Bus Arrival Time Prediction Based on Mixed Model

How to predict the bus arrival time accurately is a crucial problem to be solved in Internet of Vehicle. Existed methods cannot solve the problem effectively for ignoring the traffic delay jitter. In this paper,a three-stage mixed model is proposed for bus arrival time prediction. The first stage is pattern training. In this stage,the traffic delay jitter patterns(TDJP)are mined by K nearest neighbor and K-means in the historical traffic time data. The second stage is the single-step prediction,which is based on real-time adjusted Kalman filter with a modification of historical TDJP. In the third stage,as the influence of historical law is increasing in long distance prediction,we combine the single-step prediction dynamically with Markov historical transfer model to conduct the multi-step prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed single-step prediction model performs better in accuracy and efficiency than short-term traffic flow prediction and dynamic Kalman filter. The multi-step prediction provides a higher level veracity and reliability in travel time forecasting than short-term traffic flow and historical traffic pattern prediction models.

Delay Estimates of Mixed Traffic Flow at Signalized Intersections in China

Two characteristics of Chinese mixed traffic invalidate the conventional queuing delay estimates for western countries. First, the driving characteristics of Chinese drivers lead to different delays even though the other conditions are the same. Second, urban traffic flow in China is often hindered by pedestrians at intersections, such that imported intelligent traffic control systems do not work appropriately. Typical delay estimates for Chinese conditions were obtained from data for over 500 vehicle queues in Beijing collected using charge coupled device （CCD） cameras. The results show that the delays mainly depend on the pro- portion and positions of heavy vehicles in the queue, as well as the start-up situations （with or without interference）. A simplified delay estimation model considers vehicle types and positions that compares well with the observed traffic delays.

Optimization of Adaptive Transit Signal Priority Using Parallel Genetic Algorithm

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal timing is one of the most complex problems in traffic control systems. This paper presents an adaptive transit signal priority （TSP） strategy that applies the parallel genetic algorithm （PGA） to optimize adaptive traffic signal control in the presence of TSP. The method can optimize the phase plan, cycle length, and green splits at isolated intersections with consideration for the performance of both the transit and the general vehicles. A VISSIM （VISual SIMulation） simulation testbed was developed to evaluate the performance of the proposed PGA-based adaptive traffic signal control with TSP. The simulation results show that the PGA-based optimizer for adaptive TSP outperformed the fully actuated NEMA control in all test cases. The results also show that the PGA-based optimizer can produce TSP timing plans that benefit the transit vehicles while minimizing the impact of TSP on the general vehicles.

A case study on multi-lane roundabouts under congestion:Comparing software capacity and delay estimates with field data

Existing studies on modern roundabouts performance are mostly based on data fron： singe lane roundabouts that are not heavily congested. For planners and designers interested in building multilane roundabouts for intersections with potential growth i~ future traffic, there has been a lack of existing studies with field data that provide reference values in terms of capacity and delay measurements. With the intent of providing such reference values, a case study was conducted by using the East DowlinC Road Roundabouts in Anchorage, Alaska, which are currently operating with extensive queues during the evening peak hours. This research used multiple video camcorders t（ capture vehicle turning movements at the roundabouts as well as the progressior~ of vehicle queues at the roundabout entrance approaches. With these video records, the number of vehicles in the queues can be accurately counted in any single minute during the peak hours. This study shows that unbalanced entrance flow patterns （i.e., ~ne entrance has significant higher flow than others） can intensify the queue and delay fo., the overall roundabouts. Then various software packages including RODEL, SIDRA and VISSIM were used to estimate several performance measurements, such as capacity. queue length, and delay, compared with the collected field data. With the comparison, it is found that all the three software packages overestimate multi-lane roundabout ca pacity before calibration. With default parameters, SIDRA and VISSIM tend to underes timate delays and queue lengths for the multi-lane roundabouts under congestion, while RODEL results in higher delay and queue length estimations at most of the entrance approaches.