An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.

Prediction of Traffic Volume of Motor Vehicles Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Technology

Urban traffic volume detection is an essential part of trafficplanning in terms of urban planning in China. To improve the statisticsefficiency of road traffic volume, this thesis proposes a method for predictingmotor vehicle traffic volume on urban roads in small and medium-sizedcities during the traffic peak hour by using mobile signal technology. Themethod is verified through simulation experiments, and the limitations andthe improvement methods are discussed. This research can be divided intothree parts: Firstly, the traffic patterns of small and medium-sized cities areobtained through a questionnaire survey. A total of 19745 residents weresurveyed in Luohe, a medium-sized city in China and five travel modes oflocal people were obtained. Secondly, after the characteristics of residents’rest and working time are investigated, a method is proposed in this studyfor the distribution of urban residential and working places based on mobilephone signaling technology. Finally, methods for predicting traffic volume ofthese travel modes are proposed after the characteristics of these travel modesand methods for the distribution of urban residential and working placesare analyzed. Based on the actual traffic volume data observed at offlineintersections, the project team takes Luohe city as the research object and itverifies the accuracy of the prediction method by comparing the predictiondata. The prediction simulation results of traffic volume show that the averageerror rate of traffic volume is unstable. The error rate ranges from 10% to 30%.In this thesis, simulation experiments and field investigations are adopted toanalyze why these errors occur.

A Hybrid Geostatistical Method for Estimating Citywide Traffic Volumes - A Case Study of Edmonton, Canada

Traffic volume information has long played an important role in many transportation related works,such as traffic operations,roadway design,air quality control,and policy making.However,monitoring traffic volumes over a large spatial area is not an easy task due to the significant amount of time and manpower required to collect such large-scale datasets.In this study,a hybrid geostatistical approach,named Network Regression Kriging,has been developed to estimate urban traffic volumes by incorporating auxiliary variables such as road type,speed limit,and network accessibility.Since standard kriging is based on Euclidean distances,this study implements road network distances to improve traffic volumes estimations.A case study using 10-year of traffic volume data collected within the city of Edmonton was conducted to demonstrate the robustness of the model developed herein.Results suggest that the proposed hybrid model significantly outperforms the standard kriging method in terms of accuracy by 4.0%overall,especially for a large-scale network.It was also found that the necessary stationarity assumption for kriging did not hold true for a large network whereby separate estimations for each road type performed significantly better than a general estimation for the overall network by 4.12%.

Long-term Traffic Volume Prediction Based on K-means Gaussian Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets

This paper uses Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy se theory on historical traffic volume data processing to obtain a 24-hour prediction of traffic volume with high precision. A K-means clustering method is used in this paper to get 5 minutes traffic volume variation as input data for the Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets which can reflect the distribution of historical traffic volume in one statistical period. Moreover, the cluster with the largest collection of data obtained by K-means clustering method is calculated to get the key parameters of type-2 fuzzy sets, mean and standard deviation of the Gaussian membership function.Using the range of data as the input of Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets leads to the range of traffic volume forecasting output with the ability of describing the possible range of the traffic volume as well as the traffic volume prediction data with high accuracy. The simulation results show that the average relative error is reduced to 8% based on the combined K-means Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets forecasting method. The fluctuation range in terms of an upper and a lower forecasting traffic volume completely envelopes the actual traffic volume and reproduces the fluctuation range of traffic flow.

Air Traffic Volume and Air Traffic Control Human Errors

Navigable airspaces are becoming more crowded with increasing air traffic, and the number of accidents caused by human errors is increasing. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the relationship between air traffic volume and human error in air traffic control (ATC). First, the paper identifies categories and elements of ATC human error through a review of existing literature, and a study through interviews and surveys of ATC safety experts. And then the paper presents the results of an experiment conducted on 52 air traffic controllers sampled from the Korean ATC organization to find out if there is any relationship between traffic volume and air traffic controller human errors. An analysis of the experiment clearly showed that several types of ATC human error are influenced by traffic volume. We hope that the paper will make its contribution to aviation safety by providing a realistic basis for securing proper manpower and facility in accordance with the level of air traffic volume.

Prediction of Railway Passenger Traffic Volume

The current situation of the railway passenger traffic (RPT) and the traffic marketing is analyzed. The grey model theory is adopted to establish a prediction model for the railway passenger traffic volume (RPTV).The RPTV from 2001 to 2005 is predicted with the proposed model, and a few suggestions are put forward.

Transit Bus and Pedestrian Safety Analysis in the Context of Operator Improvements and Traffic Volume Assessment

Pedestrian safety related to public bus transit is an integral part of promoting sustainability especially in the urban setting. This concept has received significant attention within the last decade as transit agencies strive to make their systems more sustainable and safer at the same time. This study examined pedestrian collisions related to public transit buses in Philadelphia over a three-year study period from 2008 to 2011. The objective is to perform a detailed analysis on crash records, which provides the foundation on statistics for bus-pedestrian collision to allow for future studies in modeling work in this field. Results of this research provided insights on bus-pedestrian collisions in terms of bus maneuver, cause of crash, impact point of bus, and relation to hourly traffic volume. A strong correlation was found between traffic volume and bus-pedestrian collision rate in terms of hours of the day. For any given hour, an increase in collision frequency was found if the traffic volume exceeds a threshold of 5% of its average annual daily traffic. This serves as an indicator of locations that pedestrians are vulnerable at. Analyses were conducted to the fullest extent allowable by the limited dataset. This study presents findings that can be future developed and investigated in future studies. Additionally, countermeasures are recommended in each section that presents a critical area to address.

Comparison between Neural Network and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Forecasting Chaotic Traffic Volumes

This paper applies both the neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for forecasting short-term chaotic traffic volumes and compares the results. The architecture of the neural network consists of the input vector, one hidden layer and output layer. Bayesian regularization is employed to obtain the effective number of neurons in the hidden layer. The input variables and target of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system are the same as those of the neural network. The data clustering technique is used to group data points so that the membership functions will be more tailored to the input data, which in turn greatly reduces the number of fuzzy rules. Numerical results indicate that these two models have almost the same accuracy, while the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system takes more time to train. It is also shown that although the effective number of neurons in the hidden layer is less than half the number of the input elements, the neural network can have satisfactory performance.

Analysis and modeling of highway truck traffic volume variations during severe winter weather conditions in Canada

This paper investigates the impact of cold and snow on daily and hourly truck traffic volume on a primary highway in Alberta, Canada. This research is based on a detailed case study of 5 years of weigh-in-motion data recorded continuously at Leduc site on Highway 2A. Influence of the winter conditions on truck type distribution is examined by classifying trucks into single-unit trucks, single-trailer, and multi-trailer units. It is evident from the study that proportion of the three truck classes in the total truck traffic remained essentially stable over the study period （2005-2009）. Dummy-variable regression models are used to relate daily and hourly truck traffic volume with snowfall and categorized cold as independent variables. The statistical significance of all the independent variables used in the model is established by conducting tests such as R2, F test, incremental F test, and t test. The study results suggested that the truck volume is not significantly affected by the normal snowfall or the typical cold temperatures, i.e., average daily snowfall about less than 15 cm or temperatures higher than -25 ℃ are not likely to affect the truck traffic patterns. It is believed that the findings of this study can benefit highway agencies in developing programs and policies for efficient monitoring of truck traffic throughout the year and snow removal during the winter season in Canada.

A Light Weight Traffic Volume Prediction Approach Based on Finite Traffic Volume Data

As one of the key technologies of intelligent transportation systems, short-term traffic volume prediction plays an increasingly important role in solving urban traffic problems. In the last decade, many approaches were proposed for the traffic volume prediction from different perspectives. However, most of these approaches are based on a large amount of historical data. When there are only finite collected traffic data, they cannot be well trained, so the prediction accuracy of these approaches will be poor. In this paper, a tensor model is proposed to capture the change patterns of continuous traffic volumes. From collected traffic volume data, the element data are extracted to update the corresponding elements of the tensor model. Then, a tucker decomposition and gradient descent based algorithm is employed to impute the missing elements of the tensor model. After missing element imputation, the tensor model can be directly applied to the short-term traffic volume prediction through searching the corresponding elements of the model and the storage cost of the model is low. Our model is evaluated on real traffic volume data from PeMS dataset, which indicates that our model has higher traffic volume prediction accuracy than other approaches in the situation of finite traffic volume data.

Spatiotemporal Prediction of Urban Traffics Based on Deep GNN

Traffic prediction already plays a significant role in applications like traffic planning and urban management,but it is still difficult to capture the highly non-linear and complicated spatiotemporal correlations of traffic data.As well as to fulfil both long-termand short-termprediction objectives,a better representation of the temporal dependency and global spatial correlation of traffic data is needed.In order to do this,the Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network(S-GNN)is proposed in this research as amethod for traffic prediction.The S-GNN simultaneously accepts various traffic data as inputs and investigates the non-linear correlations between the variables.In terms of modelling,the road network is initially represented as a spatiotemporal directed graph,with the features of the samples at the time step being captured by a convolution module.In order to assign varying attention weights to various adjacent area nodes of the target node,the adjacent areas information of nodes in the road network is then aggregated using a graph network.The data is output using a fully connected layer at the end.The findings show that S-GNN can improve short-and long-term traffic prediction accuracy to a greater extent;in comparison to the control model,the RMSE of S-GNN is reduced by about 0.571 to 9.288 and the MAE(Mean Absolute Error)by about 0.314 to 7.678.The experimental results on two real datasets,Pe MSD7(M)and PEMS-BAY,also support this claim.

Semantic Consistency and Correctness Verification of Digital Traffic Rules

The consensus of the automotive industry and traffic management authorities is that autonomous vehicles must follow the same traffic laws as human drivers.Using formal or digital methods,natural language traffic rules can be translated into machine language and used by autonomous vehicles.In this paper,a translation flow is designed.Beyond the translation,a deeper examination is required,because the semantics of natural languages are rich and complex,and frequently contain hidden assumptions.The issue of how to ensure that digital rules are accurate and consistent with the original intent of the traffic rules they represent is both significant and unresolved.In response,we propose a method of formal verification that combines equivalence verification with model checking.Reasonable and reassuring digital traffic rules can be obtained by utilizing the proposed traffic rule digitization flow and verification method.In addition,we offer a number of simulation applications that employ digital traffic rules to assess vehicle violations.The experimental findings indicate that our digital rules utilizing metric temporal logic(MTL)can be easily incorporated into simulation platforms and autonomous driving systems(ADS).

RUFY4 deletion prevents pathological bone loss by blocking endo-lysosomal trafficking of osteoclasts

Mature osteoclasts degrade bone matrix by exocytosis of active proteases from secretory lysosomes through a ruffled border.However,the molecular mechanisms underlying lysosomal trafficking and secretion in osteoclasts remain largely unknown.Here,we show with GeneChip analysis that RUN and FYVE domain-containing protein 4(RUFY4)is strongly upregulated during osteoclastogenesis.Mice lacking Rufy4 exhibited a high trabecular bone mass phenotype with abnormalities in osteoclast function in vivo.Furthermore,deleting Rufy4 did not affect osteoclast differentiation,but inhibited bone-resorbing activity due to disruption in the acidic maturation of secondary lysosomes,their trafficking to the membrane,and their secretion of cathepsin K into the extracellular space.Mechanistically,RUFY4 promotes late endosome-lysosome fusion by acting as an adaptor protein between Rab7 on late endosomes and LAMP2 on primary lysosomes.Consequently,Rufy4-deficient mice were highly protected from lipopolysaccharide-and ovariectomy-induced bone loss.Thus,RUFY4 plays as a new regulator in osteoclast activity by mediating endo-lysosomal trafficking and have a potential to be specific target for therapies against bone-loss diseases such as osteoporosis.

Traffic Flow Prediction with Heterogeneous Spatiotemporal Data Based on a Hybrid Deep Learning Model Using Attention-Mechanism

A significant obstacle in intelligent transportation systems(ITS)is the capacity to predict traffic flow.Recent advancements in deep neural networks have enabled the development of models to represent traffic flow accurately.However,accurately predicting traffic flow at the individual road level is extremely difficult due to the complex interplay of spatial and temporal factors.This paper proposes a technique for predicting short-term traffic flow data using an architecture that utilizes convolutional bidirectional long short-term memory(Conv-BiLSTM)with attention mechanisms.Prior studies neglected to include data pertaining to factors such as holidays,weather conditions,and vehicle types,which are interconnected and significantly impact the accuracy of forecast outcomes.In addition,this research incorporates recurring monthly periodic pattern data that significantly enhances the accuracy of forecast outcomes.The experimental findings demonstrate a performance improvement of 21.68%when incorporating the vehicle type feature.

Effect of speed humps on instantaneous traffic emissions in a microscopic model with limited deceleration capacity

As a common transportation facility, speed humps can control the speed of vehicles on special road sections to reduce traffic risks. At the same time, they also cause instantaneous traffic emissions. Based on the classic instantaneous traffic emission model and the limited deceleration capacity microscopic traffic flow model with slow-to-start rules, this paper has investigated the impact of speed humps on traffic flow and the instantaneous emissions of vehicle pollutants in a single lane situation. The numerical simulation results have shown that speed humps have significant effects on traffic flow and traffic emissions. In a free-flow region, the increase of speed humps leads to the continuous rise of CO_(2), NO_(X) and PM emissions. Within some density ranges, one finds that these pollutant emissions can evolve into some higher values under some random seeds. Under other random seeds, they can evolve into some lower values. In a wide moving jam region, the emission values of these pollutants sometimes appear as continuous or intermittent phenomenon. Compared to the refined Na Sch model, the present model has lower instantaneous emissions such as CO_(2), NO_(X) and PM and higher volatile organic components(VOC) emissions. Compared to the limited deceleration capacity model without slow-to-start rules, the present model also has lower instantaneous emissions such as CO_(2), NO_(X) and PM and higher VOC emissions in a wide moving jam region. These results can also be confirmed or explained by the statistical values of vehicle velocity and acceleration.

Effects of connected automated vehicle on stability and energy consumption of heterogeneous traffic flow system

With the development of intelligent and interconnected traffic system,a convergence of traffic stream is anticipated in the foreseeable future,where both connected automated vehicle(CAV)and human driven vehicle(HDV)will coexist.In order to examine the effect of CAV on the overall stability and energy consumption of such a heterogeneous traffic system,we first take into account the interrelated perception of distance and speed by CAV to establish a macroscopic dynamic model through utilizing the full velocity difference(FVD)model.Subsequently,adopting the linear stability theory,we propose the linear stability condition for the model through using the small perturbation method,and the validity of the heterogeneous model is verified by comparing with the FVD model.Through nonlinear theoretical analysis,we further derive the KdV-Burgers equation,which captures the propagation characteristics of traffic density waves.Finally,by numerical simulation experiments through utilizing a macroscopic model of heterogeneous traffic flow,the effect of CAV permeability on the stability of density wave in heterogeneous traffic flow and the energy consumption of the traffic system is investigated.Subsequent analysis reveals emergent traffic phenomena.The experimental findings demonstrate that as CAV permeability increases,the ability to dampen the propagation of fluctuations in heterogeneous traffic flow gradually intensifies when giving system perturbation,leading to enhanced stability of the traffic system.Furthermore,higher initial traffic density renders the traffic system more susceptible to congestion,resulting in local clustering effect and stop-and-go traffic phenomenon.Remarkably,the total energy consumption of the heterogeneous traffic system exhibits a gradual decline with CAV permeability increasing.Further evidence has demonstrated the positive influence of CAV on heterogeneous traffic flow.This research contributes to providing theoretical guidance for future CAV applications,aiming to enhance urban road traffic efficiency and alleviate congestion.

Real-Time Prediction of Urban Traffic Problems Based on Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced Mobile Ad Hoc Networks(MANETS)

Traffic in today’s cities is a serious problem that increases travel times,negatively affects the environment,and drains financial resources.This study presents an Artificial Intelligence(AI)augmentedMobile Ad Hoc Networks(MANETs)based real-time prediction paradigm for urban traffic challenges.MANETs are wireless networks that are based on mobile devices and may self-organize.The distributed nature of MANETs and the power of AI approaches are leveraged in this framework to provide reliable and timely traffic congestion forecasts.This study suggests a unique Chaotic Spatial Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Network(CSFPNN)technique to assess real-time data acquired from various sources within theMANETs.The framework uses the proposed approach to learn from the data and create predictionmodels to detect possible traffic problems and their severity in real time.Real-time traffic prediction allows for proactive actions like resource allocation,dynamic route advice,and traffic signal optimization to reduce congestion.The framework supports effective decision-making,decreases travel time,lowers fuel use,and enhances overall urban mobility by giving timely information to pedestrians,drivers,and urban planners.Extensive simulations and real-world datasets are used to test the proposed framework’s prediction accuracy,responsiveness,and scalability.Experimental results show that the suggested framework successfully anticipates urban traffic issues in real-time,enables proactive traffic management,and aids in creating smarter,more sustainable cities.

Anomaly Detection in Imbalanced Encrypted Traffic with Few Packet Metadata-Based Feature Extraction

In the IoT(Internet of Things)domain,the increased use of encryption protocols such as SSL/TLS,VPN(Virtual Private Network),and Tor has led to a rise in attacks leveraging encrypted traffic.While research on anomaly detection using AI(Artificial Intelligence)is actively progressing,the encrypted nature of the data poses challenges for labeling,resulting in data imbalance and biased feature extraction toward specific nodes.This study proposes a reconstruction error-based anomaly detection method using an autoencoder(AE)that utilizes packet metadata excluding specific node information.The proposed method omits biased packet metadata such as IP and Port and trains the detection model using only normal data,leveraging a small amount of packet metadata.This makes it well-suited for direct application in IoT environments due to its low resource consumption.In experiments comparing feature extraction methods for AE-based anomaly detection,we found that using flowbased features significantly improves accuracy,precision,F1 score,and AUC(Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve)score compared to packet-based features.Additionally,for flow-based features,the proposed method showed a 30.17%increase in F1 score and improved false positive rates compared to Isolation Forest and OneClassSVM.Furthermore,the proposedmethod demonstrated a 32.43%higherAUCwhen using packet features and a 111.39%higher AUC when using flow features,compared to previously proposed oversampling methods.This study highlights the impact of feature extraction methods on attack detection in imbalanced,encrypted traffic environments and emphasizes that the one-class method using AE is more effective for attack detection and reducing false positives compared to traditional oversampling methods.

WT-FCTGN:A wavelet-enhanced fully connected time-gated neural network for complex noisy traffic flow modeling

Accurate forecasting of traffic flow provides a powerful traffic decision-making basis for an intelligent transportation system. However, the traffic data's complexity and fluctuation, as well as the noise produced during collecting information and summarizing original data of traffic flow, cause large errors in the traffic flow forecasting results. This article suggests a solution to the above mentioned issues and proposes a fully connected time-gated neural network based on wavelet reconstruction(WT-FCTGN). To eliminate the potential noise and strengthen the potential traffic trend in the data, we adopt the methods of wavelet reconstruction and periodic data introduction to preprocess the data. The model introduces fully connected time-series blocks to model all the information including time sequence information and fluctuation information in the flow of traffic, and establishes the time gate block to comprehend the periodic characteristics of the flow of traffic and predict its flow. The performance of the WT-FCTGN model is validated on the public Pe MS data set. The experimental results show that the WT-FCTGN model has higher accuracy, and its mean absolute error(MAE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and root mean square error(RMSE) are obviously lower than those of the other algorithms. The robust experimental results prove that the WT-FCTGN model has good anti-noise ability.

A Traffic-Aware and Cluster-Based Energy Efficient Routing Protocol for IoT-Assisted WSNs

The seamless integration of intelligent Internet of Things devices with conventional wireless sensor networks has revolutionized data communication for different applications,such as remote health monitoring,industrial monitoring,transportation,and smart agriculture.Efficient and reliable data routing is one of the major challenges in the Internet of Things network due to the heterogeneity of nodes.This paper presents a traffic-aware,cluster-based,and energy-efficient routing protocol that employs traffic-aware and cluster-based techniques to improve the data delivery in such networks.The proposed protocol divides the network into clusters where optimal cluster heads are selected among super and normal nodes based on their residual energies.The protocol considers multi-criteria attributes,i.e.,energy,traffic load,and distance parameters to select the next hop for data delivery towards the base station.The performance of the proposed protocol is evaluated through the network simulator NS3.40.For different traffic rates,number of nodes,and different packet sizes,the proposed protocol outperformed LoRaWAN in terms of end-to-end packet delivery ratio,energy consumption,end-to-end delay,and network lifetime.For 100 nodes,the proposed protocol achieved a 13%improvement in packet delivery ratio,10 ms improvement in delay,and 10 mJ improvement in average energy consumption over LoRaWAN.