The role of development finance institutions in low-income and emerging countries is fundamental to provide long-term capital for investments in climate mitigation and adaptation. Nevertheless, development finance ins...The role of development finance institutions in low-income and emerging countries is fundamental to provide long-term capital for investments in climate mitigation and adaptation. Nevertheless, development finance institutions still lack sound and transparent metrics to assess their projects＇ exposure to climate risks and their impact on global climate action. To attempt to fill this gap, we develop a novel climate stress-test methodology for portfolios of loans to energy infrastructure projects. We apply the methodology to the portfolios of overseas energy projects of two main Chinese policy banks. We estimate their exposure to economic and financial shocks that would result in government inability to introduce timely 2~C-aligned climate policies and from investors＂ inability to adapt their business to the changing climate and policy environment. We find that the negative shocks are mostly concentrated on coal and oil projects and vary across regions from 4.2 to 22 percent of the total loan value. Given the current leverage of Chinese policy banks, these losses could induce severe financial distress, with implications on展开更多
Based on the expanded growth accounting framework,this paper discussed the structural characteristics of China's economic transformation and its related issues and came up with the following conclusions:(1) China&...Based on the expanded growth accounting framework,this paper discussed the structural characteristics of China's economic transformation and its related issues and came up with the following conclusions:(1) China's economic growth has six structural characteristics-- demographic transition,industrial productivity redistribution,income distribution adjustments,increasing urbanization,decreasing capital efficiency and little room for total factor productivity improvement.These factors together may cause a slowdown in economic growth.(2) The risk of economic slowdown in China's economic transformation may be due to the readjustment of income distribution,excessive ineffective investment,increasing economic leverage ratio and fast growing service sector of industrial structure.(3) In response to the potential risks of China's economic slowdown,improving capital efficiency should be the focus of our policy.To establish an inefficient-enterpriseclearing mechanism as well as deepening the reform of corresponding system is the only way to a steady economic growth in the future.展开更多
The configuration of information system security policy is directly related to the information asset risk, and the configuration required by the classified security protection is able to ensure the optimal and minimum...The configuration of information system security policy is directly related to the information asset risk, and the configuration required by the classified security protection is able to ensure the optimal and minimum policy in the corresponding security level. Through the random survey on the information assets of multiple departments, this paper proposes the relative deviation distance of security policy configuration as risk measure parameter based on the distance of information-state transition（DIT） theory. By quantitatively analyzing the information asset weight, deviation degree and DIT, we establish the evaluation model for information system. With example analysis, the results prove that this method conducts effective risk evaluation on the information system intuitively and reliably, avoids the threat caused by subjective measurement, and shows performance benefits compared with existing solutions. It is not only theoretically but also practically feasible to realize the scientific analysis of security risk for the information system.展开更多
文摘The role of development finance institutions in low-income and emerging countries is fundamental to provide long-term capital for investments in climate mitigation and adaptation. Nevertheless, development finance institutions still lack sound and transparent metrics to assess their projects＇ exposure to climate risks and their impact on global climate action. To attempt to fill this gap, we develop a novel climate stress-test methodology for portfolios of loans to energy infrastructure projects. We apply the methodology to the portfolios of overseas energy projects of two main Chinese policy banks. We estimate their exposure to economic and financial shocks that would result in government inability to introduce timely 2~C-aligned climate policies and from investors＂ inability to adapt their business to the changing climate and policy environment. We find that the negative shocks are mostly concentrated on coal and oil projects and vary across regions from 4.2 to 22 percent of the total loan value. Given the current leverage of Chinese policy banks, these losses could induce severe financial distress, with implications on
基金funded by the major project of "Research on Accelerating Economic Restructuring and Promoting Self-coordinated Economic Development"(Approval No.12&ZD084)key project of National Social Science Foundation"Research on Patterns,Evolution Mechanisms and Sustainable Development of China's Urbanization"(Approval No.12AJL009)
文摘Based on the expanded growth accounting framework,this paper discussed the structural characteristics of China's economic transformation and its related issues and came up with the following conclusions:(1) China's economic growth has six structural characteristics-- demographic transition,industrial productivity redistribution,income distribution adjustments,increasing urbanization,decreasing capital efficiency and little room for total factor productivity improvement.These factors together may cause a slowdown in economic growth.(2) The risk of economic slowdown in China's economic transformation may be due to the readjustment of income distribution,excessive ineffective investment,increasing economic leverage ratio and fast growing service sector of industrial structure.(3) In response to the potential risks of China's economic slowdown,improving capital efficiency should be the focus of our policy.To establish an inefficient-enterpriseclearing mechanism as well as deepening the reform of corresponding system is the only way to a steady economic growth in the future.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61662009)the Education Reform Project in Guizhou Province(SJJG201404)the Natural Science Foundation of Guizhou Province Education Department(KY(2015)367)
文摘The configuration of information system security policy is directly related to the information asset risk, and the configuration required by the classified security protection is able to ensure the optimal and minimum policy in the corresponding security level. Through the random survey on the information assets of multiple departments, this paper proposes the relative deviation distance of security policy configuration as risk measure parameter based on the distance of information-state transition（DIT） theory. By quantitatively analyzing the information asset weight, deviation degree and DIT, we establish the evaluation model for information system. With example analysis, the results prove that this method conducts effective risk evaluation on the information system intuitively and reliably, avoids the threat caused by subjective measurement, and shows performance benefits compared with existing solutions. It is not only theoretically but also practically feasible to realize the scientific analysis of security risk for the information system.
