Estimating inter-regional trade flows in China： A sector-specific statistical model

China has huge differences among its regions in terms of socio-economic development, industrial structure, natural resource endowments, and technological advancement. These differences have created complicated linkages between regions in China. In this study, building upon gravity model and location quotient techniques, we develop a sector-specific model to estimate inter-provincial trade flows, which is the base for making a multi-regional input-output table. In the model, we distinguish sectors with less intra-sector input from those with larger intra-sector input, and assume that the former sectors tend to compete among regions while the latter tend to cooperate among regions. Then we apply this new method of inter-regional trade estimation to three sectors： food and tobacco, metal smelting and proc- essing, and electrical equipment. The results show that selection of bandwidth has a significant impact on the assessment of inter-regional trade. Trade flows are more scattered with the increase of bandwidths. As a result, bandwidth reflects the spatial concentration of geo- graphical activities, which should be distinguishable for different industries. We conclude that the sector-specific spatial model can increase the credibility of estimates of inter-regional trade flows.

Characteristics of Agricultural and Livestock Products Trade Flows between China and the “Belt and Road” Initiative Region: From the Perspective of Biocapacity

In the context of global ecological overload,international trade has become one of the most important ways to make up for the ecological deficit.This study takes the"Belt and Road"Initiative as the study area to analyze the biocapacity and ecological footprint characteristics between China and other countries along the"Belt and Road"Initiative.Trade flow characteristics were explored from the perspective of biocapacity.The import and export of virtual land was used to assess the effect of trade on compensating for the resource gaps in crop and grazing land.The main results show that:1)In 2005-2014,the majority of"Belt and Road"countries were experiencing increasing degrees of overload.In China,cropland takes up the largest proportion of biocapacity,while the ecological footprint is dominated by the carbon footprint.2)The trade flow of agricultural and livestock products in the mainland of China shows a trend of increasing imports and decreasing exports,which increases dependence on specific regions.3)In 2005-2014,China’s trade in cereals and oil crops along the“Belt and Road”Initiative were generally net imports,and the share of cereals traded along the“Belt and Road”Initiative is increasing gradually,but that of oil crops decreased rapidly.4)The import trade has alleviated ecological deficit,as the selected products compensated for 1.03 times of the cropland deficit and 0.65 times of the grazing land deficit in China.This study is helpful to understand the relationship between the land use and trade deeply,and provide decision-making references for reducing ecological deficits,optimizing land resource allocation,and promoting win-win cooperation among China and other countries in the"Belt and Road"Initiative.

Tropical Timber Trade Flows in P.R. China

The historical transition of timber distribution pattern in China was presented firstly with main parts of timber flows in China,which included timber markets,timber transport system and regulations of timber transport.Based on the overview on tropical timber flows in China,the trade flows of tropical timber from production and imports of tropical timber to export of tropical timber products were analyzed by vivid illustrations.At the same time,problems in timber trade flows in China were analysed in the end.

The Impact of Trade Facilitation on Economic Development： A Case of East African Community （EAC）

This study examined the impact of trade facilitation on economic development, particularly the impact of customs environment on trade flows over the period from 1995 to 2010. Five countries of the East African Community （EAC）, namely, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, are involved. The study employs a gravity model for estimating bilateral trade flows between the EAC partner states. The ordinary least square （OLS） technique is adopted and applied for the regression analysis by using the Stata 10.0 software. Results suggest that, the customs environment of the importer is significant and possesses a strongly positive impact on East African trade flows. Results also find that the customs environment of the exporter is insignificant, even though it shows a negative relationship with the East African trade flows, hence a negative determinant. East African countries have to improve their customs environment, especially when undertaking an importation, in order to boost the overall trade flow in the block. They should also improve other trade facilitation indicators, such as port efficiency, regulatory environment, and infrastructure. The aid for trade, in terms of technical and financial assistance, should also be enhanced for the development of infrastructure, including roads, railways, ports, bridges, and border posts.

An empirical analysis on the impact of environmental regulations on pork trade:evidence from China

This paper uses the gravity model to examine the effect of environmental regulations on pork trade flows between different regions within China.We apply a linear programming tool to estimate pork trade flows from 2000 to 2008,and discuss the environmental acts on livestock pollution and income level to proxy environmental regulations.We use OLS regression and panel data with dummy variable in the cross-sectional GLS estimation.Our results indicate that the gap of environmental regulations between trade partners has a positive relationship with pork trade flows,and the difference in environmental regulations changes the traditional comparative advantage pattern to some extent.This paper provides convincing evidence for the pollution haven effect on livestock in China.

Estimating Trade Mis-invoicing from China:2000-2005

An examination of available data reveals large trade misinvoicing between China and its trade partners. The analysis finds a net trade misinvoicing of US$287.6bn between 2000 and 2005, while the full magnitude of unrecorded trade is estimated at US$1.4tn. China needs to establish more effective management of its international trade flows. At the same time, the international community needs to provide more effective governance mechanisms to address trade misinvoicing.

A New Global Auto Industry?

This paper brings together a number of robust trade models to shed some light on the likely evolution of the global automotive industry. Vertical product differentiation, intra-industry trade and fragmentation of production leading to international outsourcing are important features of the existing global automotive sector. The global automotive sector will most likely experience groundbreaking changes over the coming decades. The sector is confronted with a multidimensional technological revolution spurred by radical product innovation, shifts in customer demand and government incentives. A dominant driver will be growing public concern about climate change. China and India might well become leading players by 2050, if not earlier.