This paper explains the root cause of China＇s trade surplus and argues that it is rooted in structural factors. China＇s dual economic structure and the relatively slow growth in wages due to the abundant supply of l...This paper explains the root cause of China＇s trade surplus and argues that it is rooted in structural factors. China＇s dual economic structure and the relatively slow growth in wages due to the abundant supply of labor have led to a large supply glut between China＇s domestic demand and output, which has been balanced by export. This is a structural problem that cannot be solved by currency appreciation or the readjustment of capital account deficits. A potentially viable option is to adjust the current account by developing a new opening-up system featuring more freedom and compliance.展开更多
China's trade surplus in the first three quarters shrank 2.6 percent,or US＄4.92 billion,to US＄180.9 billion from a year earlier,despite a jump in September. The September surplus rose 22.59 percent year-on-year ...China's trade surplus in the first three quarters shrank 2.6 percent,or US＄4.92 billion,to US＄180.9 billion from a year earlier,despite a jump in September. The September surplus rose 22.59 percent year-on-year to US＄29.3 billion,the third month of continuous gains.In August,the surplus was US＄28.69 billion.In July,it was US＄25.28 billion.展开更多
China＇s trade surplus will top US$100 billion in the first half of the year, up 60% on the same period of last year, ananalyst with the General Administration of Customs told Xinhua.
Almost everyone was surprised when the China Customs released the latest export and import statistics on April, 10th:6.87 billion US dollars,China’s favorable balance of trade in March.But only one month earlier,the ...Almost everyone was surprised when the China Customs released the latest export and import statistics on April, 10th:6.87 billion US dollars,China’s favorable balance of trade in March.But only one month earlier,the trade展开更多
China’s trade surplus probablyfell for a fourth straight month,increasing the likelihood of moregovernment measures to sustainthe economy’s expansion ratherthan stamp out inflation.
Measuring global trade in line with the principle of 'the country of origin' fails to reflect the complexities of global commerce where the design, manufacturing and assembly of products involve several countr...Measuring global trade in line with the principle of 'the country of origin' fails to reflect the complexities of global commerce where the design, manufacturing and assembly of products involve several countries,展开更多
The past four years have seen China’s trade surplus soar. It accounted for 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006.Indications are that this will exceed 10 percent in 2007.Given the swelling ...The past four years have seen China’s trade surplus soar. It accounted for 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006.Indications are that this will exceed 10 percent in 2007.Given the swelling trade surplus and its rising proportion to the GDP,many people conclude that China’s economy is seriously imbalanced.Li Yang,Director of the Institute of Finance and Banking,the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,recently shared his views on the issue in an article in Wen Hui Bao,a Shanghai-based newspaper.展开更多
Since adopting` the reform and opening-up policy in the late 1970s, China has constantly expanded its foreign trade by giving full play to its comparative advantage in production cost. However, nowadays, problems prev...Since adopting` the reform and opening-up policy in the late 1970s, China has constantly expanded its foreign trade by giving full play to its comparative advantage in production cost. However, nowadays, problems previously camouflaged by high GDP growth have begun to emerge from the woodwork. Externally, China is faced with pressure on the yuan's appreciation resulting from the trade surplus, as well as trade frictions with the United States and the EU. Internally, the problem is excess liquidity due to over $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, coupled with a sizzling stock market and sharply rising housing prices. In a recent interview with 21st Century Business Herald, Professor Justin Yi-fu Lin from China Center for Economic Research, Peking University, who was the first person to introduce the concept of "comparative advantage" to China, responds to the many doubts people have about the theory. Excerpts:展开更多
China’s trade surplus fell to 99.03 billion U.S. dollars in the first half of this year, down 11.8 percent from the same period last year, the General Administration of Customs said on July 10th.
The sustaining trade surplus in China has arrested more and more attentions and concerns. The industrial structure upgrading and wage rise should have kept down the trend of comparative advantage and surplus growth, b...The sustaining trade surplus in China has arrested more and more attentions and concerns. The industrial structure upgrading and wage rise should have kept down the trend of comparative advantage and surplus growth, but unfortunately in vain. This paper presents a theoretical framework, which is explaining the reason from SBTC induced along by FDI. In the short run, taking some outsourcing linkage home will increase the skill demand, while in the long term, skill supply will increase since the wage rise will incentive the edge skill labour, and therefore, the skill premium increase will be suppressed, comparative advantage and trade surplus sustained.展开更多
A pegged exchange rate regime has been pivotal to China＇s export-led development strategy. However, its huge trade surpluses and massive build up of international reserves have been matched by large deficits for majo...A pegged exchange rate regime has been pivotal to China＇s export-led development strategy. However, its huge trade surpluses and massive build up of international reserves have been matched by large deficits for major trading partners, creating acute policy concerns abroad, especially in the USA. This paper provides a straighOeorward conceptual framework for interpreting the effect of China＇s exchange rate policy on its own trade balance and that of trading partners in the context of discrepant economic growth rates. It shows how pegging the exchange rate when output is outstripping expenditure induces China＇ s trade surpluses and counterpart deficits for its trading partners. An important corollary is that given its strictly regulated capital account, China＇s persistently large surpluses imply a significantly undervalued renminbi, which should gradually become more flexible.展开更多
China became a full member of the WTO on 11 December 2001. China has not only increased its presence in mainstream world trade but has gained knowledge about the basic rules of market economies and become more adaptab...China became a full member of the WTO on 11 December 2001. China has not only increased its presence in mainstream world trade but has gained knowledge about the basic rules of market economies and become more adaptable to changes in the international economy. As a new member of the WTO, being adaptable to changes in the international economy is essential. As a large developing country, China, with its rapid economic growth, huge volume of trade and substantial market potential, has exerted and will continue to exert profound influence on the world economy. It is commonly recognized that China＇s influence cannot be ignored in the world economy. Five years since its accession to the WTO, China is considering where it stands as a member of the WTO. What does China hope to achieve by being a member of the WTO, how can these hopes be shared among all trading partners, what is China＇s responsibility in this, and what are the responsibilities of other trading partners ？展开更多
As of October 2018,almost half of US imports of goods from China are subject to new US tariffs at various rates,mostly at 10%until the year-end of 2018,when the rates were scheduled to be raised to 25%.These tariff ra...As of October 2018,almost half of US imports of goods from China are subject to new US tariffs at various rates,mostly at 10%until the year-end of 2018,when the rates were scheduled to be raised to 25%.These tariff rates will prove to be prohibitive for most if not all of the US imports from China.Assuming that US imports from China will be reduced by half,the initial direct real impact on the Chinese economy may be estimated at a loss of 0.43%of GDP.If indirect effects are included,the full real impact may be estimated at a maximum loss of 1.12%of Chinese GDP.These estimated impacts are relatively small and quite manageable.There is a possibility that the scope of the US tariffs may be expanded to cover all US imports from China,in which case the full negative economic impact will be doubled,but still leaving an expected rate of economic growth in excess of 4%.The Renminbi is not likely to be significantly devalued as a result of the trade war.However,there are also longer-term underlying forces at work behind the China–US trade war–the competition for economic and technological dominance and the rise of populism,isolationism,nationalism and protectionism.It is important for China–US relations,and China’s relations with the rest of the world,in particular with the European Union,Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN),Japan and Russia,to be carefully managed going forward.展开更多
文摘This paper explains the root cause of China＇s trade surplus and argues that it is rooted in structural factors. China＇s dual economic structure and the relatively slow growth in wages due to the abundant supply of labor have led to a large supply glut between China＇s domestic demand and output, which has been balanced by export. This is a structural problem that cannot be solved by currency appreciation or the readjustment of capital account deficits. A potentially viable option is to adjust the current account by developing a new opening-up system featuring more freedom and compliance.
文摘China's trade surplus in the first three quarters shrank 2.6 percent,or US＄4.92 billion,to US＄180.9 billion from a year earlier,despite a jump in September. The September surplus rose 22.59 percent year-on-year to US＄29.3 billion,the third month of continuous gains.In August,the surplus was US＄28.69 billion.In July,it was US＄25.28 billion.
文摘China＇s trade surplus will top US$100 billion in the first half of the year, up 60% on the same period of last year, ananalyst with the General Administration of Customs told Xinhua.
文摘Almost everyone was surprised when the China Customs released the latest export and import statistics on April, 10th:6.87 billion US dollars,China’s favorable balance of trade in March.But only one month earlier,the trade
文摘China’s trade surplus probablyfell for a fourth straight month,increasing the likelihood of moregovernment measures to sustainthe economy’s expansion ratherthan stamp out inflation.
文摘Measuring global trade in line with the principle of 'the country of origin' fails to reflect the complexities of global commerce where the design, manufacturing and assembly of products involve several countries,
文摘The past four years have seen China’s trade surplus soar. It accounted for 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006.Indications are that this will exceed 10 percent in 2007.Given the swelling trade surplus and its rising proportion to the GDP,many people conclude that China’s economy is seriously imbalanced.Li Yang,Director of the Institute of Finance and Banking,the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,recently shared his views on the issue in an article in Wen Hui Bao,a Shanghai-based newspaper.
文摘Since adopting` the reform and opening-up policy in the late 1970s, China has constantly expanded its foreign trade by giving full play to its comparative advantage in production cost. However, nowadays, problems previously camouflaged by high GDP growth have begun to emerge from the woodwork. Externally, China is faced with pressure on the yuan's appreciation resulting from the trade surplus, as well as trade frictions with the United States and the EU. Internally, the problem is excess liquidity due to over $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, coupled with a sizzling stock market and sharply rising housing prices. In a recent interview with 21st Century Business Herald, Professor Justin Yi-fu Lin from China Center for Economic Research, Peking University, who was the first person to introduce the concept of "comparative advantage" to China, responds to the many doubts people have about the theory. Excerpts:
文摘China’s trade surplus fell to 99.03 billion U.S. dollars in the first half of this year, down 11.8 percent from the same period last year, the General Administration of Customs said on July 10th.
文摘The sustaining trade surplus in China has arrested more and more attentions and concerns. The industrial structure upgrading and wage rise should have kept down the trend of comparative advantage and surplus growth, but unfortunately in vain. This paper presents a theoretical framework, which is explaining the reason from SBTC induced along by FDI. In the short run, taking some outsourcing linkage home will increase the skill demand, while in the long term, skill supply will increase since the wage rise will incentive the edge skill labour, and therefore, the skill premium increase will be suppressed, comparative advantage and trade surplus sustained.
文摘A pegged exchange rate regime has been pivotal to China＇s export-led development strategy. However, its huge trade surpluses and massive build up of international reserves have been matched by large deficits for major trading partners, creating acute policy concerns abroad, especially in the USA. This paper provides a straighOeorward conceptual framework for interpreting the effect of China＇s exchange rate policy on its own trade balance and that of trading partners in the context of discrepant economic growth rates. It shows how pegging the exchange rate when output is outstripping expenditure induces China＇ s trade surpluses and counterpart deficits for its trading partners. An important corollary is that given its strictly regulated capital account, China＇s persistently large surpluses imply a significantly undervalued renminbi, which should gradually become more flexible.
文摘China became a full member of the WTO on 11 December 2001. China has not only increased its presence in mainstream world trade but has gained knowledge about the basic rules of market economies and become more adaptable to changes in the international economy. As a new member of the WTO, being adaptable to changes in the international economy is essential. As a large developing country, China, with its rapid economic growth, huge volume of trade and substantial market potential, has exerted and will continue to exert profound influence on the world economy. It is commonly recognized that China＇s influence cannot be ignored in the world economy. Five years since its accession to the WTO, China is considering where it stands as a member of the WTO. What does China hope to achieve by being a member of the WTO, how can these hopes be shared among all trading partners, what is China＇s responsibility in this, and what are the responsibilities of other trading partners ？
文摘As of October 2018,almost half of US imports of goods from China are subject to new US tariffs at various rates,mostly at 10%until the year-end of 2018,when the rates were scheduled to be raised to 25%.These tariff rates will prove to be prohibitive for most if not all of the US imports from China.Assuming that US imports from China will be reduced by half,the initial direct real impact on the Chinese economy may be estimated at a loss of 0.43%of GDP.If indirect effects are included,the full real impact may be estimated at a maximum loss of 1.12%of Chinese GDP.These estimated impacts are relatively small and quite manageable.There is a possibility that the scope of the US tariffs may be expanded to cover all US imports from China,in which case the full negative economic impact will be doubled,but still leaving an expected rate of economic growth in excess of 4%.The Renminbi is not likely to be significantly devalued as a result of the trade war.However,there are also longer-term underlying forces at work behind the China–US trade war–the competition for economic and technological dominance and the rise of populism,isolationism,nationalism and protectionism.It is important for China–US relations,and China’s relations with the rest of the world,in particular with the European Union,Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN),Japan and Russia,to be carefully managed going forward.
