Impact of trading hours extensions on foreign exchange volatility:intraday evidence from the Moscow exchange

Using transaction-level tick-by-tick data of same-and next-day settlement of the Russian Ruble versus the US Dollar exchange rate(RUB/USD)traded on the Moscow Exchange Market during the period 2005–2013,we analyze the impact of trading hours extensions on volatility.During the sample period,the Moscow Exchange extended trading hours three times for the same-day settlement and two times for the next-day settlement of the RUB/USD rate.To analyze the effect of the implementations,various measures of historical and realized volatility are calculated for 5-and 15-min intraday intervals spanning a period of three months both prior to and following trading hours extensions.Besides historical volatility measures,we also examine volume and spread.We apply an autoregressive moving average-autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(ARMA-GARCH)model utilizing realized volatility and a trade classification rule to estimate the probability of informed trading.The extensions of trading hours cause a significant increase in both volatility and volume for further analyzing the reasons behind volatility changes.Volatility changes mostly occur after the opening of the market.The length of the extension has a significant positive effect on realized volatility.The results indicate that informed trading increased substantially after the opening for the rate of same-day settlement,whereas this is not observed for next-day settlement.Although trading hours extensions raise opportunities for more transactions and liquidity in foreign exchange markets,they may also lead to higher volatility in the market.Furthermore,this distortion is more significant at opening and midday.A potential explanation for the increased volatility mostly at the opening is that the trading hours extension attracts informed traders rather than liquidity providers.

The Influence of Bond Market Opening in Trade Field on RMB Internationalization Foreign Exchange Rate

In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.Firstly,the data source processing method of empirical analysis is introduced.Then the dynamic panel data regression model and panel threshold model are built to verify the influence factors of RMB internationalization foreign exchange rate and the influence of debt market opening on RMB foreign exchange rate,respectively.The results show that the opening of the creditor's rights market has a significant positive promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate,and the development of the domestic creditor's rights market has a significant promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.The study has a certain role in promoting the status of China's currency in the international community.

Diversification of Foreign Trade Market

T To make its foreign trade market diversified and multi-channeled is an important strategy of China in developing its foreign economic relations and trade. The Ninth Five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and Long-term Target for the Year 2010 adopted at the Fourth Session of the Eighth National People’s Congress, have specified that during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period (1996-2000),

Regulations on Foreign Exchange Adjustment Market

Article 1. The regulations are promulgated in order to improve and develop the foreign exchange adjustment market, speed up the horizontal circulation of capital in foreign exchange and strengthen the macro-control of the foreign exchange market. Article 2. The State Exchange Control Administration is the governing body of the foreign exchange adjustment market.

NEW REGULATIONS OF CHECKING AND WRITING-OFF FOREIGN EXCHANGE PAYMENT FOR TRADE IMPORT

As from March 1,the State Administration of Exchange Con-trol will implement a new "Provisional Regulations of Checking,Writing-off and Supervising Foreign Exchange Payment for TradeImport".This is an important measure of reforming China’s for-eign exchange system, and is an afterwards supervising measure ofguaranteeing orderly proceeding of toreign exchange payment fortrade import after the exchange of regular items.One of the purpose of carrying out the new regulations is toform an afterwards supervising mechanism for foreign exchangeimport payment of regular items which guarantees the authenticityof foreign exchange import payment and orderly proceeding theexchange of Renminbi regular items;secondly,through examiningand verifying documents of foreign exchange import payment,veri-

Empirical Analysis on the Influencing Factors of China’s Total Foreign Trade

On the occasion of the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, China’s economic growth level has steadily risen and its international status has gradually improved. However, as the global economic downturn, China is facing tremendous challenges and pressures in the international economic and financial markets. The turbulence of foreign trade and international financial markets has put forward greater requirements for the flexibility of China’s financial strategy. Based on the annual data of China’s total foreign trade, exchange rate, commodity retail price index and the proportion of tertiary industry from 2002 to 2017, this paper constructs a multiple regression model to analyze the main influencing factors of China’s total foreign trade. The empirical results show that there is a positive relationship between the commodities retail price index and the total foreign trade, a negative relationship between the proportion of tertiary industry and the total foreign trade, and a positive relationship between the exchange rate of RMB (taking US dollar as an example) and the total foreign trade. On the basis of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward suggestions on relevant financial policies.

Recent Experience of the Effects of Intervention on Exchange Rates

Recently, foreign exchange rates have been highly volatile all over the world. This article reports on an empirical examination of the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention in Tokyo foreign exchange market. In Japan, intervention in the foreign exchange market has occurred frequently and largely. In 2010, exchange rates fluctuated greatly, and the Japanese yen appreciated greatly against other foreign currencies. The Bank of Japan （BOJ） conducted an intervention in the foreign exchange market and bought massive USD to weaken the yen. They are expected to prevent too much appreciation of the yen, to promote export, and expansion of the economy. Recent foreign exchange market intervention in Tokyo has been effective in preventing the Japanese yen from appreciating against other currencies. Also, unsterilization has had a positive effect on depreciation of the yen. Moreover, news announcements by the Bank of Japan （BOJ） has led to depreciation of the yen. Effective announcements would increase the effects on markets. Sterilization in intervention and market communication are both taken into account in this article. The BOJ＇s news announcements seem to convey to markets adequately and communication between the bank and markets functions well. Moreover, the past exchange rate （i.e., the signaling effect） also is important to the movement of exchange rates. On the other hand, portfolio channel is not found

To Accomplish the Unaccomplished Reform： Lessons and Options of RMB Exchange Rate Reform

The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.

Shanghai Lan Sheng Corp.—First Chinese Foreign Trade Company Listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange

The Shanghai Lan Sheng Corp., which used to be called the Shanghai Stationery and Sporting Goods Import and Export Company, touched off great repercussions in the international mass media and among its counterparts after it was renamed after its general manager Zhang Lansheng and its stocks were listed for transactions on

China Foreign Exchange Trade System Opens in Shanghai

The China Foreign Exchange Trade System, the only national foreign exchange trading institution in China, officially opened for business at 15 Shanghai Bund, Shanghai, on April 18 this year. It marked the start of the first market prices for foreign exchange in the country. The opening of the system means that the relationship between

数字经济发展对区域创新效率的影响机制研究——基于对外贸易和市场竞争的实证分析

数字赋能千行百业高质量发展,数字经济已成为中国全面建设社会主义现代化国家的重要引擎。基于2011—2020年中国省级面板数据,构建固定效应、中介效应和调节效应模型,从区域层面研究数字经济发展提升创新效率的影响机制。研究发现:当创新效率为被解释变量时,数字经济发展水平的回归系数显著为正,但东部、中部和西部地区的数字经济发展对创新效率的作用效果存在差异;对外贸易具有良好的中介效应,数字经济发展可以有效推动中国对外贸易来提升创新效率;市场竞争具有良好的调节效应,说明市场竞争程度越低的区域,数字经济发展对其创新效率的作用程度越高。

数字经济助推对外贸易高质量发展——基于广东省21个地级市的实证研究

数字经济作为推动经济高质量发展的重要引擎,为提升对外贸易规模和质量注入强大的驱动力。以广东省为例,利用2011-2022年该省21个地级市面板数据,从理论维度与实证维度分析数字经济对对外贸易高质量发展的影响,结果表明:数字经济能够显著促进广东省对外贸易高质量发展,该结论具有稳健性。异质性检验表明,数字经济对非珠三角地区对外贸易高质量发展具有明显的“雪中送炭”效果。机制检验表明,数字经济能够通过技术创新效应、产业升级效应、市场开放效应助推对外贸易高质量发展。门槛效应分析表明,当数字金融发展水平处于较低阶段时,数字经济对对外贸易高质量发展的促进作用较小;当数字金融发展水平超过特定阈值后,数字经济对对外贸易高质量发展的促进作用才会明显扩大。因此要加强数字基础设施的建设,加大高技术领域的研发投入,制定合理的产业政策,营造良好的营商环境,重点提升欠发达地区的数字经济水平,提高数字金融和普惠金融的覆盖度,以更好地发挥数字经济对对外贸易高质量发展的助推作用。

基于VAR模型的专业市场与跨境电商融合发展研究

专业市场如何应对电子商务冲击,是近二十年来各界普遍关注的现实问题。跨境电商和市场采购两种新业态新模式已成为我国外贸高质量发展的新引擎,专业市场与跨境电商的关系从冲击应对走向融合发展。浙江省义乌市是专业市场和跨境电商的改革前沿阵地。利用义乌市2008—2022年的时间序列数据,建立向量自回归模型,定量分析专业市场与跨境电商的融合发展关系。结果表明:专业市场生态体系有利于跨境电商“嵌入式”发展,专业市场的持续改革有效应对了跨境电商冲击,但两者融合发展仍缺乏互动效应和长效机制。为进一步促进两者融合发展,应搭建专业市场跨境电商平台、叠加商流和信息流带动产业转型升级、融通跨境电商进口贸易供应链和配套政策。

The Role of Institutions:A Cross-country Analysis of Renminbi Trading in Foreign Exchange Markets

We explore how China's geographically targeted policies impact RMB overseas use individually or in combination.The policies include swap agreements,clearing banks,investment quotas,and direct trading between Chinese renminbi(RMB)and non-USD currencies.Adopting a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis and using Bank of International Settlements cross-country data on foreign exchange markets,we find that institution building has lowered the barriers to international adoption of the RMB.Specifically,for countries economically close to China,high RMB trading is explained by either(i)having a clearing bank in the host market and direct quotations between the RMB and the local currency,or(ii)being a financial center and having access to the Chinese capital market.This combination of policies is explained by the creation of(i)"trading posts"that provide RMB liquidity abroad,and(ii)channels that allow actors to " recycle" offshore RMB funds.We triangulate our results with interviews conducted with senior People’s Bank of China officials.

外贸企业由外循环为主转向内循环为主的现实梗阻、经验启示与对策建议

加快内外贸一体化发展是构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的内在要求。为此,基于自身发展与外部环境,外贸企业亟须由外循环为主转向内循环为主,实现内外贸融合发展。当前,由于客场全球化的全球价值链参与模式、国内市场的隐形分割、内外贸管理体制的差异导致外贸企业转型面临一系列现实梗阻。为此,一方面从外贸企业内在动力出发,以双循环标杆企业“苏美达股份有限公司”为例,重点剖析、梳理并总结其从外循环转内循环的阶段性事实演变、成功做法与经验启示,为其他外贸企业转型提供借鉴;另一方面,从政策外在推力角度出发,提出了紧抓内外贸一体化的政策契机、促进规则与标准统一,加快建设统一大市场、降低国内市场的隐形壁垒,充分发挥开放平台的作用、打造内外贸融合发展的制度高地,多措并举系统施策、强化金融财税等各项政策支持力度的对策建议。

Is the Renminbi a Global Currency?An Evaluation Based on Offshore Foreign Exchange Market Trading Patterns

This article provides a new framework to evaluate the status of Renminbi internationalization.It proposes that the trading patterns of a currency in the global foreign exchange market embody the currency’s position in the international monetary system.Based on foreign exchange trading data provided by CLS Group,the article constructs a ranking of major international currencies including the Renminbi.It finds that the Renminbi shares more similarities in foreign exchange trading patterns with the established global currencies like the US dollar and the Euro than with those regional currencies.The article also explores the policy implications that the new evaluation approach provides.

数据要素赋能内外贸一体化:内在机理与实践进路

内外贸一体化是数字时代下流通领域实践探索的前沿方向。数据要素作为动力引擎,为内外贸一体化提供全新的赋能路径。数据要素赋能内外贸一体化的内在机理分别是通过优化要素流动,促进内外贸市场资源共享;通过加快联动管理,深化内外贸流通体制改革;通过提高流通算力,推进内外贸流通渠道衔接;通过升级生产技术,加强内外贸企业供给创新。赋能进程也存在一些现实困境,如国际贸易保护主义抬头与国内需求疲软、内外贸税收政策与结算模式仍存在差异、内外贸标准规则认证与监管体系有差别、内外贸业务模式与市场开拓渠道不同等。相应地,数据要素赋能内外贸一体化的实践进路体现为新业态新模式激活国内需求市场、提升对外开放水平和供应链韧性、制定统一的内外贸财政金融政策、推进内外贸行政联动管理数字化和促进内外贸企业内部建设智能化。

新发展格局下我国企业内外贸一体化的对策建议

新发展格局的构建为我国企业内外贸一体化提供了重要契机,面对国内外市场环境的深刻变化,我国企业正积极探索内外贸一体化的新路径,在此背景下,深入分析企业内外贸一体化发展的现状与挑战十分必要。我国企业内外贸一体化在推进过程中面临着市场准入壁垒、信内外贸分割等问题。针对这些问题,本文提出在政策方面,加大政策力度、改善国内营销环境、优化产业结构;市场方面,加快构建全国统一大市场、降低流通成本、大力发展跨境电子商务、培养复合型人才;企业方面,调整发展方式、加快流通渠道建设、转变发展观念,以适应市场需求的变化。综上所述,新发展格局下,我国企业内外贸一体化的发展需要政府、企业及国际市场多方面的共同努力,通过实施上述对策建议,可以有效推动内外贸一体化进程,助力我国经济实现高质量发展。

中国纺织外贸企业面临的多重冲击及应对策略

随着近年来国际贸易环境的变化和国际市场竞争的加剧,中国纺织外贸企业面临诸多困境和挑战,如原料成本增大、汇率波动起伏、国际船运紧张、市场需求不稳定等。但各种稳外贸措施的出台、对东盟及“一带一路”沿线各国进出口贸易的持续增长、海外仓及多式联运货运方式的发展也给中国纺织外贸企业带来新机遇。鉴于此,政府应加强对纺织行业的规范管理,建立解决贸易壁垒的专门机构,中国纺织外贸企业要建数字外贸平台、树品牌形象、开拓多元市场、利用好海外营商环境等,多措并举,才能转危为机,更好地在全球纺织行业站稳脚跟。