Assessing Factors Affecting the Adoption of E-Government Services in Developing Countries for Transport Sector, amidst the Covid-19 Pandemic

The study was looking at establishing factors that are affecting the adoption of electronic government services in the Developing Countries for Transport sector amidst the Covid-19 pandemic based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology Model (UTAUT). The study first looked at the major challenges faced by the Zambian transport sector in the implementation of e-government services among the citizens. The study then proposed a model through a web-based e-commerce web portal that could be adopted to address the challenges identified in the study. The study was based on all registered motor vehicles. These were from the various transport sectors in Zambia’s capital city, Lusaka. Both qualitative and quantitative data was collected from respondents using a structured questionnaire. The questionnaire was generated based on the UTAUT conceptual model. The response rate was 57% giving 141 questionnaire responses from the four transport providers. The Chi-Square test of independence was used to analyze the data using SPSS software. The results showed that interaction between trust in government and trust in the Internet has a significant effect on the utilisation of e-government services. The test had an observed P-Value of 0.05 against the Chi-Square value of 59.535. The results further showed that e-services control and effort expectancy had a significant impact on the actual utilisation of e-government services.

Simplified Equation Models for Greenhouses Gases Assessment in Road Transport Sector in Burkina Faso

Transport sector is cited among the key emitted sector.In Burkina Faso,road transport occupies more than 60%of the emissions of the entire transport sector.However,there is no model equation for greenhouse gases modelling in transport sector.A methodology combining literature review and survey has been adopted to develop the simplified model equation in transport sector.The vehicle type survey allowed the identification of the type of vehicle and the literature review allowed the identification of the key parameters used for greenhouses gases modelling.The results revealed 10 vehicle types for road transport in Burkina Faso such as:Private cars,Public Transport/Buses,Special Vehicle(Ambulances,Fire bus,Funeral vehicles),other vehicle,Motorcycles,Wheeler,Rail,Van,Lorries and Truck Tractor.The keys parameters for greenhouse gases modelling are Fleet availability,Average annual distance travelled,Fuel Economy and Fuel emission factor.For all vehicle type identified simplified model equation was developed to support Burkina Faso,assessing greenhouse gases emission in the sector of transport.This approach could be replicated in other countries in the sub-Saharan Region.

中国水运业碳排放影响因素分解与达峰情景预测

系统分析碳排放影响因素,预测碳达峰时间和峰值,对于促进中国水运业的绿色低碳发展具有重要意义。首先采用排放因子法测算水运业2001—2020年的碳排放量;其次构建LMDI分解模型分析碳排放影响因素;最后在STIRPAT模型的基础上,运用情景分析法,设定九种情景来预测2021—2035年中国水运业的碳排放峰值。结果表明:1)2001—2020年,中国水运业碳排放量整体呈上升趋势。2)经济活动是碳排放增长的首要驱动力,运输强度是其最大的抑制因素。3)不同情景下水运业碳达峰的时间和峰值存在显著差异,其中兼顾发展与减排的“中增长高减排”情景已于2019年实现碳达峰,峰值为10113.6万吨,是中国水运业的最优碳达峰情景。

交通领域碳排放核算与交易研究

交通运输行业是我国碳排放的重要领域之一,其绿色低碳转型对于行业的高质量发展、加快建设交通强国具有重要意义。文章对我国交通领域碳排放现状和交通运输行业参与碳交易市场工作的总体政策进行研究,通过分析国内和国际交通领域碳排放核算与交易案例,比较不同碳交易市场机制下交通领域碳排放核算方式和交易的差别,分析交通领域纳入碳市场的机遇和挑战,提出交通运输行业企业参与碳交易市场的多种路径和相应建议。相关研究可为建立和完善适用于我国交通运输行业和企业的碳核算标准和碳交易体系提供参考和借鉴。

Policy Options for Sustainable Development in Urban Transport:Analysis of Energy Consumption and Environmental Benefit Influenced by Different Transport Policies in Beijing

Transportation is a sector with high energy consumption as well as high emissions.Generally speaking,economic growth will inevitably lead to the increase of travel demand and vehicle population,which in turn results into the augmentation of environmental and social costs.For metropolis like Beijing under rapid development,there exist various possibilities and options for transport development policy instruments.But there is no guarantee that they will be suitable for Beijing,although they are effective in their local places.This article assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic conditions in Beijing in the future.After literature reviews on the practices of foreign policy and we established several feasible scenarios.Then,we used the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LREAP) analyzed their corresponding results of reduced energy consumption and emissions.Finally,by simulating and computing the realistic Beijing transportation scenarios,this paper scientifically assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic condition in Beijing in the coming decade.

运输行业发展之下工业经济效益的趋势研究

工业经济是发展中国家完成现代化建设的重要基础。交通运输业是西部地区经济发展的重要组成部分。为制定更加有效的经济政策,促进地区经济发展,研究探讨了运输行业发展之下工业经济效益的趋势研究。通过分析西部地区的运输行业发展和工业经济效益情况,以及探讨它们之间的关系和影响。研究发现,运输行业的发展对西部地区工业经济效益有着重要的影响,并且这种影响随着时间的推移而逐渐显现。研究将进一步深入研究这种影响,并提出相应的政策建议,以促进西部地区工业经济的持续发展。

中国交通运输碳排放效率的时空异质性及影响因素研究

基于2010—2019年中国30个省域的面板数据,运用非期望产出的超效率SBM模型测算出各省域交通运输碳排放效率,并通过时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)考察各驱动因素对交通运输碳排放效率的影响及时空异质性。结果表明:(1)中国各省域交通运输碳排放效率的时空差异明显,河北省位于生产前沿面,云南省年均增长率最高。(2)政府干预对交通运输碳排放效率的影响最大,其次是能源结构、人均GDP和能源利用效率,相比而言,人口规模和科技水平的影响程度相对较小。(3)各影响因素呈现较强的时空异质性,不同时间、地区各驱动因素的波动方向和强度并不相同。故需要综合考虑不同指标对交通运输碳排放效率影响程度的时空差异性,以促进中国交通运输业高质量发展,也为其他发展中国家提供相关借鉴。

Green Transport Infrastructure of Taiwan

Transport is the lifeblood of a nation’s economy. Since the fossil fuels are being gradually depleted and the global warming phenomena are more and more serious, this article is to construct a low-carbon transport infrastructure for Taiwan by the implementation of energy-saving measures. First of all, via data collection and analysis, we found that the small passenger cars and the large trucks are the largest energy users in the transport sector, due to their high energy intensities and large transport volumes. Therefore, their energy-conserving potentials are the focuses of this study. According to “Top-Down” methodology, the most effective and economical energy-saving strategies for Taiwan’s transport sector are the significant adoptions of rail transport and electrification mode. Whereby, under a maximal energy-saving scenario, comprising of delicate shift of transport volumes, the energy saving potential in the land transport sector of Taiwan is 4914 MLOE (million liters of oil equivalent), which is equivalent to greenhouse gas reduction of 10.56Mt-CO2e approximately with a scale of 45.3% or crediting for 4.1% reduction of national GHG emissions. Finally, we suggest the green transport infrastructure of Taiwan should be mainly comprised of rail transport, electric motorcycles, MRT (Mass Rapid Transit), and EV (Electric Vehicles).

3D Sector Optimum Partition of Airspace

A new method for sector optimum partition of airspace is proposed by dividing the fright altitude into several layers according to the distribution characteristics of the controller＇s workloads in an airspace. On the basis of the original distribution of the waypoints at each level of altitude, the sweel5 line algorithm of Voronoi diagram is used to divide them into certain polygons （ elements）, and the controller＇s workloads are calculated in each Voronoi polygon. Then by the rule about balance of controller＇s workload and by adding conditions of control handover or coordination for the sector, a mathematical model for the controller＇s workload based sector optimization is built. By the model, the Voronoi polygons are optimally partitioned. As a result, a 3D sector optimum partition of the whole airspace is formed by combining the sector optimum partitions at every layer. The actual airspace partition for Xiamen Airport has proved the reasonability and effectiveness of the 3D sector optimum partition of airspace proposed.

城市碳中和措施的边际减排成本分析--以北京市为例

城市是碳中和的主阵地,随着“双碳”目标的提出,将鼓励更多的减排技术和政策在城市低碳转型中发挥作用.基于此,本研究运用边际减排成本方法,以北京市为例,结合北京市低碳政策推广情况,对具体减排技术的减排潜力和减排成本进行分析,绘制了具有35项减排措施的北京市边际减排成本曲线,识别出有较高经济性的优先减排措施,为北京市实现碳中和目标提供技术措施优先级排序和实施路径建议.研究表明:1)筛选出的电力部门、交通部门、建筑部门减排技术的减排潜力分别为14.96亿、7.66亿、2.55亿t.平均碳边际减排成本为485.12元·t^(−1),电力部门、交通部门、建筑部门的平均减排成本为154.56、417.56、688.28元·t^(−1);北京市应大力推广电力减排措施,保证北京市碳排放进入快速下降通道;2)在35项减排措施中,11项的减排措施的边际减排成本为负,成本有效的CO_(2)减排潜力为39967万t,占39.15%;减排初期应大力推广电动出租车、电动公交车和电动轻型货车、照明节能等负成本措施;3)高边际减排成本措施的减排潜力较大,但不具有成本优势,实施难度大,为促进此类减排技术的扩散,政府可以采取一定程度的补贴或激励政策确保减排投资收益的稳定性,降低减排投资风险.

基于组合预测模型的交通碳排放量预测研究

为了构建交通碳排放量的预测模型与方法,以扬州交通碳排放量为研究对象,基于组合预测模型理论,通过赋予灰色Verhulst模型、Logistic模型、Gompertz模型不同权重系数建立最优组合预测模型。结果显示:组合预测模型的预测精度和可靠性明显高于单项预测模型,具有明显的优越性,能够较为准确地预测交通碳排放量。

ComplexTrans-Global Rail-Road Transportation System Economical and Clustered Individual and Individualised Public Transport also Prevents the Spread of Covid 19

Land transport can no longer meet the requirements.European transport can be described by these words−crowded motorways and cities,dangerous emissions,ubiquitous traffic accidents,delays,expensive railways.Solutions are being sought to transfer a large part of passengers and especially freight transport to(high-speed)rail,and efforts are moving towards electromobility,car-sharing,5G-connectivity,autonomous driving,MaaS(Mobility as a Service)-coordinated transport or hyperloop-type solutions.However,all these solutions have additional challenges and limitations.Solutions are not being searched where they really exist-in the mutual adaptation of road and rail vehicles and their deep cooperation.The ComplexTrans project shows that simply adapting the dimensions and functions of road and rail vehicles can eliminate(or at least significantly reduce)all the problems of existing land transport.The main features of the ComplexTrans system are sufficient parking spaces,reduction of urban and non-urban congestion,electric vehicles with unlimited range and cheaper than standard cars,cheaper and more accessible battery charging,“autonomous ride”,solving the overlap between passenger and freight rail transport and making it self-financing,transferring intercity freight transport to rail,replacing part of continental air transport and many others.The cost-effective and clustered individual transport and individualised public transport of the ComplexTrans system also bring very significant reductions in the risk of transmission of covid-19 and other contagious diseases during transport.

碳中和背景下中国交通部门低碳发展转型路径

基于LEAP构建中国交通部门碳减排模型(CERM-CT),包含4类228种减排技术和措施,设计基准、碳减排和深度碳减排3组情景,分析了交通部门背后的驱动因子和服务需求,并对技术措施进行了成本有效性分析,提出了中国交通部门低碳发展转型路径.结果表明,降低车辆能耗和发展新能源汽车较为成本有效,运输结构调整碳减排潜力大.碳减排情景下,交通部门长期碳排放2050年下降至4.4亿t,相比基准情景减排69.7%,较基准年碳排放减少3.3亿t,有望在2060~2070年间实现碳中和.深度碳减排情景下,交通部门2050年碳排放下降至1.9亿t,相比基准情景和碳减排情景分别减排86.9%和56.9%,较基准年和碳减排情景分别减少碳排放5.8亿t和2.5亿t,有望在2060年前实现碳中和.不断提高燃油经济性、大力推广新能源汽车、控制机动车保有量和调整交通运输结构是交通部门实现低碳发展转型的必要减排手段,分别能带来25.0%、16.7%、8.3%和50.0%的减排量.深度碳减排情景下2021~2030年和2031~2050年的低碳交通新增固定投资分别为4.2万亿和6.3万亿,平均每年0.4万亿,主要用于新建基础设施投资、终端用能设备改造、低碳技术研发等,其中新建基础设施投资占较大比例,均超过两个时间段总投资的80%.中国交通部门实现低碳发展转型需不断优化运输结构,支持新能源汽车的发展,研发低碳技术,加大对低碳基础设施和技术的投资力度.

交通运输温室气体核算边界和测算方法研究

交通运输行业是温室气体排放的主要来源之一。“双碳”目标对交通领域碳减排工作提出了更高的要求。我国交通运输行业能源消耗统计和温室气体排放测算的统计数据基础较为薄弱,目前国家层面尚未公布统一的交通运输温室气体核算方法,温室气体排放存在底数不清的问题,其核算边界、范围、方法都有待进一步明确。文中通过梳理国内外交通运输领域温室气体核算边界及测算方法,提出了适用于我国交通运输不同子领域温室气体的测算研究思路。并针对我国交通运输温室气体核算工作现存问题,从健全行业能耗与排放核算方法体系、建立交通运输能耗与碳排放数据共享机制、加强交通能耗与碳排放核算方法培训、强化数据质量管理等方面提出相应的政策建议,为我国交通运输行业温室气体排放核算工作的持续开展提供参考。

基于复杂性的多扇区移交策略优化

现有多扇区移交间隔管理研究往往忽视扇区复杂性,可能出现扇区局部复杂性不均衡等问题,对空域造成一定安全隐患。本文充分考虑多个管制扇区复杂程度,提出一种新的管制移交间隔优化方法。首先,基于扇区之间复杂性的相互影响关系,建立大型区域管制中心多扇区网络模型。其次,提出航空器进入多扇区边界时刻调整,航空器进入各个扇区时刻调整以及航空器高度层重新配备等3种策略,建立以多扇区复杂性的均值、均衡程度和航空器总延误为目标的移交策略优化模型,并采用多目标遗传算法进行求解。最后,基于北京区域管制中心(ZBAAAR)的实际运行数据进行仿真分析。结果表明:3种策略可使复杂性均值分别降低2.2%,2.8%,6.0%,可使复杂性均衡程度分别提高1.76%,1.83%,1.38%,基于航空器进入时刻控制的两种策略导致航班平均延误时间分别为-295 s和-214 s,验证了模型及算法的有效性。

京津冀交通部门的碳排放及减排潜力预测研究

交通部门是除电力和工业部门之外能源消耗与碳排放第三大的重要产业。文章应用LEAP模型构建了京津冀交通部门(道路、铁路、航空、水路)的能源与环境排放模型,预测了2019-2060年不同情景下4类交通方式的能源消耗及CO_(2)排放状况,并对比分析了4个交通部门的减排潜力。结果表明,基准情景下交通部门CO_(2)排放呈明显上升趋势,预计2030年北京市、天津市和河北省排放量将分别增长61.7%、79.9%和56.8%,2060年将分别增长275.3%、229.7%和256.9%。综合情景下预计2030年北京市、天津市和河北省CO_(2)排放量相较于基准情景将分别减排62.8%、44.0%和65.8%,可达到2030年前碳达峰的目标;2060年CO_(2)排放量将分别减少97.3%、83.9%和94.6%。优化能源结构是最有效的碳减排手段,预计2060年CO_(2)排放将减少80%左右。

碳普惠体系下减碳量方法学研究与核算--以厦门市公共交通领域为例

本文结合碳普惠制的行为引导与转化特点,以公共交通领域为切入点构建碳普惠制方法学,以期计算其真实减碳量,从而明晰碳普惠制的真实生态价值与经济价值,并以厦门市为例进行实例计算。研究结论表明,厦门市公共交通领域的潜在减碳量为151488.9吨,具有巨大的减碳潜力,但尚未得到有效挖掘。本文在拓宽碳普惠方法学边际研究范围的同时,能为厦门市碳普惠制的实施提供一定的数据支撑,也为其他的碳普惠试点的真实减碳量计算提供有益参考。

内蒙古自治区交通领域碳减排政策需求分析

为完成内蒙古自治区“十四五”节能减排目标,文章充分借鉴发达国家和国内其他行业、省市的碳减排政策,结合内蒙古自治区交通领域碳减排政策基础,将内蒙古自治区交通领域现有碳减排政策和未来政策设计划分为低碳交通装备、运输结构优化、高效运输组织、引导绿色出行、低碳基础设施、发展智能交通六大类别,分别对现有碳减排政策进行总结并分析相应的政策需求。研究表明:由于内蒙古自治区气候条件偏冷,铁路运输结构调整空间逐步减小,推广新能源运输装备潜力巨大,公共交通发展还存在一部分空间,后续相关政策应适用于内蒙古自治区特定地区,优化铁路运输结构,加强运输装备低碳化转型,加强运输组织,构建公共交通系统;此外,内蒙古自治区低碳基础设施不完善,智能交通发展速度较慢,应及时出台低碳基础设施与智能交通发展的相关政策。