤烟化肥氮施用量以当地习惯推荐量的60%为宜。

稻草全量还田对双季水稻生长和土壤肥力的影响

通过设置不施肥、单施化肥、稻草烧灰还田+化肥和稻草全量还田+化肥4个处理的大田定位试验,在等量氮磷钾养分条件下,研究稻草全量还田对双季稻分蘖动态、产量、土壤理化性质以及经济效益的影响。结果表明:晚稻稻草还田有利于翌年早稻产量的提高,较单施化肥和烧灰还田处理相比,产量分别提高了8.6%和3.1%;而早稻草还田对晚稻的增产效果不明显。稻草连续多季直接还田有利于改善土壤的通气状况和提高土壤肥力以及提高生产收益。稻草全量还田不仅提高了水稻的产量,改善了土壤的通气孔隙度和提高了土壤养分含量,而且还减少了生产成本,提高了种粮的经济效益。

脲醛缓释肥不同配比对小麦生长及土壤氮素养分的影响

在黄淮海地区冬小麦中高产田采用小区试验,以普通尿素基施、普通尿素基施加追施作对比,研究脲醛氮占总氮30%,40%,50%,60%,70%的不同脲醛缓释掺混肥在田间的氮素养分释放特征,以及对土壤氮素养分、小麦产量、氮素利用率及经济效益的影响,探明合理施用脲醛缓释肥最优氮素配比,以达到增加产量、节约资源、增加经济效益的目的。结果表明:脲醛掺混肥氮素释放量在小麦生育进程中呈现高低再高低的变化过程,脲醛氮占总氮40%或50%最有利于土壤氮素供应,脲醛氮所占比例过大或过小,都不利于小麦整个生长期氮素供应。脲醛氮占总氮40%和50%的处理小麦穗数和穗粒数表现较好,每公顷比普通施肥增产11.36%~13.67%,而脲醛氮占总氮30%,60%和70%的处理增产效果不显著。与普通尿素基肥、基肥加追肥处理相比,脲醛氮占总氮40%,50%的处理氮素利用效率提高24.80%~103.87%,而脲醛氮占总氮30%,70%的氮素利用率没有显著变化,甚至会降低氮素利用率。脲醛氮占总氮40%,50%的处理比普通施肥处理增收1 350~1 591元/hm^2。综合考虑资源节约、增产效果及增收等因素,建议在黄淮海地区冬小麦中高产田施肥管理中以脲醛氮占总氮40%~50%进行配比施用。

我国有效税率结构的经济增长效应:基于SVAR模型的实证研究

通过测算我国劳动、资本和消费的有效税率,以反映我国劳动收入、资本收入和消费支出的真实税收负担情况,并在此基础上构建SVAR模型来考察有效税率结构冲击对经济增长的动态影响。结果表明:消费支出有效税率和劳动收入有效税率的提高有利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期累积效应为正;对资本收入征税,无论在短期还是长期都不利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期累积效应为负。研究我国有效税率结构的经济增长动态增长效应,对政府税收政策的制定和实施时机的选择有一定的参考意义。

中国产业结构变迁的资源再配置效应

现有文献对我国产业结构变迁对经济增长贡献的判断存在争议。该文在考虑三次产业要素产出弹性可变的基础上,重新测算了我国产业结构变迁中的资源再配置效应。研究发现,改革开放以来资源再配置效应始终是我国经济增长的重要源泉,由于产业间要素边际生产率存在较大差异,未来中国经济依然可以从产业结构变迁中获得巨大收益。

我国人口老龄化影响经济增长的作用机制分析——基于中介效应视角的探讨

人口老龄化与经济增长的关系研究引起了学术界的高度关注,然而现有分析中少有针对人口老龄化如何影响经济增长等问题进行深入细致的探讨。为此,本文从中介效应角度出发,通过因素分解方法从理论上论证人口老龄化对经济增长的影响存在三种中介路径,即人口老龄化可以通过劳动生产率、劳动参与率以及劳动年龄人口比重影响经济增长速度,同时利用全国31个省市1990~2012年的统计数据验证三个变量确实存在显著的中介效应。经测算发现我国人口老龄化通过劳动生产率和劳动年龄人口比重显著提升人均GDP的增长速度,而劳动参与率所带来的影响则为负。但从增长途径来看,人口老龄化主要通过劳动生产率来影响经济增长速度。主要原因在于生育率下降后,父母增加了对孩子的教育投资,高等教育规模的扩张虽然延迟了大量年轻劳动力进入劳动力市场的时间,但同时通过知识教育和技能培训为劳动生产率的快速提升积累了重要的人力资本。因此从实证覆盖的时间来看,人口老龄化影响经济增长的过程中劳动投入更多表现为质量(生产效率)上的优势,即通过提高劳动生产效率来实现经济水平的快速增长。

江苏经济发展阶段与科技进步贡献率探究

根据钱纳里等关于经济发展阶段的"标准结构"理论,运用增长速度方程,对江苏省及其13个地市的科技进步贡献率进行了实际测算。结果表明,改革开放以来江苏省及其各个地市的经济增长主要受资本投入和科技进步的驱动;相比较而言,科技进步对苏南地区经济的促进作用较为明显,而资本投入对苏北地区经济的拉动作用更为显著。

黄河三角洲盐碱土冬小麦氮磷肥料效应模型研究

通过大田试验,研究了黄河三角洲盐碱土地区冬小麦合适的肥料效应模型。在冬小麦生长季设置4种不同的氮磷肥用量,根据"3414"试验设计8种不同的肥效试验处理,以探讨线性加平台、一元二次、平方根和二元二次4种不同模型的拟合效果。结果显示,4种肥料效应模型的拟合结果经检验都达到极显著水平(P<0.01)。在一元肥料效应模型中,氮磷一元二次模型拟合效果最好,最高收益分别为7 448.3元·hm^(-2)和7 357.7元·hm^(-2),最佳经济氮磷用量分别为254.4 kg·hm^(-2)和98.6 kg·hm^(-2)。对比一元与二元模型,后者拟合效果较好,最佳经济氮磷用量分别为244.1 kg·hm^(-2)和94.2 kg·hm^(-2),即氮磷肥配比为2.6∶1,经济效益为7 432.4元·hm^(-2),氮肥农学利用率为6.2 kg(籽粒)·kg^(-1)(N),磷肥农学利用率为13.8 kg(籽粒)·kg^(-1)(P_2O_5)。结合拟合度、最佳经济施肥量、经济收益、肥料农学利用率和一元模型的局限性分析得出,二元二次肥料效应模型最优,可作为黄河三角洲地区盐碱土冬小麦氮磷肥效模型的最佳选择。