Although the Zika virus is transmitted to humans primarily through the bite of infected female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes,it can also be sexually and vertically transmitted within both populations.In this study,we devel...Although the Zika virus is transmitted to humans primarily through the bite of infected female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes,it can also be sexually and vertically transmitted within both populations.In this study,we develop a new mathematical model of the Zika virus which incorporates sexual transmission in humans and mosquitos,vertical transmission in mosquitos,and mosquito to human transmission through bites.Analysis of this deterministic model shows that the secondary transmission routes of Zika increase the basic reproductive number(R0)of the virus by 5%,shift the peak time of an outbreak to occur 10%sooner,increase the initial growth of an epidemic,and have important consequences for control strategies and estimates of R0.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis show that the basic reproductive number is most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate and transmission probability parameters and reveal that the dynamics of juvenile mosquito stages greatly impact the peak time of an outbreak.These discoveries deepen our understanding of the complex transmission routes of ZIKV and the consequences that they may hold for public health officials.展开更多
基金The authors would like to thank Dr.Alun Lloyd for reviewing this work and providing valuable feedbackThis material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No.1261006320.
文摘Although the Zika virus is transmitted to humans primarily through the bite of infected female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes,it can also be sexually and vertically transmitted within both populations.In this study,we develop a new mathematical model of the Zika virus which incorporates sexual transmission in humans and mosquitos,vertical transmission in mosquitos,and mosquito to human transmission through bites.Analysis of this deterministic model shows that the secondary transmission routes of Zika increase the basic reproductive number(R0)of the virus by 5%,shift the peak time of an outbreak to occur 10%sooner,increase the initial growth of an epidemic,and have important consequences for control strategies and estimates of R0.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis show that the basic reproductive number is most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate and transmission probability parameters and reveal that the dynamics of juvenile mosquito stages greatly impact the peak time of an outbreak.These discoveries deepen our understanding of the complex transmission routes of ZIKV and the consequences that they may hold for public health officials.
