Predicting Western Pacific Subtropical High Using a Combined Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Forecast

Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer is a critical component of rainfall forecasting during the summer flood season in China. Although many attempts have been made to predict WPSH variability, its predictability remains limited in practice due to the complexity of the WPSH evolution. Many studies have indicated that the sea surface temperature(SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant effect on WPSH variability. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to forecast the monthly variation in the WPSH during the spring and summer seasons on the basis of its relationship with SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. The forecasted SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is the predictor in this model, which differs significantly from other WPSH prediction methods. A 26-year independent hindcast experiment from 1983 to 2008 is conducted and validated in which the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is compared with that driven by the persisted SST. Results indicate that the skill score of the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is substantial.

Review on observational studies of western tropical Pacific Ocean circulation and climate

The Western Tropical Pacific(WTP) Ocean holds the largest area of warm water(>28℃) in the world ocean referred to as the Western Pacific Warm Pool(WPWP),which modulates the regional and global climate through strong atmospheric convection and its variability.The WTP is unique in terms of its complex 3-D ocean circulation system and intensive multiscale variability,making it crucial in the water and energy cycle of the global ocean.Great advances have been made in understanding the complexity of the WTP ocean circulation and associated climate impact by the international scientific community since the 1960 s through field experiments.In this study,we review the evolving insight to the 3-D structure and multi-scale variability of the ocean circulation in the WTP and their climatic impacts based on in-situ ocean observations in the past decades,with emphasis on the achievements since 2000.The challenges and open que stions remaining are reviewed as well as future plan for international study of the WTP ocean circulation and climate.

The Tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean Associated Mode Simulated by LICOM2.0

Oceanic general circulation models have become an important tool for the study of marine status and change. This paper reports a numerical simulation carried out using LICOM2.0 and the forcing field from CORE. When compared with SODA reanalysis data and ERSST.v3 b data, the patterns and variability of the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode(PIOAM) are reproduced very well in this experiment. This indicates that, when the tropical central–western Indian Ocean and central–eastern Pacific are abnormally warmer/colder, the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific are correspondingly colder/warmer. This further confirms that the tropical PIOAM is an important mode that is not only significant in the SST anomaly field, but also more obviously in the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly field. The surface associated mode index(SAMI) and the thermocline(i.e., subsurface) associated mode index(TAMI) calculated using the model output data are both consistent with the values of these indices derived from observation and reanalysis data. However, the model SAMI and TAMI are more closely and synchronously related to each other.

Physical oceanography of the Caroline M4 seamount in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean in summer 2017

Physical oceanography plays an important role in the formation of submarine sediments,and the distribution of nutriments and biocenoses in seamounts.The M4 seamount is located in the Caroline Island Ridge of the Western Pacific Ocean.The physical properties around M4 seamount are preliminarily analyzed based on the in-situ data obtained in summer 2017 in Caroline M4 seamount and open-sourced data.We found that the water in the upper 200 m is controlled by the westward North Equatorial Current(NEC),while the water between 300-1000 m is dominated by the eastward North Equatorial Undercurrent(NEUC).The current direction fluctuates significantly below 300 m at upstream stations.At the same depth of the lee sides,the current direction changes with the distance from seamount.These are likely caused by the obstacle of M4 seamount.The calculation results show that there is an anticyclonic cap above M4 seamount caused by tidal rectification.Tidal currents in M4 seamount are squeezed by the topography and amplified,and the amplified tidal currents play a dominant role in M4 seamount.First,the circulation system generated by the interaction of the amplified tidal current and M4 seamount drives the upward/downward movement of the isotherms.Secondly,the thickness of the surface turbulent layer is changed with the tidal phase.Thirdly,high turbulent diffusivities are found in the bottom of M4 seamount,and these are most likely attributed to the turbulent mixing induced by the mutual effect between semidiurnal tidal currents and steep bathymetry.This article of physical oceanography provides scientific basis for further analysis of the distribution of biological community and deposition mechanism in M4 seamount.

Relationships of Interannual Variability Between the Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Indian Ocean in 17 CMIP5 Models

Seventeen coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） are employed to assess the relationships of interannual variations of sea surface temperature （SST） between the tropical Pacific （TP） and tropical Indian Ocean （TIO）. The eastern/central equatorial Pacific features the strongest SST interannual variability in the models except for the model CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and the simulated maximum and minimum are produced by models GFDL-ESM2M and GISS-E2-H respectively. However, It remains a challenge for these models to simulate the correct climate mean SST with the warm pool-cold tongue structure in the equatorial Pacific. Almost all models reproduce E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, Indian Ocean Dipole mode （IOD） and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode （lOB） together with their seasonal phase lock features being simulated; but the relationship between the ENSO and IOD is different for different models. Consistent with the observation, an Indian Ocean basin-wide warming （cooling） takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring following an E1 Nifio （La Nifia） in almost all the models. In some models （e.g., GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5）, positive ENSO and IOB events are stronger than the negative events as shown in the observation. However, this asymmetry is reversed in some other models （e.g., HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES）.

Influence of climatic warming in the Southern and Northern Hemi-sphere on the tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean

Based on analyzing the surface air temperature series in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere and the tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific Ocean, the relationships between climatic warming and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone are investigated. The results showed that with the climatic warming in both hemispheres, the frequency of the tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean reduces and its intensity weakens simultaneously. A possible explanation might be that the cold air invasion from the Southern Hemisphere weakens due to global warming.

The Oscillation between Tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific:Evidence and Possible Impact on Winter Climate in China

This paper provides evidence that the variation of boreal winter sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific is out-of-phase with SLP fluctuation over the tropical Indian Ocean on both the interdecadal and interannual time scales.Subsequently,a SLP between tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific (TIO-NP) oscillation index is defined to indicate the variation of such out-of-phase fluctuation.Moreover,the simultaneous surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in China are closely related to TIO-NP oscillations.Below-normal surface air temperature anomalies in the northern and the eastern part of China,and less rainfall in southern China,correspond to positive TIO-NP oscillation phase with negative SLP anomalies in tropical Indian Ocean and positive anomalies in North Pacific.The TIO-NP oscillation affects China's winter climate anomalies,possibly through modulating the northeast East Asia winter monsoon.

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.

N2 fixation rate and diazotroph community structure in the western tropical North Pacific Ocean

In the present study, we report N2 fixation rate(15N isotope tracer assay) and the diazotroph community structure(using the molecular method) in the western tropical North Pacific Ocean(WTNP)(13°–20°N, 120°–160°E). Our independent evidence on the basis of both in situ N2 fixation activity and diazotroph community structure showed the dominance of unicellular N2 fixation over majority of the WTNP surface waters during the sampling periods.Moreover, a shift in the diazotrophic composition from unicellular cyanobacteria group B-dominated to Trichodesmium spp.-dominated toward the western boundary current(Kuroshio) was also observed in 2013. We hypothesize that nutrient availability may have played a major role in regulating the biogeography of N2 fixation.In surface waters, volumetric N2 fixation rate(calculated by nitrogen) ranged between 0.6 and 2.6 nmol/(L·d) and averaged(1.2±0.5) nmol/(L·d), with <10 μm size fraction contributed predominantly(88%±6%) to the total rate between 135°E and 160°E. Depth-integrated N2 fixation rate over the upper 200 m ranged between 150 μmol/(m^2·d)and 480 μmol/(m^2·d)average(225±105) μmol/(m^2·d). N2 fixation can account for 6.2%±3.7% of the depthintegrated primary production, suggesting that N2 fixation is a significant N source sustaining new and export production in the WTNP. The role of N2 fixation in biogeochemical cycling in this climate change-vulnerable region calls for further investigations.

The bacterial diversity and community composition altered in the oxygen minimum zone of the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean

The oxygen minimum zones(OMZs)are globally expanding,yet the variation pattern of microbial communities related to dissolved oxygen levels remain unclear.Spatial variability of bacterial diversity and community composition(repre sented by 16 S rRNA)of six stations was investigated within the water column in the seamount area of Tropical Western Pacific Ocean(TWPO)in May 2019.The seawater has dissolved oxygen(DO)concentration of 3.01-6.68 mg/L and the core of the oxygen minimum zones was located between the depths of 650 m and 1750 m.The bacterial alpha-diversity showed unimodal pattern with the decreasing DO with depths and peaked in the upper oxycline(UO)of OMZs.The bacterial community structure of the mixed layer(ML)and the bottom layer clustered and separated from each other,while those of UO and the OMZ core(OM)clustered and overlapped.Overall,bacterial community composition transitioned from being Alphaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria-dominant in ML to being Gammaproteobacteria and Nitrososphaeria/Deltaproteobacteria-dominant in UO and OM,and then changed to being Clostridia and unidentified Actinobacteria-dominant in the bottom layer.Moreover,both bacterial alpha-diversity and the abundant classes fitted varying sectioned functions with DO.The DO solely explained 40.37%of the variation of bacterial community composition among layers(P<0.001).The predicted function profiling showed that the water column was predominant by chemoheterotrophy,cyanobacteria,and photoautotrophy in ML,by chemoheterotrophy and nitrate/sulfide cycling in UO and OM,and by chemoheterotrophy and ferme ntation in the bottom layer.Our findings revealed the DO-associated variation in bacterial diversity and community composition,and help to clarify the potential responses of microbes and their involved biogeochemical processes to the expansion and intensification of OMZs.

AN ANALYSIS ON LARGE-SCALE AIR-SEA INTERACTIVE LINKAGES BETWEEN THE TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN AND THE PACIFIC OCEAN DURING ENSO EVENTS

By utilizing a 3-D atmospheric circulation resolving method, the authors studied the air-sea interactive linkages between the tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean in 1979-2008 E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events. Their findings showed that evident 3-D gear-coupling characteristics existed in the 1979-2008 ENSO events. Their resolving analyses also suggested that the general circulation showed stronger and wider sinking motions over the eastern Indian Ocean-western Pacific during the mature phase of 1979-2008 ENSO events, compared with the vertical velocities from the U.S. National Centers for Enviornmental Prediction （NCEP） reanalysis data. With their 3-D analysis method, the vertical velocity was resolved by two components, i.e. zonal and meridional components. It was found that the zonal component of the vertical velocities showed a strong sinking motion while the meridional components showed an upward motion during the prevailing phases of the ENSO events. In the tropics, the zonal component of the vertical velocities was found greater than the meridional component, reflecting the dominant characteristics of the vertical velocity, and the overall outcomes showed a strong sinking motion, although the two components also partially offset each other in the processes. Compared with the vertical velocities from NCEP reanalysis, the vertical motions calculated with the 3-D resolving analysis method demonstrate some advantages.

Decadal Indian Ocean Dipolar Variability and Its Relationship with the Tropical Pacific

A robust decadal Indian Ocean dipolar variability （DIOD） is identified in observations and found to be related to tropical Pacific decadal variability （TPDV）. A Pacific Ocean-global atmosphere （POGA） experiment, with fixed radiative forcing, is conducted to evaluate the DIOD variability and its relationship with the TPDV. In this experiment, the sea surface temperature anomalies are restored to observations over the tropical Pacific, but left as interactive with the atmosphere elsewhere. The TPDV-forced DIOD, represented as the ensemble mean of 10 simulations in POGA, accounts for one third of the total variance. The forced DIOD is triggered by anomalous Walker circulation in response to the TPDV and develops following Bjerknes feedback. Thermocline anomalies do not exhibit a propagating signal, indicating an absence of oceanic planetary wave adjustment in the subtropical Indian Ocean. The DIOD-TPDV correlation differs among the 10 simulations, with a low correlation corresponding to a strong internal DIOD independent of the TPDV. The variance of this internal DIOD depends on the background state in the Indian Ocean, modulated by the thermocline depth off Sumatra/Java.

Abnormality of thermal structure and current in the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean and its effect on subtropical high

-Mainly on the basis of the data obtained during PRC/US bilateral TOGA cruises, abnormal variation occurred during the 1986/1987 El Nino is shown in this paper about the thermal structure and circulation of the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean. The effects of the abmormal variation on the subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean are discussed. During the El Nino: (1) In the east part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 165° E section are taken as an example), the water wanner than 29 C in the upper layer spread on the longitudinal section and positive temperature anormalies appeared in a large area of the sea surface. (2) In the west part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 137°E section are representative ), the cross section occupied by the upper layer warmer water ( T >28 ℃ ) became shrunk, and the sea surface temperature showed negative amomalies. (3) The eastward flows in the upper layer of the 165°E section strengthened. (4)The northward flow volume of warm water from the origin area of Kuroshio, i. e. , the tropical oceanic area south of 18?0' N and from the west of 130?E to the Philippine coast, decreased. When those kinds of abnomal variation occurred, air divergence on the low level (1 000 hPa) over the Northwest Pacific Ocean was intensified, favourable to the strengthening of subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

Spring Indian Ocean–Western Pacific SST Contrast and the East Asian Summer Rainfall Anomaly

studying the relationship between SST in the tropical Indian Ocean （TIO）, tropical western Pacific （TWP）, and tropical eastern Pacific （TEP） and East Asian summer rainfall （EASR）, using data provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD and the National Climate Center of China for the period 1979-2008, an index, SSTDI, was defined to describe the SST difference between the TIO and TWP. In comparison with the winter ENSO, the spring SST contrast between the TIO and TWP was found to be more significantly associated with summer rainfall in East Asia, especially along the EASR band and in Northeast China. This spring SST contrast can persist into summer, resulting in a more significant meridional teleconnection pattern of lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific and East Asia. These circulation anomalies are dynamically consistent with the summer rainfall anomaly along the EASR band. When the SSTDI is higher （lower） than normal, the EASR over the Yangtze River valley, Korea, and central and southern Japan is heavier （less） than normal. The present results suggest that this spring SST contrast can be used as a new and better predictor of EASR anomalies.

Bottom water temperature measurements in the South China Sea,eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean

文章报道了一批新的海底底水温度(BWT)数据,其中南海(SCS)158个站位、东印度洋(EIO)30个站位及西太平洋(WPO)37个站位。基于这批新的BWT数据,获得南海和西太平洋海域底水温度与水深经验关系,可为地球物理和物理海洋提供准确、可靠的海底温度边界。这将有助于海底油气资源调查与评估。同时,这批实测数据表明:1)水深超过3500m的海域,其底水温度在南海约为2.47℃,比东印度洋(～1.34℃)和西太平洋(～1.60℃)稍微偏高。这与大洋传送带模式所预测的情况比较吻合。该模式认为:低温高盐的海水,从北大西洋格陵兰岛和冰岛附近海域下沉到深层,然后向南流动,再与南极洲周围海域的低温高盐海水一同向北进入印度洋和太平洋。而南海是一个相对比较封闭的热带边缘海,其内部海水与印度洋和菲律宾海交换有限,导致海水温度整体高于印度洋和太平洋。2)台西南盆地水深在2700～3000m的部分站位,其底水温高达约3.00℃,明显高于其周边同水深海域底水温度(平均值约为2.33℃)。这可能是台西南盆地海底水热活动导致的结果。3)在东印度洋和西太平洋水深超过4800m海域,底水温度随着水压增大稍有升高,其升高率分别为10.6mK·MPa^(-1)和12.0mK·MPa^(-1)。这与理论估算的深层底水绝热压力温度梯度范围较为吻合。这也意味着东印度洋和西太平洋深层底水,主要由绝热自压作用导致其温度随着深度的增大而升高。

The increased storage of suspended particulate matter in the upper water of the tropical Western Pacific during the 2015/2016 super El Nino event

The climate variability induced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)cycle drives significant changes in the physical state of the tropical Western Pacific,which has important impacts on the upper ocean carbon cycle.During 2015-2016,a super El Nino event occurred in the equatorial Pacific.Suspended particulate matter(SPM)data and related environmental observations in the tropical Western Pacific were obtained during two cruses in Dec.2014 and 2015,which coincided with the early and peak stages of this super El Nino event.Compared with the marine environments in the tropical Western Pacific in Dec.2014,an obviously enhanced upwelling occurred in the Mindanao Dome region;the nitrate concentration in the euphotic zone almo st tripled;and the size,mass concentration,and volume concentration of SPM obviously increased in Dec.2015.The enhanced upwelling in the Mindanao Dome region carried cold but eutrophic water upward from the deep ocean to shallow depths,even into the euphotic zone,which disrupted the previously N-limited conditions and induced a remarkable increase in phytoplankton blooms in the euphotic zone.The se results reveal the mechanism of how nutrient-limited ecosystems in the tropical Western Pacific respond to super El Nino events.In the context of the ENSO cycle,if predicted changes in biogenic particles occur,the proportion of carbon storage in the tropical Western Pacific is estimated to be increased by more than 52%,ultimately affecting the regional and possibly even global carbon cycle.This paper highlights the prospect for long-term prediction of the impact of a super El Nino event on the global carbon cycle and has profound implications for understanding El Nino events.

Characteristics of change of the SST in the tropical western Pa-cific and the tropical Indian Ocean and its response to thechange of the Antarctic ice area

In this paper, by using ocean surface temperature data(COADS), the study is made of the characteristics of the monthly and annual changes of the SST in the tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans, which have important influences on the climate change of the whole globe and the relation between ENSO(El Nio Southern Oscillation) and the Antarctic ice area is also discussed. The result indicates that in the tropical western Pacific and the Indian Oceans the change of Sea Surface Temperture(SST) is conspicuous both monthly and annaully, and shows different change tendency between them. This result may be due to different relation in the vibration period of SST between the two Oceans. The better corresponding relationship is obvious in the annual change of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean with the occurrence El Nio and La Nia. The change of the SST in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Oceans has a close relation to the Antarctic ice area, especially to the ice areas in the eastern south Pole and Ross Sea, and its notable correlative relationship appears in 16 months when the SST of the tropical western Pacific and the Indian Oceans lag back the Antarctic ice area.

Local intraseasonal air-sea relationship over the North Indian Ocean and western North Pacific during the spring-to-summer transition

This study investigates the local air-sea relationship associated with the two dominant intraseasonal oscillation（ISO） components during the spring-to-summer transition and compares their properties using multiple air-sea variables in the period 1998-2013.The amplitude of percentage variance in SST in periods of 10-20 and 30-60 days are comparable,but the locations of the maxima differ.A strong percentage variance in the 10-20-day SST is evident in the equatorial western Pacific,whereas for the 30-60-day SST the strongest ratio occurs in the North Indian Ocean（NIO）,South China Sea（SCS）,and North Pacific.Over the NIO,SCS,and Philippine Sea,there are significant correlations between SST and precipitation for both 10-20-day and 30-60-day ISOs.In contrast,the correlations between SST and surface heat fluxes cover a broader region and have larger coefficients.Thus,the atmospheric variables and surface heat fluxes show larger variations within the higher frequency band.However,the amplitude of the correlation coefficients between SST and surface heat fluxes,and SST and rainfall,is greater in the lower frequency band.The corresponding time lags for the different variables reveal that a strong local air-sea interaction is indicated over the NIO,SCS,and western North Pacific,from April to June in both timescales;however,the strength of the air-sea relationship depends on the region and variable.

Indo-Western Pacific Ocean Capacitor and Coherent Climate Anomalies in Post-ENSO Summer: A Review

ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone （AAC） is a recurrent pattern in post-E1 Nifio summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean- atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor （IPOC） effect explains why E1 Nifio stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.

Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 2018 and 2021

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 2018 and2021 were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Thus, despite being under a similar background of La Ni?a decaying year, the distinct evolutions of the IOBM, PMM, and MJO in spring and summer of 2018 and2021 were the main causes of the notable differences in TC activity over the WNP during these two summers, and the anomalies in IOBM and MJO contributed more significantly than those of the PMM.