Due to the symbiotic relations between oil and the contemporary Middle East, a global energy transition is bound to affect the Middle East's international status and the power structure among its countries. The po...Due to the symbiotic relations between oil and the contemporary Middle East, a global energy transition is bound to affect the Middle East's international status and the power structure among its countries. The power gap between rich and poor countries will widen, and the “big politics of small states” in countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar may become more prominent. As economic development has become the top priority of national strategies, many hot spots in the Middle East have cooled down as relations between rival countries have eased and there are even signs of multilateral economic cooperation. Meanwhile, there are signs of vicious economic competition among related countries. With the decline of the Middle East's global importance, the United States and Europe are moving further away while the interdependence between Asia and the Middle East is increasing. Reforms to tackle the energy transition in the Middle East are a race against time, difficult, and uncertain, but the signs so far are positive.展开更多
By using the NCEP/NCAR pentad reanalysis data from 1968 to 2009, the variation characteristics of Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and its thermal mechanism during seasonal transition are studied. Results show that the in...By using the NCEP/NCAR pentad reanalysis data from 1968 to 2009, the variation characteristics of Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and its thermal mechanism during seasonal transition are studied. Results show that the intensity and south-north location of MEJS center exhibit obvious seasonal variation characteristics. When MEJS is strong, it is at 27.5°N from the 67 th pentad to the 24 th pentad the following year; when MEJS is weak, it is at 45°N from the 38 th pentad to the 44 th pentad. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) mode of 200-hPa zonal wind field shows that MEJS is mainly over Egypt and Saudi Arabia in winter and over the eastern Black Sea and the eastern Aral Sea in summer. MEJS intensity markedly weakens in summer in comparison with that in winter. The 26th-31 st pentad is the spring-summer transition of MEJS, and the 54th-61 st pentad the autumn-winter transition. During the two seasonal transitions, the temporal variations of the 500-200 hPa south-north temperature difference(SNTD) well match with 200-hPa zonal wind velocity, indicating that the former leads to the latter following the principle of thermal wind. A case analysis shows that there is a close relation between the onset date of Indian summer monsoon and the transition date of MEJS seasonal transition. When the outbreak date of Indian summer monsoon is earlier than normal, MEJS moves northward earlier because the larger SNTD between 500-200 hPa moves northward earlier, with the westerly jet in the lower troposphere over 40°-90°E appearing earlier than normal, and vice versa.展开更多
Prior to the Middle East upheavals,democratic transitions in Arab countries could be roughly divided into three stages,namely,the early constitutional reform,the third wave of democratization and democratic reforms un...Prior to the Middle East upheavals,democratic transitions in Arab countries could be roughly divided into three stages,namely,the early constitutional reform,the third wave of democratization and democratic reforms under the impact of the end of the Cold War,and during the democratization process under pressure from the US“Greater Middle East”initiative in the new century.The Middle East upheavals are part of political and social movements that involve the whole Arab world.They have not only some common features,but also huge differences;the long-standing problems in Arab countries in the political,economic and social areas are the fundamental causes of Middle East upheavals.However,in addition to this,they are also affected by the US“Greater Middle East”initiative and other external factors.Democratic reforms and transitions undoubtedly constitute an important part of the Middle East upheavals.Arab countries are currently carrying out democratic reforms,but meanwhile they are also facing many challenges.The core elements that affect the progress of democratic transitions include three factors:Islam,military intervention and geopolitical factors.With respect to the relationship between Islam and democratic transition,the conflicts between religious and secular forces will continue to have an impact on the democratic transition of the Arab countries.0n the other hand,moderate Islamic forces will explore democratization with Islamic characteristics.The relationship between Islam and democracy will be developing in diversified ways,and consecutively adjusting and remodeling.In terms of relationship between military intervention and the democratic transition,there will be a long way to eliminate the impact of military intervention in Arab countries,and a long process from the starting of democracy to democratic consolidation,and eventually to democratic functioning.This also depends on the normalization of relations between religious and secular forces after a long period of interaction and accommodation.On the relationship between geopolitics and democratic transition,complicated internal religious,sectarian and ethnic conflicts,contradictions among Arab countries,ideological competition and regional leadership competition,as well as the military intervention and exports of democracy from Western powers,have exacerbated the turbulence in the Arab democratic transition.展开更多
A study of the social development in the Middle East from the perspective of world civilization history will help us better understand the complex Middle Eastern society today and grasp the trend of its development.Th...A study of the social development in the Middle East from the perspective of world civilization history will help us better understand the complex Middle Eastern society today and grasp the trend of its development.The Middle East,which enjoys a brilliant history,declined in the modern period and is still underdeveloped today.Countries in the region are currently in a crucial period of transition-a stage of“transitional politics”toward modern democracy after they abandoned traditional centralism.Islam,which remains at a low level of secularization,has too many nonreligious functions,thus making the relationship between politics and religion even more complicated.The outdated social production mode in some Middle Eastern countries has to a large extent hindered their political,economic and religious development.The stagnated development of Islamic secularization also has affected the progress of Middle Eastern society.The Islamic reform will not only result in the self-improvement of the religion but also is bound to fuel the region’s profound social transition.展开更多
文摘Due to the symbiotic relations between oil and the contemporary Middle East, a global energy transition is bound to affect the Middle East's international status and the power structure among its countries. The power gap between rich and poor countries will widen, and the “big politics of small states” in countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar may become more prominent. As economic development has become the top priority of national strategies, many hot spots in the Middle East have cooled down as relations between rival countries have eased and there are even signs of multilateral economic cooperation. Meanwhile, there are signs of vicious economic competition among related countries. With the decline of the Middle East's global importance, the United States and Europe are moving further away while the interdependence between Asia and the Middle East is increasing. Reforms to tackle the energy transition in the Middle East are a race against time, difficult, and uncertain, but the signs so far are positive.
基金Project of Natural Science Foundation of China(41205035,40905045,40775059)National Basic Research and Development Program of China(2013CB430202)+3 种基金NSF of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(13KJB170013)Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Industries of China(GYHY201306028)Qing Lan ProjectProject Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)
文摘By using the NCEP/NCAR pentad reanalysis data from 1968 to 2009, the variation characteristics of Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and its thermal mechanism during seasonal transition are studied. Results show that the intensity and south-north location of MEJS center exhibit obvious seasonal variation characteristics. When MEJS is strong, it is at 27.5°N from the 67 th pentad to the 24 th pentad the following year; when MEJS is weak, it is at 45°N from the 38 th pentad to the 44 th pentad. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) mode of 200-hPa zonal wind field shows that MEJS is mainly over Egypt and Saudi Arabia in winter and over the eastern Black Sea and the eastern Aral Sea in summer. MEJS intensity markedly weakens in summer in comparison with that in winter. The 26th-31 st pentad is the spring-summer transition of MEJS, and the 54th-61 st pentad the autumn-winter transition. During the two seasonal transitions, the temporal variations of the 500-200 hPa south-north temperature difference(SNTD) well match with 200-hPa zonal wind velocity, indicating that the former leads to the latter following the principle of thermal wind. A case analysis shows that there is a close relation between the onset date of Indian summer monsoon and the transition date of MEJS seasonal transition. When the outbreak date of Indian summer monsoon is earlier than normal, MEJS moves northward earlier because the larger SNTD between 500-200 hPa moves northward earlier, with the westerly jet in the lower troposphere over 40°-90°E appearing earlier than normal, and vice versa.
基金the“Islamic Factors in Contemporary International Relations of the Middle East Studies”project in 2008 supported by the MOE Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences in Universities(08JJDGJW256)Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science project“Theory and Case Study of Chinese Diplomacy”(2010BGJ002)in 2010It is also supported by the Shanghai Project of First Class Disciplines:Political Science.
文摘Prior to the Middle East upheavals,democratic transitions in Arab countries could be roughly divided into three stages,namely,the early constitutional reform,the third wave of democratization and democratic reforms under the impact of the end of the Cold War,and during the democratization process under pressure from the US“Greater Middle East”initiative in the new century.The Middle East upheavals are part of political and social movements that involve the whole Arab world.They have not only some common features,but also huge differences;the long-standing problems in Arab countries in the political,economic and social areas are the fundamental causes of Middle East upheavals.However,in addition to this,they are also affected by the US“Greater Middle East”initiative and other external factors.Democratic reforms and transitions undoubtedly constitute an important part of the Middle East upheavals.Arab countries are currently carrying out democratic reforms,but meanwhile they are also facing many challenges.The core elements that affect the progress of democratic transitions include three factors:Islam,military intervention and geopolitical factors.With respect to the relationship between Islam and democratic transition,the conflicts between religious and secular forces will continue to have an impact on the democratic transition of the Arab countries.0n the other hand,moderate Islamic forces will explore democratization with Islamic characteristics.The relationship between Islam and democracy will be developing in diversified ways,and consecutively adjusting and remodeling.In terms of relationship between military intervention and the democratic transition,there will be a long way to eliminate the impact of military intervention in Arab countries,and a long process from the starting of democracy to democratic consolidation,and eventually to democratic functioning.This also depends on the normalization of relations between religious and secular forces after a long period of interaction and accommodation.On the relationship between geopolitics and democratic transition,complicated internal religious,sectarian and ethnic conflicts,contradictions among Arab countries,ideological competition and regional leadership competition,as well as the military intervention and exports of democracy from Western powers,have exacerbated the turbulence in the Arab democratic transition.
文摘A study of the social development in the Middle East from the perspective of world civilization history will help us better understand the complex Middle Eastern society today and grasp the trend of its development.The Middle East,which enjoys a brilliant history,declined in the modern period and is still underdeveloped today.Countries in the region are currently in a crucial period of transition-a stage of“transitional politics”toward modern democracy after they abandoned traditional centralism.Islam,which remains at a low level of secularization,has too many nonreligious functions,thus making the relationship between politics and religion even more complicated.The outdated social production mode in some Middle Eastern countries has to a large extent hindered their political,economic and religious development.The stagnated development of Islamic secularization also has affected the progress of Middle Eastern society.The Islamic reform will not only result in the self-improvement of the religion but also is bound to fuel the region’s profound social transition.
