Preliminary Study of Sensitive Areas for Several Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Cases in 2007

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) obtained by the ensemble-based calculation method is employed to find possible sensitive areas for improving 48-h or more than 48-h tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions in several cases affecting China in 2007. These sensitive areas are examined by observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results show that these sensitive areas improve TC track predictions for 48 h or more to different extents. Further analysis is performed to determine the distribution characteristics of sensitive areas in these cases. Results show that areas south of Luzon and over surrounding oceans are significant for 48-h or more than 48-h TC track predictions, especially 60-h to 72-h track predictions. Areas over oceans north or east to Taiwan Island seem to be secondary sensitive for 48-h or more than 48-h TC track predictions.

Cultural Practices for Edible Roses in the Open Field in Tropical Areas

The edible rose was planted on trial in Hainan under the tropical oceanic climate environment according to its botanic characteristics and growth habit. A set of cultural practices suitable for the edible rose planted in Hainan was summarized, including land selection, land preparation, variety selection, planting requirements, field management, pruning, flowering regulation, and control of pests and diseases.

Observation Research of the Turbulent Fluxes of Momentum, Sensible Heat and Latent Heat over the West Pacific Tropical Ocean Area

This paper describes results of the fluxes of momentum , sensible heat and latent heat for the West Pacific Tropical Ocean Area ( 127 ° E - 150 ° E , 5 ° N -3 ° S ). The data were collected by the small tethered balloon sounding system over this ocean area including 6 continuous stations (140 ° E. 0 ° ; 145 ° E, 0 ° ; 150 ° E, 0 ° ; 140° E, 5 ° N; 145 ° E, 5° N and 150 ° E, 5 ° N) from 11 October to 15 December, 1986 . These fluxes were calculated by the semiempirical flux-profile relationships of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory using these observed data. The results show that for this tropical ocean area the drag coefficient CD is equal to (1.53 ± 0.25) × 10 3 and the daily mean latent flux Hl is greater than its daily mean sensible flux HV by a factor of about 9.

Characteristics of change in the Antarctic sea ice area and its relation to SST in the tropical Pacific

In this paper, the characteristics of change in the Antarctic sea ice area are analysed by using the observed data from 1973 1986. The analysed results show that the monthly and annual change of the Antarctic sea ice area is obvious, the biggest change value is in 160°E 120°W and 60°W 100°E, the smallest value is in 110°E 160°E and 120°W 60°W. The relation between the Antarctic sea ice area and the Sea Surface Temperature(SST) in tropical Pacific is close, and the relation between the Antarctic sea ice area in each longitude belt and SST in tropical Pacific shows a clear difference. It is obvious that the Antarctic sea ice areas in 0° 90°E and 100°E 110°W have a different feedbacking relation with SST in the tropical Pacific. The notable relationship occurs in the 3 4 and 41 45 months, that quite tallies with the occurrence of El Nino.

Evaluating Infrared Thermal Image’s Color Palettes in Hot Tropical Area

The use of Infrared Thermal Scanners proved to be very useful in lots of applications. Using different color palettes, temperatures can be well-represented in the resulting image. However, most color palettes in hot tropical places like the Philippines are unsuitable since the ambient temperature is almost the same as the scanned object or person. This study evaluates twelve (12) known and used color palettes in the market to determine the most suitable for tropical places using the edge/border tracing algorithms Sobel-Feldman and Laplacian. The result shows that color palettes with the most colors produce more noise, making it difficult to distinguish the object scanned from the background. On the other hand, color palettes with three or fewer contrasting colors produce crisp and more detailed results. This study helps developers and researchers efficiently use color combinations suitable for hot weather for an effective thermal scanning and image representation.

Characteristics of change of the SST in the tropical western Pa-cific and the tropical Indian Ocean and its response to thechange of the Antarctic ice area

In this paper, by using ocean surface temperature data(COADS), the study is made of the characteristics of the monthly and annual changes of the SST in the tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans, which have important influences on the climate change of the whole globe and the relation between ENSO(El Nio Southern Oscillation) and the Antarctic ice area is also discussed. The result indicates that in the tropical western Pacific and the Indian Oceans the change of Sea Surface Temperture(SST) is conspicuous both monthly and annaully, and shows different change tendency between them. This result may be due to different relation in the vibration period of SST between the two Oceans. The better corresponding relationship is obvious in the annual change of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean with the occurrence El Nio and La Nia. The change of the SST in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Oceans has a close relation to the Antarctic ice area, especially to the ice areas in the eastern south Pole and Ross Sea, and its notable correlative relationship appears in 16 months when the SST of the tropical western Pacific and the Indian Oceans lag back the Antarctic ice area.

Adult Onset Still’s Disease in Tropical Area: Illustration of Diagnostic and Therapeutic Difficulties from 3 Senegaleses Observations

Introduction: The Adult Onset Still’s Disease (ASD) is a systemic auto-inflammatory affection of unknown cause seldom described in sub-Saharan Africa. We report 3 observations of ASD illustrating the diagnostic and therapeutic difficulties of this affection in our areas. Observation 1: Our first patient is a 56 years old schoolteacher presenting an ASD in its chronic articular form. She had been followed for an inflammatory arthralgia for 10 years and of the pharyngal pains without exact diagnosis. She presented ASD’s criteria of Yamaguchi and of Fautrel. The prednisone was begun at the dose of 0.8 mg/kg/day with fast appearance of a progressive muscular weakness. Use of methotrexate at a rate of 15 mg per week, associated with low dose of prednisone was effective in long-term without any flare of the disease so far. Observation 2: Our second patient is a 30 years old dressmaker presenting an ASD in its complicated systemic form of lymphohistiocytic activation syndrome. She validated the criteria of Yamaguchi and Fautrel for ASD. She also presented resistance to corticosteroid therapy. The evolution was marked by a hospital-acquired septicemia and a multi-organ failure leading to death. The diagnosis was retrospectively confirmed after that, with the low level of the glycosylated ferritin serum value. Observation 3: The third patient is a 22 years old Guinean student who presented prolonged fever and inflammatory polyarthralgia without articular deformation. He had been misdiagnosed for ASD with diagnostic wandering of several months. He was treated successfully with prednisone after set up of ASD diagnosis according common criteria. Corticosteroid therapy was stopped after 8 months without any relapse noted so far. Conclusion: Caring for ASD is difficult in our context mainly because of high cost of several explorations needed to set up its exact diagnosis while making differential one. Evolution under corticosteroid therapy is usually favorable but diagnostic delay may lead to severe complications and death.

Ecological Function Value of Tropical Forests in the Central Mountainous Areas of Hainan Island

The integrated value of the ecological function of tropical forests in the central mountainous areas of Hainan Island was 33.064 8 billion yuan/a in 2010(soil improvement,soil consolidation,soil nutrient maintenance,water storage and moisture regulation,water purification,carbon sequestration,oxygen releasing,air purification,biodiversity conservation,eco-tourism),equivalent to 16.1%of GDP in Hainan Province this year(205.212 billion yuan).The tropical forests in the central mountainous areas of Hainan Island make great contribution to Hainan Island's ecology,and play an important role in maintaining the stability of the ecological environment in Hainan Island.Through the understanding of major ecological function value of tropical forests,it is necessary to make people cherish the tropical forests in the central ecological function conservation areas of Hainan Province,and spontaneously throw themselves into the ecological environment protection and construction,to promote the rapid and sustainable development of construction in Hainan Province as an international tourism island.

The Influence of Land-Use on Water Quality in a Tropical Coastal Area: Case Study of the Keta Lagoon Complex, Ghana, West Africa

The Keta Lagoon and its catchment areas in Ghana are influenced by intensive agriculture and the use of agro-chemicals. It has therefore, become necessary to assess the quality of water in the lagoon and the surrounding fresh water aquifers. In this study, a water quality index (WQI), indicating the water quality has been adopted. The WQI was determined on a basis of various physico-chemical parameters like pH, conductivity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, calcium, magnesium, chloride, nitrates, ammonium and sodium. The index was used both for tracking changes at one site over time, and for comparisons among sites. The WQI was also employed to wells used for irrigation on farms along the Keta Sand Spit as well as that of the Keta Lagoon Complex and its surrounding floodplains, in order to ascertain the quality of water for public and livestock consumption, irrigation, recreation and other purposes. The WQI of the wells, Keta lagoon and its floodplains showed various degrees of poor water quality and therefore considered unsuitable for drinking and recreation. By WHO standards, this calls for intensive physical and chemical treatment of the water for human consumption.

Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclones to Wind Farm Operation in Northern Costal Areas of Jiangsu Province

[Objectivel The study aimed to assess the risk of tropical cyclones to wind farm operation in northem costal areas of Jiangsu Province. [Metbod] Based on tropical cyclone data during 1951 -2011 from nine national basic weather stations as well as wind data during 2005 -2007 de- termined by six gradient wind measurement towers in northern costal areas of Jiangsu Province, the spatial and temporal distribution of tropical cy- clones influencing northern coastal areas of Jiangsu Province were discussed firstly, and then the possible effects of tropical cyclones on wind farms in the northern costal areas were assessed, finally some suggestions about type selection and parameter design of wind turbines were proposed. Restult Annual average number of tropical cyclones influencing northern coastal areas of Jiangsu Province was 1.7, and the first two kinds of tropical cyclones were dominant in quantity, accounting for about 73% for total quantity. The quantity of tropical cyclones bringing substantial economic benefits to wind farms accounted for 87.7% of total quantity, with annual average quantity of 1.5. Maximum wind speed appearing every 50 years did not exceed 37.5 m/s, in accord with the national Grade-Ill standard for safe operation of wind turbines. 2.1% -3.8% of turbulence intensity ei- genvalues at a height of 70 m exceeded the maximum anti-turbulence intensity designed by IEC （0.16）, and it is suggested that anti-turbulence in- tensity parameter of wind turbines in northem costal areas of East China should be changed to 0.31 -0.41. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for design and choice of wind turbines as well as operation and management of wind farms in the study region in future.

Quantitative Evaluation of Bitterlich Sampling for Estimating Basal Area in Sparse Boreal Forests and Dense Tropical Forests

Bitterlich sampling is an extensively used technique in worldwide forest inventories. Although it has been proved that estimates of basal area from Bitterlich sampling are mathematically unbiased, its precision for individual forest stands may be fairly poor. An extension of validation efforts to different forest biomes could therefore provide more comprehensive assessment and understanding of the Bitterlich sampling technique. In this study, this technique was quantitatively evaluated by using simulated sparse boreal forests and dense tropical forests from an empirical forest structure model (EFSM). Theoretical estimation of basal areas and practical estimation influenced by the hidden-tree effect were both compared with true basal areas of the simulated forests. The evaluation results indicated that: 1) Bitterlich sampling can yield acceptable accuracy and precision when the count number (CN) of trees was set to 10 for the studied boreal and tropical forests with distinct characteristics, 2) the theoretical estimation of basal area can be improved by increasing the CN values for both forests, and 3) when the hidden-tree effect is encountered, the accuracy for tropical forests will be decreased by increasing the CN values, whereas the accuracy for boreal forests can still be improved. Accordingly, a relatively high CN, at a reasonable cost, is recommended for sparse boreal forests to improve the accuracy of basal area estimation. In contrast, for dense tropical forests, a CN of ten is appropriate to mitigate the hidden-tree effect.

Evolution of Floristic Composition and Structural Parameters between Two Management Inventories in a Tropical Forest in the East Cameroon Region

The realization of two management inventories in 2003 and 2020 on the same forest concession made it possible to characterize the floristic composition and to describe some structural parameters on three sites established according to the period of exploitation. Due to the change in the orientation of the lines, it was noted that respectively 82 and 85 species from the first inventory are not found in the second and inversely. A total of 311 species were identified in 2003, compared to 314 in 2020. The density varies from 111 to 140 stems/ha for all the individuals, 19 to 25 for the main species and 15 to 20 for the most exploited species. The decrease in the basal area between the two phases of 12% for all the species and 13% for the main species on the site exploited before the first inventory indicates a persistence of the disturbance for years after logging. It is proposed to supplement the management plans decisions with annual measures based on more complete inventories and to ensure the application of reduced impact logging measures.

热带地区油茶种质资源收集及评价

为了收集和评价中国热带地区油茶的种质资源,于2021年10月至2021年12月,在3个省(海南、广西和广东)的18个市县共收集了230份热带地区油茶(Camellia oleifera)种质资源,并对其地理分布、生存条件、形态学特征及经济性状的相关性、变异性进行了综合分析评价。结果表明:3个省18个市县的年均温度为21.2~24.3℃,年均降水量1304.2~2684.0 mm,海拔0.56~1090.00 m;油茶的伴生植物共计33种,其中被子植物共计29种。果实颜色主要以混合色为主,形状大都为似球型或桔形;其叶形指数存在明显差异。11个经济性状的变异系数在11.03%~145.10%之间,其中,叶形指数的变异系数较为稳定,而果实的果皮厚度是最重要的经济性状,它与果径、果高、鲜果质量、鲜籽重(质量)、鲜出籽率、籽数、千粒重(质量)均存在极显著正相关;果皮厚度和叶形指数存在显著相关。

全球典型热带雨林的微波散射特征建模与验证

使用大面积且均匀的自然目标进行微波散射计的定标检验,有助于客观评价微波遥感的观测精度。热带雨林具有相对稳定的植被覆盖条件,可减小地表异质性对仪器测量的影响,是微波仪器定标评价的常用目标。利用2019年1月1日—2021年12月31日Met Op-B(the second meteorological operational satellite)卫星ASCAT(advanced scatterometer)散射计的观测数据,提出平均值、标准差与相对标准差联合的雨林目标稳定区优选算法,确定亚马逊雨林、刚果雨林和东南亚雨林的稳定区域,对稳定区内目标的自身特性开展包括季节、入射角和方位角影响建模。建模时综合考虑模型误差和时序变化,将目标特性与仪器波动导致的后向散射系数变化分离。结果表明:亚马逊雨林和刚果雨林稳定区的白天数据具有较低的模型误差和波动较小的变化趋势,适用于多星散射计的定标稳定性检验。基于亚马逊雨林和刚果雨林稳定区的白天数据模型,对Met Op-C卫星的ASCAT观测数据进行定标稳定性检验和分析,检验结果表明:Met Op-C卫星ASCAT散射计的观测数据略有波动,但变化幅度小于0.05 d B,定标稳定性较好。

南部四省热带地区慢性前列腺炎中医辨证论治文献研究

目的总结南部四省热带地区慢性前列腺炎(CP)中医证型中药配伍规律。方法计算机检索数据库中关于广东、广西、云南、海南四省热带地区医家治疗CP的相关文献,将纳入文献中CP中医证型规范为湿热下注证、湿热瘀滞证、气滞血瘀证、肾阴亏虚证、肾阳不足证、肝气郁结证,提取有疗效的处方中药,采用中医传承计算平台(V3.5)分析各证型用药频数、药物归经及组方规律。结果最终纳入有效处方96首,涉及药物185味,其中湿热下注证处方33首,湿热瘀滞证处方21首,气滞血瘀证处方17首,肾阴亏虚证处方11首,肾阳不足证处方10首,肝气郁结证处方4首。结论南部四省热带地区CP的基础方为黄柏、茯苓、车前子、丹参、泽泻、牡丹皮、山药,根据不同的中医证型,辨证论治中药配伍不同。

中国岛礁区热带气旋不同空间分辨率风场模拟比较研究

中国岛礁数量众多,地形复杂,受热带气旋灾害影响大。高空间分辨率热带气旋风场模拟有助于表达风速空间异质性,对面积相对较小的岛礁地区开展高分辨率模拟具有重要意义。文章利用热带气旋路径、岛礁分布、土地覆盖以及数字高程数据,按照1000、90和30 m分辨率风场模型模拟了中国岛礁区历史热带气旋风速,分地形类型对比分析了各分辨率下岛礁模拟风速大小的差异性,并比较了不同空间分辨率热带气旋100 a一遇风速的差异。结果表明:1)30 m空间分辨率风速模拟准确率更高,模拟风速与8个站点实测风速的均方根误差为4.28 m/s,比90和1000 m模拟结果误差分别降低了0.08和1.04 m/s;2)不同空间分辨率模拟风速误差与地形类型相关,浙江省舟山市朱家尖岛90和1000 m模拟风速与30 m模拟风速的对比表明,平均风速模拟差异比例在山峰地形下分别为6.57%和7.61%,山谷地形下分别为21.28%和17.35%,峭壁地形下分别为22.85%和23.37%,且30 m模拟风速对于迎风坡与背风坡地形转换更敏感;3)对于100 a一遇热带气旋风速,30 m模拟风速会出现最大的风速值且空间差异更大。以浙江省舟山市朱家尖岛为例,1000、90、30 m分辨率下的模拟风速最大值分别为71.13、73.18和79.97 m/s,标准差分别为3.88、3.72和7.18 m/s。

海洋沉积证据在低纬过程气候变化中的应用及展望

在国内外研究的基础上,对印太暖池区的沃克环流和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、热带辐合带(ITCZ)等低纬过程的空间分布和随时间的变化规律及其研究方法进行初步归纳,并指出研究中存在的问题。本文论述了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动变率在全新世早期及中世纪气候异常期(1 000~700 a BP)的晚期逐渐增强,介绍了热带辐合带在BA暖期(B?llingAller?d Warm Period)和前北方期(pre-Boreal,10.3~9.5 ka BP)的北移,以及在新仙女木事件(Younger Dryas Event,12.5~11.5 ka BP)和北大西洋冷期(距今7.5~5 ka BP)期间的南移。对低纬过程长时间尺度轨道周期的探讨表明,末次冰盛期赤道东太平洋出现了较偏南的热带辐合带锋面系统,甚至在1.65 Ma冰期,热带辐合带也有快速南移的证据。海洋沉积的粒度、黏土矿物、陆源粉尘、元素和同位素、有孔虫分析等研究方法在推测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和热带辐合带位移中有很好的应用,建议以陆源生态系统对气候的响应为切入点、以孢粉为手段来探讨陆源植被、气候、火灾和海-陆大气环流等低纬过程的变化特征,进而反演沃克环流(或厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)演化和热带辐合带位移的影响。

建设森林防火设施对国家公园生物多样性的影响

通过现场调查与查阅文献相结合的方式,依据相关评价技术规范,评价建设森林防火设施对海南热带雨林国家公园生物多样性的影响。结果显示,建设森林防火设施对国家公园生物多样性影响指数为50.2,属于中低度影响。森林火灾高风险区综合治理建设对海南热带雨林国家公园生物多样性影响程度低。

CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IMPACTING A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN SOUTHERN FUJIAN AND ESTIMATE OF MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1949 to 2008 and following the Gumbe-Imethod, Pearson-Ⅲ method and determinacy method, this article estimates the possible minimum centralpressure of TCs affecting southern Fujian where a nuclear power will be located. Results show that theobserved minimum central pressure of TCs agrees well with the results determined with the methods aboveand there is little difference between them (the minimum central pressure is 867.4 hPa and 868.1 hPa,respectively, in a 1,000-yr return period). Established with the theory of atmospheric dynamics, thedeterminacy method yields a result of 867.28 hPa/1000 years, only a little smaller than the result of theprobability method. Because of randomicity in parameter adjustment with the Pearson-Ⅲ method whereasthe determinacy method is theoretically solid and its estimates are the smallest of the three methods, it istherefore reasonable, for security and conservative concerns, to adopt the result determined with thedeterminacy method as the possible maximum intensity of TC (with the central pressure being 867.28 hPa ina 1,000-yr return period).

Epidemiological characteristics of 168 cases of COVID-19 in Hainan Island, tropical China: A descriptive study

Objective:To understand the epidemic characters of COVID-19 epidemic in Hainan province of tropical China and provid evidences for the prevention and control of the epidemic.Methods:Data on the COVID-19 epidemic collected from Health Commission of Hainan Province were analyzed by using the methods of retrospective descriptive epidemiology.Results:From January 22nd to February 21st,2020,COVID-19 was diagnosed in 168 confirmed cases(including 8 severe cases)in Hainan Province with the temporary fatality rate of 2.38%of 4 deaths,and 96 cases discharged from hospital,with the cure rate of 57.14%.The cases were distributed in altogether 15 cities and counties in Hainan Province,among which 121 cases were distributed in Sanya,Haikou,Danzhou and Wanning,accounting for 72.02%of the total number of cases.Cases in Sanya City were mainly found in Tianya district and Jiyang district,accounting for 69.81%of the total number of cases in Sanya.Cases in Haikou City were mainly found in Qiongshan district and Xiuying district,accounting for 72.5%of the total number of cases in Haikou.Among the patients,there were 81 males and 87 females,with a male-to-female ratio of 1.1;the youngest age was 3 months,the oldest was 79 years old,80%of the patients were in the age group of 30 to 69 years old,and the number of children and adolescents under 20 years old were relatively low.Conclusion:The daily number of new confirmed cases showed a gradual downward trend in Hainan province,and the epidemic situation was in transition from imported to local renewal,mainly in close contact between family members.With the increase of personnel mobility such as the resumption of work by enterprises and the return of migrant workers to the island,there is a risk of agglomeration epidemic.Prevention and control work in urban and rural areas should take a two-pronged approach.Amid preventing imported cases,more proactive measures should be taken to prevent and control the spread of local cases.